Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii.

In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.

Long-term results of trapeziometacarpal silicone arthroplasty.

Long-term results of trapeziometacarpal (TMC) joint silicone arthroplasty were evaluated. From 1975 to 1990, 90 TMC joint silicone implants were placed in 85 patients with TMC joint arthritis caused by osteoarthritis and inflammatory arthritis. Sixty-two implants in 58 patients were available for follow-up evaluation averaging 16.4 years (range, 10-25 years) with a 10-year minimum. Patient satisfaction; range of motion; grip, key pinch, and tip pinch strengths; and radiographs were recorded. Eighty-four percent of the thumbs had satisfactory results with good-to-excellent pain relief and function. Grip, key pinch, and tip pinch strengths increased. The number of thumb tips able to touch the palmar base of the small finger increased. Subluxation was apparent in 19% of implants but was not clinically important; however, implant fracture occurred in 6% and required revision. None of the 62 implants had frank silicone synovitis. Silicone arthroplasty seems to be a reliable option for disabling TMC joint arthritis and is associated with a high degree of patient satisfaction.