Tree-temporal scan statistics for safety signal detection in vaccine clinical trials.

The evaluation of safety is critical in all clinical trials. However, the quantitative analysis of safety data in clinical trials poses statistical difficulties because of multiple potentially overlapping endpoints. Tree-temporal scan statistic approaches address this issue and have been widely employed in other data sources, but not to date in clinical trials. We evaluated the performance of three complementary scan statistical methods for routine quantitative safety signal detection: the self-controlled tree-temporal scan (SCTTS), a tree-temporal scan based on group comparison (BGTTS), and a log-rank based tree-temporal scan (LgRTTS). Each method was evaluated using data from two phase III clinical trials, and simulated data (simulation study). In the case study, the reference set was adverse events (AEs) in the Reference Safety Information of the evaluated vaccine. The SCTTS method had higher sensitivity than other methods, and after dose 1 detected 80 true positives (TP) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 60%. The LgRTTS detected 49 TPs with 69% PPV. The BGTTS had 90% of PPV with 38 TPs. In the simulation study, with simulated reference sets of AEs, the SCTTS method had good sensitivity to detect transient effects. The LgRTTS method showed the best performance for the detection of persistent effects, with high sensitivity and expected probability of type I error. These three methods provide complementary approaches to safety signal detection in clinical trials or across clinical development programmes. All three methods formally adjust for multiple testing of large numbers of overlapping endpoints without being excessively conservative.

Optimizing Signal Management in a Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System: A Proof-of-Concept with COVID-19 Vaccines Using Signs, Symptoms, and Natural Language Processing.

INTRODUCTION: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) has already been challenged by an extreme increase in the number of individual case safety reports (ICSRs) after the market introduction of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Evidence from scientific literature suggests that when there is an extreme increase in the number of ICSRs recorded in spontaneous reporting databases (such as the VAERS), an accompanying increase in the number of disproportionality signals (sometimes referred to as 'statistical alerts') generated is expected. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to develop a natural language processing (NLP)-based approach to optimize signal management by excluding disproportionality signals related to listed adverse events following immunization (AEFIs). COVID-19 vaccines were used as a proof-of-concept. METHODS: The VAERS was used as a data source, and the Finding Associated Concepts with Text Analysis (FACTA+) was used to extract signs and symptoms of listed AEFIs from MEDLINE for COVID-19 vaccines. Disproportionality analyses were conducted according to guidelines and recommendations provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By using signs and symptoms of listed AEFIs, we computed the proportion of disproportionality signals dismissed for COVID-19 vaccines using this approach. Nine NLP techniques, including Generative Pre-Trained Transformer 3.5 (GPT-3.5), were used to automatically retrieve Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities Preferred Terms (MedDRA PTs) from signs and symptoms extracted from FACTA+. RESULTS: Overall, 17% of disproportionality signals for COVID-19 vaccines were dismissed as they reported signs and symptoms of listed AEFIs. Eight of nine NLP techniques used to automatically retrieve MedDRA PTs from signs and symptoms extracted from FACTA+ showed suboptimal performance. GPT-3.5 achieved an accuracy of 78% in correctly assigning MedDRA PTs. CONCLUSION: Our approach reduced the need for manual exclusion of disproportionality signals related to listed AEFIs and may lead to better optimization of time and resources in signal management.

Developing an Artificial Intelligence-Guided Signal Detection in the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS): A Proof-of-Concept Study Using Galcanezumab and Simulated Data.

