Reproductive Factors and Thyroid Cancer Risk: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.

Background: Women are three times more likely to be diagnosed with thyroid cancer than men, with incidence rates per 100,000 in the United States of 20.2 for women and 7.4 for men. Several reproductive and hormonal factors have been proposed as possible contributors to thyroid cancer risk, including age at menarche, parity, age at menopause, oral contraceptive use, surgical menopause, and menopausal hormone therapy. Our study aimed to investigate potential reproductive/hormonal factors in a multiethnic population. Methods: Risk factors for thyroid cancer were evaluated among female participants (n = 118,344) of the Multiethnic Cohort Study. The cohort was linked to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer incidence and statewide death certificate files in Hawaii and California, with 373 incident papillary thyroid cancer cases identified. Exposures investigated include age at menarche, parity, first pregnancy outcome, birth control use, and menopausal status and type. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain relative risk (RR) of papillary thyroid cancer and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Covariates included age, race and ethnicity, reproductive history, body size, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Results: We observed a statistically significant increased risk of papillary thyroid cancer for oophorectomy (adjusted RR 1.58, 95% CI: 1.26, 1.99), hysterectomy (adjusted RR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.33, 2.04), and surgical menopause (adjusted RR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.97), and decreased risk for first live birth at ≤20 years of age versus nulliparity (adjusted RR 0.66, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.93). These associations did not vary by race and ethnicity (p het > 0.44). Conclusion: The reproductive risk factors for papillary thyroid cancer reported in the literature were largely confirmed in all racial and ethnic groups in our multiethnic population, which validates uniform obstetric and gynecological practice.

Genome-wide association analyses of breast cancer in women of African ancestry identify new susceptibility loci and improve risk prediction.

We performed genome-wide association studies of breast cancer including 18,034 cases and 22,104 controls of African ancestry. Genetic variants at 12 loci were associated with breast cancer risk (P < 5 × 10-8), including associations of a low-frequency missense variant rs61751053 in ARHGEF38 with overall breast cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.48) and a common variant rs76664032 at chromosome 2q14.2 with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (OR = 1.30). Approximately 15.4% of cases with TNBC carried six risk alleles in three genome-wide association study-identified TNBC risk variants, with an OR of 4.21 (95% confidence interval = 2.66-7.03) compared with those carrying fewer than two risk alleles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60 for the prediction of breast cancer risk, which outperformed PRS derived using data from females of European ancestry. Our study markedly increases the population diversity in genetic studies for breast cancer and demonstrates the utility of PRS for risk prediction in females of African ancestry.

Using genome and transcriptome data from African-ancestry female participants to identify putative breast cancer susceptibility genes.

African-ancestry (AA) participants are underrepresented in genetics research. Here, we conducted a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) in AA female participants to identify putative breast cancer susceptibility genes. We built genetic models to predict levels of gene expression, exon junction, and 3' UTR alternative polyadenylation using genomic and transcriptomic data generated in normal breast tissues from 150 AA participants and then used these models to perform association analyses using genomic data from 18,034 cases and 22,104 controls. At Bonferroni-corrected P < 0.05, we identified six genes associated with breast cancer risk, including four genes not previously reported (CTD-3080P12.3, EN1, LINC01956 and NUP210L). Most of these genes showed a stronger association with risk of estrogen-receptor (ER) negative or triple-negative than ER-positive breast cancer. We also replicated the associations with 29 genes reported in previous TWAS at P < 0.05 (one-sided), providing further support for an association of these genes with breast cancer risk. Our study sheds new light on the genetic basis of breast cancer and highlights the value of conducting research in AA populations.

