Prediction of intensive care admission and hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using demographics and baseline laboratory data

Abstract Introduction: Optimized allocation of medical resources to patients with COVID-19 has been a critical concern since the onset of the pandemic. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the authors used data from a Brazilian tertiary university hospital to explore predictors of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19. Our primary aim was to create and validate prediction scores for use in hospitals and emergency departments to aid clinical decisions and resource allocation. Results: The study cohort included 3,022 participants, of whom 2,485 were admitted to the ICU; 1968 survived, and 1054 died in the hospital. From the complete cohort, 1,496 patients were randomly assigned to the derivation sample and 1,526 to the validation sample. The final scores included age, comorbidities, and baseline laboratory data. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were very similar for the derivation and validation samples. Scores for ICU admission had a 75% accuracy in the validation sample, whereas scores for death had a 77% accuracy in the validation sample. The authors found that including baseline flu-like symptoms in the scores added no significant benefit to their accuracy. Furthermore, our scores were more accurate than the previously published NEWS-2 and 4C Mortality Scores. Discussion and conclusions: The authors developed and validated prognostic scores that use readily available clinical and laboratory information to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. These scores can become valuable tools to support clinical decisions and improve the allocation of limited health resources.

Coronavirus disease-2019 and heart: assessment of troponin and cardiovascular comorbidities as prognostic markers in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 in a tertiary center in Brazil

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to evaluate the correlation of cardiac troponin T levels with comorbidities and in-hospital outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 in Brazil. METHODS: Data from a cohort of 3,596 patients who were admitted with suspected coronavirus disease-2019 in a Brazilian tertiary center, between March and August 2020, were reviewed. A total of 2,441 (68%) patients had cardiac troponin T determined in the first 72 h of admission and were stratified into two groups: elevated cardiac troponin T (cardiac troponin T >0.014 ng/mL) and normal cardiac troponin T. Associations between troponin, comorbidities, biomarkers, and outcomes were assessed. Regression models were built to assess the association of several variables with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2,441 patients were embraced, of which 924 (38%) had normal cardiac troponin T and 1,517 (62%) had elevated cardiac troponin T. Patients with elevated cardiac troponin T were older and had more comorbidities, such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, arrhythmia, renal dysfunction, liver disease, stroke, cancer, and dementia. Patients with abnormal cardiac troponin T also had more altered laboratory parameters on admission (i.e., leukocytes, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and B-type natriuretic peptide), as well as more need for intensive care unit, vasoactive drugs, mechanical ventilation, dialysis, and blood transfusion. All-cause mortality was markedly higher among patients with increased cardiac troponin T (42 vs. 16%, P<0.001). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that in-hospital mortality was not independently associated with troponin elevation. CONCLUSION: This study showed that cardiac troponin T elevation at admission was common and associated with several comorbidities, biomarkers, and clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019, but it was not an independent marker of in-hospital mortality.

Frequency and factors associated with hospital readmission after COVID-19 hospitalization: the importance of post-COVID diarrhea

Abstract Purpose: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence and risk factors for hospital readmission and infection during the months after COVID-19 hospital admission. Methods: This prospective study included adult patients who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 and had been discharged from April 2020 to August 2020. All patients had a medical evaluation with a structured questionnaire 6 to 11 months after hospital admission. The authors included only patients with confirmed COVID-19 by RT-PCR. Patients with pregnant/postpartum women, with a proven COVID-19 reinfection or incapable of answering the questionnaire were excluded. Results: A total of 822 patients completed the follow-up assessment, and 68% reportedat least one recurrent symptom related to COVID-19. The most frequent symptom was myalgia (42%). Thirty-two percent of patients visited an emergency room after COVID-19 hospitalization, and 80 (10%) patients required re-hospitalization. Risk factors for hospital readmission were orotracheal intubation during COVID-19 hospitalization (p = 0.003, OR = 2.14), Charlson score (p = 0.002, OR = 1.21), congestive heart failure (p = 0.005, OR = 2.34), peripheral artery disease (p = 0.06, OR= 2.06) and persistent diarrhea after COVID-19 hospitalization discharge (p= 0.02, OR = 1.91). The main cause of hospital readmission was an infection, 43 (54%). Pneumonia was the most frequent infection (29%). Conclusions: The presence of symptoms after six months of COVID-19 diagnosis was frequent, and hospital readmission was relatively high. HIGHLIGHTS 32% of the patients visited an emergency room after COVID-19 hospitalization. The rate of hospital readmission after COVID-19 hospitalization is high, in the present sample 10% of patients needed a second hospitalization in 6-months Patients with persistent diarrhea after COVID-19 discharge had two times more chance to have another hospitalization in the next 6-months.

Use and misuse of biomarkers and the role of D-dimer and C-reactive protein in the management of COVID-19: A post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with high mortality among hospitalized patients and incurs high costs. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection can trigger both inflammatory and thrombotic processes, and these complications can lead to a poorer prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate the association and temporal trends of D-dimer and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels with the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE), hospital mortality, and costs among inpatients with COVID-19. METHODS: Data were extracted from electronic patient records and laboratory databases. Crude and adjusted associations for age, sex, number of comorbidities, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at admission, and D-dimer or CRP logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations. RESULTS: Between March and June 2020, COVID-19 was documented in 3,254 inpatients. The D-dimer level ≥4,000 ng/mL fibrinogen equivalent unit (FEU) mortality odds ratio (OR) was 4.48 (adjusted OR: 1.97). The CRP level ≥220 mg/dL OR for death was 7.73 (adjusted OR: 3.93). The D-dimer level ≥4,000 ng/mL FEU VTE OR was 3.96 (adjusted OR: 3.26). The CRP level ≥220 mg/dL OR for VTE was 2.71 (adjusted OR: 1.92). All these analyses were statistically significant (p<0.001). Stratified hospital costs demonstrated a dose-response pattern. Adjusted D-dimer and CRP levels were associated with higher mortality and doubled hospital costs. In the first week, elevated D-dimer levels predicted VTE occurrence and systemic inflammatory harm, while CRP was a hospital mortality predictor. CONCLUSION: D-dimer and CRP levels were associated with higher hospital mortality and a higher incidence of VTE. D-dimer was more strongly associated with VTE, although its discriminative ability was poor, while CRP was a stronger predictor of hospital mortality. Their use outside the usual indications should not be modified and should be discouraged.