Modelled impact of Tiny Targets on the distribution and abundance of riverine tsetse.

BACKGROUND: The insecticide-treated baits known as Tiny Targets are one of the cheapest means of controlling riverine species of tsetse flies, the vectors of the trypanosomes that cause sleeping sickness in humans. Models of the efficacy of these targets deployed near rivers are potentially useful in planning control campaigns and highlighting the principles involved. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To evaluate the potential of models, we produced a simple non-seasonal model of the births, deaths, mobility and aging of tsetse, and we programmed it to simulate the impact of seven years of target use against the tsetse, Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, in the riverine habitats of NW Uganda. Particular attention was given to demonstrating that the model could explain three matters of interest: (i) good control can be achieved despite the degradation of targets, (ii) local elimination of tsetse is impossible if invasion sources are not tackled, and (iii) with invasion and target degradation it is difficult to detect any effect of control on the age structure of the tsetse population. CONCLUSIONS: Despite its simplifications, the model can assist planning and teaching, but allowance should be made for any complications due to seasonality and management challenges associated with greater scale.

Efficient population representation with more genetic markers increases performance of a steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) genetic stock identification baseline.

Genetic stock identification (GSI) is an important fisheries management tool to identify the origin of fish harvested in mixed stock fisheries. Periodic updates of genetic baselines can improve performance via the addition of unsampled or under-sampled populations and the inclusion of more informative markers. We used a combination of baselines to evaluate how population representation, marker number, and marker type affected the performance and accuracy of genetic stock assignments (self-assignment, bias, and holdout group tests) for steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Snake River basin. First, we compared the performance of an existing genetic baseline with a newly developed one which had a reduced number of individuals from more populations using the same set of markers. Self-assignment rates were significantly higher (p < 0.001; +5.4%) for the older, larger baseline, bias did not differ significantly between the two, but there was a significant improvement in performance for the new baseline in holdout results (p < 0.001; mean increase of 25.0%). Second, we compared the performance of the new baseline with increased numbers of genetic markers (~2x increase of single-nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs) for the same set of baseline individuals. In this comparison, results produced significantly higher rates of self-assignment (p < 0.001; +9.7%) but neither bias nor leave-one-out were significantly affected. Third, we compared 334 SNPs versus opportunistically discovered microhaplotypes from the same amplicons for the new baseline, and showed the latter produced significantly higher rates of self-assignment (p < 0.01; +2.6%), similar bias, but slightly lower holdout performance (-0.1%). Combined, we show the performance of genetic baselines can be improved via representative and efficient sampling, that increased marker number consistently improved performance over the original baseline, and that opportunistic discovery of microhaplotypes can lead to small improvements in GSI performance.

Deep learning approaches to landmark detection in tsetse wing images.

Morphometric analysis of wings has been suggested for identifying and controlling isolated populations of tsetse (Glossina spp), vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis in Africa. Single-wing images were captured from an extensive data set of field-collected tsetse wings of species Glossina pallidipes and G. m. morsitans. Morphometric analysis required locating 11 anatomical landmarks on each wing. The manual location of landmarks is time-consuming, prone to error, and infeasible for large data sets. We developed a two-tier method using deep learning architectures to classify images and make accurate landmark predictions. The first tier used a classification convolutional neural network to remove most wings that were missing landmarks. The second tier provided landmark coordinates for the remaining wings. We compared direct coordinate regression using a convolutional neural network and segmentation using a fully convolutional network for the second tier. For the resulting landmark predictions, we evaluate shape bias using Procrustes analysis. We pay particular attention to consistent labelling to improve model performance. For an image size of 1024 × 1280, data augmentation reduced the mean pixel distance error from 8.3 (95% confidence interval [4.4,10.3]) to 5.34 (95% confidence interval [3.0,7.0]) for the regression model. For the segmentation model, data augmentation did not alter the mean pixel distance error of 3.43 (95% confidence interval [1.9,4.4]). Segmentation had a higher computational complexity and some large outliers. Both models showed minimal shape bias. We deployed the regression model on the complete unannotated data consisting of 14,354 pairs of wing images since this model had a lower computational cost and more stable predictions than the segmentation model. The resulting landmark data set was provided for future morphometric analysis. The methods we have developed could provide a starting point to studying the wings of other insect species. All the code used in this study has been written in Python and open sourced.

