Predicting a kidney transplant patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information from waitlist registration.

With over 100,000 patients on the kidney transplant waitlist in 2019, it is important to understand if and how the functional status of a patient may change while on the waitlist. Recorded both at registration and just prior to transplantation, the Karnofsky Performance Score measures a patient's functional status and takes on values ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 10. Using machine learning techniques, we built a gradient boosting regression model to predict a patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information known at the time of waitlist registration. The model's predictions result in an average root mean squared error of 12.99 based on 5 rolling origin cross validations and 12.94 in a separate out-of-time test. In comparison, predicting that the pre-transplant functional status remains the same as the status at registration, results in average root mean squared errors of 14.50 and 14.11 respectively. The analysis is based on 118,401 transplant records from 2007 to 2019. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no previously published research on building a model to predict kidney pre-transplant functional status. We also find that functional status at registration and total serum albumin, have the most impact in predicting the pre-transplant functional status.

COVID-19 Scientific Publications From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January 2020-January 2022.

OBJECTIVE: High-quality scientific evidence underpins public health decision making. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agency provides scientific data, including during public health emergencies. To understand CDC's contributions to COVID-19 science, we conducted a bibliometric evaluation of publications authored by CDC scientists from January 20, 2020, through January 20, 2022, by using a quality improvement approach (SQUIRE 2.0). METHODS: We catalogued COVID-19 articles with ≥1 CDC-affiliated author published in a scientific journal and indexed in the World Health Organization's COVID-19 database. We identified priority topic areas from the agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda by using keyword scripts in EndNote and then assessed the impact of the published articles by using Scopus and Altmetric. RESULTS: During the first 2 years of the agency's pandemic response, CDC authors contributed to 1044 unique COVID-19 scientific publications in 208 journals. Publication topics included testing (n = 853, 82%); prevention strategies (n = 658, 63%); natural history, transmission, breakthrough infections, and reinfections (n = 587, 56%); vaccines (n = 567, 54%); health equity (n = 308, 30%); variants (n = 232, 22%); and post-COVID-19 conditions (n = 44, 4%). Publications were cited 40 427 times and received 81 921 news reports and 1 058 893 social media impressions. As the pandemic evolved, CDC adapted to address new scientific questions, including vaccine effectiveness, safety, and access; viral variants, including Delta and Omicron; and health equity. CONCLUSION: The agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda helped guide impactful scientific activities. CDC continues to evaluate COVID-19 priority topic areas and contribute to development of new scientific work. CDC is committed to monitoring emerging issues and addressing gaps in evidence needed to improve health.

Evaluation of different types of face masks to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a modeling study.

We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. The model was also improved to allow realistic age-structured transmission with a pre-specified R0 of transmission, and to include more compartments and parameters, e.g. for groups such as detected and undetected asymptomatic infectious cases who mask up at different rates. When masks are used at typically-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥ 65 years and 60% for those < 65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks' source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2). For variants of concern similar to omicron (B.1.1.529) or the sub-lineage BA.2, modeled reductions in effective reproduction number due to similar high quality, high prevalence mask wearing is more modest (to 3.9 and 5.0 from an R0 = 10.0 and 13.0, respectively). None-the-less, the ratio of incident risk for masked vs. non-masked populations still shows a benefit of wearing masks even with the higher R0 variants.

Theory-based Behavioral Predictors of Self-reported Use of Face Coverings in Public Settings during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Investigating antecedents of behaviors, such as wearing face coverings, is critical for developing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine associations between theory-based behavioral predictors of intention to wear a face covering and actual wearing of a face covering in public. METHODS: Data from a cross-sectional panel survey of U.S. adults conducted in May and June 2020 (N = 1,004) were used to test a theory-based behavioral path model. We (a) examined predictors of intention to wear a face covering, (b) reported use of cloth face coverings, and (c) reported use of other face masks (e.g., a surgical mask or N95 respirator) in public. RESULTS: We found that being female, perceived importance of others wanting the respondent to wear a face covering, confidence to wear a face covering, and perceived importance of personal face covering use was positively associated with intention to wear a face covering in public. Intention to wear a face covering was positively associated with self-reported wearing of a cloth face covering if other people were observed wearing cloth face coverings in public at least "rarely" (aOR = 1.43), with stronger associations if they reported "sometimes" (aOR = 1.83), "often" (aOR = 2.32), or "always" (aOR = 2.96). For other types of face masks, a positive association between intention and behavior was only present when observing others wearing face masks "often" (aOR = 1.25) or "always" (aOR = 1.48). CONCLUSIONS: Intention to wear face coverings and observing other people wearing them are important behavioral predictors of adherence to the CDC recommendation to wear face coverings in public.