INTRODUCTION: Time- and resource-demanding activities related to processing individual case safety reports (ICSRs) include manual procedures to evaluate individual causality with the final goal of dismissing false-positive safety signals. Eminent experts and a representative from pharmaceutical industries and regulatory agencies have highlighted the need to automatize time- and resource-demanding procedures in signal detection and validation. However, to date there is a sparse availability of automatized tools for such purposes. OBJECTIVES: ICSRs recorded in spontaneous reporting databases have been and continue to be the cornerstone and the most important data source in signal detection. Despite the richness of this data source, the incessantly increased amount of ICSRs recorded in spontaneous reporting databases has generated problems in signal detection and validation due to the increase in resources and time needed to process cases. This study aimed to develop a new artificial intelligence (AI)-based framework to automate resource- and time-consuming steps of signal detection and signal validation, such as (1) the selection of control groups in disproportionality analyses and (2) the identification of co-reported drugs serving as alternative causes, to look to dismiss false-positive disproportionality signals and therefore reduce the burden of case-by-case validation. METHODS: The Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC) and the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system were used to automatically identify control groups within and outside the chemical subgroup of the proof-of-concept drug under investigation, galcanezumab. Machine learning, specifically conditional inference trees, has been used to identify alternative causes in disproportionality signals. RESULTS: By using conditional inference trees, the framework was able to dismiss 20.00% of erenumab, 14.29% of topiramate, and 13.33% of amitriptyline disproportionality signals on the basis of purely alternative causes identified in cases. Furthermore, of the disproportionality signals that could not be dismissed purely on the basis of the alternative causes identified, we estimated a 15.32%, 25.39%, and 26.41% reduction in the number of galcanezumab cases to undergo manual validation in comparison with erenumab, topiramate, and amitriptyline, respectively. CONCLUSION: AI could significantly ease some of the most time-consuming and labor-intensive steps of signal detection and validation. The AI-based approach showed promising results, however, future work is needed to validate the framework.

Identifying Safety Subgroups at Risk: Assessing the Agreement Between Statistical Alerting and Patient Subgroup Risk.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying individual characteristics or underlying conditions linked to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) can help optimise the benefit-risk ratio for individuals. A systematic evaluation of statistical methods to identify subgroups potentially at risk using spontaneous ADR report datasets is lacking. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we aimed to assess concordance between subgroup disproportionality scores and European Medicines Agency Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) discussions of potential subgroup risk. METHODS: The subgroup disproportionality method described by Sandberg et al., and variants, were applied to statistically screen for subgroups at potential increased risk of ADRs, using data from the US FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) cumulative from 2004 to quarter 2 2021. The reference set used to assess concordance was manually extracted from PRAC minutes from 2015 to 2019. Mentions of subgroups presenting potential differentiated risk and overlapping with the Sandberg method were included. RESULTS: Twenty-seven PRAC subgroup examples representing 1719 subgroup drug-event combinations (DECs) in FAERS were included. Using the Sandberg methodology, 2 of the 27 could be detected (one for age and one for sex). No subgroup examples for pregnancy and underlying condition were detected. With a methodological variant, 14 of 27 examples could be detected. CONCLUSIONS: We observed low concordance between subgroup disproportionality scores and PRAC discussions of potential subgroup risk. Subgroup analyses performed better for age and sex, while for covariates not well-captured in FAERS, such as underlying condition and pregnancy, additional data sources should be considered.

Review of Over 15 Years Postmarketing Safety Surveillance Spontaneous Data for the Human Rotavirus Vaccine (Rotarix) on Intussusception.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age worldwide, and vaccination reduces the disease burden. Evidence from postmarketing surveillance studies suggested an increased risk of intussusception (IS) in infants post-RV vaccination. An overall positive benefit-risk balance for the human RV vaccine (HRV) Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline [GSK], Belgium) has been established and recent findings indicate an indirect effect of reduced IS over the long term. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to discuss spontaneous data from the GSK worldwide safety database on IS post-Rotarix administration. METHODS: The database was reviewed for all spontaneous IS cases from 2004 to 2020. Additionally, an observed versus expected (O/E) analysis was done for adverse events attributed to IS. Data were reviewed as overall worldwide and stratified by region (Europe/USA/Japan) and dose. RESULTS: A male predominance of IS patients was observed, consistent with earlier reports. The most frequently reported events in confirmed IS cases (Brighton Collaboration Working Group [BCWG] level 1) with time to onset ≤ 30 days post-vaccination were vomiting (55.8%), haematochezia (47.2%), and crying (21.1%). The observations from the IS spontaneous cases review and results of the O/E analysis are consistent with the known IS safety profile of RV vaccines: a transient increased incidence of IS post-vaccination (primarily in Europe/Japan/worldwide), mostly within 7 days postdose 1. CONCLUSION: Since the outcomes of early IS management are favourable over delayed management, healthcare professionals should inform parents about the importance of seeking immediate medical advice in case of unusual behaviour of the vaccinated infant. GSK continues to monitor the IS risk post-Rotarix administration through routine pharmacovigilance activities.

Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis and a major cause of death in young children worldwide. Vaccination has been instrumental in reducing the impact of RV disease. Real-world evidence suggests an increased risk of intussusception (an infrequent type of bowel obstruction) in infants following RV vaccination. We reviewed IS cases reported spontaneously worldwide in children following a two-dose vaccination with the human RV vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline [GSK]) since its launch in 2004. We observed that (1) IS occurred more frequently 7 days after the first dose and, to a lesser extent, after the second dose; (2) boys were more frequently affected than girls (56.3%); (3) of 862 confirmed reported cases, 557 required hospitalisation; and (4) surgical intervention was required for 294 of 557 hospitalised cases. We used statistical analysis to assess whether the number of cases observed would be higher or lower than the natural occurrence of IS (irrespective of vaccination). These results were in line with the known RV vaccine safety profile. It is important to constantly monitor the real-world safety profile of RV vaccines in the postmarketing setting. Since the outcomes of early management of IS are favourable compared with delayed management, healthcare professionals should inform parents to seek immediate medical advice if they observe unusual behaviour in their vaccinated child. In conclusion, our analyses on data of a large patient pool for this rare event reinforce the favourable safety profile of human RV vaccine and the benefits of vaccination in young children.

Post-Marketing Safety Surveillance for the Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine: Methodology.

A diligent, systematic, regular review of aggregate safety data is essential, particularly early after vaccine introduction, as this is when safety signals not identified during clinical development may emerge. In October 2017, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV; Shingrix, GSK) as the preferred vaccine for preventing herpes zoster (HZ) and related complications in immunocompetent adults aged ≥ 50 years. Subsequently, GSK experienced an unprecedented high demand for RZV. In this methodology paper, we summarize the enhanced measures undertaken to assess RZV safety during its early post-marketing experience in the USA, Canada and Germany. In addition to the routine signal-detection methods already in place for all vaccines, GSK established tailored and enhanced safety monitoring for RZV based on aggregate data of spontaneous reports and manufacturing data. Proactive, near real-time detection and evaluation of signals was a key objective. A dedicated in-house signal-detection tool customized for RZV was employed on a weekly (rather than the routine monthly) basis, allowing for a centralized, more frequent review of data on a single web-based platform. We also identified the background incidence rates of preselected medical events of interest in the first countries to introduce RZV (USA, Canada and Germany) to perform observed-to-expected analyses. This approach may offer a solution to the challenges associated with the assessment and monitoring of vaccine safety in an efficient and timely manner in the context of high vaccine uptake.

ADVANCE system testing: Estimating the incidence of adverse events following pertussis vaccination in healthcare databases with incomplete exposure data.

The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public-private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid vaccine benefit-risk monitoring using existing European healthcare databases. Incidence rate (IR) estimates of vaccination-associated adverse events that are needed to model vaccination risks can be calculated from existing healthcare databases when vaccination (exposure) data are available. We assessed different methods to derive IRs in risk periods following vaccination when exposure data are missing in one database, using estimated IRs and IRRs from other databases for febrile seizures, fever and persistent crying. IRs were estimated for children aged 0-5 years in outcome-specific risk and non-risk periods following the first dose of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination in four primary care databases and one hospital database. We compared derived and observed IRs in each database using three methods: 1) multiplication of non-risk period IR for database i by IR ratio (IRR) obtained from meta-analysis of IRRs estimated using the self-controlled case-series method, from databases other than i; 2) same method as 1, but multiplying with background IR; and 3) meta-analyses of observed IRs from databases other than i. IRs for febrile seizures were lower in primary care databases than the hospital database. The derived IR for febrile seizures using data from primary care databases was lower than that observed in the hospital database, and using data from the hospital database gave a higher derived IR than that observed in the primary care database. For fever and persistent crying the opposite was observed. We demonstrated that missing IRs for a post-vaccination period can be derived but that the type of database and the method of event data capture can have an impact on potential bias. We recommend IRs are derived using data from similar database types (hospital or primary care) with caution as even this can give heterogeneous results.

