Clinical TNM staging for esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers in the era of neoadjuvant therapy: A systematic review of the literature.

AIM: Clinical staging is vital for selecting appropriate candidates and designing neoadjuvant treatment strategies for advanced tumors. The aim of this review was to evaluate diagnostic abilities of clinical TNM staging for gastrointestinal, gastrointestinal cancers. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of recent publications to evaluate the accuracy of diagnostic modalities on gastrointestinal cancers. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE using the keywords "TNM staging," "T4 staging," "distant metastases," "esophageal cancer," "gastric cancer," and "colorectal cancer," and the search terms used in Cochrane Reviews between January 2005 to July 2020. Articles focusing on preoperative diagnosis of: (a) depth of invasion; (b) lymph node metastases; and (c) distant metastases were selected. RESULTS: After a full-text search, a final set of 55 studies (17 esophageal cancer studies, 26 gastric cancer studies, and 12 colorectal cancer studies) were used to evaluate the accuracy of clinical TNM staging. Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were the best modalities to assess distant metastases. Fat and fiber mode of CT may be useful for T4 staging of esophageal cancer, CT was a partially reliable modality for lymph node staging in gastric cancer, and CT combined with MRI was the most reliable modality for liver metastases from colorectal cancer. CONCLUSION: The most reliable diagnostic modality differed among gastrointestinal cancers depending on the type of cancer. Therefore, we propose diagnostic algorithms for clinical staging for each type of cancer.

Treatment option of endoscopic stent insertion or gastrojejunostomy for gastric outlet obstruction due to gastric cancer: a propensity score-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are currently two treatment options for gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) due to gastric cancer, endoscopic stenting and surgical gastrojejunostomy. However, their therapeutic effects have not yet been established. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to examine these effects. METHODS: The Japanese Gastric Cancer Association invited its delegates to participate in a retrospective multicenter cohort study on patients with GOO due to gastric cancer who underwent stent therapy or gastrojejunostomy in 2015. RESULTS: We obtained data from 85 patients undergoing stent therapy and 94 undergoing gastrojejunostomy from 42 hospitals. Baseline data revealed that stent patients had lower food intake, poorer performance status, and worse prognostic indices than gastrojejunostomy patients. Postoperative food intake and survival times were worse in stent patients than in gastrojejunostomy patients. We performed propensity score matching to select pairs of patients with similar baseline characteristics in the two treatment groups. After matching, the frequency of postoperative complications was significantly less in stent patients (3%, 1/33) than in gastrojejunostomy patients (21%, 7/34; p = 0.03). A low residue or full diet was achieved by 97% of stent patients (32/33) and 97% of gastrojejunostomy patients (33/34) (p = 0.98). Median survival times were 7.8 months in stent patients and 4.0 months in gastrojejunostomy patients (p = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Propensity score matching demonstrated that endoscopic stent placement resulted in less postoperative morbidity than and a similar food intake and equivalent survival times to gastrojejunostomy. These results suggest the utility of stent therapy.

Development and validation of grade-based prediction models for postoperative morbidity in gastric cancer resection using a Japanese web-based nationwide registry.

AIM: Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surgery is the mainstay treatment for gastric cancer. There are no prediction models that examine the severity of postoperative morbidity. Herein, we constructed prediction models that analyze the risk for postoperative morbidity based on severity. METHODS: Perioperative data were retrieved from the National Clinical Database in patients who underwent elective gastric cancer resection between 2011 and 2012 in Japan. Severity of postoperative complications was determined by Clavien-Dindo classification. Patients were randomly divided into two groups, the development set and the validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to build prediction models. Calibration powers of the models were assessed by a calibration plot in which linearity between the observed and predicted event rates in 10 risk bands was assessed by the Pearson R 2 statistic. RESULTS: We obtained 154 278 patients for the analysis. Prediction models were constructed for grade ≥2, grade ≥3, grade ≥4, and grade 5 in the development set (n = 77 423). Calibration plots of these models showed significant linearity in the validation set (n = 76 855): R 2 = 0.995 for grade ≥2, R 2 = 0.997 for grade ≥3, R 2 = 0.998 for grade ≥4, and R 2 = 0.997 for grade 5 (all: P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Prediction models for postoperative morbidity based on grade will provide a comprehensive risk of surgery. These models may be useful for informed consent and surgical decision-making.