Identification of the area sampled by traps: A modelling study with tsetse.

BACKGROUND: Sampling with traps provides the most common means of investigating the abundance, composition and condition of tsetse populations. It is thus important to know the size of the area from which the samples originate, but that topic is poorly understood. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The topic was clarified with the aid of a simple deterministic model of the mobility, births and deaths of tsetse. The model assessed how the sampled area changed according to variations in the numbers, arrangement and catching efficiency of traps deployed for different periods in a large block of homogeneous habitat subject to different levels of fly mortality. The greatest impacts on the size of the sampled area are produced by the flies' mean daily step length and the duration of trapping. There is little effect of trap type. The daily death rate of adult flies is unimportant unless tsetse control measures increase the mortality several times above the low natural rates. CONCLUSIONS: Formulae for predicting the probability that any given captured fly originated from various areas around the trap are produced. Using a mean daily step length (d) of 395m, typical of a savannah species of tsetse, any fly caught by a single trap in a 5-day trapping period could be regarded, with roughly 95% confidence, as originating from within a distance of 1.3km of the trap that is from an area of 5.3km2.

Does Counting Different Life Stages Impact Estimates for Extinction Probabilities for Tsetse (Glossina spp)?

As insect populations decline, due to climate change and other environmental disruptions, there has been an increased interest in understanding extinction probabilities. Generally, the life cycle of insects occurs in well-defined stages: when counting insects, questions naturally arise about which life stage to count. Using tsetse flies (vectors of trypanosomiasis) as a case study, we develop a model that works when different life stages are counted. Previous branching process models for tsetse populations only explicitly represent newly emerged adult female tsetse and use that subpopulation to keep track of population growth/decline. Here, we directly model other life stages. We analyse reproduction numbers and extinction probabilities and show that several previous models used for estimating extinction probabilities for tsetse populations are special cases of the current model. We confirm that the reproduction number is the same regardless of which life stage is counted, and show how the extinction probability depends on which life stage we start from. We demonstrate, and provide a biological explanation for, a simple relationship between extinction probabilities for the different life stages, based on the probability of recruitment between stages. These results offer insights into insect population dynamics and provide tools that will help with more detailed models of tsetse populations. Population dynamics studies of insects should be clear about life stages and counting points.

Mating systems and predictors of relative reproductive success in a Cutthroat Trout subspecies of conservation concern.

Mating systems and patterns of reproductive success in fishes play an important role in ecology and evolution. While information on the reproductive ecology of many anadromous salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) is well detailed, there is less information for nonanadromous species including the Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout (O. clarkii bouvieri), a subspecies of recreational angling importance and conservation concern. Using data from a parentage-based tagging study, we described the genetic mating system of a migratory population of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout, tested for evidence of sexual selection, and identified predictors of mating and reproductive success. The standardized variance in mating success (i.e., opportunity for sexual selection) was significantly greater for males relative to females, and while the relationship between mating success and reproductive success (i.e., Bateman gradient) was significantly positive for both sexes, a greater proportion of reproductive success was explained by mating success for males (r 2 = 0.80) than females (r 2 = 0.59). Overall, the population displayed a polygynandrous mating system, whereby both sexes experienced variation in mating success due to multiple mating, and sexual selection was variable across sexes. Tests for evidence of sexual selection indicated the interaction between mating success and total length best-predicted relative reproductive success. We failed to detect a signal of inbreeding avoidance among breeding adults, but the group of parents that produced progeny were on average slightly less related than adults that did not produce progeny. Lastly, we estimated the effective number of breeders (N b) and effective population size (N e) and identified while N b was lower than N e, both are sufficiently high to suggest Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout in Burns Creek represent a genetically stable and diverse population.

A warm jet in a cold ocean.

