Construction and validation of serum Metabolic Risk Score for early warning of malignancy in esophagus.

Using noninvasive biomarkers to identify high-risk individuals prior to endoscopic examination is crucial for optimization of screening strategies for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We conducted a nested case-control study based on two community-based screening cohorts to evaluate the warning value of serum metabolites for esophageal malignancy. The serum samples were collected at enrollment when the cases had not been diagnosed. We identified 74 differential metabolites and two prominent perturbed metabolic pathways, and constructed Metabolic Risk Score (MRS) based on 22 selected metabolic predictors. The MRS generated an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.815. The model performed well for the within-1-year interval (AUC: 0.868) and 1-to-5-year interval (AUC: 0.845) from blood draw to diagnosis, but showed limited ability in predicting long-term cases (>5 years). In summary, the MRS could serve as a potential early warning and risk stratification tool for establishing a precision strategy of ESCC screening.

Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening on Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A 9-Year Report of the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China (ESECC) Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening against incidence of and mortality from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: From January 2012 to September 2016, we conducted a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial involving permanent residents age 45-69 years in a high-risk region for ESCC in northern China. A total of 668 targeted villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the screening group (offered Lugol's chromoendoscopy) or control group (no screening). Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality between the two groups. The per-protocol analysis adjusted for nonadherence to the screening procedure. RESULTS: A total of 33,847 participants were included in the analysis: 17,104 in the screening group, 15,165 (88.7%) of whom underwent screening, and 16,743 in the control group. During a maximum follow-up of 9 years, EC incidence in the screening and control groups were 60.9 and 72.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; mortality in the screening and control groups were 29.7 and 32.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the incidence and mortality of the screening group reduced by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.09]) and 18% (aHR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.26]), respectively, in the intention-to-treat analysis; and by 22% (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.10]) and 21% (aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.30]), respectively, in the per-protocol analysis. CONCLUSION: With a 9-year follow-up, our trial suggests that chromoendoscopic screening induces modest reductions in EC incidence and mortality. A more efficient strategy for EC screening and subsequent patient management should be established to guarantee the effectiveness of endoscopic screening.

Development and external validation of a quantitative diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions in clinical opportunistic screening: A multicenter real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical opportunistic screening is a cost-effective cancer screening modality. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use diagnostic model serving as a risk stratification tool for identification of individuals with malignant gastric lesions for opportunistic screening. METHODS: We developed a questionnaire-based diagnostic model using a joint dataset including two clinical cohorts from northern and southern China. The cohorts consisted of 17,360 outpatients who had undergone upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination in endoscopic clinics. The final model was derived based on unconditional logistic regression, and predictors were selected according to the Akaike information criterion. External validation was carried out with 32,614 participants from a community-based randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: This questionnaire-based diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions had eight predictors, including advanced age, male gender, family history of gastric cancer, low body mass index, unexplained weight loss, consumption of leftover food, consumption of preserved food, and epigastric pain. This model showed high discriminative power in the development set with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.831). External validation of the model in the general population generated an AUC of 0.696 (95% CI: 0.570-0.822). This model showed an ideal ability for enriching prevalent malignant gastric lesions when applied to various scenarios. CONCLUSION: This easy-to-use questionnaire-based model for diagnosis of prevalent malignant gastric lesions may serve as an effective prescreening tool in clinical opportunistic screening for gastric cancer.

