Effects of plant diversity on productivity strengthen over time due to trait-dependent shifts in species overyielding.

Plant diversity effects on community productivity often increase over time. Whether the strengthening of diversity effects is caused by temporal shifts in species-level overyielding (i.e., higher species-level productivity in diverse communities compared with monocultures) remains unclear. Here, using data from 65 grassland and forest biodiversity experiments, we show that the temporal strength of diversity effects at the community scale is underpinned by temporal changes in the species that yield. These temporal trends of species-level overyielding are shaped by plant ecological strategies, which can be quantitatively delimited by functional traits. In grasslands, the temporal strengthening of biodiversity effects on community productivity was associated with increasing biomass overyielding of resource-conservative species increasing over time, and with overyielding of species characterized by fast resource acquisition either decreasing or increasing. In forests, temporal trends in species overyielding differ when considering above- versus belowground resource acquisition strategies. Overyielding in stem growth decreased for species with high light capture capacity but increased for those with high soil resource acquisition capacity. Our results imply that a diversity of species with different, and potentially complementary, ecological strategies is beneficial for maintaining community productivity over time in both grassland and forest ecosystems.

Feedback loops drive ecological succession: towards a unified conceptual framework.

The core principle shared by most theories and models of succession is that, following a major disturbance, plant-environment feedback dynamics drive a directional change in the plant community. The most commonly studied feedback loops are those in which the regrowth of the plant community causes changes to the abiotic (e.g. soil nutrients) or biotic (e.g. dispersers) environment, which differentially affect species availability or performance. This, in turn, leads to shifts in the species composition of the plant community. However, there are many other PE feedback loops that potentially drive succession, each of which can be considered a model of succession. While plant-environment feedback loops in principle generate predictable successional trajectories, succession is generally observed to be highly variable. Factors contributing to this variability are the stochastic processes involved in feedback dynamics, such as individual mortality and seed dispersal, and extrinsic causes of succession, which are not affected by changes in the plant community but do affect species performance or availability. Both can lead to variation in the identity of dominant species within communities. This, in turn, leads to further contingencies if these species differ in their effect on their environment (priority effects). Predictability and variability are thus intrinsically linked features of ecological succession. We present a new conceptual framework of ecological succession that integrates the propositions discussed above. This framework defines seven general causes: landscape context, disturbance and land-use, biotic factors, abiotic factors, species availability, species performance, and the plant community. When involved in a feedback loop, these general causes drive succession and when not, they are extrinsic causes that create variability in successional trajectories and dynamics. The proposed framework provides a guide for linking these general causes into causal pathways that represent specific models of succession. Our framework represents a systematic approach to identifying the main feedback processes and causes of variation at different successional stages. It can be used for systematic comparisons among study sites and along environmental gradients, to conceptualise studies, and to guide the formulation of research questions and design of field studies. Mapping an extensive field study onto our conceptual framework revealed that the pathways representing the study's empirical outcomes and conceptual model had important differences, underlining the need to move beyond the conceptual models that currently dominate in specific fields and to find ways to examine the importance of and interactions among alternative causal pathways of succession. To further this aim, we argue for integrating long-term studies across environmental and anthropogenic gradients, combined with controlled experiments and dynamic modelling.

High intraspecific growth variability despite strong evolutionary legacy in an Amazonian forest.

Tree growth is key to species performance. However, individual growth variability within species remains underexplored for a whole community, and the role of species evolutionary legacy and local environments remains unquantified. Based on 36 years of diameter records for 7961 trees from 138 species, we assessed individual growth across an Amazonian forest. We related individual growth to taxonomy, topography and neighbourhood, before exploring species growth link to functional traits and distribution along the phylogeny. We found most variation in growth among individuals within species, even though taxonomy explained a third of the variation. Species growth was phylogenetically conserved up to the genus. Traits of roots, wood and leaves were good predictors of growth, suggesting their joint selection during convergent evolutions. Neighbourhood crowding significantly decreased individual growth, although much of inter-individual variation remains unexplained. The high intraspecific variation observed could allow individuals to respond to the heterogeneous environments of Amazonian forests.

Rooting depth and xylem vulnerability are independent woody plant traits jointly selected by aridity, seasonality, and water table depth.