Unprecedented quantities of heat are entering the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait, particularly during summer months. Though some heat is lost to the atmosphere during autumn cooling, a significant fraction of the incoming warm, salty water subducts (dives beneath) below a cooler fresher layer of near-surface water, subsequently extending hundreds of kilometers into the Beaufort Gyre. Upward turbulent mixing of these sub-surface pockets of heat is likely accelerating sea ice melt in the region. This Pacific-origin water brings both heat and unique biogeochemical properties, contributing to a changing Arctic ecosystem. However, our ability to understand or forecast the role of this incoming water mass has been hampered by lack of understanding of the physical processes controlling subduction and evolution of this this warm water. Crucially, the processes seen here occur at small horizontal scales not resolved by regional forecast models or climate simulations; new parameterizations must be developed that accurately represent the physics. Here we present novel high resolution observations showing the detailed process of subduction and initial evolution of warm Pacific-origin water in the southern Beaufort Gyre.

Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): An artefact of inappropriate analysis.

Published analysis of genetic material from field-collected tsetse (Glossina spp, primarily from the Palpalis group) has been used to predict that the distance (δ) dispersed per generation increases as effective population densities (De) decrease, displaying negative density-dependent dispersal (NDDD). Using the published data we show this result is an artefact arising primarily from errors in estimates of S, the area occupied by a subpopulation, and thereby in De. The errors arise from the assumption that S can be estimated as the area ([Formula: see text]) regarded as being covered by traps. We use modelling to show that such errors result in anomalously high correlations between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and the appearance of NDDD, with a slope of -0.5 for the regressions of log([Formula: see text]) on log([Formula: see text]), even in simulations where we specifically assume density-independent dispersal (DID). A complementary mathematical analysis confirms our findings. Modelling of field results shows, similarly, that the false signal of NDDD can be produced by varying trap deployment patterns. Errors in the estimates of δ in the published analysis were magnified because variation in estimates of S were greater than for all other variables measured, and accounted for the greatest proportion of variation in [Formula: see text]. Errors in census population estimates result from an erroneous understanding of the relationship between trap placement and expected tsetse catch, exacerbated through failure to adjust for variations in trapping intensity, trap performance, and in capture probabilities between geographical situations and between tsetse species. Claims of support in the literature for NDDD are spurious. There is no suggested explanation for how NDDD might have evolved. We reject the NDDD hypothesis and caution that the idea should not be allowed to influence policy on tsetse and trypanosomiasis control.

Big Baby, Little Mother: Tsetse Flies Are Exceptions to the Juvenile Small Size Principle.

While across the animal kingdom offspring are born smaller than their parents, notable exceptions exist. Several dipteran species belonging to the Hippoboscoidea superfamily can produce offspring larger than themselves. In this essay, the blood-feeding tsetse is focused on. It is suggested that the extreme reproductive strategy of this fly is enabled by feeding solely on highly nutritious blood, and producing larval offspring that are soft and malleable. This immense reproductive expenditure may have evolved to avoid competition with other biting flies. Tsetse also transmit blood-borne parasites that cause the fatal diseases called African trypanosomiases. It is discussed how tsetse life history and reproductive strategy profoundly influence the type of vector control interventions used to reduce fly populations. In closing, it is argued that the unusual life history of tsetse warrants their preservation in the areas where human and animal health is not threatened.

Distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead of the Columbia River basin.