Comparative study on quick sequential organ failure assessment, systemic inflammatory response syndrome and the shock index in prehospital emergency patients: single-site retrospective study.

AIM: The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score, shock index (SI), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria are simple indicators for the mortality of patients in the emergency department (ED). These simple indicators using only vital signs might be more useful in prehospital care than in the ED due to their quick calculation. However, these indicators have not been compared in prehospital settings. The aim of the present study is to compare these indicators measured in prehospital care and verify whether the qSOFA score is useful for prehospital triage. METHODS: We undertook a single-site retrospective study on patients transferred by ambulance to the Kumamoto Medical Center ED (Kumamoto, Japan) between January 2015 and December 2016. We compared areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of the qSOFA score, SI, and SIRS criteria measured in prehospital care. We also carried out sensitivity and specificity analyses using the Youden index. RESULTS: A total of 4,827 patients were included in the present study. The AUROC (95% confidence interval) of the qSOFA score for in-hospital mortality was 0.64 (0.61-0.67), which was significantly higher than those of the SIRS criteria (0.59 [0.56-0.62]) and SI (0.58 [0.54-0.62]). According to the optimal cut-off values (qSOFA ≥ 2) decided on as the Youden index, the sensitivity of the qSOFA score was 52.3% and its specificity was 69.9%. CONCLUSIONS: The qSOFA score had the highest AUROC among three indicators. However, it might not be practical in actual prehospital triage due to its low sensitivity.

One-hour oral glucose tolerance test plasma glucose at gestational diabetes diagnosis is a common predictor of the need for insulin therapy in pregnancy and postpartum impaired glucose tolerance.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a risk for adverse perinatal outcomes, and patients with a history of GDM have an increased risk of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Here, we carried out two non-interventional and retrospective studies of GDM patients in Japan. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the first study, we enrolled 529 GDM patients and assessed predictors of the need for insulin therapy. In the second study, we enrolled 185 patients from the first study, and assessed predictors of postpartum IGT. RESULTS: In the first study, gestational weeks at GDM diagnosis and history of pregnancy were significantly lower, and pregestational body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, 1- and 2-h glucose levels in a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), the number of abnormal values in a 75-g OGTT, and glycated hemoglobin were significantly higher in participants receiving insulin therapy. In the second study, 1- and 2-h glucose levels in a 75-g OGTT, the number of abnormal values in a 75-g OGTT, glycated hemoglobin, and ketone bodies in a urine test were significantly higher in participants with OGT. Logistic regression analysis showed that gestational weeks at GDM diagnosis, 1-h glucose levels in a 75-g OGTT and glycated hemoglobin were significant predictors of the need for insulin therapy, and 1-h glucose levels in a 75-g OGTT at diagnosis and ketone bodies in a urine test were significant predictors for postpartum IGT. CONCLUSIONS: Antepartum 1-h glucose levels in a 75-g OGTT was a predictor of the need for insulin therapy in pregnancy and postpartum IGT.

Validation of an assessment tool: Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Benchmarking of long-term surgical outcomes has rarely been attempted. We previously devised a prediction model for assessing the outcome of late survival after surgery, termed the Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Gastric Cancer (EPOS-GC). This study was undertaken to validate EPOS-GC in an external data set. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 11 cancer care hospitals in Japan, analyzing a consecutive series of patients who underwent elective gastric cancer resection between April 2007 and March 2009. EPOS-GC consists of three tumor-related variables and three physiological variables. The primary endpoint was postoperative overall survival. The observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio of 5-year survival rates was defined as a metric of quality of care. The sample size for O/E was determined as 42. RESULTS: We included 2045 patients for analysis. The median (95% confidence interval) follow-up time was 5.1 (1.2-6.8) years for censored patients. Although EPOS-GC demonstrated a good discriminative power (Harrell's C-index, 95% confidence interval: 0.80, 0.79-0.83), the calibration plot revealed that EPOS-GC underestimated 5-year survival rates in the high-risk group. Therefore, we recalibrated the model with Cox's regression analysis. The recalibrated EPOS-GC showed a good calibration, preserving the high discriminative power (C-index, 95% confidence interval: 0.80, 0.78-0.82). The O/E among hospitals according to the recalibrated EPOS-GC ranged between 0.87 and 1.27. The O/E correlated with hospital volumes (Spearman's correlation = 0.76, n = 11, p = .006). CONCLUSION: EPOS-GC with recalibration can convey risk-adjusted quality assurance regarding late survival following gastric cancer resection.

