Ancient reindeer mitogenomes reveal island-hopping colonisation of the Arctic archipelagos.

Climate warming at the end of the last glacial period had profound effects on the distribution of cold-adapted species. As their range shifted towards northern latitudes, they were able to colonise previously glaciated areas, including remote Arctic islands. However, there is still uncertainty about the routes and timing of colonisation. At the end of the last ice age, reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus) expanded to the Holarctic region and colonised the archipelagos of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Earlier studies have proposed two possible colonisation routes, either from the Eurasian mainland or from Canada via Greenland. Here, we used 174 ancient, historical and modern mitogenomes to reconstruct the phylogeny of reindeer across its whole range and to infer the colonisation route of the Arctic islands. Our data shows a close affinity among Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya reindeer. We also found tentative evidence for positive selection in the mitochondrial gene ND4, which is possibly associated with increased heat production. Our results thus support a colonisation of the Eurasian Arctic archipelagos from the Eurasian mainland and provide some insights into the evolutionary history and adaptation of the species to its High Arctic habitat.

A palaeogenomic investigation of overharvest implications in an endemic wild reindeer subspecies.

Overharvest can severely reduce the abundance and distribution of a species and thereby impact its genetic diversity and threaten its future viability. Overharvest remains an ongoing issue for Arctic mammals, which due to climate change now also confront one of the fastest changing environments on Earth. The high-arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus), endemic to Svalbard, experienced a harvest-induced demographic bottleneck that occurred during the 17-20th centuries. Here, we investigate changes in genetic diversity, population structure, and gene-specific differentiation during and after this overharvesting event. Using whole-genome shotgun sequencing, we generated the first ancient and historical nuclear (n = 11) and mitochondrial (n = 18) genomes from Svalbard reindeer (up to 4000 BP) and integrated these data with a large collection of modern genome sequences (n = 90) to infer temporal changes. We show that hunting resulted in major genetic changes and restructuring in reindeer populations. Near-extirpation followed by pronounced genetic drift has altered the allele frequencies of important genes contributing to diverse biological functions. Median heterozygosity was reduced by 26%, while the mitochondrial genetic diversity was reduced only to a limited extent, likely due to already low pre-harvest diversity and a complex post-harvest recolonization process. Such genomic erosion and genetic isolation of populations due to past anthropogenic disturbance will likely play a major role in metapopulation dynamics (i.e., extirpation, recolonization) under further climate change. Our results from a high-arctic case study therefore emphasize the need to understand the long-term interplay of past, current, and future stressors in wildlife conservation.

Adaptation to the High-Arctic island environment despite long-term reduced genetic variation in Svalbard reindeer.

Typically much smaller in number than their mainland counterparts, island populations are ideal systems to investigate genetic threats to small populations. The Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) is an endemic subspecies that colonized the Svalbard archipelago ca. 6,000-8,000 years ago and now shows numerous physiological and morphological adaptations to its arctic habitat. Here, we report a de-novo chromosome-level assembly for Svalbard reindeer and analyze 133 reindeer genomes spanning Svalbard and most of the species' Holarctic range, to examine the genomic consequences of long-term isolation and small population size in this insular subspecies. Empirical data, demographic reconstructions, and forward simulations show that long-term isolation and high inbreeding levels may have facilitated the reduction of highly deleterious-and to a lesser extent, moderately deleterious-variation. Our study indicates that long-term reduced genetic diversity did not preclude local adaptation to the High Arctic, suggesting that even severely bottlenecked populations can retain evolutionary potential.

Contrasting genomic consequences of anthropogenic reintroduction and natural recolonization in high-arctic wild reindeer.

Anthropogenic reintroduction can supplement natural recolonization in reestablishing a species' distribution and abundance. However, both reintroductions and recolonizations can give rise to founder effects that reduce genetic diversity and increase inbreeding, potentially causing the accumulation of genetic load and reduced fitness. Most current populations of the endemic high-arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) originate from recent reintroductions or recolonizations following regional extirpations due to past overharvesting. We investigated and compared the genomic consequences of these two paths to reestablishment using whole-genome shotgun sequencing of 100 Svalbard reindeer across their range. We found little admixture between reintroduced and natural populations. Two reintroduced populations, each founded by 12 individuals around four decades (i.e. 8 reindeer generations) ago, formed two distinct genetic clusters. Compared to the source population, these populations showed only small decreases in genome-wide heterozygosity and increases in inbreeding and lengths of runs of homozygosity. In contrast, the two naturally recolonized populations without admixture possessed much lower heterozygosity, higher inbreeding and longer runs of homozygosity, possibly caused by serial population founder effects and/or fewer or more genetically related founders than in the reintroduction events. Naturally recolonized populations can thus be more vulnerable to the accumulation of genetic load than reintroduced populations. This suggests that in some organisms even small-scale reintroduction programs based on genetically diverse source populations can be more effective than natural recolonization in establishing genetically diverse populations. These findings warrant particular attention in the conservation and management of populations and species threatened by habitat fragmentation and loss.

The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer.

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.

Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation.

Sea ice loss may have dramatic consequences for population connectivity, extinction-colonization dynamics, and even the persistence of Arctic species subject to climate change. This is of particular concern in face of additional anthropogenic stressors, such as overexploitation. In this study, we assess the population-genetic implications of diminishing sea ice cover in the endemic, high Arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) by analyzing the interactive effects of landscape barriers and reintroductions (following harvest-induced extirpations) on their metapopulation genetic structure. We genotyped 411 wild reindeer from 25 sampling sites throughout the entire subspecies' range at 19 microsatellite loci. Bayesian clustering analysis showed a genetic structure composed of eight populations, of which two were admixed. Overall population genetic differentiation was high (mean FST  = 0.21). Genetic diversity was low (allelic richness [AR] = 2.07-2.58; observed heterozygosity = 0.23-0.43) and declined toward the outer distribution range, where populations showed significant levels of inbreeding. Coalescent estimates of effective population sizes and migration rates revealed strong evolutionary source-sink dynamics with the central population as the main source. The population genetic structure was best explained by a landscape genetics model combining strong isolation by glaciers and open water, and high connectivity by dispersal across winter sea ice. However, the observed patterns of natural isolation were strongly modified by the signature of past harvest-induced extirpations, subsequent reintroductions, and recent lack of sea ice. These results suggest that past and current anthropogenic drivers of metapopulation dynamics may have interactive effects on large-scale ecological and evolutionary processes. Continued loss of sea ice as a dispersal corridor within and between island systems is expected to increase the genetic isolation of populations, and thus threaten the evolutionary potential and persistence of Arctic wildlife.

More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics.

Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic population models for High-Arctic wild reindeer, we show that more frequent rain-on-snow events actually reduce extinction risk and stabilize population dynamics due to interactions with age structure and density dependence. Extreme rain-on-snow events mainly suppress vital rates of vulnerable ages at high population densities, resulting in a crash and a new population state with resilient ages and reduced population sensitivity to subsequent icy winters. Thus, observed responses to single extreme events are poor predictors of population dynamics and persistence because internal density-dependent feedbacks act as a buffer against more frequent events.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic.

Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.