Going beyond probability of success: Opportunities for statisticians to influence quantitative decision-making at the portfolio level.

The pharmaceutical industry is plagued with long, costly development and high risk. Therefore, a company's effective management and optimisation of a portfolio of projects is critical for success. Project metrics such as the probability of success enable modelling of a company's pipeline accounting for the high uncertainty inherent within the industry. Making portfolio decisions inherently involves managing risk, and statisticians are ideally positioned to champion not only the derivation of metrics for individual projects, but also advocate decision-making at a broader portfolio level. This article aims to examine the existing different portfolio decision-making approaches and to suggest opportunities for statisticians to add value in terms of introducing probabilistic thinking, quantitative decision-making, and increasingly advanced methodologies.

Pharmacokinetics and safety of inhaled oxytocin compared with intramuscular oxytocin in women in the third stage of labour: A randomized open-label study.

AIMS: To compare pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of heat-stable inhaled (IH) oxytocin with intramuscular (IM) oxytocin in women in third stage of labour (TSL), the primary endpoint being PK profiles of oxytocin IH and secondary endpoint of safety. METHODS: A phase 1, randomized, cross-over study was undertaken in 2 UK and 1 Australian centres. Subjects were recruited into 2 groups: Group 1, women in TSL; Group 2, nonpregnant women of childbearing potential (Cohort A, combined oral contraception; Cohort B, nonhormonal contraception). Participants were randomized 1:1 to: Group 1, oxytocin 10 IU (17 µg) IM or oxytocin 240 IU (400 µg) IH immediately after delivery; Group 2, oxytocin 5 IU (8.5 µg) intravenously and oxytocin 240 IU (400 µg) IH at 2 separate dosing sessions. RESULTS: Participants were recruited between 23 November 2016 to 4 March 2019. In Group 1, 17 participants were randomized; received either IH (n = 9) or IM (n = 8) oxytocin. After IH and IM administration, most plasma oxytocin concentrations were below quantification limits (2 pg/mL). In Group 2 (n = 14), oxytocin IH concentrations remained quantifiable ≤3 h postdose. Adverse events were reported in both groups, with no deaths reported: Group 1, IH n = 3 (33%) and IM n = 2 (25%); Group 2, n = 14 (100%). CONCLUSION: Safety profiles of oxytocin IH and IM were similar. However, PK profiles could not be established for oxytocin IH or IM in women in TSL, despite using a highly sensitive and specific assay.

First-in-Human Study for a Selective Rearranged During Transfection Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, GSK3352589, to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics in Healthy Volunteers.

Rearranged during transfection (RET), a neuronal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase, regulates the development of sympathetic, parasympathetic, motor, and sensory neurons in the enteric nervous system. The intended site of action for GSK3352589 is intestinal tissues. GSK3352589 is an RET kinase inhibitor that was administered in double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled single-dose (SD) and repeat-dose (RD) studies in healthy subjects to investigate its safety/tolerability and pharmacokinetics. In the SD study (n = 28), GSK3352589 was dosed from 2 to 400 mg, including a food effect arm (25 mg). In the RD study (n = 40), GSK3352589 was dosed for 14 days with food twice daily from 5 to 200 mg. With single (fed and fasted) and repeat (fed) doses, bioavailability was low and less than dose-proportional. There was a food effect with 25 mg once daily but may not be clinically relevant. Elimination half-life was ≥17 hours at SD ≥ 15 mg. Accumulation ratios for Cmax , AUCt , AUCtau , and AUC24 after twice-daily dosing to steady state ranged from 1.2 to 1.8 for all doses except the 200-mg dose, which had ratios between 1.9 and 2.7. Administration of GSK3352589 after SD and RD was well tolerated with no safety concerns in healthy subjects.

First-in-Human Studies for a Selective RET Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, GSK3179106, to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics in Healthy Volunteers.