Inter-rater reliability of the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status rating for emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

Aim: The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system is used worldwide and has also been incorporated into various prediction rules. However, concerns have been raised regarding inter-rater agreement in various surgical fields. Although emergency gastrointestinal surgery is relatively common and associated with high postoperative mortality, a reliability study has not yet been undertaken in this field. The aim of the present study was to investigate the inter-rater reliability of ASA-PS for emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: Three sets of scenarios were generated for each ASA-PS class (2E, 3E, and 4E) in emergency gastrointestinal surgery, resulting in nine scenarios. These scenarios described the preoperative profiles of patients in one hospital. Two or three anesthesiologists from 18 other hospitals provided scores for ASA-PS for each scenario. Results: Fifty anesthesiologists scored the ASA-PS class. Between 66% and 90% of these anesthesiologists assigned the same ratings as the reference ratings for the individual scenarios. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using Fleiss' kappa (95% confidence interval) of 0.55 (0.54-0.56, P < 0.001) and an intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.63-0.93, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The results of the present study revealed the consistency of ASA-PS ratings between anesthesiologists for emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The ASA-PS may serve as a reliable variable in the prediction rules for this field.

A fascia lata free flap in pelvic exenteration for Fournier gangrene due to advanced rectal cancer: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Fournier gangrene due to advanced rectal cancer is a rapidly progressive gangrene of the perineum and buttocks. Emergency surgical debridement of necrotic tissue is crucial, and secondary surgery to resect tumors is necessary for wound healing. However, pelvic exenteration damages the pelvic floor, increasing the likelihood of herniation of internal organs into the infectious wound. The management of pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer with Fournier gangrene has not yet been established. We herein describe the use of a fascia lata free flap in pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer with Fournier gangrene. CASE PRESENTATION: A 66-year-old male who had undergone colostomy for large bowel obstruction due to advanced rectal cancer and continued chemotherapy was referred to our hospital for Fournier gangrene resulting from chemotherapy. Emergency surgical debridement was performed, and the infectious wound around the rectal cancer was treated with intravenous antibiotic agents postoperatively. However, the tumor was exposed by the wound, and exudate persisted. Pelvic exenteration was performed due to tumor infiltration into the bladder and prostate. Tumor resection resulted in a defect in the pelvic floor. A fascia lata free flap (15 × 9 cm) obtained from the left thigh was fixed to the edge of the peritoneum and ileal conduit to close the defect in the pelvic floor and prevent small bowel herniation into the resected space. There was no intraabdominal inflammation or bowel obstruction postoperatively, and outpatient chemotherapy was continued. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical repair with a fascia lata free flap to close the defect in the pelvic floor led to a good clinical outcome for pelvic exenteration in a patient with Fournier gangrene due to advanced rectal cancer.

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) versus modified E-PASS for prediction of postoperative complications in elderly patients who undergo gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in operative technique and perioperative management have resulted in increasing numbers of elderly patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). We evaluated the accuracy of Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and modified (m)E-PASS scores in predicting postoperative complications in elderly patients with GC. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed short-term outcomes in 413 patients who underwent gastrectomy for GC between 2005 and 2014. They were divided into two groups: Group N comprised 341 non-elderly patients <80 years of age and Group E comprised 72 elderly patients ≥80 years of age. We calculated the E-PASS and mE-PASS scores and evaluated the correlation between the comprehensive risk score (CRS) and occurrence of postoperative complications. RESULTS: Morbidity rates were 25.5 % in Group N and 31.9 % in Group E. In Group N, the CRS values of both the E-PASS (P < 0.0001) and mE-PASS (P < 0.0001) scores were significantly higher in patients with complications than in those without complications. In Group E, although the E-PASS CRS was significantly higher in patients with complications than in patients without complications (P = 0.01), the mE-PASS CRS fixed (CRSf) score was not significantly correlated with the occurrence of postoperative complications (P = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Both E-PASS and mE-PASS can be used to predict the occurrence of postoperative complications in GC patients undergoing gastrectomy. However, the E-PASS CRS is more accurate for elderly patients because variations in intraoperative parameters such as operation time, blood loss, and extent of skin incision have a strong influence on the occurrence of postoperative complications.

