Trends in survival of older care home residents in England: A 10-year multi-cohort study.

Increases in longevity combined with a policy emphasis on caring for older people in their own homes could have widened or narrowed the survival gap between care home and community-dwelling resident older people. Knowledge of pre-COVID-19 trends in this gap is needed to assess the longer-term impacts of the pandemic. We provide evidence for England on recent trends in 1, 2 and 3-year mortality amongst care home residents aged 65+ compared with similar community-dwelling residents. We use the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nationally representative primary care database. For each of the ten years from 2006 to 2015, care home and community-dwelling residents aged 65+ were identified and matched in the ratio 1:3, according to age, gender, area deprivation and region. Cox survival analyses were used to estimate mortality risks for care home residents in comparison with similar community-dwelling people, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and region. The study sample consisted of ten overlapping cohorts averaging 5495 care home residents per cohort. Adjusted mortality risks increased over the study period for care home residents while decreasing slightly for matched community-dwelling residents. The relative risks (RRs) of mortality associated with care home residence were higher for younger ages and shorter follow-up periods, in all years. Over the decade, the RRs increased, most at younger ages and for shorter follow-up periods (e.g. for the age group 65-74 years, 1-year average RR increased by 61% from 5.4 to 8.8, while for those aged 85-94 years and over, 3-year RR increased by 22% from 1.3 to 1.6). Thus the survival gap between older care home and community-dwelling residents has been widening, especially at younger ages. In due course, it will be possible to establish to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in further growth in this gap.

Market concentration, supply, quality and prices paid by local authorities in the English care home market.

We investigate the impact of exogenous local conditions which favor high market concentration on supply, price and quality in local markets for care homes for older people in England. We extend the existing literature in: (i) considering supply capacity as a market outcome alongside price and quality; (ii) taking account of the chain structure of care home supply and differences between the nursing home and residential care home sectors; (iii) using an econometric approach based on reduced form relationships that treats market concentration as a jointly determined outcome of a complex market. We find that areas susceptible to a high degree of market concentration tend to have greatly restricted supply of care home places and (to a lesser extent) a higher average public cost, than areas susceptible to low degree of market concentration. There is no significant evidence that conditions favoring high market concentration affect average care home quality.

COVID-19: Implications for the Support of People with Social Care Needs in England.

This perspective examines the challenge posed by COVID-19 for social care services in England and describes responses to this challenge. People with social care needs experience increased risks of death and deteriorating physical and mental health with COVID-19. Social isolation introduced to reduce COVID-19 transmission may adversely affect well-being. While the need for social care rises, the ability of families and social care staff to provide support is reduced by illness and quarantine, implying reductions in staffing levels. Consequently, COVID-19 could seriously threaten care availability and quality. The government has sought volunteers to work in health and social care to help address the threat posed by staff shortages at a time of rising need, and the call has achieved an excellent response. The government has also removed some barriers to effective coordination between health and social care, while introducing measures to promote the financial viability of care providers. The pandemic presents unprecedented challenges that require well-co-coordinated responses across central and local government, health services, and non-government sectors.

Birth-cohort trends in older-age functional disability and their relationship with socio-economic status: Evidence from a pooling of repeated cross-sectional population-based studies for the UK.

We examine birth-cohort trends behind recent changes in the prevalence of functional disability in the older population living in private households in the United Kingdom (UK). By using three different socio-economic indicators available in the nationally representative cross-sectional data on older individuals interviewed between 2002 and 2012 in the Family Resource Survey (FRS) (96,733 respondents), we investigate the extent to which the overall trends have been more favourable among more advantaged than disadvantaged socioeconomic groups. Compared to the cohort of people born in 1924, successive cohorts of older men have lower odds of having at least one functional difficulty (FD), whereas no significant trend was found for women. Among people with at least one FD, however, the number of disabilities increases for each successive cohort of older women (incidence rate ratio 1.027, 95% confidence interval 1.023 to 1.031, P < 0.001) and men (incidence rate ratio 1.028, 95% confidence interval 1.024 to 1.033, P < 0.001). By allowing interactions between birth cohort and SES indicators, a significant increasing cohort trend in the number of reported FDs was found among older men and women at lower SES, whereas an almost stable pattern was observed at high SES. Our results suggest that the overall slightly increasing birth-cohort trend in functional difficulties observed among current cohorts of older people in the UK hides underlying increases among low SES individuals and a relative small reduction among high SES individuals. Further studies are needed to understand the causes of such trends and to propose appropriate interventions. However, if the SES differentials in trends in FDs observed in the past continue, this could have important implications for the future costs of the public system of care and support for people with care needs.

Do household surveys give a coherent view of disability benefit targeting?: a multisurvey latent variable analysis for the older population in Great Britain.

We compare three major UK surveys, the British Household Panel Survey, Family Resources Survey and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, in terms of the picture that they give of the relationship between disability and receipt of the attendance allowance benefit. Using the different disability indicators that are available in each survey, we use a structural equation approach involving a latent concept of disability in which probabilities of receiving attendance allowance depend on disability. Despite major differences in design, once sample composition has been standardized through statistical matching, the surveys deliver similar results for the model of disability and receipt of attendance allowance. Provided that surveys offer a sufficiently wide range of disability indicators, the detail of disability measurement appears relatively unimportant.