Plant-based dietary patterns and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Plant-based dietary patterns have been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), some cancers, and related mortality in U.S. POPULATIONS: However, the quality of plant foods has rarely been considered in the association between plant-based diets and mortality, especially in a population with various racial and ethnic backgrounds. We investigated whether the adherence to plant-based dietary patterns and the healthiness of plant foods are associated with mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer and evaluated how the association varies by race and ethnicity. METHODS: A total of 144,729 African American, Japanese American, Latino, Native Hawaiian, and White men and women who participated in the Multiethnic Cohort Study (1993-2019) were included. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI of mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer across quintiles of three plant-based diet scores: overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), and unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI). RESULTS: Over an average 21 years of follow-up, we identified 65,087 deaths, including 18,663 from CVD and 16,171 from cancer. Comparing the highest versus lowest quintiles, greater scores of PDI and hPDI were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in both men (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89 for PDI; HR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85-0.91 for hPDI; both P for trend <0.0001) and women (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.93 for PDI; HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.83-0.89 for hPDI; both P for trend <0.0001). An increased risk of all-cause mortality with uPDI was observed only in women (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07-1.15, P for trend <0.0001; P for heterogeneity by sex = 0.019). A similar trend was shown for CVD mortality with a significant increase in risk with uPDI for both men and women. PDI was associated with a lower risk of cancer mortality in men (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.80-0.92, P for trend <0.0001), while neither hPDI nor uPDI was associated in either sex. Compared with the other racial and ethnic groups within each sex, the association of uPDI with all-cause mortality was stronger in White men (P for heterogeneity by race and ethnicity = 0.009) and weaker in Latino women (P for heterogeneity = 0.002). CONCLUSION: A healthy plant-based dietary pattern emphasizing the quality of plant foods was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in both men and women, although the magnitude of the associations varied across racial and ethnic groups.

Hierarchical joint analysis of marginal summary statistics-Part I: Multipopulation fine mapping and credible set construction.

Recent advancement in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comes from not only increasingly larger sample sizes but also the shift in focus towards underrepresented populations. Multipopulation GWAS increase power to detect novel risk variants and improve fine-mapping resolution by leveraging evidence and differences in linkage disequilibrium (LD) from diverse populations. Here, we expand upon our previous approach for single-population fine-mapping through Joint Analysis of Marginal SNP Effects (JAM) to a multipopulation analysis (mJAM). Under the assumption that true causal variants are common across studies, we implement a hierarchical model framework that conditions on multiple SNPs while explicitly incorporating the different LD structures across populations. The mJAM framework can be used to first select index variants using the mJAM likelihood with different feature selection approaches. In addition, we present a novel approach leveraging the ideas of mediation to construct credible sets for these index variants. Construction of such credible sets can be performed given any existing index variants. We illustrate the implementation of the mJAM likelihood through two implementations: mJAM-SuSiE (a Bayesian approach) and mJAM-Forward selection. Through simulation studies based on realistic effect sizes and levels of LD, we demonstrated that mJAM performs well for constructing concise credible sets that include the underlying causal variants. In real data examples taken from the most recent multipopulation prostate cancer GWAS, we showed several practical advantages of mJAM over other existing multipopulation methods.

MUSSEL: Enhanced Bayesian polygenic risk prediction leveraging information across multiple ancestry groups.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are now showing promising predictive performance on a wide variety of complex traits and diseases, but there exists a substantial performance gap across populations. We propose MUSSEL, a method for ancestry-specific polygenic prediction that borrows information in summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) across multiple ancestry groups via Bayesian hierarchical modeling and ensemble learning. In our simulation studies and data analyses across four distinct studies, totaling 5.7 million participants with a substantial ancestral diversity, MUSSEL shows promising performance compared to alternatives. For example, MUSSEL has an average gain in prediction R2 across 11 continuous traits of 40.2% and 49.3% compared to PRS-CSx and CT-SLEB, respectively, in the African ancestry population. The best-performing method, however, varies by GWAS sample size, target ancestry, trait architecture, and linkage disequilibrium reference samples; thus, ultimately a combination of methods may be needed to generate the most robust PRSs across diverse populations.

Disentangling the relationships of body mass index and circulating sex hormone concentrations in mammographic density using Mendelian randomization.