Fish migrations are energetically costly, especially when moving between freshwater and saltwater, but are a viable strategy for Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) due to the advantageous resources available at various life stages. Anadromous steelhead (O. mykiss) migrate vast distances and exhibit variation for adult migration phenotypes that have a genetic basis at candidate genes known as greb1L and rock1. We examined the distribution of genetic variation at 13 candidate markers spanning greb1L, intergenic, and rock1 regions versus 226 neutral markers for 113 populations (n = 9,471) of steelhead from inland and coastal lineages in the Columbia River. Patterns of population structure with neutral markers reflected genetic similarity by geographic region as demonstrated in previous studies, but candidate markers clustered populations by genetic variation associated with adult migration timing. Mature alleles for late migration had the highest frequency overall in steelhead populations throughout the Columbia River, with only 9 of 113 populations that had a higher frequency of premature alleles for early migration. While a single haplotype block was evident for the coastal lineage, we identified multiple haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. The inland lineage had one haplotype block that corresponded to candidate markers within the greb1L gene and immediately upstream in the intergenic region, and the second block only contained candidate markers from the intergenic region. Haplotype frequencies had similar patterns of geographic distribution as single markers, but there were distinct differences in frequency between the two haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. This may represent multiple recombination events that differed between lineages where phenotypic differences exist between freshwater entry versus arrival timing as indicated by Micheletti et al. (2018a). Redundancy analyses were used to model environmental effects on allelic frequencies of candidate markers, and significant variables were migration distance, temperature, isothermality, and annual precipitation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead as well as associated environmental factors and has direct conservation and management implications.

Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania.

In the absence of national control programmes against Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis, farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroid-based insecticides may be an effective strategy for foci at the edges of wildlife areas, but there is limited evidence to support this. We combined data on insecticide use by farmers, tsetse abundance and trypanosome prevalence, with mathematical models, to quantify the likely impact of insecticide-treated cattle. Sixteen percent of farmers reported treating cattle with a pyrethroid, and chemical analysis indicated 18% of individual cattle had been treated, in the previous week. Treatment of cattle was estimated to increase daily mortality of tsetse by 5-14%. Trypanosome prevalence in tsetse, predominantly from wildlife areas, was 1.25% for T. brucei s.l. and 0.03% for T. b. rhodesiense. For 750 cattle sampled from 48 herds, 2.3% were PCR positive for T. brucei s.l. and none for T. b. rhodesiense. Using mathematical models, we estimated there was 8-29% increase in mortality of tsetse in farming areas and this increase can explain the relatively low prevalence of T. brucei s.l. in cattle. Farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroids is likely, in part, to be limiting the spill-over of human-infective trypanosomes from wildlife areas.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

BACKGROUND: A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations. METHODS: We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations. RESULTS: For fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability. CONCLUSIONS: The high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population.

Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.).

Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions of tsetse populations. Extinction probabilities for tsetse populations have not so far been estimated as a function of temperature. We develop a time-homogeneous branching process model for situations where tsetse live at different levels of fixed temperature. We derive a probability distribution pk(T) for the number of female offspring an adult female tsetse is expected to produce in her lifetime, as a function of the fixed temperature at which she is living. We show that pk(T) can be expressed as a geometric series: its generating function is therefore a fractional linear type. We obtain expressions for the extinction probability, reproduction number, time to extinction and growth rates. The results are valid for all tsetse, but detailed effects of temperature will vary between species. No G. m. morsitans population can escape extinction if subjected, for extended periods, to temperatures outside the range 16°C-32°C. Extinction probability increases more rapidly as temperatures approach and exceed the upper and lower limits. If the number of females is large enough, the population can still survive even at high temperatures (28°C-31°C). Small decreases or increases in constant temperature in the neighbourhoods of 16°C and 31°C, respectively, can drive tsetse populations to extinction. Further study is needed to estimate extinction probabilities for tsetse populations in field situations where temperatures vary continuously.

Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

A published study used a stochastic branching process to derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies (Glossina spp) as a function of adult and pupal mortality, and the probabilities that a female is inseminated by a fertile male. The original derivation was partially heuristic and provided no proofs for inductive results. We provide these proofs, together with a more compact way of reaching the same results. We also show that, while the published equations hold good for the case where tsetse produce male and female offspring in equal proportion, a different solution is required for the more general case where the probability (ß) that an offspring is female lies anywhere in the interval (0, 1). We confirm previous results obtained for the special case where ß = 0.5 and show that extinction probability is at a minimum for ß > 0.5 by an amount that increases with increasing adult female mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that the extinction probability was affected most by changes in adult female mortality, followed by the rate of production of pupae. Because females only produce a single offspring approximately every 10 days, imposing a death rate of greater than about 3.5% per day will ensure the eradication of any tsetse population. These mortality levels can be achieved for some species using insecticide-treated targets or cattle-providing thereby a simple, effective and cost-effective method of controlling and eradicating tsetse, and also human and animal trypanosomiasis. Our results are of further interest in the modern situation where increases in temperature are seeing the real possibility that tsetse will go extinct in some areas, without the need for intervention, but have an increased chance of surviving in other areas where they were previously unsustainable due to low temperatures.

