Modeling the Impact of Proactive Community Case Management on Reducing Confirmed Malaria Cases in Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Malaria continues to be a major source of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Timely, accurate, and effective case management is critical to malaria control. Proactive community case management (ProCCM) is a new strategy in which a community health worker "sweeps" a village, visiting households at defined intervals to proactively provide diagnostic testing and treatment if indicated. Pilot experiments have shown the potential of ProCCM for controlling malaria transmission; identifying the best strategy for administering ProCCM in terms of interval timings and number of sweeps could lead to further reductions in malaria infections. We developed an agent-based simulation to model malaria transmission and the impact of various ProCCM strategies. The model was validated using symptomatic prevalence data from a ProCCM pilot study in Senegal. Various ProCCM strategies were tested to evaluate the potential for reducing parasitologically confirmed symptomatic malaria cases in the Senegal setting. We found that weekly ProCCM sweeps during a 21-week transmission season could reduce cases by 36.3% per year compared with no sweeps. Alternatively, two initial fortnightly sweeps, seven weekly sweeps, and finally four fortnightly sweeps (13 sweeps total) could reduce confirmed malaria cases by 30.5% per year while reducing the number of diagnostic tests and corresponding costs by about 33%. Under a highly seasonal transmission setting, starting the sweeps early with longer duration and higher frequency would increase the impact of ProCCM, though with diminishing returns. The model is flexible and allows decision-makers to evaluate implementation strategies incorporating sweep frequency, time of year, and available budget.

Predicting a kidney transplant patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information from waitlist registration.

With over 100,000 patients on the kidney transplant waitlist in 2019, it is important to understand if and how the functional status of a patient may change while on the waitlist. Recorded both at registration and just prior to transplantation, the Karnofsky Performance Score measures a patient's functional status and takes on values ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 10. Using machine learning techniques, we built a gradient boosting regression model to predict a patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information known at the time of waitlist registration. The model's predictions result in an average root mean squared error of 12.99 based on 5 rolling origin cross validations and 12.94 in a separate out-of-time test. In comparison, predicting that the pre-transplant functional status remains the same as the status at registration, results in average root mean squared errors of 14.50 and 14.11 respectively. The analysis is based on 118,401 transplant records from 2007 to 2019. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no previously published research on building a model to predict kidney pre-transplant functional status. We also find that functional status at registration and total serum albumin, have the most impact in predicting the pre-transplant functional status.

COVID-19 Scientific Publications From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January 2020-January 2022.

OBJECTIVE: High-quality scientific evidence underpins public health decision making. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agency provides scientific data, including during public health emergencies. To understand CDC's contributions to COVID-19 science, we conducted a bibliometric evaluation of publications authored by CDC scientists from January 20, 2020, through January 20, 2022, by using a quality improvement approach (SQUIRE 2.0). METHODS: We catalogued COVID-19 articles with ≥1 CDC-affiliated author published in a scientific journal and indexed in the World Health Organization's COVID-19 database. We identified priority topic areas from the agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda by using keyword scripts in EndNote and then assessed the impact of the published articles by using Scopus and Altmetric. RESULTS: During the first 2 years of the agency's pandemic response, CDC authors contributed to 1044 unique COVID-19 scientific publications in 208 journals. Publication topics included testing (n = 853, 82%); prevention strategies (n = 658, 63%); natural history, transmission, breakthrough infections, and reinfections (n = 587, 56%); vaccines (n = 567, 54%); health equity (n = 308, 30%); variants (n = 232, 22%); and post-COVID-19 conditions (n = 44, 4%). Publications were cited 40 427 times and received 81 921 news reports and 1 058 893 social media impressions. As the pandemic evolved, CDC adapted to address new scientific questions, including vaccine effectiveness, safety, and access; viral variants, including Delta and Omicron; and health equity. CONCLUSION: The agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda helped guide impactful scientific activities. CDC continues to evaluate COVID-19 priority topic areas and contribute to development of new scientific work. CDC is committed to monitoring emerging issues and addressing gaps in evidence needed to improve health.

Evaluation of different types of face masks to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a modeling study.

We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. The model was also improved to allow realistic age-structured transmission with a pre-specified R0 of transmission, and to include more compartments and parameters, e.g. for groups such as detected and undetected asymptomatic infectious cases who mask up at different rates. When masks are used at typically-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥ 65 years and 60% for those < 65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks' source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2). For variants of concern similar to omicron (B.1.1.529) or the sub-lineage BA.2, modeled reductions in effective reproduction number due to similar high quality, high prevalence mask wearing is more modest (to 3.9 and 5.0 from an R0 = 10.0 and 13.0, respectively). None-the-less, the ratio of incident risk for masked vs. non-masked populations still shows a benefit of wearing masks even with the higher R0 variants.

