Dasymetric population mapping based on US census data and 30-m gridded estimates of impervious surface.

Assessment of socio-environmental problems and the search for solutions often require intersecting geospatial data on environmental factors and human population densities. In the United States, Census data is the most common source for information on population. However, timely acquisition of such data at sufficient spatial resolution can be problematic, especially in cases where the analysis area spans urban-rural gradients. With this data release, we provide a 30-m resolution population estimate for the contiguous United States. The workflow dasymetrically distributes Census block level population estimates across all non-transportation impervious surfaces within each Census block. The methodology is updatable using the most recent Census data and remote sensing-based observations of impervious surface area. The dataset, known as the U.G.L.I (updatable gridded lightweight impervious) population dataset, compares favorably against other population data sources, and provides a useful balance between resolution and complexity.

Continental scale variability of foliar nitrogen and carbon isotopes in Populus balsamifera and their relationships with climate.

Variation across climate gradients in the isotopic composition of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) in foliar tissues has the potential to reveal ecological processes related to N and water availability. However, it has been a challenge to separate spatial patterns related to direct effects of climate from effects that manifest indirectly through species turnover across climate gradients. Here we compare variation along environmental gradients in foliar N isotope (δ15N) and C isotopic discrimination (Δ13C) measured in 755 specimens of a single widely distributed tree species, Populus balsamifera, with variation represented in global databases of foliar isotopes. After accounting for mycorrhizal association, sample size, and climatic range, foliar δ15N in P. balsamifera was more weakly related to mean annual precipitation and foliar N concentration than when measured across species, yet exhibited a stronger negative effect of mean annual temperature. Similarly, the effect of precipitation and elevation on Δ13C were stronger in a global data base of foliar Δ13C samples than observed in P. balsamifera. These results suggest that processes influencing foliar δ15N and Δ13C in P. balsamifera are partially normalized across its climatic range by the habitat it occupies or by the physiology of the species itself.

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

Potential stream density in Mid-Atlantic US watersheds.

Stream network density exerts a strong influence on ecohydrologic processes in watersheds, yet existing stream maps fail to capture most headwater streams and therefore underestimate stream density. Furthermore, discrepancies between mapped and actual stream length vary between watersheds, confounding efforts to understand the impacts of land use on stream ecosystems. Here we report on research that predicts stream presence from coupled field observations of headwater stream channels and terrain variables that were calculated both locally and as an average across the watershed upstream of any location on the landscape. Our approach used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), a robust method commonly implemented to model species distributions that requires information only on the presence of the entity of interest. In validation, the method correctly predicts the presence of 86% of all 10-m stream segments and errors are low (<1%) for catchments larger than 10 ha. We apply this model to the entire Potomac River watershed (37,800 km(2)) and several adjacent watersheds to map stream density and compare our results with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). We find that NHD underestimates stream density by up to 250%, with errors being greatest in the densely urbanized cities of Washington, DC and Baltimore, MD and in regions where the NHD has never been updated from its original, coarse-grain mapping. This work is the most ambitious attempt yet to map stream networks over a large region and will have lasting implications for modeling and conservation efforts.