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INTRODUCTION: In Multiple Sclerosis (MS), patients´ characteristics and (bio)markers that reliably predict the individual disease prognosis at disease onset are lacking. Cohort studies allow a close follow-up of MS histories and a thorough phenotyping of patients. Therefore, a multicenter cohort study was initiated to implement a wide spectrum of data and (bio)markers in newly diagnosed patients. METHODS: ProVal-MS (Prospective study to validate a multidimensional decision score that predicts treatment outcome at 24 months in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or early Relapsing-Remitting-MS) is a prospective cohort study in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or Relapsing-Remitting (RR)-MS (McDonald 2017 criteria), diagnosed within the last two years, conducted at five academic centers in Southern Germany. The collection of clinical, laboratory, imaging, and paraclinical data as well as biosamples is harmonized across centers. The primary goal is to validate (discrimination and calibration) the previously published DIFUTURE MS-Treatment Decision score (MS-TDS). The score supports clinical decision-making regarding the options of early (within 6 months after study baseline) platform medication (Interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl/diroximel fumarate, teriflunomide), or no immediate treatment (> 6 months after baseline) of patients with early RR-MS and CIS by predicting the probability of new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (MRIs) between 6 and 24 months. Further objectives are refining the MS-TDS score and providing data to identify new markers reflecting disease course and severity. The project also provides a technical evaluation of the ProVal-MS cohort within the IT-infrastructure of the DIFUTURE consortium (Data Integration for Future Medicine) and assesses the efficacy of the data sharing techniques developed. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical cohorts provide the infrastructure to discover and to validate relevant disease-specific findings. A successful validation of the MS-TDS will add a new clinical decision tool to the armamentarium of practicing MS neurologists from which newly diagnosed MS patients may take advantage. Trial registration ProVal-MS has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register, `Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien` (DRKS)-ID: DRKS00014034, date of registration: 21 December 2018; https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00014034.
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BACKGROUND: Although of high individual and socioeconomic relevance, a reliable prediction model for the prognosis of juvenile stroke (18-55 years) is missing. Therefore, the study presented in this protocol aims to prospectively validate the discriminatory power of a prediction score for the 3 months functional outcome after juvenile stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) that has been derived from an independent retrospective study using standard clinical workup data. METHODS: PREDICT-Juvenile-Stroke is a multi-centre (n = 4) prospective observational cohort study collecting standard clinical workup data and data on treatment success at 3 months after acute ischemic stroke or TIA that aims to validate a new prediction score for juvenile stroke. The prediction score has been developed upon single center retrospective analysis of 340 juvenile stroke patients. The score determines the patient's individual probability for treatment success defined by a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-2 or return to pre-stroke baseline mRS 3 months after stroke or TIA. This probability will be compared to the observed clinical outcome at 3 months using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The primary endpoint is to validate the clinical potential of the new prediction score for a favourable outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke or TIA. Secondary outcomes are to determine to what extent predictive factors in juvenile stroke or TIA patients differ from those in older patients and to determine the predictive accuracy of the juvenile stroke prediction score on other clinical and paraclinical endpoints. A minimum of 430 juvenile patients (< 55 years) with acute ischemic stroke or TIA, and the same number of older patients will be enrolled for the prospective validation study. DISCUSSION: The juvenile stroke prediction score has the potential to enable personalisation of counselling, provision of appropriate information regarding the prognosis and identification of patients who benefit from specific treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study has been registered at https://drks.de on March 31, 2022 ( DRKS00024407 ).