PURPOSE: Mammographic density phenotypes, adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), are strong predictors of breast cancer risk. BMI is associated with mammographic density measures, but the role of circulating sex hormone concentrations is less clear. We investigated the relationship between BMI, circulating sex hormone concentrations, and mammographic density phenotypes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: We applied two-sample MR approaches to assess the association between genetically predicted circulating concentrations of sex hormones [estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)], BMI, and mammographic density phenotypes (dense and non-dense area). We created instrumental variables from large European ancestry-based genome-wide association studies and applied estimates to mammographic density phenotypes in up to 14,000 women of European ancestry. We performed analyses overall and by menopausal status. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with non-dense area (IVW: ß = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.58, 2.00; p = 9.57 × 10-63) and inversely associated with dense area (IVW: ß = - 0.37; 95% CI = - 0.51,- 0.23; p = 4.7 × 10-7). We observed weak evidence for an association of circulating sex hormone concentrations with mammographic density phenotypes, specifically inverse associations between genetically predicted testosterone concentration and dense area (ß = - 0.22; 95% CI = - 0.38, - 0.053; p = 0.009) and between genetically predicted estradiol concentration and non-dense area (ß = - 3.32; 95% CI = - 5.83, - 0.82; p = 0.009), although results were not consistent across a range of MR approaches. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a positive causal association between BMI and mammographic non-dense area and an inverse association between BMI and dense area. Evidence was weaker and inconsistent for a causal effect of circulating sex hormone concentrations on mammographic density phenotypes. Based on our findings, associations between circulating sex hormone concentrations and mammographic density phenotypes are weak at best.

Dietary Fiber Intake and Risk of Advanced and Aggressive Forms of Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 15 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of prostate cancer (PC) and PC mortality is limited. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between intakes of dietary fiber overall and by food source and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of PC. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of the primary data in 15 cohorts in three continents. Baseline dietary fiber intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire or diet history in each study. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: 842,149 men were followed for up to 9-22 years between 1985-2009 across studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures were advanced (stage T4, N1, or M1 or PC mortality), advanced restricted (excluded men with missing stage and those with localized PC who died of PC), high grade (Gleason score ≥8 or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated) PC, and PC mortality. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (MVHR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: Intake of dietary fiber overall, from fruits, and from vegetables was not associated with risk of advanced (n=4,863), advanced restricted (n=2,978), or high-grade PC (n=9,673) or PC mortality (n=3,097). Dietary fiber intake from grains was inversely associated with advanced PC (MVHR comparing the highest vs. lowest quintile=0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.93), advanced restricted PC (MVHR=0.85, 95%CI 0.74-0.97), and PC mortality (MVHR=0.78, 95%CI 0.68-0.89); statistically significant trends were noted for each of these associations (p≤0.03), while a null association was observed for high grade PC for the same comparison (MVHR=1.00, 95%CI 0.93-1.07). The comparable results were 1.06 (95%CI 1.01-1.10, p-value, test for trend=0.002) for localized (n=35,199) and 1.05 (95%CI 0.99-1.11, , p-value, test for trend=0.04) for low/intermediate grade (n=34,366) PC. CONCLUSIONS: Weak nonsignificant associations were observed between total dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced forms of PC, high grade PC, and PC mortality. High dietary fiber intake from grains was associated with a modestly lower risk of advanced forms of PC and PC mortality.

Thyroid Cancer Survival in the Multiethnic Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The US 5-year survival rate after thyroid cancer (TC) diagnosis is over 95%. Our aim was to investigate survival differences by sex and race and ethnicity in a multiethnic US population. DESIGN: In the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study, a total of 605 incident TC cases were identified by linkage to HI and CA statewide cancer registries. Cox models were performed to compare the risk of all-cause mortality among TC cases by sex and race and ethnicity, with adjustment for age, first course of treatment, baseline body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Survival among cases was also compared to matched MEC controls with no thyroid cancer. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 10.1 years, 250 deaths occurred among TC cases, including 63 deaths attributed to thyroid cancer. The median survival was 14.7 years, and the 5-year age-adjusted overall survival was 84.4% for female cases and 68.7% for male cases (p < 0.0001, HR 2.28 (95% CI: 1.72, 3.01)). Age-adjusted survival was lower among African American, Native Hawaiian, and Filipino cases, compared to Japanese American cases, with Whites and Latinos being intermediate. Men and Filipinos were found to have excess mortality due to thyroid cancer compared to controls (adjusted HR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.74; HR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.53, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Sex and racial and ethnic disparities in survival among TC cases were similar to those found in the general population. However, cases with TC had an excess risk of death among males and for Filipinos.

