Factors associated with emergency admission for people dying from cancer in Northern Ireland: an observational data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Many people living with cancer are admitted as an emergency, some just prior to diagnosis and others in their last year of life. Factors associated with accessing emergency care for people dying of cancer are complex and not well understood. This can make it difficult to have the resources and staffing in place to best care for individuals in their last year of life and their families. METHODS: This study uses routinely collected administrative data from people who died of cancer in N. Ireland (NI) during 2015 and explores how personal characteristics (e.g., gender, age) and disease related factors (e.g., tumour site, cancer stage at initial diagnosis) were associated with having an emergency admission to hospital in the last year and the last 28 days of their lives, using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Almost three in four people had at least one emergency admission in the last year of life, and over one in three had an emergency admission the last 28 days of life. Patterns were similar for both time outcomes with males, people with haematological, lung or brain cancers, younger persons, those diagnosed with late-stage cancer, and people diagnosed close to time of death, being significantly more likely to have an emergency admission. While there was no significant association between deprivation and emergency admission rates, those living in urban areas were more likely to have an emergency admission in their last month of life compared to rural dwellers. Late diagnosis was evident with 538 people (12.8% of all deaths from cancer) being diagnosed within one month of death and 1242 (29%) within 3 months of death. CONCLUSION: The high level of emergency admissions points to gaps in routine end-of-life care, and the need for additional training for hospital staff including frontline emergency department (ED) staff who are often the 'gatekeepers' to emergency inpatient care for people living with cancer. The levels of late diagnosis indicate a need for increased population awareness of cancer symptoms and system change to promote earlier diagnosis.

Beyond high-risk: analysis of the outcomes of extreme-risk patients in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit.

Patients who require emergency laparotomy are defined as high risk if their 30-day predicted risk of mortality is ≥ 5%. Despite a large difference in the characteristics of patients with a mortality risk score of between 5% and 50%, these outcomes are aggregated by the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). Our aim was to describe the outcomes of the cohort of patients at extreme risk of death, which we defined as having a NELA-predicted 30-day mortality of ≥ 50%. All patients enrolled in the NELA database between December 2012 and 2020 were included. We compared patient characteristics; length of hospital stay; rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre; and 90-day survival in extreme-risk groups (predicted ≥ 50%) and high-risk patients (predicted 5-49%). Of 161,337 patients, 5193 (3.2%) had a predicted mortality of ≥ 50%. When patients were further subdivided, 2437 (47%) had predicted mortality of 50-59% (group 50-59); 1484 (29%) predicted mortality of 60-69% (group 60-69); 840 (16%) predicted mortality of 70-79% (group 70-79); and 423 (8%) predicted mortality of ≥ 80% (group 80+). Extreme-risk patients were significantly more likely to have been admitted electively than high-risk patients (p < 0.001). Length of stay increased from a median (IQR [range]) of 26 (16-43 [0-271]) days in group 50-59 to 35 (21-56 [0-368]) days in group 80+, compared with 17 (10-30 [0-1136]) days for high-risk patients. Rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre were higher in extreme-risk groups compared with high-risk patients (11% vs. 8%). The 90-day survival was 43% in group 50-59, 34% in group 60-69, 27% in group 70-79 and 17% in group 80+. These data underscore the need for a differentiated approach when discussing risk with patients at extreme risk of mortality following an emergency laparotomy. Clinicians should focus on patient priorities on quantity and quality of life during informed consent discussions before surgery. Future work should extend beyond the immediate postoperative period to encompass the longer-term outcomes (survival and function) of patients who have emergency laparotomies.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Quantitative futility in emergency laparotomy: an exploration of early-postoperative death in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative futility is an appraisal of the risk of failure of a treatment. For those who do not survive, a laparotomy has provided negligible therapeutic benefit and may represent a missed opportunity for palliation. The aim of this study was to define a timeframe for quantitative futility in emergency laparotomy and investigate predictors of futility using the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database. METHODS: A two-stage methodology was used; stage one defined a timeframe for futility using an online survey and steering group discussion; stage two applied this definition to patients enrolled in NELA December 2013-December 2020 for analysis. Futility was defined as all-cause mortality within 3 days of emergency laparotomy. Baseline characteristics of this group were compared to all others. Multilevel logistic regression was carried out with potentially clinically important predictors defined a priori. RESULTS: Quantitative futility occurred in 4% of patients (7442/180,987). Median age was 74 years (range 65-81 years). Median NELA risk score was 32.4% vs. 3.8% in the surviving cohort (p < 0.001). Early mortality patients more frequently presented with sepsis (p < 0.001). Significant predictors of futility included age, arterial lactate and cardiorespiratory co-morbidity. Frailty was associated with a 38% increased risk of early mortality (95% CI 1.22-1.55). Surgery for intestinal ischaemia was associated with a two times greater chance of futile surgery (OR 2.67; 95% CI 2.50-2.85). CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative futility after emergency laparotomy is associated with quantifiable risk factors available to decision-makers preoperatively. These findings should be incorporated qualitatively by the multidisciplinary team into shared decision-making discussions with extremely high-risk patients.

