The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima. METHODS: Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of combinations of interventions compared with the standard of care on reducing HIV incidence over a 10-year period. We simulated HIV transmission accounting for differences in sexual positioning in anal intercourse and condom use by partner type and fitted the model to HIV surveillance data using Latin hypercube sampling. The interventions we considered were 15% relative increase in condom use with clients and 10% relative increase with stable partners; increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage at CD4 count lower than 500 cells per mm3 and greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3; and 15% pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage using generic and branded formulations. We considered a basic scenario accounting for current limitations in the Peruvian HIV services and an enhanced scenario assuming achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and general improvements in HIV services. The 50 best fits according to log-likelihood were used to give the minimum and maximum values of intervention effect for each combination. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to measure the negative health outcomes associated with HIV infection that could be averted through the interventions investigated and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to compare their cost-effectiveness. FINDINGS: Under the basic scenario, combining the four interventions of increasing condom use with clients and stable partners, extending ART to people with CD4 count greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3, and 15% PrEP coverage with generic drugs would avert 47% (range 27-51) of new infections in TWSW, their clients, and their stable partners over 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$509 per DALY averted. Under the enhanced scenario, this strategy would avert 61% (44-64) of new infections among this population with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1003 per DALY averted. Under both scenarios, implementation of this strategy approaches or surpasses the 50% incidence reduction goal and would represent a cost-effective use of country resources if generic PrEP drugs are used. The total cost of implementing this strategy under the enhanced scenario would be approximately $1·2 million per year over 10 years, corresponding to 10% of the current Global Fund's yearly contribution in Peru. INTERPRETATION: Investments in HIV services among TWSW in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints. Notable improvements in HIV testing rates, innovative interventions to increase condom use, and reduced PrEP costs will be key to achieving the 50% incidence reduction goal. Modelling studies incorporating stakeholders' perspectives and health system assessments can bring added value to HIV policy making. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

HIV sero disclosure among men who have sex with men and transgender women on HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.

HIV pre-exposure prophyalxis (PrEP) might lead individuals to view serodisclosure as unnecessary. We examined the prevalence of non-disclosure and lack of knowledge of partner status in a global cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) enrolled in the iPrEx Open Label Extension (OLE). We calculated prevalence ratios by fitting a logistic model and estimating predicted probabilities using marginal standardization. Prevalence of non-disclosure and lack of knowledge of partner status were highest in Thailand (73% and 74%, respectively) and lowest in the USA (23% and 37%, respectively). In adjusted analyses, PrEP use was not significantly associated with non-disclosure or lack of knowledge of partner status (p-values>0.05). We found that relationship characteristics were significantly associated with both outcomes. Non-disclosure was higher among casual (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.54, [95% confidence interval 1.24-1.84]) and transactional sex partners (aPR 2.03, [1.44-2.62]), and among partners whom participants have known only minutes or hours before their first sexual encounter (aPR 1.62, [1.33-1.92]). Similarly, participants were less likely to know the HIV status of casual partners (aPR 1.50, [1.30-1.71]), transactional sex partners (aPR 1.62, [1.30-1.95]), and those they have known for only days or weeks (aPR 1.13, [0.99-1.27]) or minutes or hours (aPR 1.27, [1.11-1.42]). Our findings underscore the role of dyadic factors in influencing serodisclosure. Comprehensive risk reduction counseling provided in conjunction with PrEP that address relationship characteristics are needed to help patients navigate discussions around HIV status.

Towards a fair consideration of PrEP as part of combination HIV prevention in Latin America.

INTRODUCTION: Despite progress in scaling up antiretroviral treatment, HIV prevention strategies have not been successful in significantly curbing HIV incidence in Latin America. HIV prevention interventions need to be expanded to target the most affected key populations with a combination approach, including new high impact technologies. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended as additional prevention choice for individuals at higher risk of infection and could become a cost-effective prevention tool. We discuss the barriers and solutions for a fair consideration of PrEP as part of combination HIV prevention strategies in Latin America. DISCUSSION: Although demonstration projects are ongoing or being planned in a number of countries, to date no Latin American country has implemented a public PrEP programme. The knowledge of policymakers about PrEP implementation needs to be strengthened, and programmatic guidance and cost estimate tools need to be developed to support adequate planning. Despite high levels of awareness among health providers, especially if engaged in HIV or key population care, willingness to prescribe PrEP is still low due to the lack of national policies and guidelines. Key populations, especially men who have sex with men, transgender women and sex workers, have been engaged in demonstration projects, and qualitative research shows high awareness and willingness to use PrEP, especially if accessible in the public sector for free or at affordable price. Concerns of safety, adherence, effectiveness and risk compensation need to be addressed through targeted social communication strategies to improve PrEP knowledge and stimulate demand. Alliance among policymakers, civil society and representatives from key populations, healthcare providers and researchers will be critical for the design and successful implementation of PrEP demonstration projects of locally adapted delivery models. The use of mechanisms of joint negotiation and procurement of antiretrovirals could reduce costs and significantly increase the cost-effectiveness of PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP is an additional prevention tool and should be implemented in combination and synergy with other prevention interventions. PrEP programmes should target high-risk individuals from key populations for higher cost-effectiveness. Demonstration projects may generate strategic information for and lead to the implementation of full-scale PrEP programmes.