Combining magnetic resonance imaging with a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score to improve identification of clinically significant prostate cancer.

Multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) has emerged as an important tool for identifying clinically significant prostate cancer. We examined if the addition of a 400-variant multi-ancestry polygenic risk score (PRS) to mpMRI has the potential to improve identification. Based on data from 24 617 men from the Mass General Brigham Biobank, we identified 1243 men who underwent mpMRI. Men in the top PRS quartile were more likely to have clinically significant prostate cancer (47.1% vs 28.6% in the bottom PRS quartile, adjusted relative proportion 1.72 [95% CI = 1.35 to 2.19]). Both among men with a positive and a negative mpMRI, men in the top PRS quartile had the highest frequency of clinically significant cancer. In a constructed scenario for selecting men to undergo biopsy, use of the PRS lowered the frequency of missed clinically significant cancers from 9.1% to 5.9%. Our study provides initial support for using the PRS to improve identification of potentially lethal prostate cancer.

Avocado and Guacamole Consumption and Colorectal Cancer Risk: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.

Dietary fiber and phytonutrients can protect against colorectal cancer, yet their consumption is low in the US. Avocados are a potential source of these beneficial nutrients. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the relationship between avocados/guacamole consumption and colorectal cancer risk in the Multiethnic Cohort Study. We assessed avocados/guacamole consumption by using a food frequency questionnaire. We classified participants into three consumer groups: <1 serving/month, 1-3 servings/month, and ≥1 serving/week with one serving defined as ½ avocado or ½ cup. Colorectal cancer cases were ascertained through the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards models of colorectal cancer were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals across avocados/guacamole intake groups in each sex overall and by anatomic subsite (i.e., right colon, left colon, and rectum) and race and ethnicity. Of 192,651 eligible participants, 62.8% reported consuming <1 serving/month avocados/guacamole, 26.7% reported 1-3 servings/month, and 10.5% reported ≥1 serving/week. When adjusted for relevant covariates, there was no significant association with incident colorectal cancer overall, for subsites, or within racial and ethnic subgroups (all p for trend ≥ 0.06). In this large prospective cohort study, we did not find that consumption of avocados/guacamole was associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Identification of Genes with Rare Loss of Function Variants Associated with Aggressive Prostate Cancer and Survival.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a substantial cause of mortality among men globally. Rare germline mutations in BRCA2 have been validated robustly as increasing risk of aggressive forms with a poorer prognosis; however, evidence remains less definitive for other genes. OBJECTIVE: To detect genes associated with PrCa aggressiveness, through a pooled analysis of rare variant sequencing data from six previously reported studies in the UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (UKGPCS). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We accumulated a cohort of 6805 PrCa cases, in which a set of ten candidate genes had been sequenced in all samples. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We examined the association between rare putative loss of function (pLOF) variants in each gene and aggressive classification (defined as any of death from PrCa, metastatic disease, stage T4, or both stage T3 and Gleason score ≥8). Secondary analyses examined staging phenotypes individually. Cox proportional hazards modelling and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to further examine the relationship between mutation status and survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: We observed associations between PrCa aggressiveness and pLOF mutations in ATM, BRCA2, MSH2, and NBN (odds ratio = 2.67-18.9). These four genes and MLH1 were additionally associated with one or more secondary analysis phenotype. Carriers of germline mutations in these genes experienced shorter PrCa-specific survival (hazard ratio = 2.15, 95% confidence interval 1.79-2.59, p = 4 × 10-16) than noncarriers. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides further support that rare pLOF variants in specific genes are likely to increase aggressive PrCa risk and may help define the panel of informative genes for screening and treatment considerations. PATIENT SUMMARY: By combining data from several previous studies, we have been able to enhance knowledge regarding genes in which inherited mutations would be expected to increase the risk of more aggressive PrCa. This may, in the future, aid in the identification of men at an elevated risk of dying from PrCa.