Theory-based Behavioral Predictors of Self-reported Use of Face Coverings in Public Settings during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Investigating antecedents of behaviors, such as wearing face coverings, is critical for developing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine associations between theory-based behavioral predictors of intention to wear a face covering and actual wearing of a face covering in public. METHODS: Data from a cross-sectional panel survey of U.S. adults conducted in May and June 2020 (N = 1,004) were used to test a theory-based behavioral path model. We (a) examined predictors of intention to wear a face covering, (b) reported use of cloth face coverings, and (c) reported use of other face masks (e.g., a surgical mask or N95 respirator) in public. RESULTS: We found that being female, perceived importance of others wanting the respondent to wear a face covering, confidence to wear a face covering, and perceived importance of personal face covering use was positively associated with intention to wear a face covering in public. Intention to wear a face covering was positively associated with self-reported wearing of a cloth face covering if other people were observed wearing cloth face coverings in public at least "rarely" (aOR = 1.43), with stronger associations if they reported "sometimes" (aOR = 1.83), "often" (aOR = 2.32), or "always" (aOR = 2.96). For other types of face masks, a positive association between intention and behavior was only present when observing others wearing face masks "often" (aOR = 1.25) or "always" (aOR = 1.48). CONCLUSIONS: Intention to wear face coverings and observing other people wearing them are important behavioral predictors of adherence to the CDC recommendation to wear face coverings in public.

Factors Associated with Cloth Face Covering Use Among Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, April and May 2020.

On April 3, 2020, the White House Coronavirus Task Force and CDC announced a new behavioral recommendation to help slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by encouraging the use of a cloth face covering when out in public (1). Widespread use of cloth face coverings has not been studied among the U.S. population, and therefore, little is known about encouraging the public to adopt this behavior. Immediately following the recommendation, an Internet survey sampled 503 adults during April 7-9 to assess their use of cloth face coverings and the behavioral and sociodemographic factors that might influence adherence to this recommendation. The same survey was administered 1 month later, during May 11-13, to another sample of 502 adults to assess changes in the prevalence estimates of use of cloth face coverings from April to May. Within days of the release of the first national recommendation for use of cloth face coverings, a majority of persons who reported leaving their home in the previous week reported using a cloth face covering (61.9%). Prevalence of use increased to 76.4% 1 month later, primarily associated with increases in use among non-Hispanic white persons (54.3% to 75.1%), persons aged ≥65 years (36.6% to 79.2%), and persons residing in the Midwest (43.7% to 73.8%). High rates were observed in April and by May, increased further among non-Hispanic black persons (74.4% to 82.3%), Hispanic or Latino persons (77.3% to 76.2%), non-Hispanic persons of other race (70.8% to 77.3%), persons aged 18-29 years (70.1% to 74.9%) and 30-39 years (73.9% to 84.4%), and persons residing in the Northeast (76.9% to 87.0%). The use of a cloth face covering was associated with theory-derived constructs that indicate a favorable attitude toward them, intention to use them, ability to use them, social support for using them, and beliefs that they offered protection for self, others, and the community. Research is needed to understand possible barriers to using cloth face coverings and ways to promote their consistent and correct use among those who have yet to adopt this behavior.

Geospatial mapping and resource utilization tool in support of a national smoke-free public housing rule.

OBJECTIVE: To advance public health support for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's smoke-free rule, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with the Georgia Institute of Technology to develop a geospatial mapping tool. The objective was to create a tool state and local public health agencies could use to tailor smoke-free educational materials and cessation interventions for specific public housing development resident populations. RESULTS: The resulting "Extinguish Tool" includes an interactive map of U.S. public housing developments (PHDs) and healthcare facilities that provides detailed information on individual PHDs, their proximity to existing healthcare facilities, and the demographic characteristics of residents. The tool also estimates the number of PHD residents who smoke cigarettes and calculates crude estimates of the potential economic benefits of providing cessation interventions to these residents. The geospatial mapping tool project serves as an example of a collaborative and innovative public health approach to protecting the health and well-being of the nation's two million public housing residents, including 760,000 children, from the harms of tobacco smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in the places where they live, play, and gather.

A mathematical model to describe survival among liver recipients from deceased donors with risk of transmitting infectious encephalitis pathogens.

BACKGROUND: Between 2002 and 2013, the organs of 13 deceased donors with infectious encephalitis were transplanted, causing infections in 23 recipients. As a consequence, organs from donors showing symptoms of encephalitis (increased probability of infectious encephalitis (IPIE) organs) might be declined. We had previously characterized the risk of IPIE organs using data available to most transplant teams and not requiring special diagnostic tests. If the probability of infection is low, the benefits of a transplant from a donor with suspected infectious encephalitis might outweigh the risk and could be lifesaving for some transplant candidates. METHODS: Using organ transplant data and Cox Proportional Hazards models, we determined liver donor and recipient characteristics predictive of post-transplant or waitlist survival and generated 5-year survival probability curves. We also calculated expected waiting times for an organ offer based on transplant candidate characteristics. Using a limited set of actual cases of infectious encephalitis transmission via transplant, we estimated post-transplant survival curves given an organ from an IPIE donor. RESULTS: 54% (1256) of patients registered from 2002-2006 who died or were removed from the waiting list because of deteriorated condition within 1 year could have had an at least marginal estimated benefit by accepting an IPIE liver with some probability of infection, with the odds increasing to 86% of patients if the probability of infection was low (5% or less). Additionally, 54% (1252) were removed from the waiting list prior to their estimated waiting time for a non-IPIE liver and could have benefited from an IPIE liver. CONCLUSION: Improved allocation and utilization of IPIE livers could be achieved by evaluating the patient-specific trade-offs between (a) accepting an IPIE liver and (b) remaining on the waitlist and accepting a non-IPIE liver after the estimated waiting time.