Lugol-unstained lesions location in the esophagus affects the detection rate of malignancy: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Lugol-unstained lesion (LUL) location on the detection yield, which may help the endoscopist select targets for biopsy. METHODS: We enrolled 1064 subjects who had LULs at the baseline screening of a population-based randomized controlled trial. There were 1166 LULs with recorded location and pathologic diagnosis, and these were used for analysis. The detection rate of severe dysplasia and above (SDA) was calculated as the number of LULs identified as SDA divided by the number of LULs biopsied. Logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was applied to evaluate the association between the location of a given LUL and the risk of the LUL being SDA. RESULTS: The detection rate of SDA for LULs located in the lower, middle, and upper esophagus increased from 5.9% and 10.9% to 16.7%. LUL location was significantly associated with having SDA (adjusted odds ratio (OR)upper vs. lower  = 2.88, 95% confidential interval (CI) = 1.48-5.60; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.96-2.76), and the association was stronger in subgroups with a family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (adjusted ORupper vs. lower  = 9.72, 95% CI = 2.57-36.69; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 3.76, 95% CI = 0.93-15.21). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that more attention should be paid by endoscopists to LULs in the upper and middle esophagus, particularly for individuals with a family history of ESCC.

How should extra-large Lugol-unstained lesions of the esophagus be treated? Results from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend only severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions of the esophageal squamous epithelium for clinical intervention. However, the histopathologic diagnosis derived from tissue biopsies may be subject to underestimation of severity. METHODS: 1073 participants from whom biopsies were taken at baseline chromoendoscopic examination in a population-based screening trial were enrolled in this study. The size of the Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) was mainly analyzed. The outcome was defined as SDA lesions either identified at baseline screening, or during follow-up, collectively referred to as the cumulative risk of SDA. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-six SDA cases were identified in the study period. Participants with large LULs had a high cumulative incidence of SDA (cumulative incidence16-20mm : 55.88%; cumulative incidence>20mm : 76.92%) in the median of 7-year duration. LULs of large size were significantly associated with a higher cumulative risk of SDA, regardless of the pathologic diagnosis (adjusted OR16-20mmvs.≤5mm = 21.02, 95% CI: 7.56-58.47; adjusted OR>20mmvs.≤5mm = 33.62, 95% CI: 11.79-95.87). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest physician-patient shared decision-making regarding clinical treatment or intensive surveillance should be carried out for LULs >20 mm in the esophagus, regardless of the histologic diagnosis. For those with LULs of 16-20 mm, intensive surveillance would also best be considered.

Absence of Lugol staining indicates initiation of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A combined genomic and epidemiologic study.

The genomic characteristics during the carcinogenic process of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remain largely unknown. We report here the genomic characteristics of 106 esophageal tissues of various stages from a population-based screening cohort in China ("Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" trial) and 57 ESCC tissues from a local hospital. A significant increase in somatic mutation and copy number alterations is observed in the non-dysplastic Lugol unstaining lesions (ND-LULs). Extensive clonal expansion has emerged in the ND-LULs to an extent similar to that in higher-stage lesions. The burden of genomic alterations correlates with the size of LULs in the ND-LULs. 8-year follow-up shows that ND-LULs harbor an increased risk of progression to ESCC (adjusted IRR6-10 mm vs. none = 4.66, adjusted IRR>10 mm vs. none = 40.70), and the risk is correlated with LUL size for both non-dysplastic and dysplastic lesions. Lugol unstaining can be the initial stage in the carcinogenic process of ESCC.

Multiple Lugol-unstained lesions predict higher cumulative risk of malignance in the esophagus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The impact of the presence of multiple Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) in the esophagus on the risk of having severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions among asymptomatic individuals is unknown. METHODS: We collected demographic factors, behavioral variables, and features of LULs from 1073 participants who were biopsied at baseline endoscopic screening in a population-based screening trial, and these individuals were followed over a median time of 7 years. Outcome events were defined as SDA identified at screening, at reexamination, or during follow-up. "Multiple LULs" were defined as ≥ 2 LULs found in the entirety of the esophagus. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effect of "multiple LULs" on the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: There were 147 SDA cases in the current study. After adjustment for potential risk factors and endoscopic features of LULs, the presence of "multiple LULs" slightly increased the cumulative risk of having SDA with no statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.85, 1.88]). Further stratified analysis showed that this association was strong among subjects with small LULs (≤ 5 mm) (adjusted OR = 3.29; 95% CI [1.39, 7.79]). However, no such association was observed in subjects with larger LULs (adjusted OR = 0.99; 95% CI [0.63, 1.55], P interaction  = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of "multiple small LULs (≤ 5 mm)" in chromoendoscopy indicates a higher cumulative risk of having SDA in the esophagus. We recommend biopsies be taken and surveillance be maintained at a more active level in individuals with relatively small but multiple LULs.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial.