Age at lung cancer diagnosis in females versus males who never smoke by race and ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: We characterized age at diagnosis and estimated sex differences for lung cancer and its histological subtypes among individuals who never smoke. METHODS: We analyzed the distribution of age at lung cancer diagnosis in 33,793 individuals across 8 cohort studies and two national registries from East Asia, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Student's t-tests were used to assess the study population differences (Δ years) in age at diagnosis comparing females and males who never smoke across subgroups defined by race/ethnicity, geographic location, and histological subtypes. RESULTS: We found that among Chinese individuals diagnosed with lung cancer who never smoke, females were diagnosed with lung cancer younger than males in the Taiwan Cancer Registry (n = 29,832) (Δ years = -2.2 (95% confidence interval (CI):-2.5, -1.9), in Shanghai (n = 1049) (Δ years = -1.6 (95% CI:-2.9, -0.3), and in Sutter Health and Kaiser Permanente Hawai'i in the US (n = 82) (Δ years = -11.3 (95% CI: -17.7, -4.9). While there was a suggestion of similar patterns in African American and non-Hispanic White individuals. the estimated differences were not consistent across studies and were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of sex differences for age at lung cancer diagnosis among individuals who never smoke.

The Association of Alcohol Outlet Density with Alcohol Intake: The Multiethnic Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Neighborhood characteristics have been shown to influence lifestyle behaviors. Here we characterized alcohol outlet density in Los Angeles County, California, and Hawaii and assessed the association of alcohol outlet density with self-reported alcohol intake in the Multiethnic Cohort. METHOD: Participants (n=178,977) had their addresses geocoded, at cohort entry (1993-1996), and appended to block group-level alcohol outlet densities (on- and off-premises). Multinomial logistic regression was performed to assess the association between self-reported alcohol intake and on- and off-premise alcohol outlet densities by each state. Stratified analysis was conducted by sex, race, and ethnicity. RESULTS: Overall, we did not find associations between alcohol outlet density and self-reported alcohol intake in Los Angeles County, but we found that on-premise alcohol outlets were associated with 59% (OR=1.59, 95% CI:1.29,1.96) increased odds of consuming >2 drinks per day in Hawaii. Women living in neighborhoods with high density of on-premise alcohol outlets (Los Angeles County OR=1.15, 95% CI: 0.95,1.40) and (Hawaii OR=2.07, 95% CI: 1.43,3.01) had an increased odds of >2 drinks per day. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that neighborhood factors are associated with individual level behaviors and that there may be a need for multilevel interventions.

Epigenome-wide association study of total nicotine equivalents in multiethnic current smokers from three prospective cohorts.