Factors Associated with Cloth Face Covering Use Among Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, April and May 2020.

On April 3, 2020, the White House Coronavirus Task Force and CDC announced a new behavioral recommendation to help slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by encouraging the use of a cloth face covering when out in public (1). Widespread use of cloth face coverings has not been studied among the U.S. population, and therefore, little is known about encouraging the public to adopt this behavior. Immediately following the recommendation, an Internet survey sampled 503 adults during April 7-9 to assess their use of cloth face coverings and the behavioral and sociodemographic factors that might influence adherence to this recommendation. The same survey was administered 1 month later, during May 11-13, to another sample of 502 adults to assess changes in the prevalence estimates of use of cloth face coverings from April to May. Within days of the release of the first national recommendation for use of cloth face coverings, a majority of persons who reported leaving their home in the previous week reported using a cloth face covering (61.9%). Prevalence of use increased to 76.4% 1 month later, primarily associated with increases in use among non-Hispanic white persons (54.3% to 75.1%), persons aged ≥65 years (36.6% to 79.2%), and persons residing in the Midwest (43.7% to 73.8%). High rates were observed in April and by May, increased further among non-Hispanic black persons (74.4% to 82.3%), Hispanic or Latino persons (77.3% to 76.2%), non-Hispanic persons of other race (70.8% to 77.3%), persons aged 18-29 years (70.1% to 74.9%) and 30-39 years (73.9% to 84.4%), and persons residing in the Northeast (76.9% to 87.0%). The use of a cloth face covering was associated with theory-derived constructs that indicate a favorable attitude toward them, intention to use them, ability to use them, social support for using them, and beliefs that they offered protection for self, others, and the community. Research is needed to understand possible barriers to using cloth face coverings and ways to promote their consistent and correct use among those who have yet to adopt this behavior.

Geospatial mapping and resource utilization tool in support of a national smoke-free public housing rule.

OBJECTIVE: To advance public health support for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's smoke-free rule, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with the Georgia Institute of Technology to develop a geospatial mapping tool. The objective was to create a tool state and local public health agencies could use to tailor smoke-free educational materials and cessation interventions for specific public housing development resident populations. RESULTS: The resulting "Extinguish Tool" includes an interactive map of U.S. public housing developments (PHDs) and healthcare facilities that provides detailed information on individual PHDs, their proximity to existing healthcare facilities, and the demographic characteristics of residents. The tool also estimates the number of PHD residents who smoke cigarettes and calculates crude estimates of the potential economic benefits of providing cessation interventions to these residents. The geospatial mapping tool project serves as an example of a collaborative and innovative public health approach to protecting the health and well-being of the nation's two million public housing residents, including 760,000 children, from the harms of tobacco smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in the places where they live, play, and gather.

A mathematical model to describe survival among liver recipients from deceased donors with risk of transmitting infectious encephalitis pathogens.

BACKGROUND: Between 2002 and 2013, the organs of 13 deceased donors with infectious encephalitis were transplanted, causing infections in 23 recipients. As a consequence, organs from donors showing symptoms of encephalitis (increased probability of infectious encephalitis (IPIE) organs) might be declined. We had previously characterized the risk of IPIE organs using data available to most transplant teams and not requiring special diagnostic tests. If the probability of infection is low, the benefits of a transplant from a donor with suspected infectious encephalitis might outweigh the risk and could be lifesaving for some transplant candidates. METHODS: Using organ transplant data and Cox Proportional Hazards models, we determined liver donor and recipient characteristics predictive of post-transplant or waitlist survival and generated 5-year survival probability curves. We also calculated expected waiting times for an organ offer based on transplant candidate characteristics. Using a limited set of actual cases of infectious encephalitis transmission via transplant, we estimated post-transplant survival curves given an organ from an IPIE donor. RESULTS: 54% (1256) of patients registered from 2002-2006 who died or were removed from the waiting list because of deteriorated condition within 1 year could have had an at least marginal estimated benefit by accepting an IPIE liver with some probability of infection, with the odds increasing to 86% of patients if the probability of infection was low (5% or less). Additionally, 54% (1252) were removed from the waiting list prior to their estimated waiting time for a non-IPIE liver and could have benefited from an IPIE liver. CONCLUSION: Improved allocation and utilization of IPIE livers could be achieved by evaluating the patient-specific trade-offs between (a) accepting an IPIE liver and (b) remaining on the waitlist and accepting a non-IPIE liver after the estimated waiting time.

