A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic.

The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers.

Balancing Cell Populations Endowed with a Synthetic Toggle Switch via Adaptive Pulsatile Feedback Control.

The problem of controlling cells endowed with a genetic toggle switch has been recently highlighted as a benchmark problem in synthetic biology. It has been shown that a carefully selected periodic forcing can balance a population of such cells in an undifferentiated state. The effectiveness of these control strategies, however, can be hindered by the presence of stochastic perturbations and uncertainties typically observed in biological systems and is therefore not robust. Here, we propose the use of feedback control strategies to enhance robustness and performance of the balancing action by selecting in real-time both the amplitude and the duty-cycle of the pulsatile inputs affecting the toggle switch behavior. We show, viain silico experiments and realistic agent-based simulations, the effectiveness of the proposed strategies even in the presence of uncertainties, stochastic effects, cell growth, and inducer diffusion. In so doing, we confirm previous observations made in the literature about coherence of the population when pulsatile forcing inputs are used, but, contrary to what was proposed in the past, we leverage feedback control techniques to endow the balancing strategy with unprecedented robustness and stability properties. We compare viain silico experiments different external control solutions and show their advantages and limitations from an in vivo implementation viewpoint.