Rearranged during transfection (RET), a neuronal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase, regulates the development of the sympathetic, parasympathetic, motor, and sensory neurons in the enteric nervous system. GSK3179106 is a RET kinase inhibitor that was administered in double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled single-dose and repeat-dose studies in healthy subjects to investigate its pharmacokinetics and safety/tolerability. In the single-dose study (n = 16), GSK3179106 was dosed from 10 mg to 800 mg, including a food effect arm. In the repeat-dose study (n = 46), GSK3179106 was dosed for 14 days with food once daily (QD) from 5 mg to 100 mg and twice daily (BID) at 100 mg and 200 mg. With single fasted doses, bioavailability was low and less than dose proportional. A significant food effect was observed with a 100-mg QD dose. Drug exposure after QD and BID repeat dosing with food showed dose dependency up to 100 mg but was not dose proportional. There were no significant differences in exposure between 100-mg and 200-mg BID doses of GSK3179106. Accumulation was observed with both QD and BID dosing. Single doses up to 800 mg and repeat doses up to 400 mg were well tolerated with no safety concerns in healthy subjects.

Nutrition Adequacy Therapeutic Enhancement in the Critically Ill: A Randomized Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of the Motilin Receptor Agonist Camicinal (GSK962040): The NUTRIATE Study.

BACKGROUND: Camicinal is a novel, nonmacrolide, motilin receptor agonist that accelerates gastric emptying in critically ill patients with established feed intolerance. The primary question was whether the preemptive administration of camicinal increased the provision of enteral nutrition (EN) to critically ill patients with risk factors that predisposed to feed intolerance. METHODS: This was an international, multicenter, parallel-group, blinded, randomized controlled trial. Patients at risk for feed intolerance, defined as receiving moderate to high doses of vasopressors or opiates, or admitted because of multiple traumatic injuries or with brain injury, received either enteral camicinal 50 mg or placebo daily for a maximum of 7 days, along with EN administered according to a standardized feeding protocol. The primary outcome was the daily adequacy of enteral feed delivered, as assessed by percentage of goal volume (delivered/prescribed × 100) before development of intolerance. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients participated. The administration of camicinal did not result in a statistically significant clinical difference in the daily average percentage goal volume delivered (camicinal vs placebo: 77% [95% confidence interval: 71, 83] vs 68% (58, 78); mean difference 9% [-5, 23]; P = 0.21). Similarly, there were no differences in the percentage goal calories (76% [65, 88] vs 68% [60, 77]) and protein (76% [66, 86] vs 70% [61, 80]) administered, or the incidence of feed intolerance (15% vs 14%). CONCLUSION: The incidence of feed intolerance was low in both groups. In this cohort the preemptive administration of enteral camicinal did not significantly augment the provision of goal EN.

The effect of camicinal (GSK962040), a motilin agonist, on gastric emptying and glucose absorption in feed-intolerant critically ill patients: a randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The promotility agents currently available to treat gastroparesis and feed intolerance in the critically ill are limited by adverse effects. The aim of this study was to assess the pharmacodynamic effects and pharmacokinetics of single doses of the novel gastric promotility agent motilin agonist camicinal (GSK962040) in critically ill feed-intolerant patients. METHODS: A prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, study was performed in mechanically ventilated feed-intolerant patients [median age 55 (19-84), 73 % male, APACHE II score 18 (5-37) with a gastric residual volume ≥200 mL]. Gastric emptying and glucose absorption were measured both pre- and post-treatment after intragastric administration of 50 mg (n = 15) camicinal and placebo (n = 8) using the (13)C-octanoic acid breath test (BTt1/2), acetaminophen concentrations, and 3-O-methyl glucose concentrations respectively. RESULTS: Following 50 mg enteral camicinal, there was a trend to accelerated gastric emptying [adjusted geometric means: pre-treatment BTt1/2 117 minutes vs. post- treatment 76 minutes; 95 % confidence intervals (CI; 0.39, 1.08) and increased glucose absorption (AUC240min pre-treatment: 28.63 mmol.min/L vs. post-treatment: 71.63 mmol.min/L; 95 % CI (1.68, 3.72)]. When two patients who did not have detectable plasma concentrations of camicinal were excluded from analysis, camicinal accelerated gastric emptying (adjusted geometric means: pre-treatment BTt1/2 121 minutes vs. post-treatment 65 minutes 95 % CI (0.32, 0.91) and increased glucose absorption (AUC240min pre-treatment: 33.04 mmol.min/L vs. post-treatment: 74.59 mmol.min/L; 95 % CI (1.478, 3.449). In those patients receiving placebo gastric emptying was similar pre- and post-treatment. CONCLUSIONS: When absorbed, a single enteral dose of camicinal (50 mg) accelerates gastric emptying and increases glucose absorption in feed-intolerant critically ill patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study protocol was registered with the US NIH clinicaltrials.gov on 23 December 2009 (Identifier NCT01039805 ).