Evaluation of the Performance of Three Biomarker Assays for Recent HIV Infection Using a Well-Characterized HIV-1 Subtype C Incidence Cohort.

Biomarkers for detecting early HIV infection and estimating HIV incidence should minimize false-recent rates (FRRs) while maximizing mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). We compared HIV subtypes B, E and D (BED) capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), Sedia limiting antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay, and Bio-Rad avidity incidence (BRAI) assays using samples from Zimbabwean postpartum women infected with clade C HIV. We calculated MDRIs using 590 samples from 351 seroconverting postpartum women, and FRRs using samples from 2,825 women known to be HIV positive for >12 months. Antibody kinetics were more predictable with LAg and had higher precision compared with BED or BRAI. BRAI also exhibited more variability, and avidity reversal in some cases. For BED, LAg, and BRAI, used alone or with viral load, MDRI values in days were: BED-188 and 170 at normalized optical density (ODn) 0.8; LAg-104 and 100 at ODn cutoff 1.5; BRAI-135 and 134 at avidity index cutoff 30%. Corresponding FRRs were: BRAI 1.1% and 1.0% and LAg 0.57% and 0.35%: these were 3.8-10.9 times lower than BED values of 4.8% and 3.8%. BRAI and LAg have significantly lower FRRs and MDRIs than in published studies, and much lower than BED and could be used to estimate incidence in perinatal women and to measure population-level HIV incidence in HIV control operations in Africa.

Wing length and host location in tsetse (Glossina spp.): implications for control using stationary baits.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that attempts to eradicate populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.) using stationary targets might fail because smaller, less mobile individuals are unlikely to be killed by the targets. If true, tsetse caught in stationary traps should be larger than those from mobile baits, which require less mobility on the part of the flies. RESULTS: Sampling tsetse in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe, we found that the number of tsetse caught from stationary traps, as a percent of total numbers from traps plus a mobile vehicle, was ~5% for male G. morsitans morsitans (mean wing length 5.830 mm; 95% CI: 5.800-5.859 mm) and ~10% for females (6.334 mm; 95% CI: 6.329-6.338 mm); for G. pallidipes the figures were ~50% for males (6.830 mm; 95% CI: 6.821-6.838 mm) and ~75% for females (7.303 mm, 95% CI: 7.302-7.305 mm). As expected, flies of the smaller species (and the smaller sex) were less likely to be captured using stationary, rather than mobile sampling devices. For flies of a given sex and species the situation was more complex. Multivariable analysis showed that, for females of both species, wing lengths changed with ovarian age and the month, year and method of capture. For G. pallidipes, there were statistically significant interactions between ovarian age and capture month, year and method. For G. m. morsitans, there was only a significant interaction between ovarian age and capture month. The effect of capture method was, however, small in absolute terms: for G. pallidipes and G. m. morsitans flies caught on the mobile vehicle had wings only 0.24 and 0.48% shorter, respectively, than flies caught in stationary traps. In summary, wing length in field samples of tsetse varies with ovarian age, capture month and year and, weakly, with capture method. Suggestions that a target-based operation against G. f. fuscipes in Kenya caused a shift towards a smaller, less mobile population of tsetse, unavailable to the targets, failed to account for factors other than capture method. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with the successful use of targets to eradicate populations of tsetse in Zimbabwe. Until further, more nuanced, studies are conducted, it is premature to conclude that targets alone could not, similarly, be used to eradicate G. f. fuscipes populations in Kenya.

Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.

Geostatistical models using remotely-sensed data predict savanna tsetse decline across the interface between protected and unprotected areas in Serengeti, Tanzania.