Dengue Infection in Children in Fortaleza, Brazil: A 3-Year School-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

Dengue is endemic in Brazil. The dengue surveillance system's reliance on passive reporting may underestimate disease incidence and cannot detect asymptomatic/pauci-symptomatic cases. In this 3-year prospective cohort study (NCT01391819) in 5- to 13-year-old children from nine schools in Fortaleza (N = 2,117), we assessed dengue virus (DENV) infection seroprevalence by IgG indirect ELISA at yearly visits and disease incidence through active and enhanced passive surveillance. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and DENV IgM/IgG capture ELISA were used for diagnosis. We further characterized confirmed and probable cases with a plaque reduction neutralization test. At enrollment, 54.1% (95% CI: 46.6, 61.4) of children were DENV IgG positive. The annual incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic dengue cases was 11.0 (95% CI: 7.3, 14.7), 18.1 (10.4, 25.7), and 10.2 (0.7, 19.7), and of laboratory-confirmed or probable dengue cases with neutralizing antibody profile evocative of dengue exposure was 13.2 (6.6, 19.9), 18.7 (5.3, 32.2), and 8.4 (2.4, 19.2) per 1,000 child-years in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. By RT-qPCR, we identified 14 DENV-4 cases in 2012-2013 and seven DENV-1 cases in 2014. During the course of the study, 32.8% of dengue-naive children experienced a primary infection. Primary inapparent dengue infection was detected in 20.3% (95% CI: 13.6, 29.1) of dengue-naive children in 2012, 8.7% (6.9, 10.9) in 2013, and 5.1% (4.4, 6.0) in 2014. Our results confirmed the high dengue endemicity in Fortaleza, with active and enhanced passive surveillance detecting three to five times more cases than the National System of Disease Notification.

ADVANCE system testing: Can safety studies be conducted using electronic healthcare data? An example using pertussis vaccination.

INTRODUCTION: The Accelerated Development of Vaccine benefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) public-private collaboration, aimed to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk monitoring of vaccines using healthcare databases in Europe. The objective of this proof-of-concept (POC) study was to test the feasibility of the ADVANCE system to generate incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person-years and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for risks associated with whole cell- (wP) and acellular- (aP) pertussis vaccines, occurring in event-specific risk windows in children prior to their pre-school-entry booster. METHODS: The study population comprised almost 5.1 million children aged 1 month to <6 years vaccinated with wP or aP vaccines during the study period from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015. Data from two Danish hospital (H) databases (AUH and SSI) and five primary care (PC) databases from, UK (THIN and RCGP RSC), Spain (SIDIAP and BIFAP) and Italy (Pedianet) were analysed. Database-specific IRRs between risk vs. non-risk periods were estimated in a self-controlled case series study and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: The overall IRs were: fever, 58.2 (95% CI: 58.1; 58.3), 96.9 (96.7; 97.1) for PC DBs and 8.56 (8.5; 8.6) for H DBs; convulsions, 7.6 (95% CI: 7.6; 7.7), 3.55 (3.5; 3.6) for PC and 12.87 (12.8; 13) for H; persistent crying, 3.9 (95% CI: 3.8; 3.9) for PC, injection-site reactions, 2.2 (95% CI 2.1; 2.2) for PC, hypotonic hypo-responsive episode (HHE), 0.4 (95% CI: 0.4; 0.4), 0.6 (0.6; 0.6) for PC and 0.2 (0.2; 0.3) for H; and somnolence: 0.3 (95% CI: 0.3; 0.3) for PC. The pooled IRRs for persistent crying, fever, and ISR, adjusted for age and healthy vaccinee period were higher after wP vs. aP vaccination, and lower for convulsions, for all doses. The IRR for HHE was slightly lower for wP than aP, while wP was associated with somnolence only for dose 1 and dose 3 compared with aP. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated IRs and IRRs were comparable with published data, therefore demonstrating that the ADVANCE system was able to combine several European healthcare databases to assess vaccine safety data for wP and aP vaccination.