The role of care home fees in the public costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to care home funding for older people in England.

In England, Local Authorities (LAs) contribute to the care home fees of two-thirds of care home residents aged 65+ who pass a means test. LAs typically pay fees below those faced by residents excluded from state support. Most proposals for reform of the means test would increase the proportion of residents entitled to state support. If care homes receive the LA fee for more residents, they might increase fees for any remaining self-funders. Alternatively, the LA fee might have to rise. We use two linked simulation models to examine how alternative assumptions on post-reform fees affect projected public costs and financial gains to residents of three potential reforms to the means test. Raising the LA fee rate to maintain income per resident would increase the projected public cost of the reforms by between 22% and 72% in the base year. It would reduce the average gain to care home residents by between 8% and 12%. Raising post-reform fees for remaining self-funders or requiring pre-reform self-funders to meet the difference between the LA and self-funder fees, reduces the gains to residents by 28-37%. For one reform, residents in the highest income quintile would face losses if the self-funder fee rises.

Methods used to identify and measure resource use in economic evaluations: a systematic review of questionnaires for older people.

This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of full or partial economic evaluations that included questions to service users or their carers to elicit information on the types, amounts or costs of community-based formal social care support provided to people 65 years and older. We have found that studies seldom report use of published validated questions for eliciting information from older people in the UK about their use of formal social care services. Given the political prominence of the debate over funding social care for older people, there remains a need for analysis of policy options. This requires reliable data on the receipt and payment for care. We recommend the development of improved questions on care that are clear, robust and up-to-date with developments in policy and practice.

The effect of lengthening life expectancy on future pension and long-term care expenditure in England, 2007 to 2032.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this analysis is to examine the effect of different assumptions about future trends in life expectancy (LE) on the sustainability of the pensions and long-term care (LTC) systems. The context is the continuing debate in England about the reform of state pensions and the reform of the system for financing care and support. METHODS: Macro and micro simulation models are used to make projections of future public expenditure on LTC services for older people and on state pensions and related benefits, making alternative assumptions on increases in future LE. The projections cover the period 2007 to 2032 and relate to England. RESULTS: Results are presented for a base case and for specified variants to the base case. The base case assumes that the number of older people by age and gender rises in line with the Office for National Statistics' principal 2006-based population projection for England. It also assumes no change in disability rates, no changes in patterns of care, no changes in policy and rises in unit care costs and real average earnings by 2 per cent per year. Under these assumptions public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to rise from 4.7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007 to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC from 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2032. Under a very high LE variant to the GAD principal projection, however, public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to reach 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2032. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers developing reform proposals need to recognise that, since future LE is inevitably uncertain and since variant assumptions about future LE significantly affect expenditure projections, there is a degree of uncertainty about the likely impact of demographic pressures on future public expenditure on pensions and LTC.

Older carers in the UK: are there really gender differences? New analysis of the individual sample of anonymised records from the 2001 UK Census.

The aim of this paper is to disentangle the role of gender and partnership status in the caring commitments of older people (age 65 and over). Logistic and interval regression models are applied to individual records from the 2001 UK Census to estimate: (1) the impact of gender on the likelihood of being a career; (2) the impact of gender on the hours of care provided; and (3) the impact of gender on the likelihood of being a career for different groups defined by marital status. In the general population the share of women who provide care is higher than the corresponding share of men, but men have a higher probability of being carers among people aged 65 or above. This phenomenon is largely explained by gender differences in marital status. As older men are more likely to be married, and married people are more likely to be carers, we observe higher levels of caring among older men. Once differences in marital status are accounted for, the relationship between gender and care provision among older people is overturned. In particular, we find that, without controlling for household size, limiting long-term illness or marital status, the odds of being an informal career are lower for older women than men [odds ratio (OR): 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83-0.87]. Once these factors are accounted for, older women have higher odds of caring than older men (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.09-1.15). Restricting the sample to care providers, and controlling for the same factors, it is shown that older women supply on average 3.77 (95% CI: 3.14-4.40) more hours of care per week than older men. Gender differences in the provision of care among older people disappear only when considering married individuals and adjusting for the presence of other household residents affected by a limiting long-term illness.

Does socio-economic advantage lead to a longer, healthier old age?

The effect of socio-economic disadvantage on mortality is well documented and differences exist even at older ages. However, whether this translates into differences in the quality of life lived at older ages is less well studied, and in particular in the proportion of remaining life spent without ill health (healthy life expectancy), a key UK Government target. Although there have been studies exploring socio-economic differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) worldwide, these have tended to focus on a single measure of socio-economic advantage, for example, education, race, social class or income, with the majority based on cross-sectional data from younger populations. In this prospective study we examine differences in DFLE and total life expectancy (TLE) at older ages using a range of measures of socio-economic advantage. We use a longitudinal study of 1480 participants aged 75 years or over in 1988 registered with a UK primary care practice, who were followed up until 2003 with measurements at up to seven time points. Disability was defined as difficulty with any one of five activities of daily living. The largest differences in DFLE for both men and women were found for housing tenure. Women aged 75 years living in owned or mortgaged property could expect to live 1 year extra without disability compared with those living in rented accommodation, while for men the difference was almost 1.5 years. The effect of socio-economic advantage on disability-free and total life expectancies appeared to be larger for men than women. In women, socio-economic advantage had more effect on DFLE than total life expectancy for all indicators considered, thus the socio-economically advantaged experienced a compression of disability.