Background: Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective. Methods: Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties. Results: Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased. Conclusions: Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Development and External Validation of an Improved Version of the Diagnostic Model for Opportunistic Screening of Malignant Esophageal Lesions.

We aimed to develop an improved version of the diagnostic model predicting the risk of malignant esophageal lesions in opportunistic screening and validate it in external populations. The development set involved 10,595 outpatients receiving endoscopy from a hospital in Hua County, a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in northern China. Validation set A enrolled 9453 outpatients receiving endoscopy in a non-high-risk region in southern China. Validation set B involved 17,511 residents in Hua County. The improved diagnostic model consisted of seven predictors including age, gender, family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, smoking, body mass index, dysphagia, and retrosternal pain, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.860 (95% confidence interval: 0.835-0.886) in the development set. Ideal discrimination ability was achieved in external validations (AUC validation set A: 0.892, 95% confidence interval: 0.858-0.926; AUC validation set B: 0.799, 95% confidence interval: 0.705-0.894). This improved model also markedly increased the detection rate of malignant esophageal lesions compared with universal screening, demonstrating great potential for use in opportunistic screening of malignant esophageal lesions in heterogeneous populations.

Absence of NOTCH1 mutation and presence of CDKN2A deletion predict progression of esophageal lesions.

Currently, surveillance for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) runs a risk of underestimation of early lesions which show absence of iodine staining, with no or only mild histologic changes. The development of molecular markers that indicate risk of progression is thus warranted. We performed whole-exome sequencing on biopsies from two sequential endoscopies of a single esophageal lesion and matching blood samples. There were 27 pairs of age-, gender-, pathologic stage-, and sampling interval-matched progressors and non-progressors identified in a prospective community-based ESCC screening trial. Putative molecular progression markers for ESCC were first evaluated by comparing somatic mutation, copy number alteration (CNA), and mutational signature information among progressors and non-progressors. These markers were then validated with another 24 pairs of matched progressors and non-progressors from the same population using gene alteration status identified by target sequencing and quantitative PCR. Progressors had more somatic mutation and CNA burden, as well as apolipoprotein B mRNA editing catalytic polypeptide-like and age-related signature weights compared with non-progressors. A gene score consisting of somatic NOTCH1 mutation and CDKN2A deletion is predictive of risk of progression in lesions which show absence of iodine staining under endoscopy but have no or only mild dysplasia. This gene score was also validated in an external cohort of matched progressors and non-progressors. Absence of NOTCH1 mutation and presence of CDKN2A deletion are markers of progression in squamous lesions of the esophagus. This gene score would be an ideal indicator for assisting the pathologist in the identification of high-risk individuals who could be potentially 'missed' or subject to a risk underestimation by histologic analysis, and might improve the performance of ESCC surveillance. © 2022 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Update and validation of a diagnostic model to identify prevalent malignant lesions in esophagus in general population.