Enhanced Safety Surveillance of Influenza Vaccines in General Practice, 2015-16: Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: The European Medicines Agency (EMA) requires vaccine manufacturers to conduct enhanced real-time surveillance of seasonal influenza vaccination. The EMA has specified a list of adverse events of interest to be monitored. The EMA sets out 3 different ways to conduct such surveillance: (1) active surveillance, (2) enhanced passive surveillance, or (3) electronic health record data mining (EHR-DM). English general practice (GP) is a suitable setting to implement enhanced passive surveillance and EHR-DM. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to test the feasibility of conducting enhanced passive surveillance in GP using the yellow card scheme (adverse events of interest reporting cards) to determine if it has any advantages over EHR-DM alone. METHODS: A total of 9 GPs in England participated, of which 3 tested the feasibility of enhanced passive surveillance and the other 6 EHR-DM alone. The 3 that tested EPS provided patients with yellow (adverse events) cards for patients to report any adverse events. Data were extracted from all 9 GPs' EHRs between weeks 35 and 49 (08/24/2015 to 12/06/2015), the main period of influenza vaccination. We conducted weekly analysis and end-of-study analyses. RESULTS: Our GPs were largely distributed across England with a registered population of 81,040. In the week 49 report, 15,863/81,040 people (19.57% of the registered practice population) were vaccinated. In the EPS practices, staff managed to hand out the cards to 61.25% (4150/6776) of the vaccinees, and of these cards, 1.98% (82/4150) were returned to the GP offices. Adverse events of interests were reported by 113 /7223 people (1.56%) in the enhanced passive surveillance practices, compared with 322/8640 people (3.73%) in the EHR-DM practices. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we demonstrated that GPs EHR-DM was an appropriate method of enhanced surveillance. However, the use of yellow cards, in enhanced passive surveillance practices, did not enhance the collection of adverse events of interests as demonstrated in this study. Their return rate was poor, data entry from them was not straightforward, and there were issues with data reconciliation. We concluded that customized cards prespecifying the EMA's adverse events of interests, combined with EHR-DM, were needed to maximize data collection. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015469.

Prevalence and Persistence of Maternal Dengue Neutralizing Antibodies in Infants From Central and Southern Thailand: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Understanding maternal dengue virus (DENV) neutralizing antibody kinetics in infants remains timely to develop a safe and effective childhood immunization. This retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and persistence of maternal antibody titers against DENV serotypes 1 to 4 in 139 Thai infants at 2, 6, and 7 months of age, using serum samples collected in a vaccination trial ( http://clinicaltrials.gov ; NCT00197275). Neutralizing antibodies against all 4 DENV serotypes were detected in 87.8% and 22.9% of infants at 2 and 7 months, respectively. At 2 months, DENV-4 neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers were notably lower (80) compared with DENV-1 to DENV-3 (277-471). Our results corroborate previous findings that DENV-1 to DENV-4 maternal antibodies persist at 7 months despite titers decrease from 2 months onwards. As persisting maternal antibodies may inhibit immune responses in DENV-vaccinated infants, a comprehensive understanding of DENV antibody kinetics is required in the perspective of vaccine development for infants.