The pharmacodynamics, safety and pharmacokinetics of single doses of the motilin agonist, camicinal, in type 1 diabetes mellitus with slow gastric emptying.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Here we have investigated the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety of single doses of camicinal in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients with a history of slow gastric emptying with symptoms consistent with gastroparesis. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, incomplete block, three-period, two-centre crossover study, patients received oral administration of placebo and two of the three possible doses of camicinal (25, 50 or 125 mg). Gastric emptying ((13) C-octanoic acid breath test), pharmacokinetics and safety were primary outcomes. KEY RESULTS: Nine of the 10 patients enrolled completed the study. Gastric half-emptying time decreased by -95 min (95% CI: -156.8, -34.2) after a single dose of camicinal 125 mg compared with placebo (52 vs. 147 min, P < 0.05), representing a 65% improvement. A decrease of the gastric half-emptying time compared with placebo (approximately 39 min) was observed with camicinal 25 and 50 mg, representing a 27% reduction for both doses (not statistically significant). A positive exposure-response relationship was demonstrated across all doses. The effects of camicinal on gastric half-emptying time were not influenced by fasting glucose levels. Single doses up to 125 mg were well tolerated. Camicinal was well absorbed, exhibiting linear and approximately dose-proportional pharmacokinetic characteristics and a clear exposure-response relationship with gastric emptying. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Camicinal significantly accelerated gastric emptying of solids in T1DM patients following administration of a single oral dose. Camicinal was well tolerated and exhibited similar pharmacokinetic characteristics in diabetic patients to those previously reported in healthy volunteers.

Prevalence, risk factors, clinical consequences, and treatment of enteral feed intolerance during critical illness.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the incidence of enteral feed intolerance and factors associated with intolerance and to assess the influence of intolerance on nutrition and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from an international observational cohort study of nutrition practices among 167 intensive care units (ICUs). Data were collected on nutrition adequacy, ventilator-free days (VFDs), ICU stay, and 60-day mortality. Intolerance was defined as interruption of enteral nutrition (EN) due to gastrointestinal (GI) reasons (large gastric residuals, abdominal distension, emesis, diarrhea, or subjective discomfort). Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for intolerance and their clinical significance. A sensitivity analysis restricted to sites specifying a gastric residual volume ≥200 mL to identify intolerance was also conducted. RESULTS: Data from 1,888 ICU patients were included. The incidence of intolerance was 30.5% and occurred after a median 3 days from EN initiation. Patients remained intolerant for a mean (±SD) duration of 1.9 ± 1.3 days . Intolerance was associated with worse nutrition adequacy vs the tolerant (56% vs 64%, P < .0001), fewer VFDs (2.5 vs 11.2, P < .0001), increased ICU stay (14.4 vs 11.3 days, P < .0001), and increased mortality (30.8% vs 26.2, P = .04). The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that intolerance remained associated with negative outcomes. Although mortality was greater among the intolerant patients, this was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Intolerance occurs frequently during EN in critically ill patients and is associated with poorer nutrition and clinical outcomes.

Single-Dose Pharmacokinetics of the CCR9 Receptor Antagonist Vercirnon in Healthy US and Japanese Subjects.

Two randomized, single-dose, crossover studies were carried out to assess different formulations and doses of the CCR9 receptor antagonist vercirnon in healthy subjects. US study (n = 24): a five-period crossover study in healthy US subjects to assess the bioavailability of four new GlaxoSmithKline formulations compared with a "reference" formulation. Each subject received a single 500 mg dose of each of the five vercirnon formulations in a fed state. Primary pharmacokinetic (PK) endpoints were maximum plasma concentration, (Cmax ), and exposure as assessed by area under the curve (AUC). There was no significant difference in PK parameters and bioavailability between the formulations tested. Japanese study (n = 30): a four-period crossover study in healthy Japanese male subjects to assess PK and dose proportionality following single, ascending, oral doses of 250, 500, and 1,000 mg vercirnon under fasted and fed conditions. Vercirnon Cmax and AUC parameters in the fasted state increased in a less than dose proportional manner and were on average 20% higher in fed subjects compared with fasted subjects. Overall, these results support the premise that vercirnon has similar PK/safety profiles within US and Japanese populations. There was no evidence to preclude the use of the new vercirnon formulation in future studies.