Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation.

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.

Underestimated MJO variability in CMIP6 models.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intra-seasonal climate variability, having profound impacts on a wide range of weather and climate phenomena. Here, we use a wavelet-based spectral Principal Component Analysis (wsPCA) to evaluate the skill of 20 state-of-the-art CMIP6 models in capturing the magnitude and dynamics of the MJO. By construction, wsPCA has the ability to focus on desired frequencies and capture each propagative physical mode with one principal component (PC). We show that the MJO contribution to the total intra-seasonal climate variability is substantially underestimated in most CMIP6 models. The joint distribution of the modulus and angular frequency of the wavelet PC series associated with MJO is used to rank models relatively to the observations through the Wasserstein distance. Using Hovmöller phase-longitude diagrams, we also show that precipitation variability associated with MJO is underestimated in most CMIP6 models for the Amazonia, Southwest Africa, and Maritime Continent.

Rotated Spectral Principal Component Analysis (rsPCA) for Identifying Dynamical Modes of Variability in Climate Systems.

Spectral PCA (sPCA), in contrast to classical PCA, offers the advantage of identifying organized spatiotemporal patterns within specific frequency bands and extracting dynamical modes. However, the unavoidable trade-off between frequency resolution and robustness of the PCs leads to high sensitivity to noise and overfitting, which limits the interpretation of the sPCA results. We propose herein a simple nonparametric implementation of sPCA using the continuous analytic Morlet wavelet as a robust estimator of the cross-spectral matrices with good frequency resolution. To improve the interpretability of the results, especially when several modes of similar amplitude exist within the same frequency band, we propose a rotation of the complex-valued eigenvectors to optimize their spatial regularity (smoothness). The developed method, called rotated spectral PCA (rsPCA), is tested on synthetic data simulating propagating waves and shows impressive performance even with high levels of noise in the data. Applied to global historical geopotential height (GPH) and sea surface temperature (SST) daily time series, the method accurately captures patterns of atmospheric Rossby waves at high frequencies (3-60-day periods) in both GPH and SST and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at low frequencies (2-7-yr periodicity) in SST. At high frequencies the rsPCA successfully unmixes the identified waves, revealing spatially coherent patterns with robust propagation dynamics.

Beyond the Pixel: Using Patterns and Multiscale Spatial Information to Improve the Retrieval of Precipitation from Spaceborne Passive Microwave Imagers.

The quantitative estimation of precipitation from orbiting passive microwave imagers has been performed for more than 30 years. The development of retrieval methods consists of establishing physical or statistical relationships between the brightness temperatures (TBs) measured at frequencies between 5 and 200 GHz and precipitation. Until now, these relationships have essentially been established at the "pixel" level, associating the average precipitation rate inside a predefined area (the pixel) to the collocated multispectral radiometric measurement. This approach considers each pixel as an independent realization of a process and ignores the fact that precipitation is a dynamic variable with rich multiscale spatial and temporal organization. Here we propose to look beyond the pixel values of the TBs and show that useful information for precipitation retrieval can be derived from the variations of the observed TBs in a spatial neighborhood around the pixel of interest. We also show that considering neighboring information allows us to better handle the complex observation geometry of conical-scanning microwave imagers, involving frequency-dependent beamwidths, overlapping fields of view, and large Earth incidence angles. Using spatial convolution filters, we compute "nonlocal" radiometric parameters sensitive to spatial patterns and scale-dependent structures of the TB fields, which are the "geometric signatures" of specific precipitation structures such as convective cells. We demonstrate that using nonlocal radiometric parameters to enrich the spectral information associated to each pixel allows for reduced retrieval uncertainty (reduction of 6%-11% of the mean absolute retrieval error) in a simple k-nearest neighbors retrieval scheme.

Resolving Surface Rain from GMI High-Frequency Channels: Limits Imposed by the Three-Dimensional Structure of Precipitation.

The scattering of microwaves at frequencies between 50 and 200 GHz by ice particles in the atmosphere is an essential element in the retrieval of instantaneous surface precipitation from spaceborne passive radiometers. This paper explores how the variable distribution of solid and liquid hydrometeors in the atmospheric column over land surfaces affects the brightness temperature (TB) measured by GMI at 89 GHz through the analysis of Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) reflectivity profiles along the 89-GHz beam. The objective is to refine the statistical relations between observed TBs and surface precipitation over land and to define their limits. As GMI is scanning with a 53° Earth incident angle, the observed atmospheric volume is actually not a vertical column, which may lead to very heterogeneous and seemingly inconsistent distributions of the hydrometeors inside the beam. It is found that the 89-GHz TB is mostly sensitive to the presence of ice hydrometeors several kilometers above the 0°C isotherm, up to 10 km above the 0°C isotherm for the deepest convective systems, but is a modest predictor of the surface precipitation rate. To perform a precise mapping of atmospheric ice, the altitude of the individual ice clusters must be known. indeed, if variations in the altitude of ice are not accounted for, then the high incident angle of GMI causes a horizontal shift (parallax shift) between the estimated position of the ice clusters and their actual position. We show here that the altitude of ice clusters can be derived from the 89-GHz TB itself, allowing for correction of the parallax shift.