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination on Hospitalizations and Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With COPD.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in reducing influenza-related hospitalizations among patients with COPD is not well described, and influenza vaccination uptake remains suboptimal. METHODS: Data were analyzed from a national, prospective, multicenter cohort study including patients with COPD, hospitalized with any acute respiratory illness or exacerbation between 2011 and 2015. All patients underwent nasopharyngeal swab screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for influenza. The primary outcome was an influenza-related hospitalization. We identified influenza-positive cases and negative control subjects and used multivariable logistic regression with a standard test-negative design to estimate the vaccine effectiveness for preventing influenza-related hospitalizations. RESULTS: Among 4,755 hospitalized patients with COPD, 4,198 (88.3%) patients with known vaccination status were analyzed. The adjusted analysis showed a 38% reduction in influenza-related hospitalizations in vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals. Influenza-positive patients (n = 1,833 [38.5%]) experienced higher crude mortality (9.7% vs 7.9%; P = .047) and critical illness (17.2% vs 12.1%; P < .001) compared with influenza-negative patients. Risk factors for mortality in influenza-positive patients included age > 75 years (OR, 3.7 [95% CI, 0.4-30.3]), cardiac comorbidity (OR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.3-3.2]), residence in long-term care (OR, 2.6 [95% CI, 1.5-4.5]), and home oxygen use (OR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.6-5.1]). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination significantly reduced influenza-related hospitalization among patients with COPD. Initiatives to increase vaccination uptake and early use of antiviral agents among patients with COPD could reduce influenza-related hospitalization and critical illness and improve health-care costs in this vulnerable population. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.govNo.:NCT01517191; URL www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Burden of herpes zoster in 16 selected immunocompromised populations in England: a cohort study in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink 2000-2012.

OBJECTIVES: Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by reactivation of varicella-zoster virus which remains latent in individuals after a varicella infection. It is expected that HZ will be more frequent in immunocompromised (IC) individuals than in immunocompetent (IC-free). This study assessed the incidence rate (IR) of HZ in individuals with a wide set of IC conditions and in IC-free individuals. SETTING: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in England using data (January 2000 to March 2012) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linkage to the Hospital Episodes Statistics. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 621 588 individuals with 16 selected IC conditions and a gender/age-matched cohort of IC-free individuals were identified. The IC conditions included haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT), solid organ transplant, malignancies, autoimmune diseases and users of immunosuppressive medications. OUTCOMES: IR of HZ per 1000 person-years (PY) was estimated. Proportions of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and other HZ complications within 90 days of HZ onset were also estimated among patients with HZ. Risk factors for PHN in IC individuals with HZ were assessed by a multivariate regression model. RESULTS: The overall IR of HZ in the IC cohort was 7.8/1000 PY (95% CI 7.7 to 7.9), increasing with age from 3.5/1000 PY (3.4-3.7) in individuals aged 18-49 years to 12.6/1000 PY (12.2-13.0) in individuals aged ≥80 years. This IR in the IC-free cohort was 6.2/1000 PY (6.1-6.3). The overall IR of HZ varied across IC conditions, ranging from 5.3 (5.1-5.5) in psoriasis to 41.7/1000 PY (35.7-48.4) in HSCT. The proportions of PHN and other HZ complications were 10.7% (10.2-11.1) and 2.9% (2.7-3.2) in the IC cohort, but 9.1% (8.7-9.5) and 2.3% (2.1-2.6) in the IC-free cohort, respectively. CONCLUSION: IC population contributes to the public health burden of HZ in England. Vaccination might be the most preferable HZ preventive measure for the IC population.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness to prevent influenza-related hospitalizations and serious outcomes in Canadian adults over the 2011/12 through 2013/14 influenza seasons: A pooled analysis from the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Serious Outcomes Surveillance (SOS Network).

