China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and artisanal cobalt mining from 2000 through 2020.

From 2000 through 2020, demand for cobalt to manufacture batteries grew 26-fold. Eighty-two percent of this growth occurred in China and China's cobalt refinery production increased 78-fold. Diminished industrial cobalt mine production in the early-to-mid 2000s led many Chinese companies to purchase ores from artisanal cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), many of whom have been found to be children. Despite extensive research on artisanal cobalt mining, fundamental questions about its production remain unanswered. This gap is addressed here by estimating artisanal cobalt production, processing, and trade. The results show that, while total DRC cobalt mine production grew from 11,000 metric tons (t) in 2000 to 98,000 t in 2020, artisanal production only grew from 1,000 to 2,000 t in 2000 to 9,000 to 11,000 t in 2020 (with a peak of 17,000 to 21,000 t in 2018). Artisanal production's share of world and DRC cobalt mine production peaked around 2008 at 18 to 23% and 40 to 53%, respectively, before trending down to 6 to 8% and 9 to 11% in 2020, respectively. Artisanal production was chiefly exported to China or processed within the DRC by Chinese firms. An average of 72 to 79% of artisanal production was processed at facilities within the DRC from 2016 through 2020. As such, these facilities may be potential monitoring points for artisanal production and its downstream consumers. This finding may help to support responsible sourcing initiatives and better address abuses related to artisanal cobalt mining by focusing local efforts at the artisanal processing facilities through which most artisanal cobalt production flows.

Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies.

Historically, resource conflicts have often centered on fuel minerals (particularly oil). Future resource conflicts may, however, focus more on competition for nonfuel minerals that enable emerging technologies. Whether it is rhenium in jet engines, indium in flat panel displays, or gallium in smart phones, obscure elements empower smarter, smaller, and faster technologies, and nations seek stable supplies of these and other nonfuel minerals for their industries. No nation has all of the resources it needs domestically. International trade may lead to international competition for these resources if supplies are deemed at risk or insufficient to satisfy growing demand, especially for minerals used in technologies important to economic development and national security. Here, we compare the net import reliance of China and the United States to inform mineral resource competition and foreign supply risk. Our analysis indicates that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 of 42 nonfuel minerals, compared with 24 for the United States-11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 nonfuel minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious, especially for those with highly concentrated production that prove irreplaceable in pivotal emerging technologies.