Evolutionary radiations of woody taxa within arid environments were made possible by multiple trait innovations including deep roots and embolism-resistant xylem, but little is known about how these traits have coevolved across the phylogeny of woody plants or how they jointly influence the distribution of species. We synthesized global trait and vegetation plot datasets to examine how rooting depth and xylem vulnerability across 188 woody plant species interact with aridity, precipitation seasonality, and water table depth to influence species occurrence probabilities across all biomes. Xylem resistance to embolism and rooting depth are independent woody plant traits that do not exhibit an interspecific trade-off. Resistant xylem and deep roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, seasonal climates over deep water tables. Resistant xylem and shallow roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, nonseasonal climates over deep water tables. Vulnerable xylem and deep roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, nonseasonal climates over shallow water tables. Lastly, vulnerable xylem and shallow roots increase occurrence probabilities in humid climates. Each combination of trait values optimizes occurrence probabilities in unique environmental conditions. Responses of deeply rooted vegetation may be buffered if evaporative demand changes faster than water table depth under climate change.

Thresholds for persistent leaf photochemical damage predict plant drought resilience in a tropical rainforest.

Water stress can cause declines in plant function that persist after rehydration. Recent work has defined 'resilience' traits characterizing leaf resistance to persistent damage from drought, but whether these traits predict resilience in whole-plant function is unknown. It is also unknown whether the coordination between resilience and 'resistance' - the ability to maintain function during drought - observed globally occurs within ecosystems. For eight rainforest species, we dehydrated and subsequently rehydrated leaves, and measured water stress thresholds for declines in rehydration capacity and maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv /Fm ). We tested correlations with embolism resistance and dry season water potentials (ΨMD ), and calculated safety margins for damage (ΨMD - thresholds) and tested correlations with drought resilience in sap flow and growth. Ψ thresholds for persistent declines in Fv /Fm , indicating resilience, were positively correlated with ΨMD and thresholds for leaf vein embolism. Safety margins for persistent declines in Fv /Fm , but not rehydration capacity, were positively correlated with drought resilience in sap flow. Correlations between resistance and resilience suggest that species' differences in performance during drought are perpetuated after drought, potentially accelerating shifts in forest composition. Resilience to photochemical damage emerged as a promising functional trait to characterize whole-plant drought resilience.

Global patterns of vascular plant alpha diversity.

Global patterns of regional (gamma) plant diversity are relatively well known, but whether these patterns hold for local communities, and the dependence on spatial grain, remain controversial. Using data on 170,272 georeferenced local plant assemblages, we created global maps of alpha diversity (local species richness) for vascular plants at three different spatial grains, for forests and non-forests. We show that alpha diversity is consistently high across grains in some regions (for example, Andean-Amazonian foothills), but regional 'scaling anomalies' (deviations from the positive correlation) exist elsewhere, particularly in Eurasian temperate forests with disproportionally higher fine-grained richness and many African tropical forests with disproportionally higher coarse-grained richness. The influence of different climatic, topographic and biogeographical variables on alpha diversity also varies across grains. Our multi-grain maps return a nuanced understanding of vascular plant biodiversity patterns that complements classic maps of biodiversity hotspots and will improve predictions of global change effects on biodiversity.

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers.

Wood Nutrient-Water-Density Linkages Are Influenced by Both Species and Environment.

Tropical trees store a large amount of nutrients in their woody tissues, thus triggering the question of what the functional association of these elements with other wood traits is. Given the osmotic activity of mineral elements such as potassium, sodium, and calcium, these elements should be strong candidates in mediating the water storing capacity in tropical trees. We investigated the role of wood nutrients in facilitating wood water storage in trees by using branch samples from 48 tropical tree species in South America and examined their associations with wood density (ρ). Wood density varied from 316 kg/m3 in Peru plots, where the soil nutrient status is relatively higher, to 908 kg/m3 in Brazil plots, where the nutrient availability is lower. Phosphorus content in wood varied significantly between plots with lowest values found in French Guiana (1.2 mol/m3) and plots with highest values found in Peru (43.6 mol/m3). Conversely, potassium in woody tissues showed a significant cross-species variation with Minquartia guianensis in Brazil showing the lowest values (8.8 mol/m3) and with Neea divaricata in Peru having the highest values (114 mol/m3). We found that lower wood density trees store more water in their woody tissues with cations, especially potassium, having a positive association with water storage. Specific relationships between wood cation concentrations and stem water storage potential nevertheless depend on both species' identity and growing location. Tropical trees with increased water storage capacity show lower wood density and have an increased reliance on cations to regulate this reservoir. Our study highlights that cations play a more important role in tropical tree water relations than has previously been thought, with potassium being particularly important.