Quantifying the risk of undetected HIV, hepatitis B virus, or hepatitis C virus infection in Public Health Service increased risk donors.

To reduce the risk of HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission through organ transplantation, donors are universally screened for these infections by nucleic acid tests (NAT). Deceased organ donors are classified as "increased risk" if they engaged in specific behaviors during the 12 months before death. We developed a model to estimate the risk of undetected infection for HIV, HBV, and HCV among NAT-negative donors specific to the type and timing of donors' potential risk behavior to guide revisions to the 12-month timeline. Model parameters were estimated, including risk of disease acquisition for increased risk groups, number of virions that multiply to establish infection, virus doubling time, and limit of detection by NAT. Monte Carlo simulation was performed. The risk of undetected infection was <1/1 000 000 for HIV after 14 days, for HBV after 35 days, and for HCV after 7 days from the time of most recent potential exposure to the day of a negative NAT. The period during which reported donor risk behaviors result in an "increased risk" designation can be safely shortened.

Using machine learning and an ensemble of methods to predict kidney transplant survival.

We used an ensemble of statistical methods to build a model that predicts kidney transplant survival and identifies important predictive variables. The proposed model achieved better performance, measured by Harrell's concordance index, than the Estimated Post Transplant Survival model used in the kidney allocation system in the U.S., and other models published recently in the literature. The model has a five-year concordance index of 0.724 (in comparison, the concordance index is 0.697 for the Estimated Post Transplant Survival model, the state of the art currently in use). It combines predictions from random survival forests with a Cox proportional hazards model. The rankings of importance for the model's variables differ by transplant recipient age. Better survival predictions could eventually lead to more efficient allocation of kidneys and improve patient outcomes.

Assessment of risk for transplant-transmissible infectious encephalitis among deceased organ donors.

BACKGROUND: There were 13 documented clusters of infectious encephalitis transmission via organ transplant from deceased donors to recipients during 2002-2013. Hence, organs from donors diagnosed with encephalitis are often declined because of concerns about the possibility of infection, given that there is no quick and simple test to detect causes of infectious encephalitis. METHODS: We constructed a database containing cases of infectious and non-infectious encephalitis. Using statistical imputation, cross-validation, and regression techniques, we determined deceased organ donor characteristics, including demographics, signs, symptoms, physical exam, and laboratory findings, predictive of infectious vs non-infectious encephalitis, and developed a calculator which assesses the risk of infection. RESULTS: Using up to 12 predictive patient characteristics (with a minimum of 3, depending on what information is available), the calculator provides the probability that a donor may have infectious vs non-infectious encephalitis, improving the prediction accuracy over current practices. These characteristics include gender, fever, immunocompromised state (other than HIV), cerebrospinal fluid elevation, altered mental status, psychiatric features, cranial nerve abnormality, meningeal signs, focal motor weakness, Babinski's sign, movement disorder, and sensory abnormalities. CONCLUSION: In the absence of definitive diagnostic testing in a potential organ donor, infectious encephalitis can be predicted with a risk score. The risk calculator presented in this paper represents a prototype, establishing a framework that can be expanded to other infectious diseases transmissible through solid organ transplantation.

A model to estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C infection despite negative nucleic acid testing among increased-risk organ donors.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, guidelines were released for reducing the risk of viral bloodborne pathogen transmission through organ transplantation. Eleven criteria were described that result in a donor being designated at increased infectious risk. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk from an increased-risk donor (IRD), despite negative nucleic acid testing (NAT), likely varies based on behavior type and timing. METHODS: We developed a Monte Carlo risk model to quantify probability of HIV among IRDs. The model included NAT performance, viral load dynamics, and per-act risk of acquiring HIV by each behavior. The model also quantifies the probability of HCV among IRDs by non-medical intravenous drug use (IVDU). RESULTS: Highest risk is among donors with history of unprotected, receptive anal male-to-male intercourse with partner of unknown HIV status (MSM), followed by sex with an HIV-infected partner, IVDU, and sex with a commercial sex worker. CONCLUSION: With NAT screening, the estimated risk of undetected HIV remains small even at 1 day following a risk behavior. The estimated risk for HCV transmission through IVDU is likewise small and decreases quicker with time owing to the faster viral growth dynamics of HCV compared with HIV. These findings may allow for improved organ allocation, utilization, and recipient informed consent.

Randomization modeling to ascertain clustering patterns of human papillomavirus types detected in cervicovaginal samples in the United States.