Does postoperative morbidity worsen the oncological outcome after radical surgery for gastrointestinal cancers? A systematic review of the literature.

PURPOSE: The impact of postoperative complications on survival after radical surgery for esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers remains controversial. We conducted a systematic review of recent publications to examine the effect of postoperative complications on oncological outcome. METHODS: A literature search of PubMed/MEDLINE was performed using the keywords "esophageal cancer," "gastric cancer," and "colorectal cancer," obtaining 27 reports published online up until the end of April 2016. Articles focusing on (i) postoperative morbidity and oncological outcome; and (ii) body mass index (BMI), postoperative morbidity, and oncological outcome, were selected. Univariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards model) were performed. RESULTS: Patients with postoperative complications had significantly poorer long-term survival than those without complications. Complications were associated with impaired oncological outcomes. The hazard ratios for overall survival were 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-2.12), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.13-2.24), and 1.55 (95% CI, 1.28-1.87) in esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers, respectively. High BMI was associated with postoperative morbidity rate but not with poor oncological outcome. Low BMI was significantly associated with inferior oncological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Complications after radical surgery for esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers are associated with patient prognosis. Avoiding such complications might improve the outcomes.

Value of E-PASS models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: It has previously been reported that a general risk model, Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), and its modified version, mE-PASS, had a high predictive power for postoperative mortality and morbidity in a variety of gastrointestinal surgeries. This study evaluated their utilities in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. METHODS: E-PASS variables were collected in patients undergoing resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma in Japanese referral hospitals. RESULTS: Analysis of 125 patients with gallbladder cancer and 97 patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (n = 222). Fifty-six patients (25%) underwent liver resection with either hemihepatectomy or extended hemihepatectomy. The E-PASS models showed a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) were 0.85 (0.76-0.94) for E-PASS and 0.82 (0.73-0.91) for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient: ρ = 0.51, P < 0.001 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.47, P < 0.001 for mE-PASS). CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS models examined herein may accurately predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. These models will be useful for surgical decision-making, informed consent, and risk adjustments in surgical audits.

Does remnant gastric cancer really differ from primary gastric cancer? A systematic review of the literature by the Task Force of Japanese Gastric Cancer Association.

Remnant gastric cancer, most frequently defined as cancer detected in the remnant stomach after distal gastrectomy for benign disease and those cases after surgery of gastric cancer at least 5 years after the primary surgery, is often reported as a tumor with poor prognosis. The Task Force of Japanese Gastric Cancer Association for Research Promotion evaluated the clinical impact of remnant gastric cancer by systematically reviewing publications focusing on molecular carcinogenesis, lymph node status, patient survival, and surgical complications. A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed/MEDLINE with the keywords "remnant," "stomach," and "cancer," revealing 1154 relevant reports published up to the end of December 2014. The mean interval between the initial surgery and the diagnosis of remnant gastric cancer ranged from 10 to 30 years. The incidence of lymph node metastases at the splenic hilum for remnant gastric cancer is not significantly higher than that for primary proximal gastric cancer. Lymph node involvement in the jejunal mesentery is a phenomenon peculiar to remnant gastric cancer after Billroth II reconstruction. Prognosis and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates seem to be comparable to those for primary proximal gastric cancer. The crude 5-year mortality for remnant gastric cancer was 1.08 times higher than that for primary proximal gastric cancer, but this difference was not statistically significant. In conclusion, although no prospective cohort study has yet evaluated the clinical significance of remnant gastric cancer, our literature review suggests that remnant gastric cancer does not adversely affect patient prognosis and postoperative course.

A case of an omphalomesenteric duct remnant in an adult treated with laparoscopic surgery.