Background: Previous risk prediction models taking esophageal malignant lesions detected during endoscopy as the primary outcome are not always sufficient to identify prevalent cases which are "overlooked" at screening. We aimed to update and externally validate our previous risk prediction model for malignant esophageal lesions by redefining the predicted outcome. Methods: 15,192 individuals from the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China randomized controlled trial (ESECC trial, NCT01688908) were included as the training set, and 4576 participants from another population-based esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening cohort (Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study, AECCS) served as the external validation set. Lesions with severe dysplasia or worse diagnosed at chromoendoscopy or identified via follow-up within 1 year after screening were defined as main outcome. Logistic regressions were applied to reconstruct the questionnaire-based prediction model using information collected before screening, with Akaike Information Criterion to determine the model structure. Findings: The final prediction model included age and its quadratic term, family history of ESCC, low body mass index (≤22 kg/m2), use of coal or wood as main fuel for cooking, eating rapidly, and ingestion of leftover food. The area under the curve was 0·77 (95% CI: 0·73-0·80) and 0·71 (95% CI: 0·65-0·78) in the training and validation set. When screening the top 50% or 10% of high-risk individuals within population, the detection rates can be increased in both cohorts, as compared to universal screening. Interpretation: The described tool may promote the efficiency of current national screening programs for ESCC and contribute to a precision screening strategy in high-risk regions in China. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626, 81773501), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC2500405), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204) and the Beijing Nova Program (Z201100006820093). Sponsors had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation of data.

Economic Burden Conferred by Population-Level Cancer Screening on Resource-Limited Communities: Lessons From the ESECC Trial.

Objectives: Upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer screening has been conducted in China for decades. However, the economic burden for treatment "intensively" occurred in advance due to screening in resource-limited communities remain unclear. Methods: We compared the treatment costs for upper G.I. cancers from the screening and control arms of a population-based randomized trial in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer (EC) in China based on claims data from the health insurance system in the local area which included whole population coverage. Results: The average out-of-pocket cost per treatment of EC in the screening arm was lower than that in the control arm ($5,972 vs. $7,557). This difference was a consequence of down-staging from screening which resulted in lower cost therapy for earlier stage cancers. Moreover, this result is similar for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer in the two study arms ($7,933 vs. $10,605). However, three times as many (103 vs. 36) families in the screening arm suffered catastrophic health expenditure for all cancer types. The overall treatment cost for all EC patients in the screening arm ($1,045,119) was 2.44 times that in the control arm ($428,292), and the ratio for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer was 1.12 ($393,261 vs. $351,557). Conclusion: Cancer treatment secondary to screening may triple the likelihood of catastrophic patient medical expenditure, and sharply increase the economic pressure on the local community, particularly for cancer types which are of high prevalence. Financial support for patients and the health insurance system should be taken into consideration when planning budgets for cancer screening programs in communities which are resource-limited.

Association of early-life undernutrition and risk of dyslipidemia in adulthood: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association of early-life undernutrition and dyslipidemia found in previous studies may be confounded by the uncontrolled age difference between exposed and unexposed participants. The study aimed to investigate the association of early-life undernutrition and the risk of dyslipidemia in adulthood with good control of the age variable. METHODS: We took the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961) as a natural experiment of severe undernutrition. This study was based on the baseline investigation of a population-based cohort in rural China. Undernutrition in early life was defined as being exposed to famine at younger than 3 years of age. Three approaches including Adjustment, Restriction, and Matching were applied to control the confounding effect of age. Logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between early-life famine and the presence of dyslipidemia. Stratified analysis by gender was also performed, and potential effect modification was tested by adding the interaction term of the famine exposure variable and gender into the model. RESULTS: Undernutrition in early life was associated with increased risk of borderline high and above (BHA) levels of total cholesterol (TC, ORAdjustment = 1.61; ORRestriction = 1.56; ORMatching = 1.87), triglycerides (TG, ORAdjustment = 1.33; ORRestriction = 1.30; ORMatching = 1.34), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, ORAdjustment = 1.75; ORRestriction = 1.53; ORMatching = 1.77) and dyslipidemia (ORAdjustment = 1.52; ORRestriction = 1.45; ORMatching = 1.60), as well as high levels of TC, TG, LDL-C and dyslipidemia. An inverse association of undernutrition and risk of low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was found. Female participants with undernutrition experience had an increased risk of BHA TG and LDL-C (TG: ORAdjustment, female = 1.45; ORRestriction, female = 1.39; ORMatching, female = 1.51; LDL-C: ORAdjustment, female = 2.11; ORRestriction, female = 1.80; ORMatching, female = 2.15), but this association was not found in males. CONCLUSION: Early-life undernutrition increased the risk of TC, TG, LDL-C, and dyslipidemia. Gender would significantly modify this effect for TG and LDL-C. These results emphasize the importance of nutritional conditions in the early stages of life to long-term health consequences.

