Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.

Developing and validating a new national remote health advice syndromic surveillance system in England.

Background: Public Health England (PHE) coordinates a suite of real-time national syndromic surveillance systems monitoring general practice, emergency department and remote health advice data. We describe the development and informal evaluation of a new syndromic surveillance system using NHS 111 remote health advice data. Methods: NHS 111 syndromic indicators were monitored daily at national and local level. Statistical models were applied to daily data to identify significant exceedances; statistical baselines were developed for each syndrome and area using a multi-level hierarchical mixed effects model. Results: Between November 2013 and October 2014, there were on average 19 095 NHS 111 calls each weekday and 43 084 each weekend day in the PHE dataset. There was a predominance of females using the service (57%); highest percentage of calls received was in the age group 1-4 years (14%). This system was used to monitor respiratory and gastrointestinal infections over the winter of 2013-14, the potential public health impact of severe flooding across parts of southern England and poor air quality episodes across England in April 2014. Conclusions: This new system complements and supplements the existing PHE syndromic surveillance systems and is now integrated into the routine daily processes that form this national syndromic surveillance service.

Developing a new syndromic surveillance system for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Syndromic surveillance is vital for monitoring public health during mass gatherings. The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games represents a major challenge to health protection services and community surveillance. In response to this challenge the Health Protection Agency has developed a new syndromic surveillance system that monitors daily general practitioner out-of-hours and unscheduled care attendances. This new national system will fill a gap identified in the existing general practice-based syndromic surveillance systems by providing surveillance capability of general practice activity during evenings/nights, over weekends and public holidays. The system will complement and supplement the existing tele-health phone line, general practitioner and emergency department syndromic surveillance systems. This new national system will contribute to improving public health reassurance, especially to meet the challenges of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Use of a large general practice syndromic surveillance system to monitor the progress of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic 2009 in the UK.

The Health Protection Agency/QSurveillance national surveillance system utilizes QSurveillance®, a recently developed general practitioner database covering over 23 million people in the UK. We describe the spread of the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic 2009 using data on consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI), respiratory illness and prescribing for influenza from 3400 contributing general practices. Daily data, provided from 27 April 2009 to 28 January 2010, were used to give a timely overview for those managing the pandemic nationally and locally. The first wave particularly affected London and the West Midlands with a peak in ILI in week 30. Children aged between 1 and 15 years had consistently high consultation rates for ILI. Daily ILI rates were used for modelling national weekly case estimates. The system enabled the 'real-time' monitoring of the pandemic to a small geographical area, linking morbidity and prescribing for influenza and other respiratory illnesses.

How representative is the population covered by the RCGP spotter practice scheme? Using Geographical Information Systems to assess.

BACKGROUND: The Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service (WRS) is a network of sentinel general practices providing weekly data on illnesses diagnosed in general practice across England and Wales. The WRS contributes to the surveillance of infectious disease, most notably influenza. We use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) techniques to establish whether the practice populations of the current WRS are representative of the general population. METHODS: This study compares the practice population with the general population using the Department of the Environment, Transport and Regions (DETR) Indices of Deprivation 2000 scores for English wards. RESULTS: Comparisons at the national level reveal that the WRS population is less deprived than the general population. At a supra-regional level the WRS practice population shows the same North-South differences as the national population, but the proportions of patients in the more deprived and least deprived wards are more exaggerated in the WRS population. A supplementary analysis reveals that the WRS has no patients in the most deprived wards of London. CONCLUSION: The differences have implications for the future recruitment of practices to the WRS. Previous studies have demonstrated the effect of socio-economic deprivation on GP consultation rates. To ensure that the consultation rates reported by the WRS will better reflect consulting patterns in the general population the WRS will need to recruit practices with patients in the most deprived areas of the South and less deprived areas in the North of England. This study demonstrates the value of GIS in the establishment of surveillance systems.

Can calls to NHS Direct be used for syndromic surveillance?

This study assessed whether NHS Direct could be a useful source of surveillance data for communicable diseases, using influenza as a pilot condition. Data on the weekly total number of calls and the number from people reporting influenza-like symptoms to three pilot NHS Direct sites were collected between November 1999 and March 2000. NHS Direct data were compared with routinely available influenza surveillance data. The NHS Direct call rate peaked at 331 per 100,000 population in week 52 of 1999. The percentage of calls for 'influenza-like illness' (one site) peaked at 15% during week 51. Information about weekly call numbers to NHS Direct could be produced in a timely way. It was not clear whether the observed peak in calls reflected a true increase in influenza or whether it was the result of an increase in calls over the Christmas/Millennium holiday period due to more difficulty in accessing other services. The ability to assess the proportion of calls made directly by, or on behalf of, each age group will be of vital importance in interpreting seasonal respiratory disease.