Detection of multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types in the genital tract is common. Associations among HPV types may impact HPV vaccination modeling and type replacement. The objectives were to determine the distribution of concurrent HPV type infections in cervicovaginal samples and examine type-specific associations. We analyzed HPV genotyping results from 32,245 cervicovaginal specimens collected from women aged 11 to 83 years in the United States from 2001 through 2011. Statistical power was enhanced by combining 6 separate studies. Expected concurrent infection frequencies from a series of permutation models, each with increasing fidelity to the real data, were compared with the observed data. Statistics were computed based on the distributional properties of the randomized data. Concurrent detection occurred more than expected with 0 or ≥3 HPV types and less than expected with 1 and 2 types. Some women bear a disproportionate burden of the HPV type prevalence. Type associations were observed that exceeded multiple hypothesis corrected significance. Multiple HPV types were detected more frequently than expected by chance and associations among particular HPV types were detected. However vaccine-targeted types were not specifically affected, supporting the expectation that current bivalent/quadrivalent HPV vaccination will not result in type replacement with other high-risk types.

Are endosomal trafficking parameters better targets for improving mAb pharmacokinetics than FcRn binding affinity?

F.W.R. Brambell deduced the existence of a protective receptor for IgG, the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn), long before its discovery in the early to mid-1990s. With the coincident, explosive development of IgG-based drugs, FcRn became a popular target for tuning the pharmacokinetics of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). One aspect of Brambell's initial observation, however, that is seldom discussed since the discovery of the receptor, is the compliance in the mechanism that Brambell observed (saturating at 10s-100s of µM concentration), vs. the comparative stiffness of the receptor kinetics (saturating in the nM range for most species). Although some studies reported that increasing the already very high Fc-FcRn affinity at pH 6.0 further improved mAb half-life, in fact the results were mixed, with later studies increasingly implicating non-FcRn-dependent mechanisms as determinants of mAb pharmacokinetics. Mathematical modelling of the FcRn system has also indicated that the processes determining the pharmacokinetics of mAbs have more nuances than had at first been hypothesised. We propose, in keeping with the latest modelling and experimental evidence reviewed here, that the dynamics of endosomal sorting and trafficking have important roles in the compliant salvage mechanism that Brambell first observed nearly 50 years ago, and therefore also in the pharmacokinetics of mAbs. These ideas lead to many open questions regarding the endosomal trafficking of both FcRn and mAbs and also to what properties of a mAb can be altered to achieve an improvement in pharmacokinetics.

Multiscale analysis of heart rate variability in non-stationary environments.

Heart rate variability (HRV) is highly non-stationary, even if no perturbing influences can be identified during the recording of the data. The non-stationarity becomes more profound when HRV data are measured in intrinsically non-stationary environments, such as social stress. In general, HRV data measured in such situations are more difficult to analyze than those measured in constant environments. In this paper, we analyze HRV data measured during a social stress test using two multiscale approaches, the adaptive fractal analysis (AFA) and scale-dependent Lyapunov exponent (SDLE), for the purpose of uncovering differences in HRV between chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) patients and their matched-controls. CFS is a debilitating, heterogeneous illness with no known biomarker. HRV has shown some promise recently as a non-invasive measure of subtle physiological disturbances and trauma that are otherwise difficult to assess. If the HRV in persons with CFS are significantly different from their healthy controls, then certain cardiac irregularities may constitute good candidate biomarkers for CFS. Our multiscale analyses show that there are notable differences in HRV between CFS and their matched controls before a social stress test, but these differences seem to diminish during the test. These analyses illustrate that the two employed multiscale approaches could be useful for the analysis of HRV measured in various environments, both stationary and non-stationary.

Pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modelling of monoclonal antibodies.