Health-seeking behavior and barriers to treatment of patients with upper gastrointestinal cancer detected by screening in rural China: real-world evidence from the ESECC trial.

BACKGROUND: To fully realize efficacy in cancer screening, timely and appropriate treatment for participants with malignant lesions is critical. However, the health-seeking behavior of patients with upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer identified in population-level screening programs in China is unknown. METHODS: A community-based real-world investigation was conducted with 136 upper G.I. cancer patients detected in a large screening cohort in an area of high-risk for upper G.I. cancer in China. Using local medical claims data and semi-structured face-to-face interview, we collected information regarding the clinical treatment regimen and factors which result in the lack of timely and appropriate treatment. FINDINGS: The treatment records for 133 upper G.I. cancer patients were acquired. Among these, 48 (36•09%) patients did not receive treatment within three months of initial diagnosis, and treatment of early-stage cancer was more likely to be delayed. Sixteen patients did not seek further diagnostic testing due to their low health-awareness and socio-economic status. Another 20 participants proactively sought further diagnostic evaluation in health care facilities but were prevented from receiving further treatment due to low sensitivity of given diagnostic test(s), failure to recognize the significance of screening results, and/or lack of basic knowledge of diagnosis and treatment for early cancer on the part of clinicians. The treatment regimen offered to patients depended largely on the level of health care facilities they visited, and non-medical factors were the main reasons for choice of health care facilities. INTERPRETATION: A coordinated, system-based management strategy is urgently needed to support the design of upper G.I. cancer screening programs in rural populations in China. FUNDING: The Charity Project of the National Ministry of Health (201202014), the National Key R & D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626).

Family history of esophageal cancer modifies the association of serum lipids and malignant esophageal lesions: a nested case-control study from the "Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" trial.

BACKGROUND: The association of lipids and cancer has varied greatly among different cancer types, lipid components and study populations. This study is aimed to investigate the association of serum lipids and the risk of malignant lesions in esophageal squamous epithelium. METHODS: In the "Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" (ESECC) trial, serum samples were collected and tested for total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol at the time of subject enrollment. Cases were defined as malignant esophageal lesions identified by baseline endoscopic examination or by follow-up to May 31, 2018. Controls were randomly selected using incidence density sampling in the same cohort. Conditional logistic models were applied to identify the association of serum lipids and the risk of malignant esophageal lesions. Effect modification was evaluated by testing interaction terms of the factor under assessment and these serum lipid indicators. RESULTS: No consistent association between serum lipid levels and esophageal malignant lesions were found in a pooled analysis of 211 cases and 2101 controls. For individuals with a family history of esophageal cancer (EC), high TC, and LDL-C were associated with a significantly increased risk of having malignant lesions (odds ratio [OR]High vs. Low TC = 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-4.35; ORHigh vs. Low LDL-C = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.01-3.65). However, a negative association was observed in participants without an EC family history (ORHigh vs. Low TC = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.48-0.98, Pinteraction = 0.002; ORHigh vs. Low LDL-C = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.34-0.76, Pinteraction < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that the association of serum lipids and malignant esophageal lesions might be modified by EC family history. The stratified analysis would be crucial for population-based studies investigating the association of serum lipids and cancer. The mechanism by which a family history of EC modifies this association warrants further investigation.