Selection in space and time: Individual tree growth is adapted to tropical forest gap dynamics.

Tropical forest dynamics are driven by growth and survival strategies of tree species in relation to treefall gaps; however, the ecological and evolutionary roles of intraspecific variation in the response to forest gaps remain unexplored. Here, we associated genomic data of three related tree species of the genus Symphonia in a French Guiana forest with (1) each individual tree's growth potential, and (2) with its light and competition environment estimated based on 33 years of forest monitoring in plots covering 120 ha. We show that individual trees within species have genetically determined growth strategies that are adapted to the local light and competition environments, which are shaped by the time since the last treefall. Within species, fast-growing genotypes are more frequent in light-enriched environments and slow-growing genotypes in more shaded environments. Forest gap dynamics is thus a strong selection driver that shapes adaptive strategies and maintains genetic variation within tropical tree species.

30 Years of postdisturbance recruitment in a Neotropical forest.

QUESTIONS: Long-term community response to disturbance can follow manifold successional pathways depending on the interplay between various recruitment processes. Analyzing the succession of recruited communities provides a long-term perspective on forest response to disturbance. Specifically, postdisturbance recruitment trajectories assess (a) the successive phases of postdisturbance response and the role of deterministic recruitment processes, and (b) the return to predisturbance state of recruits taxonomic/functional diversity/composition. LOCATION: Amazonian rainforest, Paracou station, French Guiana. METHODS: We analyzed trajectories of recruited tree communities, from twelve forest plots of 6.25 ha each, during 30 years following a disturbance gradient that ranged from 10% to 60% of aboveground biomass removed. We measured recruited community taxonomic composition turnover, compared to whole predisturbance community, and assessed their functional composition by measuring the community weighted means for seven leaf, stem, and life-history functional traits. We also measured recruited community taxonomic richness, taxonomic evenness, and functional diversity and compared them to the diversity values from a random recruitment process. RESULTS: While control plots trajectories resembled random recruitment trajectories, postdisturbance trajectories diverged significantly. This divergence corresponded to an enhanced recruitment of light-demanding species that became dominant above a disturbance intensity threshold. After breakpoints in time, though, recruitment trajectories returned to diversity values and composition similar to those of predisturbance and control plots community. CONCLUSIONS: Following disturbance, recruitment processes specific to undisturbed community were first replaced by the emergence of more restricted, deterministic recruitment processes favoring species with efficient light use and acquisition. Then, a second phase corresponded to a decades-long recovery of recruits predisturbance taxonomic and functional diversity and composition that remained unachieved after 30 years.

Topography drives microgeographic adaptations of closely related species in two tropical tree species complexes.

Closely related tree species that grow in sympatry are abundant in rainforests. However, little is known of the ecoevolutionary processes that govern their niches and local coexistence. We assessed genetic species delimitation in closely related sympatric species belonging to two Neotropical tree species complexes and investigated their genomic adaptation to a fine-scale topographic gradient with associated edaphic and hydrologic features. Combining LiDAR-derived topography, tree inventories, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from gene capture experiments, we explored genome-wide population genetic structure, covariation of environmental variables, and genotype-environment association to assess microgeographic adaptations to topography within the species complexes Symphonia (Clusiaceae), and Eschweilera (Lecythidaceae) with three species per complex and 385 and 257 individuals genotyped, respectively. Within species complexes, closely related tree species had different realized optima for topographic niches defined through the topographic wetness index or the relative elevation, and species displayed genetic signatures of adaptations to these niches. Symphonia species were genetically differentiated along water and nutrient distribution particularly in genes responding to water deprivation, whereas Eschweilera species were genetically differentiated according to soil chemistry. Our results suggest that varied topography represents a powerful driver of processes modulating tropical forest biodiversity with differential adaptations that stabilize local coexistence of closely related tree species.

High foliar K and P resorption efficiencies in old-growth tropical forests growing on nutrient-poor soils.