Monitoring abundance is essential for vector management, but it is often only possible in a fraction of managed areas. For vector control programmes, sampling to estimate abundance is usually carried out at a local-scale (10s km2), while interventions often extend across 100s km2. Geostatistical models have been used to interpolate between points where data are available, but this still requires costly sampling across the entire area of interest. Instead, we used geostatistical models to predict local-scale spatial variation in the abundance of tsetse-vectors of human and animal African trypanosomes-beyond the spatial extent of data to which models were fitted, in Serengeti, Tanzania.We sampled Glossina swynnertoni and Glossina pallidipes >10 km inside the Serengeti National Park (SNP) and along four transects extending into areas where humans and livestock live. We fitted geostatistical models to data >10 km inside the SNP to produce maps of abundance for the entire region, including unprotected areas.Inside the SNP, the mean number of G. pallidipes caught per trap per day in dense woodland was 166 (± 24 SE), compared to 3 (±1) in grassland. Glossina swynnertoni was more homogenous with respective means of 15 (±3) and 15 (±8). In general, models predicted a decline in abundance from protected to unprotected areas, related to anthropogenic changes to vegetation, which was confirmed during field survey. Synthesis and applications. Our approach allows vector control managers to identify sites predicted to have relatively high tsetse abundance, and therefore to design and implement improved surveillance strategies. In East and Southern Africa, trypanosomiasis is associated with wilderness areas. Our study identified pockets of vegetation which could sustain tsetse populations in farming areas outside the Serengeti National Park. Our method will assist countries in identifying, monitoring and, if necessary, controlling tsetse in trypanosomiasis foci. This has specific application to tsetse, but the approach could also be developed for vectors of other pathogens.

Mixing rates in weakly differentiated stocks of greater amberjack (Seriola dumerili) in the Gulf of Mexico.

The greater amberjack (Seriola dumerili) is a commercially and recreationally important marine fish species in the southeastern United States, where it has been historically managed as two non-mixing stocks (Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic). Mark-recapture studies and analysis of mitochondrial DNA have suggested the two stocks are demographically independent; however, little is currently known about when and where spawning occurs in Gulf of Mexico amberjack, and whether stock mixture occurs on breeding grounds. The primary objective of this study was to quantify stock mixture among breeding populations of amberjack collected from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Genetic data based on 11 loci identified very low, though statistically significant differentiation among Gulf of Mexico samples (GST = 0.007, [Formula: see text] = 0.009; all P = 0.001) and between reproductive adults collected from two spawning areas (GST = 0.007, [Formula: see text] = 0.014; all P = 0.001). Naïve Bayesian mixture analysis supported a single genetic cluster [p(S|data) = 0.734] whereas trained clustering (using Atlantic and Gulf spawning fish) gave the highest support to a two-cluster model (p(S|data) = 1.0). Our results support the argument that the genetic structuring of greater amberjack is more complex than the previously assumed two, non-mixing stock model. Although our data provide evidence of limited population structure, we argue in favour of non-panmixia among reproductive fish collected from the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Keys.

How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morsitans.

Theory suggests females should optimize resource allocation across reproductive bouts to maximize lifetime reproduction, balancing current and future reproductive efforts according to physiological state and projected survival and reproduction. Tests of these ideas focus on long-lived vertebrates: few measure age-related reproductive output in iteroparous invertebrates, or partition reserves between those allocated to offspring versus mothers. We investigated how maternal age, and environmental and physiological factors influence reproductive investment in wild tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen and G. morsitans morsitans Westwood. Tsetse provide a tractable system to measure reproductive allocation. Females exhibit high maternal investment, producing single, large offspring that rely exclusively on maternal reserves. We find that mothers in better physiological condition and experiencing cooler temperatures produce larger offspring. Pupal size increases significantly but weakly with age. In both species, females with less fat invest proportionately more in offspring. Post-partum fat decreases in flies with badly frayed wings: poor flight capability may limit their feeding efficiency, or they may sacrifice more reserves as a terminal investment. Our results support evidence that offspring size increases with maternal size, investment depends on the environment, and females with lower chances of future reproduction invest more into current offspring. We discuss the implications of maternal effects for predicting vector population responses to environmental change.