Estimating cancer survival and prevalence with the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS): An empirical study in China.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish a new approach for surveillance of cancer prevalence and survival in China, based on the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS). METHODS: We constructed a standard procedure for data collection, cleaning, processing, linkage, verification, analysis, and estimation of cancer prevalence and survival (including both actual observations and model estimates) by conjoint use of medical insurance claims data and all-cause death surveillance data. As a proof-of-principle study, we evaluated the performance of this surveillance approach by estimating the latest prevalence and survival for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Hua County, a high-risk region for oesophageal cancer in China. FINDINGS: In Hua County, the age-standardised relative 5-year survival was 39·2% (male: 36·8%; female: 43·6%) for oesophageal cancer and 33·3% (male: 29·6%; female: 43·4%) for stomach cancer. For oesophageal cancer, better survival was observed in patients of 45-64 years compared with national average estimates, and women of <75 years had better survival than men. The 5-year prevalence rate in Hua County was 99·8/100,000 (male: 105·9/100,000; female: 93·3/100,000) for oesophageal cancer and 41·5/100,000 (male: 57·4/100,000; female: 24·5/100,000) for stomach cancer. For both of these cancers, the prevalence burden peaked at 65-79 years. The model estimates for survival and prevalence were close to the observations in real investigation, with a relative difference of less than 4·5%. INTERPRETATION: This novel approach allows accurate estimation of cancer prevalence and survival with a short delay, which has great potential for regular use in general Chinese populations, especially those not covered by cancer registries. FUNDING: The National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626), the Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund (TKYC-GW-2020), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), and the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204).

Size of Lugol-unstained lesions as a predictor for risk of progression in premalignant lesions of the esophagus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: At present, the surveillance strategy for premalignant esophageal lesions in China is based solely on the pathologic diagnosis in Lugol's chromoendoscopy (LCE). In this study, we sought to determine the degree to which various unstained features under LCE may lead to improved ability to predict the risk of progression in esophageal lesions. METHODS: We re-examined and followed up on 1058 subjects who had Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) together with a pathologic diagnosis that was lower than severe dysplasia at baseline screening based on a population-based randomized controlled trial over a median time of 5.8 years. We established a logistic regression model and calculated the adjusted cumulative incidence of severe dysplasia or malignancy. RESULTS: LUL size was predictive of progression to malignant lesions in individuals with a nondysplastic diagnosis (adjusted odd ratio6-10 mm vs ≤5 mm, 6.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-25.7; adjusted odds ratio>10 mm vs ≤5 mm, 27.9; 95% confidence interval, 7.3-105.7), and the corresponding adjusted cumulative incidence of malignant lesions was 3.6 and 13.2 per 100 persons. This is higher than that of small (≤5 mm) lesions, which showed mild dysplasia (2.7 per 100 persons), a condition for which surveillance every 3 years is recommended. Under the current approach, 65.3% of interval cancers missed at surveillance would be detected if individuals with medium (6-10 mm) and large (>10 mm) nondysplastic LULs were additionally monitored. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a modified surveillance strategy that combines findings under LCE examination and the pathologic analysis, where follow-up endoscopy is recommended for individuals with relatively large nondysplastic lesions.

The Incidence of Lymphoma in Beijing: Comparing Results from MIS-CASS (2019) and Beijing Cancer Registry (2017).

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS) in estimating cancer incidence by comparing the results with the Beijing Cancer Registry (BCR), which is one of the highest-quality population-based cancer registries in China. METHODS: Using lymphoma as an example, we extracted relevant claims data from the administrative systems of medical insurance in Beijing (2012-2020) and estimated the most current lymphoma incidence in Beijing (2019) using a standard data processing procedure. The absolute number of new cases, crude incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate of lymphoma were compared with the latest data reported by the BCR (2017). RESULTS: Both lymphoma incidence rates and age distribution of new cases estimated based on MIS-CASS were similar to the BCR data (crude incidence rate: 9.8/100,000 vs. 10.6/100,000). However, because MIS-CASS included more designated hospitals and covered a larger local stationary population irrespective of household registration (hukou), the absolute number of incident lymphoma cases identified by MIS-CASS was 39.1% higher than that reported by the BCR (2,002 vs. 1,439). CONCLUSIONS: The MIS-CASS approach reflected the actual cancer burden in a more complete and timely manner as compared with the current BCR, providing new insights for improving cancer surveillance strategies in China.