INTRODUCTION: The presence of an omphalomesenteric duct (OMD) remnant is a rare condition that typically affects the pediatric population. This report describes an extremely rare case of an OMD remnant that was diagnosed and resected by laparoscopic surgery in an adult. PRESENTATION OF CASE: A 52-year-old man underwent a medical examination at our hospital for right lower quadrant pain. Laboratory findings showed slight leukocytosis and an elevated C-reactive protein level. A luminal structure connected to the umbilicus was detected in the right pelvic wall by abdominal computed tomography, and an OMD remnant was suspected. Laparoscopic surgery was performed by inserting three trocars into the left side of the abdomen; no trocars were inserted near the umbilicus. This procedure provided both a good field of view around the umbilicus and adequate working space. We definitively diagnosed the structure as an OMD remnant and resected it with minimal invasion. The patient was discharged on postoperative day 7 without complications. Pathologic analysis found the lumen is covered by ileum-like mucosa, and a microabscess is formed in the surrounding fat tissue. DISCUSSION: OMD remnants are uncommon, and their diagnosis is difficult. Most reports advocate for prompt surgical resection in symptomatic patients. CONCLUSION: In the present case, definitive diagnosis and treatment were accomplished with minimally invasive laparoscopic surgery.

The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. METHODS: Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. RESULTS: Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p < 0.005). Highly significant p-values below 0.0001 were found for age, ASA score, severe pulmonary disease, respiratory history, performance status, hypoalbuminemia, alteration of hemoglobin, serum sodium level, and for all histological variables except tumor location. Age, TNM stage, lymphatic invasion, performance status, and serum sodium level were independent variables in the multivariate analysis and were entered the EPOS-CC model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the inclusion of physiological factors, thus also taking non-tumor-associated deaths into account. Furthermore, EPOS-CC score may compare quality of care among different institutions. Future studies are necessary to further evaluate this score and help improving the prediction of long-term survival following colorectal cancer surgery.

Preliminary study of surgical audit for overall survival following gastric cancer resection.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies for surgical audit have focused on short-term outcomes, such as perioperative mortality. There has been no gold standard how to evaluate quality of care for long-term outcomes in surgical oncology. This preliminary study aims to propose a method for surgical audit targeting long-term outcome following gastrectomy for gastric cancer. METHODS: We prospectively investigated a set of variables relating to physiologic conditions, tumor characteristics and operations in patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2005 and July 2008 in 18 referral hospitals in Japan. Overall survival (OS) is the endpoint. Cox hazard regression analysis was used to generate a model to predict OS. The calibration and discrimination power of the model were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated 5-year OS rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality. RESULTS: Among 762 patients analyzed, 697 (91%) completed the 5-year follow-up. The constructed model for OS exhibited a good discrimination power (AUC, 95% confidence interval 0.89, 0.86-0.91), which was significantly better than that for the UICC stage (0.81, 0.77-0.84). This model also demonstrated a good calibration power (H-L: χ(2) = 27.2, df = 8, P = 0.77). The OE ratios among the participating hospitals revealed no significant variation between 0.74 and 1.1. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests the possibility of surgical audit for postoperative OS in gastric cancer. Further studies including high-volume centers will be necessary to validate this idea.

Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas.

BACKGROUND: The present study evaluated the utility of general surgical risk models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in the specialty field of pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas. METHODS: We investigated Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), its modified version (mE-PASS), and Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) in 231 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy (Group A). We also analyzed E-PASS and mE-PASS in another cohort of the same procedures (Group B, n = 313). RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for detecting in-hospital mortality in Group A were moderate at 0.75 for E-PASS, 0.69 for mE-PASS, and 0.69 for P-POSSUM. The predicted mortality rates of the models significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.17, P = 0.011 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.15, and P = 0.027 for P-POSSUM). The AUCs were also moderate in Group B at 0.68 for E-PASS and 0.69 for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.18, P = 0.0018 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.17, and P = 0.0022 for mE-PASS). CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that the predictive powers of general risk models may be moderate in pancreatic resections. A novel model would be desirable for these procedures.

Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in patients undergoing surgery for choledochocystolithiasis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of complicated choledochocystolithiasis is increasing with the aging of society in Japan. We evaluated the utility of our prediction rule modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (mE-PASS) in predicting postoperative adverse events in patients with choledochocystolithiasis. METHODS: A total of 4,329 patients who underwent elective surgery for choledochocystolithiasis in 44 referral hospitals between April 1987 and April 2007 were analyzed for mE-PASS along with postoperative events. The discrimination power of mE-PASS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The correlation between ordinal and interval variables was quantified by the Spearman rank correlation (ρ). The ratio of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratio) was used as a metric of surgical quality. RESULTS: Postoperative in-hospital mortality rates were 0 % (0/3,442) for laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 0.19 % (1/521) for open cholecystectomy, 1.6 % (1/63) for laparoscopic choledochotomy, 1.1 % (3/264) for open choledochotomy, and 5.1 % (2/39) for plasty or resection of the common bile duct. mE-PASS demonstrated a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; AUC, 95 % confidence interval (CI) of 0.96, 0.94-0.99. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.278, p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (ρ = 0.479, p < 0.0001). The OE ratios (95 % CI) improved slightly over time; 1.5 (0.25-9.0) between 1987 and 2000, and 0.40 (0.078-2.1) between 2001 and 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that mE-PASS can predict postoperative risks in patients who have undergone choledochocystolithiasis. mE-PASS may be useful in surgical decision making and evaluating the quality of care.

Development and validation of the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES) model.

PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to establish a model to predict the post-operative mortality for emergency surgeries. METHODS: A regression model was constructed to predict in-hospital mortality using data from a cohort of 479 cases of emergency surgery performed in a Japanese referral hospital. The discrimination power of the current model termed the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES), and Portsmouth modification of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in another cohort of 494 cases in the same hospital (validation subset). We further evaluated the accuracy of the CORES in a cohort of 1,471 cases in six hospitals (multicenter subset). RESULTS: CORES requires only five preoperative variables, while the P-POSSUM requires 20 variables. In the validation subset, the CORES model had a similar discrimination power as the P-POSSUM for detecting in-hospital mortality (AUC, 95 % CI for CORES: 0.86, 0.80-0.93; for P-POSSUM: 0.88, 0.82-0.93). The predicted mortality rates of the CORES model significantly correlated with the severity of the post-operative complications. The subsequent multicenter study also demonstrated that the CORES model exhibited a high AUC value (0.85: 0.81-0.89) and a significant correlation with the post-operative morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This model for emergency surgery, the CORES, demonstrated a similar discriminatory power to the P-POSSUM in predicting post-operative mortality. However, the CORES model has a substantial advantage over the P-POSSUM in that it utilizes far fewer variables.

Risk factors for catheter-related bloodstream infections in adult hospitalized patients - multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) may change over time with progress in infection control. This study was undertaken to explore the current risk factors for CRBSIs in hospitalized patients. METHODS: Adult patients with non-tunneled central venous catheters (CVCs) in 12 Japanese referral hospitals were prospectively enrolled between December 2009 and January 2012. Patients were monitored for CRBSIs for up to 8 weeks from CVC insertion; data were collected regarding patient characteristics, the purpose of CVC insertion, insertion methods, mechanical complications during insertion, and post-insertion catheter care. RESULTS: A total of 892 patients were enrolled in this study. The overall incidence of CRBSIs was 0.40 infections per 1000 catheter-days. Univariate analysis using the Fisher's exact test identified one of the participating hospitals (hospital A; p < 0.001), internal jugular vein catheterization (IJVC) (p = 0.0013), not using maximal sterile barrier precautions (p = 0.030), and the Seldinger technique for catheter insertion (p = 0.025) as significant risk factors for CRBSI. After excluding data from hospital A, only IJVC remained a significant risk factor for CRBSI (p = 0.025). The cumulative probability of remaining without CRBSI was significantly lower in patients with IJVCs than in patients with other catheter routes (p < 0.001; log-rank test). Similarly, the cumulative probability of remaining without catheter removal due to a suspected infection was significantly lower in patients with IJVCs (p = 0.034; log-rank test). CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that IJVC might be a risk factor for CRBSI under current infection control conditions.