BACKGROUND: Ongoing assessment of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is critical to inform public health policy. This study aimed to determine the VE of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) for preventing influenza-related hospitalizations and other serious outcomes over three consecutive influenza seasons. METHODS: The Serious Outcomes Surveillance (SOS) Network of the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) conducted active surveillance for influenza in adults ≥16 years (y) of age during the 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 seasons in hospitals across Canada. A test-negative design was employed: cases were polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive for influenza; controls were PCR-negative for influenza and were matched to cases by date, admission site, and age (≥65 y or <65 y). All cases and controls had demographic and clinical characteristics (including influenza immunization status) obtained from the medical record. VE was estimated as 1-OR (odds ratio) in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated patients × 100%. The primary outcome was VE of TIV for preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization; secondary outcomes included VE of TIV for preventing influenza-related intensive care unit (ICU) admission/mechanical ventilation, and influenza-related death. RESULTS: Overall, 3394 cases and 4560 controls were enrolled; 2078 (61.2%) cases and 2939 (64.5%) controls were ≥65 y. Overall matched, adjusted VE was 41.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 34.4-48.3%); corresponding VE in adults ≥65 y was 39.3% (95% CI: 29.4-47.8%) and 48.0% (95% CI: 37.5-56.7%) in adults <65 y, respectively. VE for preventing influenza-related ICU admission/mechanical ventilation in all ages was 54.1% (95% CI: 39.8-65.0%); in adults ≥65 y, VE for preventing influenza-related death was 74.5% (95% CI: 44.0-88.4%). CONCLUSIONS: While effectiveness of TIV to prevent serious outcomes varies year to year, we demonstrate a statistically significant and clinically important TIV VE for preventing hospitalization and other serious outcomes over three seasons. Public health messaging should highlight the overall benefit of influenza vaccines over time while acknowledging year to year variability. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01517191.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-related hospitalization during a season with mixed outbreaks of four influenza viruses: a test-negative case-control study in adults in Canada.

BACKGROUND: The Serious Outcomes Surveillance (SOS) Network was established to monitor seasonal influenza complications among hospitalized Canadian adults and to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe outcomes. Here we report age- and strain-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing severe outcomes during a season characterized by mixed outbreaks of four different influenza strains. METHODS: This prospective, multicentre, test-negative case-control study evaluated the VE of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza-hospitalization in adults aged ≥16 years (all adults) and adults aged 16-64 years (younger adults). The SOS Network identified hospitalized patients with diagnoses potentially attributable to influenza during the 2011/12 influenza season. Swabs collected at admission were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) or viral culture to discriminate influenza cases (positive) from controls (negative). VE was calculated as 1-odds ratio (OR) of vaccination in cases versus controls × 100. RESULTS: Overall, in all adults, the unadjusted and adjusted VEs of TIV against influenza-hospitalization were 41.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 26.0, 54.3), and 42.8% (95% CI: 23.8, 57.0), respectively. In younger adults (16-64 years), the unadjusted and adjusted VEs of TIV against influenza-hospitalization were 35.8% (95% CI: 4.5, 56.8) and 33.2% (95% CI: -6.7, 58.2), respectively. In the all adults group, adjusted VE against influenza A/H1N1 was 72.5% (95% CI: 30.5, 89.1), against A/H3N2 was 86.1% (95% CI: 40.1, 96.8), against B/Victoria was 40.5% (95% CI: -28.9, 72.6), and against B/Yamagata was 32.3% (95% CI: -8.3, 57.7). The adjusted estimate of early season VE (from November 1 to March 11) was 54.4% (95% CI: 29.7-70.4), which was higher than late season (from March 11 to May 25) VE estimate (VE: 29.7%, 95% CI: -5.3, 53.1). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that TIV was highly effective against A viruses and moderately effective against B viruses during a mild season characterised by co-circulation of four influenza strains in Canada. Findings underscore the need to provide VE assessment by subtype/lineage as well as the timing of vaccination (early season vs late season) to accurately evaluate vaccine performance and thus guide public health decision-making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01517191. Registration was retrospective and the date of registration was January 17, 2012.

The Importance of Frailty in the Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Related Hospitalization in Elderly People.