The impact of tobacco exposure on health varies by race and ethnicity and is closely tied to internal nicotine dose, a marker of carcinogen uptake. DNA methylation is strongly responsive to smoking status and may mediate health effects, but study of associations with internal dose is limited. We performed a blood leukocyte epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of urinary total nicotine equivalents (TNEs; a measure of nicotine uptake) and DNA methylation measured using the MethylationEPIC v1.0 BeadChip (EPIC) in six racial and ethnic groups across three cohort studies. In the Multiethnic Cohort Study (discovery, n = 1994), TNEs were associated with differential methylation at 408 CpG sites across >250 genomic regions (p < 9 × 10-8). The top significant sites were annotated to AHRR, F2RL3, RARA, GPR15, PRSS23, and 2q37.1, all of which had decreasing methylation with increasing TNEs. We identified 45 novel CpG sites, of which 42 were unique to the EPIC array and eight annotated to genes not previously linked with smoking-related DNA methylation. The most significant signal in a novel gene was cg03748458 in MIR383;SGCZ. Fifty-one of the 408 discovery sites were validated in the Singapore Chinese Health Study (n = 340) and the Southern Community Cohort Study (n = 394) (Bonferroni corrected p < 1.23 × 10-4). Significant heterogeneity by race and ethnicity was detected for CpG sites in MYO1G and CYTH1. Furthermore, TNEs significantly mediated the association between cigarettes per day and DNA methylation at 15 sites (average 22.5%-44.3% proportion mediated). Our multiethnic study highlights the transethnic and ethnic-specific methylation associations with internal nicotine dose, a strong predictor of smoking-related morbidities.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Population-Attributable Fractions of Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Previous studies estimated that modifiable risk factors explain up to 40% of the dementia cases in the United States and that this population-attributable fraction (PAF) differs by race and ethnicity-estimates of future impact based on the risk factor prevalence in contemporary surveys. The aim of this study was to determine the race-specific and ethnicity-specific PAF of late-onset Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRDs) based on the risk factor prevalence and associations observed on the same individuals within a prospective cohort. METHODS: Data were from Multiethnic Cohort Study participants (African American, Japanese American, Latino, Native Hawaiian, and White) enrolled in Medicare Fee-for-Service. We estimated the PAF based on the prevalence of risk factors at cohort baseline and their mutually adjusted association with subsequent ADRD incidence. Risk factors included low educational attainment and midlife exposures to low neighborhood socioeconomic status, unmarried status, history of hypertension, stroke, diabetes or heart disease, smoking, physical inactivity, short or long sleep duration, obesity, and low-quality diet, as well as APOE ε4 for a subset. RESULTS: Among 91,881 participants (mean age 59.3 at baseline, 55.0% female participants), 16,507 incident ADRD cases were identified from Medicare claims (1999-2016, mean follow-up 9.3 years). The PAF for nongenetic factors combined was similar in men (24.0% [95% CI 21.3-26.6]) and women (22.8% [20.3-25.2]) but varied across Japanese American (14.2% [11.1-17.2]), White (21.9% [19.0-24.7]), African American (27.8% [22.3-33.0]), Native Hawaiian (29.3% [21.0-36.7]), and Latino (33.3% [27.5-38.5]) groups. The combined PAF was attenuated when accounting for competing risk of death, in both men (10.4%) and women (13.9%) and across racial and ethnic groups (4.7%-25.5%). The combined PAF was also different by age at diagnosis and ADRD subtypes, higher for younger (65-74 years: 43.2%) than older (75-84 years: 32.4%; ≥85 years: 11.3%) diagnoses and higher for vascular or unspecified ADRD than for AD or Lewy body dementia. An additional PAF of 11.8% (9.9-13.6) was associated with APOE ε4, which together with nongenetic risk factors accounted for 30.6% (25.8-35.1) of ADRD. DISCUSSION: Known risk factors explained about a third of the ADRD cases but with unequal distributions across racial and ethnic groups.

Adaption and National Validation of a Tool for Predicting Mortality from Other Causes Among Men with Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: An electronic health record-based tool could improve accuracy and eliminate bias in provider estimation of the risk of death from other causes among men with nonmetastatic cancer. OBJECTIVE: To recalibrate and validate the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Charlson Comorbidity Index (VACS-CCI) to predict non-prostate cancer mortality (non-PCM) and to compare it with a tool predicting prostate cancer mortality (PCM). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An observational cohort of men with biopsy-confirmed nonmetastatic prostate cancer, enrolled from 2001 to 2018 in the national US Veterans Health Administration (VA), was divided by the year of diagnosis into the development (2001-2006 and 2008-2018) and validation (2007) sets. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Mortality (all cause, non-PCM, and PCM) was evaluated. Accuracy was assessed using calibration curves and C statistic in the development, validation, and combined sets; overall; and by age (<65 and 65+ yr), race (White and Black), Hispanic ethnicity, and treatment groups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Among 107 370 individuals, we observed 24 977 deaths (86% non-PCM). The median age was 65 yr, 4947 were Black, and 5010 were Hispanic. Compared with CCI and age alone (C statistic 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.68), VACS-CCI demonstrated improved validated discrimination (C statistic 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.75 for non-PCM). The prostate cancer mortality tool also discriminated well in validation (C statistic 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83). Both were well calibrated overall and within subgroups. Owing to missing data, 18 009/125 379 (14%) were excluded, and VACS-CCI should be validated outside the VA prior to outside application. CONCLUSIONS: VACS-CCI is ready for implementation within the VA. Electronic health record-assisted calculation is feasible, improves accuracy over age and CCI alone, and could mitigate inaccuracy and bias in provider estimation. PATIENT SUMMARY: Veterans Aging Cohort Study Charlson Comorbidity Index is ready for application within the Veterans Health Administration. Electronic health record-assisted calculation is feasible, improves accuracy over age and Charlson Comorbidity Index alone, and might help mitigate inaccuracy and bias in provider estimation of the risk of non-prostate cancer mortality.