Resorption is the active withdrawal of nutrients before leaf abscission. This mechanism represents an important strategy to maintain efficient nutrient cycling; however, resorption is poorly characterized in old-growth tropical forests growing in nutrient-poor soils. We investigated nutrient resorption from leaves in 39 tree species in two tropical forests on the Guiana Shield, French Guiana, to investigate whether resorption efficiencies varied with soil nutrient, seasonality, and species traits. The stocks of P in leaves, litter, and soil were low at both sites, indicating potential P limitation of the forests. Accordingly, mean resorption efficiencies were higher for P (35.9%) and potassium (K; 44.6%) than for nitrogen (N; 10.3%). K resorption was higher in the wet (70.2%) than in the dry (41.7%) season. P resorption increased slightly with decreasing total soil P; and N and P resorptions were positively related to their foliar concentrations. We conclude that nutrient resorption is a key plant nutrition strategy in these old-growth tropical forests, that trees with high foliar nutrient concentration reabsorb more nutrient, and that nutrients resorption in leaves, except P, are quite decoupled from nutrients in the soil. Seasonality and biochemical limitation played a role in the resorption of nutrients in leaves, but species-specific requirements obscured general tendencies at stand and ecosystem level.

Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs.

Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.

Topography shapes the local coexistence of tree species within species complexes of Neotropical forests.

Forest inventories in Amazonia include around 5000 described tree species belonging to more than 800 genera. Numerous species-rich genera share genetic variation among species because of recent speciation and/or recurrent hybridisation, forming species complexes. Despite the key role that tree species complexes play in understanding Neotropical diversification, and their need to exploit a diversity of niches, little is known about the mechanisms that allow local coexistence of tree species complexes and their species in sympatry. In this study, we explored the fine-scale distribution of five tree species complexes and 22 species within these complexes. Combining forest inventories, botanical determination, and LiDAR-derived topographic data over 120 ha of permanent plots in French Guiana, we used a Bayesian modelling framework to test the role of fine-scale topographic wetness and tree neighbourhood on the occurrence of species complexes and the relative distribution of species within complexes. Species complexes of Neotropical trees were widely spread across the topographic wetness gradient at the local scale. Species within complexes showed pervasive niche differentiation along with topographic wetness and competition gradients. Similar patterns of species-specific habitat preferences were observed within several species complexes: species more tolerant to competition for resources grow in drier and less fertile plateaus and slopes. If supported by partial reproductive isolation of species and adaptive introgression at the species complex level, our results suggest that both species-specific habitat specialisation within species complexes and the broad ecological distribution of species complexes might explain the success of these species complexes at the regional scale.

Temperature and pH define the realised niche space of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are a globally distributed group of soil organisms that play critical roles in ecosystem function. However, the ecological niches of individual AM fungal taxa are poorly understood. We collected > 300 soil samples from natural ecosystems worldwide and modelled the realised niches of AM fungal virtual taxa (VT; approximately species-level phylogroups). We found that environmental and spatial variables jointly explained VT distribution worldwide, with temperature and pH being the most important abiotic drivers, and spatial effects generally occurring at local to regional scales. While dispersal limitation could explain some variation in VT distribution, VT relative abundance was almost exclusively driven by environmental variables. Several environmental and spatial effects on VT distribution and relative abundance were correlated with phylogeny, indicating that closely related VT exhibit similar niche optima and widths. Major clades within the Glomeraceae exhibited distinct niche optima, Acaulosporaceae generally had niche optima in low pH and low temperature conditions, and Gigasporaceae generally had niche optima in high precipitation conditions. Identification of the realised niche space occupied by individual and phylogenetic groups of soil microbial taxa provides a basis for building detailed hypotheses about how soil communities respond to gradients and manipulation in ecosystems worldwide.

Emerging threats linking tropical deforestation and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tropical deforestation drivers are complex and can change rapidly in periods of profound societal transformation, such as those during a pandemic. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred illegal, opportunistic forest clearing in tropical countries, threatening forest ecosystems and their resident human communities. A total of 9583 km2 of deforestation alerts from Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) were detected across the global tropics during the first month following the implementation of confinement measures of local governments to reduce COVID-19 spread, which is nearly double that of 2019 (4732 km2). We present a conceptual framework linking tropical deforestation and the current pandemic. Zoonotic diseases, public health, economy, agriculture, and forests may all be reciprocally linked in complex positive and negative feedback loops with overarching consequences. We highlight the emerging threats to nature and society resulting from this complex reciprocal interplay and possible policy interventions that could minimize these threats.

Soil properties explain tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, across phosphorus-depleted tropical forests.

