The incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture in Iceland and implications for FRAX.

SUMMARY: Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates. INTRODUCTION: The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX. RESULTS: The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.

Epidemiology of fractures in Iceland and secular trends in major osteoporotic fractures 1989-2008.

UNLABELLED: The incidence of the most common fracture types in Iceland is reported based on individual data from the Reykjavik Study 1967-2008. Time trend is reported for the major osteoporotic fractures (MOS) 1989-2008. INTRODUCTION: This study aims to assess the incidence of all fractures in Iceland, with emphasis on the rate of hip fractures, and compare the incidence with other populations as well as examine the secular changes. METHODS: Individuals from the prospective population-based cohort Reykjavik Study were examined between 1967 and 2008 (follow-up 26.5 years), which consisted of 9,116 men and 9,756 women born in 1907-1935, with age range 31-81 years. First fracture incidence was estimated using life table methods with age as the timescale. RESULTS: Fracture rate increased proportionally with age between the sexes for vertebral and proximal humerus but disproportionally for hip and distal forearm fractures. The ratio of first fracture incidence between the sexes varied considerably by site: 2.65 for hip fractures and the highest for distal forearm fractures at 4.83. By the age of 75, 36.7% of women and 21% of men had sustained a fracture, taking into account competing risk of death. The incidence of hip fractures was similar to results previously published from USA, Sweden, Norway, and Scotland. The incidence of MOS fractures in both sexes decreased over the last decade, except hip fractures in men, which remained unchanged, as reflected in the women/men ratio for the hip, which changed from 2.6 to 1.7. CONCLUSION: This study adds information to scarce knowledge on the relative fracture incidence of different fractures. The incidence of MOS fractures increased in the latter part of the last century in both sexes and declined during the last decade, less dramatically for men. This information is important for planning health resources.