Adiposity, Weight Change, and Urinary Melatonin Levels among Men in the Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Low levels of 6-sulfatoxymelatonin, the primary urinary metabolite of melatonin, have been linked to cancer and cardiometabolic outcomes in White and female populations. METHODS: We examined the association between adulthood adiposity and 6-sulfatoxymelatonin levels in a racially and ethnically diverse population. Our study included 4,078 men in the Multiethnic Cohort with adiposity measurements at enrollment (1993-1996) and biomarkers measured in urines collected in 1995 and 2005. Multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate the percent change in 6-sulfatoxymelatonin levels and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Associations were examined separately by racial/ethnic group. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity varied by race and ethnicity, from 10% for Japanese American men to 34% for Native Hawaiian men. Compared with men with normal body mass index (BMI), men who were overweight (-7.8%; 95% CI, -11.9 to -3.5%) and obese (-18.1%; 95% CI, -23.2 to -12.6%) had significantly lower 6-sulfatoxymelatonin levels adjusting for potential confounding factors. Increasing weight gain in adulthood was also associated with lower 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (Ptrend < 0.0001). The inverse associations for BMI and weight change were qualitatively similar across racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is inversely associated with melatonin in a racially diverse population. This finding is relevant given higher rates of obesity among Black, Native Hawaiian, and Latino men, as well as potential racial and ethnic differences in circadian function. IMPACT: Melatonin may be a relevant biomarker among obesity-associated malignancies and could shed light on a potential mechanism of cancer disparities.

Increasing risk of hepatocellular carcinoma with successive generations in the United States among Mexican American adults: The Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: US-born Latinos have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than foreign-born Latinos. Acculturation to unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and an immigrant self-selection effect may play a role. In this study, the authors examined the influence of generational status on HCC risk among Mexican American adults. METHODS: The analytic cohort included 31,377 self-reported Mexican Americans from the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC). Generational status was categorized as: first-generation (Mexico-born; n = 13,382), second-generation (US-born with one or two parents born in Mexico; n = 13,081), or third-generation (US-born with both parents born in the United States; n = 4914). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to examine the association between generational status and HCC incidence. RESULTS: In total, 213 incident HCC cases were identified during an average follow-up of 19.5 years. After adjusting for lifestyle and neighborhood-level risk factors, second-generation and third-generation Mexican Americans had a 37% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.92) and 66% (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.11-2.49) increased risk of HCC, respectively, compared with first-generation Mexican Americans (p for trend = 0.012). The increased risk associated with generational status was mainly observed in males (second-generation vs. first-generation: HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.05-2.44]; third-generation vs. first-generation: HR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.29-3.37]). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing generational status of Mexican Americans is associated with a higher risk of HCC. Further studies are needed to identify factors that contribute to this increased risk.

Association of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals With the Metabolic Syndrome Among Women in the Multiethnic Cohort Study.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease, a leading cause of death among women. MetS is a diagnosis of at least 3 of the following: high blood pressure, high fasting glucose, high triglycerides, high waist circumference, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Epidemiological studies suggest that endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) exposure is positively associated with individual components of MetS, but evidence of an association between EDCs and MetS remains inconsistent. In a cross-sectional analysis within the Multiethnic Cohort Study, we evaluated the association between 4 classes of urinary EDCs (bisphenol A [BPA], triclosan, parabens, and phthalates) and MetS among 1728 women. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% CI for the association between tertiles of each EDC and MetS adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), racial and ethnic group, and breast cancer status. Stratified analyses by race and ethnicity and BMI were conducted. MetS was identified in 519 (30.0%) women. We did not detect statistically significant associations of MetS with BPA, triclosan, or phthalate metabolite excretion. MetS was inversely associated with total parabens (Ptrend = .002). Although there were suggestive inverse associations between EDCs and MetS among Latino and African American women, and women with BMI < 30 kg/m2, there was no statistically significant heterogeneity in associations by race and ethnicity or BMI. These findings suggest an inverse association between parabens and MetS in larger multiethnic studies. Prospective analyses to investigate suggested differences in associations by race, ethnicity, and BMI are warranted.