The management of adult appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic: an interim analysis of a UK cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute appendicitis (AA) is the most common general surgical emergency. Early laparoscopic appendicectomy is the gold-standard management. SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) brought concerns of increased perioperative mortality and spread of infection during aerosol generating procedures: as a consequence, conservative management was advised, and open appendicectomy recommended when surgery was unavoidable. This study describes the impact of the first weeks of the pandemic on the management of AA in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Patients 18 years or older, diagnosed clinically and/or radiologically with AA were eligible for inclusion in this prospective, multicentre cohort study. Data was collected from 23rd March 2020 (beginning of the UK Government lockdown) to 1st May 2020 and included: patient demographics, COVID status; initial management (operative and conservative); length of stay; and 30-day complications. Analysis was performed on the first 500 cases with 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: The patient cohort consisted of 500 patients from 48 sites. The median age of this cohort was 35 [26-49.75] years and 233 (47%) of patients were female. Two hundred and seventy-one (54%) patients were initially treated conservatively; with only 26 (10%) cases progressing to an operation. Operative interventions were performed laparoscopically in 44% (93/211). Median length of hospital stay was significantly reduced in the conservatively managed group (2 [IQR 1-4] days vs. 3 [2-4], p < 0.001). At 30 days, complications were significantly higher in the operative group (p < 0.001), with no deaths in any group. Of the 159 (32%) patients tested for COVID-19 on admission, only 6 (4%) were positive. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has changed the management of acute appendicitis in the UK, with non-operative management shown to be safe and effective in the short-term. Antibiotics should be considered as the first line during the pandemic and perhaps beyond.

COVID-19: looking beyond the peak. Challenges and tips for radiologists in follow-up of a novel patient cohort.

As the coronavirus pandemic evolves, the focus of radiology departments has begun to change. The acute phase of imaging a new disease entity whilst rationalising radiology services in the face of lockdown has passed. Radiologists are now becoming familiar with the complications of COVID-19, particularly the lung parenchymal and pulmonary vascular sequelae and are considering the impact follow-up imaging may have on departments already struggling with a backlog of suspended imaging in the face of reduced capacity. This review from the British Society of Thoracic Imaging explores both the thoracic and extra-thoracic complications of COVID-19, recognising the importance of a holistic approach to patient follow-up. The British Thoracic Society guidelines for respiratory follow-up of COVID-19 will be discussed, together with newly developed reporting templates, which aim to provide consistency for clinicians as well as an opportunity for longer-term data collection.

Validation of the British Society of Thoracic Imaging guidelines for COVID-19 chest radiograph reporting.

AIM: To validate the British Society of Thoracic Imaging issued guidelines for the categorisation of chest radiographs for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reporting regarding reproducibility amongst radiologists and diagnostic performance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Chest radiographs from 50 patients with COVID-19, and 50 control patients with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 from prior to the emergence of the novel coronavirus were assessed by seven consultant radiologists with regards to the British Society of Thoracic Imaging guidelines. RESULTS: The findings show excellent specificity (100%) and moderate sensitivity (44%) for guideline-defined Classic/Probable COVID-19, and substantial interobserver agreement (Fleiss' k=0.61). Fair agreement was observed for the "Indeterminate for COVID-19" (k=0.23), and "Non-COVID-19" (k=0.37) categories; furthermore, the sensitivity (0.26 and 0.14 respectively) and specificity (0.76, 0.80) of these categories for COVID-19 were not significantly different (McNemar's test p=0.18 and p=0.67). CONCLUSION: An amalgamation of the categories of "Indeterminate for COVID-19" and "Non-COVID-19" into a single "not classic of COVID-19" classification would improve interobserver agreement, encompass patients with a similar probability of COVID-19, and remove the possibility of labelling patients with COVID-19 as "Non-COVID-19", which is the presenting radiographic appearance in a significant minority (14%) of patients.

Pre-surgical lung biopsy in management of solitary pulmonary nodules: a cost effectiveness analysis.

Objectives: Tissue diagnosis prior to thoracic surgery with curative intent is vital in thoracic lesions concerning for lung cancer. Methods of obtaining tissue diagnosis are variable within the United Kingdom.Methods: We performed a model-based analysis to identify the most efficient method of diagnosis using both a health care perspective. Our analysis concerns adults in the UK presenting with a solitary pulmonary nodule suspicious for a primary lung malignancy, patients with more advanced disease (for example lymph node spread) were not considered. Model assumptions were derived from published sources and expert reviews, cost data were obtained from healthcare research group cost estimates (2016-17). Outcomes were measured in terms of costs experienced to healthcare trusts.Results: Our results show that CT guided percutaneous lung biopsy using an ambulatory approach, is the most cost-effective method of diagnosis. Indeed, using this approach, trust experience approximately half of the cost of an approach of surgical lung biopsy performed at the time of potential resection ('frozen section').Limitations and conclusions: Whilst this analysis is limited to the specific scenario of a solitary pulmonary nodule, these findings have implications for the implementation of lung cancer screening in the UK, which is likely to result in increased numbers of patients with such early disease.