We observed strong positive relationships between soil properties and forest dynamics of growth and mortality across twelve primary lowland tropical forests in a phosphorus-poor region of the Guiana Shield. Average tree growth (diameter at breast height) increased from 0.81 to 2.1 mm yr-1 along a soil texture gradient from 0 to 67% clay, and increasing metal-oxide content. Soil organic carbon stocks in the top 30 cm ranged from 30 to 118 tons C ha-1, phosphorus content ranged from 7 to 600 mg kg-1 soil, and the relative abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ranged from 0 to 50%, all positively correlating with soil clay, and iron and aluminum oxide and hydroxide content. In contrast, already low extractable phosphorus (Bray P) content decreased from 4.4 to <0.02 mg kg-1 in soil with increasing clay content. A greater prevalence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in more clayey forests that had higher tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, indicates that despite the greater investment in nutrient uptake required, soils with higher clay content may actually serve to sustain high tree growth in tropical forests by avoiding phosphorus losses from the ecosystem. Our study demonstrates how variation in soil properties that retain carbon and nutrients can help to explain variation in tropical forest growth and mortality, but not biomass, by requiring niche specialization and contributing to biogeochemical diversification across this region.

Slow rate of secondary forest carbon accumulation in the Guianas compared with the rest of the Neotropics.

Secondary forests are a prominent component of tropical landscapes, and they constitute a major atmospheric carbon sink. Rates of carbon accumulation are usually inferred from chronosequence studies, but direct estimates of carbon accumulation based on long-term monitoring of stands are rarely reported. Recent compilations on secondary forest carbon accumulation in the Neotropics are heavily biased geographically as they do not include estimates from the Guiana Shield. We analysed the temporal trajectory of aboveground carbon accumulation and floristic composition at one 25-ha secondary forest site in French Guiana. The site was clear-cut in 1976, abandoned thereafter, and one large plot (6.25 ha) has been monitored continuously since. We used Bayesian modeling to assimilate inventory data and simulate the long-term carbon accumulation trajectory. Canopy change was monitored using two aerial lidar surveys conducted in 2009 and 2017. We compared the dynamics of this site with that of a surrounding old-growth forest. Finally, we compared our results with that from secondary forests in Costa Rica, which is one of the rare long-term monitoring programs reaching a duration comparable to our study. Twenty years after abandonment, aboveground carbon stock was 64.2 (95% credibility interval 46.4, 89.0) Mg C/ha, and this stock increased to 101.3 (78.7, 128.5) Mg C/ha 20 yr later. The time to accumulate one-half of the mean aboveground carbon stored in the nearby old-growth forest (185.6 [155.9, 200.2] Mg C/ha) was estimated at 35.0 [20.9, 55.9] yr. During the first 40 yr, the contribution of the long-lived pioneer species Xylopia nitida, Goupia glabra, and Laetia procera to the aboveground carbon stock increased continuously. Secondary forest mean-canopy height measured by lidar increased by 1.14 m in 8 yr, a canopy-height increase consistent with an aboveground carbon accumulation of 7.1 Mg C/ha (or 0.89 Mg C·ha-1 ·yr-1 ) during this period. Long-term AGC accumulation rate in Costa Rica was almost twice as fast as at our site in French Guiana. This may reflect higher fertility of Central American forest communities or a better adaptation of the forest tree community to intense and frequent disturbances. This finding may have important consequences for scaling-up carbon uptake estimates to continental scales.

The Forest Observation System, building a global reference dataset for remote sensing of forest biomass.

Forest biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring the Earth's ecosystems and climate. It is a critical input to greenhouse gas accounting, estimation of carbon losses and forest degradation, assessment of renewable energy potential, and for developing climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+, among others. Wall-to-wall mapping of aboveground biomass (AGB) is now possible with satellite remote sensing (RS). However, RS methods require extant, up-to-date, reliable, representative and comparable in situ data for calibration and validation. Here, we present the Forest Observation System (FOS) initiative, an international cooperation to establish and maintain a global in situ forest biomass database. AGB and canopy height estimates with their associated uncertainties are derived at a 0.25 ha scale from field measurements made in permanent research plots across the world's forests. All plot estimates are geolocated and have a size that allows for direct comparison with many RS measurements. The FOS offers the potential to improve the accuracy of RS-based biomass products while developing new synergies between the RS and ground-based ecosystem research communities.

Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the Guiana Shield.

Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future climate change is hard to predict primarily because several demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. Our study highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century.