Background: Influenza is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among older adults. Even so, effectiveness of influenza vaccine for older adults has been reported to be lower than for younger adults, and the impact of frailty on vaccine effectiveness (VE) and outcomes is uncertain. We aimed to study VE against influenza hospitalization in older adults, focusing on the impact of frailty. Methods: We report VE of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in people ≥65 years of age hospitalized during the 2011-2012 influenza season using a multicenter, prospective, test-negative case-control design. A validated frailty index (FI) was used to measure frailty. Results: Three hundred twenty cases and 564 controls (mean age, 80.6 and 78.7 years, respectively) were enrolled. Cases had higher baseline frailty than controls (P = .006). In the fully adjusted model, VE against influenza hospitalization was 58.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.2%-73.2%). The contribution of frailty was important; adjusting for frailty alone yielded a VE estimate of 58.7% (95% CI, 36.2%-73.2%). VE was 77.6% among nonfrail older adults and declined as frailty increased. Conclusions: Despite commonly held views that VE is poor in older adults, we found that TIV provided good protection against influenza hospitalization in older adults who were not frail, though VE diminished as frailty increased. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01517191.

Post-authorisation passive enhanced safety surveillance of seasonal influenza vaccines: protocol of a pilot study in England.

AIM: To pilot enhanced safety surveillance of seasonal influenza vaccine meeting the European Medicines Agency (EMA) requirement to rapidly detect a significant increase in the frequency or severity of adverse events of interest (AEIs), which may indicate risk from the new season's vaccine. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective passive enhanced safety surveillance combining data collection from adverse drug reaction (ADR) cards with automated collection of pseudonymised routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data. This study builds on a feasibility study carried out at the start of the 2015/2016 influenza season. We will report influenza vaccine exposure and any AEIs reported via ADR card or recorded directly into the EHR, from the commencement of influenza vaccination and ends as specified by EMA (30 November 2016). SETTING: Ten volunteer English general practices, primarily using the GSK influenza vaccines. They had selected this vaccine in advance of the study. PARTICIPANTS: People who receive a seasonal influenza vaccine, in each age group defined in EMA interim guidance: 6 months to 5 years, 6-12 years, 13-17 years, 18-65 years and >65 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure is the rate of AEIs occurring within 7 days postvaccination, using passive surveillance of general practitioner (GP) EHR systems enhanced by a card-based ADR reporting system. Extracted data will be presented overall by brand (Fluarix Tetra vs others), by age strata and risk groups. The secondary outcome measure is the vaccine uptake among the subjects registered in the enrolled general practices. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was granted by the Proportionate Review Sub-committee of the North East-Newcastle & North Tyneside 2 on 5 August 2016. The study received approval from the Health Research Authority on 1 September 2016. We will produce an interim analysis within 8 weeks, and an end-of-study report, which will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals.

Challenges in conducting post-authorisation safety studies (PASS): A vaccine manufacturer's view.

Post-authorisation safety studies (PASS) of vaccines assess or quantify the risk of adverse events following immunisation that were not identified or could not be estimated pre-licensure. The aim of this perspective paper is to describe the authors' experience in the design and conduct of twelve PASS that contributed to the evaluation of the benefit-risk of vaccines in real-world settings. We describe challenges and learnings from selected PASS of rotavirus, malaria, influenza, human papillomavirus and measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccines that assessed or identified potential or theoretical risks, which may lead to changes to risk management plans and/or to label updates. Study settings include the use of large healthcare databases and de novo data collection. PASS methodology is influenced by the background incidence of the outcome of interest, vaccine uptake, availability and quality of data sources, identification of the at-risk population and of suitable comparators, availability of validated case definitions, and the frequent need for case ascertainment in large databases. Challenges include the requirement for valid exposure and outcome data, identification of, and access to, adequate data sources, and mitigating limitations including bias and confounding. Assessing feasibility is becoming a key step to confirm that study objectives can be met in a timely manner. PASS provide critical information for regulators, public health agencies, vaccine manufacturers and ultimately, individuals. Collaborative approaches and synergistic efforts between vaccine manufacturers and key stakeholders, such as regulatory and public health agencies, are needed to facilitate access to data, and to drive optimal study design and implementation, with the aim of generating robust evidence.