Socioeconomic factors associated with the onset of disability in older age: a longitudinal study of people aged 75 years and over.

Although the association between socioeconomic status and mortality is well documented, there is less work focusing on the association with morbidity in older people. This is partly due to the difficulties of measuring socioeconomic status at older ages. The work that does exist tends to use cross-sectional data and objective measures of socioeconomic status such as education, social class or income. However, these standard measures may be less relevant for older people. In this study, we explore the association between socioeconomic status and disability in older people using a range of individual, household and area level indicators of socioeconomic status, including a subjective measure of adequacy of income. We use cross-sectional data of 1470 participants aged 75 years or over on 31/12/1987 and registered with a UK primary care practice. Of these 719 participants with no disability at baseline were followed up until 2003 with measurements at up to seven time points to determine onset of disability. Disability was defined as difficulty with any one of five activities of daily living. In cross-sectional multivariate analysis, age, housing tenure, living status and a subjective measure of income adequacy were associated with prevalence of disability. In longitudinal analyses, self-perceived adequacy of income showed the strongest association with onset of disability; with those reporting difficulties managing having a median age of onset 80.5 years, 7 years younger than those who felt their income was adequate (median age 87.8 years). The prospective association between self-perceived adequacy of income and onset of disability decreased with age. This subjective measure of income adequacy may signify difficulties in budgeting, but could also capture differences in objective indicators of status not recorded in this study, such as wealth. Further work is needed to explore what causes older people to experience difficulty in managing their money and to understand the mechanisms behind its impact on their physical health.

Standard of living in the retirement survey: a predictor of six-year functional limitation onset and mortality in women, but not in men from ages 55 - 69 years.

PURPOSE: To investigate the predictive validity for health decline of a standard of living, a measure that combines basic necessities and consumer durables. METHOD: A nationally representative sample of those aged 55-69 years was interviewed at home in the Great Britain Retirement and Retirement Plans Survey, (1988; n=3,541). In 1994, 2,247 were re-interviewed, response rate being 70% of survivors. Relationships between socioeconomic status and health decline were investigated using polytomous logistic regression modelling. The outcomes were onset of functional limitation and mortality. RESULTS: Standard of living was an independent predictor of 6-year functional limitation onset (Odds Ratio compared to good standard of living 2.2; 95% Confidence Interval 1.3-3.8) and mortality (OR=4.6; 95% CI 2.3-8.9) in women, with age, household type, educational qualifications and social class taken into account. However, in men, weaker associations were largely accounted for by differences in education and social class (adjusted OR for functional limitation onset 1.0; 95% CI 0.5-1.9; adjusted OR for mortality 1.4; 95% CI 0.6-2.9). A combined indicator of housing tenure and property value was also an independent predictor of functional limitation onset in women. CONCLUSIONS: Poor standard of living identifies women but not men at risk of health decline who are missed by social class and educational level. Measures of current home-based material resources are a useful addition to minimum datasets for monitoring health inequalities.

Changes in the distribution of marital age differences in England and Wales, 1963 to 1998.

Assumptions about the 'typical' age gap between spouses underlie much social policy (e.g. the five-year difference in men's and women's state pension ages). In order to test the basis for these assumptions, detailed marriage registration statistics were obtained for 1963 and 1998, for England and Wales. Age differences between spouses were calculated and analysed by year, age at marriage and previous marital status. The median age gap hardly changed between 1963 and 1998 but this concealed considerable increase in the proportion of marriages where the man was younger than the woman or--to a lesser extent--where the man was six or more years older.

The effect of older people's economic resources on care home entry under the United Kingdom's long-term care financing system.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how older people's economic resources affect their likelihood of care home entry in the United Kingdom. METHODS: In 1988, income, home ownership, and health data were collected for 1,425 people aged 75+. Participants received up to five subsequent health assessments before the study endpoint (1999), in which care home entry was also recorded. Care home entry was identified from death certificates for those who died. Using proportional hazards regression, the effect of home ownership and income on the risk of care home entry was estimated, controlling for predisposing, enabling, and need factors, and health service utilization. RESULTS: Age, living alone, activities of daily living restriction, cognitive impairment, poor/fair self-perceived health, and contact with services increased the risk of care home entry. Home ownership decreased it. Gender was not a significant predictor of care home entry once other factors were controlled for, and no significant effect was found for income. DISCUSSION: UK public authorities can require older home owners to use the value of their homes to pay for institutional but not community-based care, thus producing a financial incentive to place home owners in institutional settings. However, we find that home ownership reduces the likelihood of care home entry, suggesting that other factors dominate the decision process.