A survey of UK percutaneous lung biopsy practice: current practices in the era of early detection, oncogenetic profiling, and targeted treatments.

AIM: To ascertain current percutaneous lung biopsy practices around the UK. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A web-based survey was sent to all British Society of Thoracic Imaging (BSTI) and British Society of Interventional Radiology (BSIR) members (May 2017) assessing all aspects of lung biopsy practice. Responses were collected anonymously. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-nine completed responses were received (28.8% response rate). Of the respondents, 48.5% worked in a teaching hospital and 51.5% in a district general hospital, while 32.6% (78/239) were specialist thoracic radiologists, 29.2% (70/239) "general" radiologists with a thoracic subspecialty interest, and 28% (67/239) interventional radiologists. Of the respondents, 30.1% (72/239) did not require pre-biopsy lung function tests (PFTs); 45.6% (108/237) stopped aspirin before the procedure; 97.5% primarily use computed tomography (CT) guidance for biopsy and 88.7% (212/239) perform core needle biopsy (CNB); and 86.6% of radiologists use a co-axial technique. There was wide variation in the number of samples routinely taken with most radiologists performing 1-2 passes (55.9%) or 3-4 passes (40.8%). Sixty-four percent reported using chest drain prevention techniques to minimise the impact of iatrogenic pneumothorax, with needle aspiration most frequent (43.9%). Timing of post-biopsy chest radiography (CXR), performed by 95.8% (228/239), also varied greatly: most commonly at either 1 hour (23%), 2 hours (24.7%), or 4 hours (22.6%). Moreover, the time of patient discharge after uncomplicated biopsy was variable, although the majority (66.1%) discharge patients after ≥4 hours. CONCLUSION: There are striking variations among surveyed UK radiologists performing lung biopsy in decision-making, pre-biopsy work-up, post-biopsy monitoring, management of pneumothorax, and discharge. The results suggest a need for new updated national percutaneous lung biopsy guidelines.

Solitary fibrous tumour of pleura: CT differentiation of benign and malignant types.

AIM: To analyse and compare the computed tomography (CT) features of benign and malignant types of histopathologically proven cases of solitary fibrous tumours of pleura (SFTP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of preoperative CT images of 28 cases of histopathologically proven and classified SFTP from three participating institutions was performed. Patient demographics and lesion characteristics including size, borders, presence of a pedicle, extension into the fissure, attenuation, enhancement, pleural effusion, and calcifications were recorded and correlated with the final histopathological diagnosis. Type and results of preoperative biopsy were also recorded. Follow-up imaging and the clinical charts were reviewed to identify recurrence. RESULTS: Out of 28 cases (15 women and 13 men), 18 were proven to be benign and 10 were malignant. The mean age of patients was 58.1±15.9 and 66.5±11.8 years (p=0.1564) for benign and malignant tumours, respectively. The median (interquartile range) diameter was 6.05 (3.2-10.9) cm for benign and 15.7 (7.1-17.5) cm for malignant type tumours (p=0.0291). Tumours had lobulate borders in 28% (5/18) of benign cases and in 80% (8/10) of malignant cases (p=0.0163). Extension into adjacent fissure was seen in 22% (4/18) of benign lesions and 40% (4/10) of malignant lesions (p=0.40). A pedicle was present in 17% (3/18) of benign and 10% (1/10) of malignant lesions (p=1). Heterogeneous attenuation was present in 61% (11/18) of benign and 90% (9/10) of malignant lesions (p=0.19). Calcification was present in 17% (3/18) of benign tumours and in 70% (7/10) of malignant tumours (p=0.0113). Pleural effusion was present in 6% (1/18) of benign and 40% (4/10) of malignant lesions (p=0.04). Only 1/13 preoperative fine-needle aspirates yielded diagnosis of SFTP. Preoperative diagnosis of SFTP was made in all cases (11/11) with core biopsies. At follow-up (1-10 years, mean 3 years), local recurrence occurred in 3/6 (50%) patients with malignant SFTP and in none of the 10 patients with benign SFTP. CONCLUSION: No definite imaging feature to differentiate benign from malignant SFTP was found. Large size, lobulate borders, presence of calcification, and ipsilateral pleural effusion were the only CT features predictive of malignancy. In suspected cases, core biopsies should be performed rather than fine-needle aspiration.