Effects of Emtricitabine/Tenofovir on Bone Mineral Density in HIV-Negative Persons in a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Daily preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with oral emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) decreases the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Initiation of TDF decreases bone mineral density (BMD) in HIV-infected people. We report the effect of FTC/TDF on BMD in HIV-seronegative men who have sex with men and in transgender women. METHODS: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was performed at baseline and 24-week intervals in a substudy of iPrEx, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of FTC/TDF PrEP. Plasma and intracellular tenofovir concentrations were measured in participants randomized to FTC/TDF. RESULTS: In 498 participants (247 FTC/TDF, 251 placebo), BMD in those randomized to FTC/TDF decreased modestly but statistically significantly by 24 weeks in the spine (net difference, -0.91% [95% confidence interval {CI}, -1.44% to -.38%]; P = .001) and hip (-0.61% [95% CI, -.96% to -.27%], P = .001). Changes within each subsequent 24-week interval were not statistically significant. Changes in BMD by week 24 correlated inversely with intracellular tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP), which was detected in 53% of those randomized to FTC/TDF. Net BMD loss by week 24 in participants with TFV-DP levels indicative of consistent dosing averaged -1.42% ± 29% and -0.85% ± 19% in the spine and hip, respectively (P < .001 vs placebo). Spine BMD tended to rebound following discontinuation of FTC/TDF. There were no differences in fractures (P = .62) or incidence of low BMD. CONCLUSIONS: In HIV-uninfected persons, FTC/TDF PrEP was associated with small but statistically significant decreases in BMD by week 24 that inversely correlated with TFV-DP, with more stable BMD thereafter. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00458393.

Changes in renal function associated with oral emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate use for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.

OBJECTIVE: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) pre-exposure prophylaxis decreases sexual acquisition of HIV infection. We sought to evaluate the renal safety of TDF in HIV-uninfected persons. DESIGN AND METHODS: The Iniciativa Profilaxis Pre-Exposición (iPrEx) study randomly assigned 2499 HIV-seronegative men and transgender women who have sex with men (MSM) to receive oral daily TDF coformulated with emtricitabine (FTC/TDF) or placebo. Serum creatinine and phosphorus during randomized treatment and after discontinuation were measured, and creatinine clearance (CrCl) was estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault equation. Indicators of proximal renal tubulopathy (fractional excretion of phosphorus and uric acid, urine protein, and glucose) were measured in a substudy. RESULTS: There was a small but statistically significant decrease in CrCl from baseline in the active arm, compared to placebo, which was first observed at week 4 (mean change: -2.4 vs. -1.1 ml/min; P=0.02), persisted through the last on-treatment visit (mean change: +0.3 vs. +1.8 ml/min; P=0.02), and resolved after stopping pre-exposure prophylaxis (mean change: -0.1 vs. 0.0 ml/min; P=0.83). The effect was confirmed when stratifying by drug detection. The effect of FTC/TDF on CrCl did not vary by race, age, or history of hypertension. There was no difference in serum phosphate trends between the treatment arms. In the substudy, two participants receiving placebo had indicators of tubulopathy. CONCLUSIONS: In HIV-seronegative MSM, randomization to FTC/TDF was associated with a very mild nonprogressive decrease in CrCl that was reversible and managed with routine serum creatinine monitoring.

Emtricitabine-tenofovir concentrations and pre-exposure prophylaxis efficacy in men who have sex with men.

Drug concentrations associated with protection from HIV-1 acquisition have not been determined. We evaluated drug concentrations among men who have sex with men in a substudy of the iPrEx trial (1). In this randomized placebo-controlled trial, daily oral doses of emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were used as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in men who have sex with men. Drug was detected less frequently in blood plasma and in viable cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in HIV-infected cases at the visit when HIV was first discovered compared with controls at the matched time point of the study (8% versus 44%; P < 0.001) and in the 90 days before that visit (11% versus 51%; P < 0.001). An intracellular concentration of the active form of tenofovir, tenofovir-diphosphate (TFV-DP), of 16 fmol per million PBMCs was associated with a 90% reduction in HIV acquisition relative to the placebo arm. Directly observed dosing in a separate study, the STRAND trial, yielded TFV-DP concentrations that, when analyzed according to the iPrEx model, corresponded to an HIV-1 risk reduction of 76% for two doses per week, 96% for four doses per week, and 99% for seven doses per week. Prophylactic benefits were observed over a range of doses and drug concentrations, suggesting ways to optimize PrEP regimens for this population.