Development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and their functional derivatives represents a growing segment of the development pipeline in the pharmaceutical industry. More than 25 mAbs and derivatives have been approved for a variety of therapeutic applications. In addition, around 500 mAbs and derivatives are currently in different stages of development. mAbs are considered to be large molecule therapeutics (in general, they are 2-3 orders of magnitude larger than small chemical molecule therapeutics), but they are not just big chemicals. These compounds demonstrate much more complex pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic behaviour than small molecules. Because of their large size and relatively poor membrane permeability and instability in the conditions of the gastrointestinal tract, parenteral administration is the most usual route of administration. The rate and extent of mAb distribution is very slow and depends on extravasation in tissue, distribution within the particular tissue, and degradation. Elimination primarily happens via catabolism to peptides and amino acids. Although not definitive, work has been published to define the human tissues mainly involved in the elimination of mAbs, and it seems that many cells throughout the body are involved. mAbs can be targeted against many soluble or membrane-bound targets, thus these compounds may act by a variety of mechanisms to achieve their pharmacological effect. mAbs targeting soluble antigen generally exhibit linear elimination, whereas those targeting membrane-bound antigen often exhibit non-linear elimination, mainly due to target-mediated drug disposition (TMDD). The high-affinity interaction of mAbs and their derivatives with the pharmacological target can often result in non-linear pharmacokinetics. Because of species differences (particularly due to differences in target affinity and abundance) in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of mAbs, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling of mAbs has been used routinely to expedite the development of mAbs and their derivatives and has been utilized to help in the selection of appropriate dose regimens. Although modelling approaches have helped to explain variability in both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of these drugs, there is a clear need for more complex models to improve understanding of pharmacokinetic processes and pharmacodynamic interactions of mAbs with the immune system. There are different approaches applied to physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling of mAbs and important differences between the models developed. Some key additional features that need to be accounted for in PBPK models of mAbs are neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn; an important salvage mechanism for antibodies) binding, TMDD and lymph flow. Several models have been described incorporating some or all of these features and the use of PBPK models are expected to expand over the next few years.

Sensitive and specific peak detection for SELDI-TOF mass spectrometry using a wavelet/neural-network based approach.

SELDI-TOF mass spectrometer's compact size and automated, high throughput design have been attractive to clinical researchers, and the platform has seen steady-use in biomarker studies. Despite new algorithms and preprocessing pipelines that have been developed to address reproducibility issues, visual inspection of the results of SELDI spectra preprocessing by the best algorithms still shows miscalled peaks and systematic sources of error. This suggests that there continues to be problems with SELDI preprocessing. In this work, we study the preprocessing of SELDI in detail and introduce improvements. While many algorithms, including the vendor supplied software, can identify peak clusters of specific mass (or m/z) in groups of spectra with high specificity and low false discover rate (FDR), the algorithms tend to underperform estimating the exact prevalence and intensity of peaks in those clusters. Thus group differences that at first appear very strong are shown, after careful and laborious hand inspection of the spectra, to be less than significant. Here we introduce a wavelet/neural network based algorithm which mimics what a team of expert, human users would call for peaks in each of several hundred spectra in a typical SELDI clinical study. The wavelet denoising part of the algorithm optimally smoothes the signal in each spectrum according to an improved suite of signal processing algorithms previously reported (the LibSELDI toolbox under development). The neural network part of the algorithm combines those results with the raw signal and a training dataset of expertly called peaks, to call peaks in a test set of spectra with approximately 95% accuracy. The new method was applied to data collected from a study of cervical mucus for the early detection of cervical cancer in HPV infected women. The method shows promise in addressing the ongoing SELDI reproducibility issues.

Entropies of negative incomes, Pareto-distributed loss, and financial crises.

Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective "spatial" and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990-2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors.

Functional genomics of serotonin receptor 2A (HTR2A): interaction of polymorphism, methylation, expression and disease association.

Serotonergic neurotransmission plays a key role in the pathophysiology of neuropsychiatric illnesses. The functional significance of a promoter polymorphism, -1438G/A (rs6311), in one of the major genes of this system (serotonin receptor 2A, HTR2A) remains poorly understood in the context of epigenetic factors, transcription factors and endocrine influences. We used functional and structural equation modeling (SEM) approaches to assess the contributions of the polymorphism (rs6311), DNA methylation and clinical variables to HTR2A expression in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) subjects from a population-based study. HTR2A was up-regulated in CFS through allele-specific expression modulated by transcription factors at critical sites in its promoter: an E47 binding site at position -1,438, (created by the A-allele of rs6311 polymorphism), a glucocorticoid receptor (GR) binding site encompassing a CpG at position -1,420, and Sp1 binding at CpG methylation site -1,224. Methylation at -1,420 was strongly correlated with methylation at -1,439, a CpG site that is dependent upon the G-allele of rs6311 at position -1,438. SEM revealed a strong negative interaction between E47 and GR binding (in conjunction with cortisol level) on HTR2A expression. This study suggests that the promoter polymorphism (rs6311) can affect both transcription factor binding and promoter methylation, and this along with an individual's stress response can impact the rate of HTR2A transcription in a genotype and methylation-dependent manner. This study can serve as an example for deciphering the molecular determinants of transcriptional regulation of major genes of medical importance by integrating functional genomics and SEM approaches. Confirmation in an independent study population is required.