Development and validation of a questionnaire-based risk scoring system to identify individuals at high risk for gastric cancer in Chinese populations.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to identify high-risk individuals carrying malignant lesions in stomach for tailored gastric cancer screening. METHODS: A gastric cancer risk scoring system (GC-RSS) was developed based on questionnaire-based predictors for gastric cancer derived from systematic literature review. To assess the capability of this system for discrimination, risk scores for 8,214 and 7,235 outpatient subjects accepting endoscopic examination in two endoscopy centers, and 32,630 participants in a community-based cohort in China were calculated to plot receiver operating characteristic curves and generate area under the curve (AUC). To evaluate the performance of GC-RSS, the screening proportion, sensitivity and detection rate ratio compared to universal screening were used under different risk score cutoff values. RESULTS: GC-RSS comprised nine predictors including advanced age, male gender, low body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2), family history of gastric cancer, cigarette smoking, consumption of alcohol, preference for salty food, irregularity of meals and consumption of preserved food. This tool performed well in determining the risk of malignant gastric lesions with AUCs of 0.763, 0.706 and 0.696 in three validation sets. When subjects with risk scores ≥5 were evaluated with endoscopy, nearly 50% of these endoscopies could be saved with a detection rate of over 1.5 times achieved. When the cutoff was set at 8, only about 10% of subjects with the highest risk would be offered endoscopy, and detection rates for gastric cancer could be increased 2-4 fold compared to universal screening. CONCLUSIONS: An effective questionnaire-based GC-RSS was developed and validated. This tool may play an important role in establishing a tailored screening strategy for gastric cancer in China.

An evaluation of EQ-5D-3L health utility scores using five country-specific tariffs in a rural population aged 45-69 years in Hua county, Henan province, China.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to compare the performance of the recently developed Chinese (city) tariff of the EQ-5D-3L against the UK, US, Japanese and Korean tariffs in a general rural population in China. METHODS: From November 2015 to September 2016, 12,085 permanent residents aged 45-69 from 257 villages randomly selected from Hua County, Henan Province, China, were interviewed using EQ-5D-3L, and a one-on-one questionnaire investigation was used to collect data on factors associated with HRQOL. The health utility scores were calculated using the UK, US, Japanese, Korean and Chinese (city) tariffs. The agreement, known-groups validity and sensitivity of these five tariffs were evaluated. Transition scores for pairs of observed EQ-5D-3L health states were calculated and compared. RESULTS: The Korean tariff yielded the highest mean health utility score (0.963), followed by the Chinese (city) (0.948), US (0.943), UK (0.930) and Japanese (0.921) tariffs, but the differences in the scores of any two tariffs did not exceed the MCID. The Chinese (city) tariff showed higher ICC values (ICCs> 0.89, 95% CI:0.755-0.964) and narrower limits of agreement (0.099-0.167) than the Korean tariff [(ICCs> 0.71, 95% CI:0.451-0.955); (0.146-0.253)]. The Chinese (city) tariff had a higher relative efficiency and effect size statistics in 10 out of 11 variables as compared to the UK, US and Japanese tariffs. The Chinese (city) tariff (0.215) was associated with moderate mean absolute transition scores compared with the UK (0.342), US (0.230), Japanese (0.149) and Korean (0.189) tariffs for 1485 observed pairs of the EQ-5D-3L health states. CONCLUSIONS: Health utility scores derived from the five tariffs differed. The Chinese (city) tariff was the most suitable of these tariffs and was without obvious weakness. We recommend adopting the Chinese (city) tariff when applying EQ-5D-3L to assess quality of life among the elderly in China's agricultural region with socio-economic status similar to Hua County. Results of this study had provided a crucial basis for health surveys, health promotion projects, health intervention trials, and health economic evaluation taking HRQOL as a target in rural areas of China.