Climate change and ecosystem shifts in the southwestern United States.

Climate change shifts ecosystems, altering their compositions and instigating transitions, making climate change the predominant driver of ecosystem instability. Land management agencies experience these climatic effects on ecosystems they administer yet lack applied information to inform mitigation. We address this gap, explaining ecosystem shifts by building relationships between the historical locations of 22 ecosystems (c. 2000) and abiotic data (1970-2000; bioclimate, terrain) within the southwestern United States using 'ensemble' machine learning models. These relationships identify the conditions required for establishing and maintaining southwestern ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem suitability). We projected these historical relationships to mid (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) periods using CMIP6 generation BCC-CSM2-MR and GFDL-ESM4 climate models with SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. This procedure reveals how ecosystems shift, as suitability typically increases in area (~ 50% (~ 40% SD)), elevation (12-15%) and northing (4-6%) by mid-century. We illustrate where and when ecosystems shift, by mapping suitability predictions temporally and within 52,565 properties (e.g., Federal, State, Tribal). All properties had ≥ 50% changes in suitability for ≥ 1 ecosystem within them, irrespective of size (≥ 16.7 km2). We integrated 9 climate models to quantify predictive uncertainty and exemplify its relevance. Agencies must manage ecosystem shifts transcending jurisdictions. Effective mitigation requires collective action heretofore rarely instituted. Our procedure supplies the climatic context to inform their decisions.

Effects of hydrogen gas inhalation on L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia.

L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-DOPA)-induced dyskinesia is a side effect of Parkinson's disease treatment and it is characterized by atypical involuntary movements. A link between neuroinflammation and L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia has been documented. Hydrogen gas (H2) has neuroprotective effects in Parkinson's disease models and has a major anti-inflammatory effect. Our objective is to test the hypothesis that H2 inhalation reduces L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia. 15 days after 6-hydroxydopamine lesions of dopaminergic neurons were made (microinjection into the medial forebrain bundle), chronic L-DOPA treatment (15 days) was performed. Rats were exposed to H2 (2% gas mixture, 1 h) or air (controls) before L-DOPA injection. Abnormal involuntary movements and locomotor activity were conducted. Striatal microglia and astrocyte was analyzed and striatal and plasma samples for cytokines evaluation were collected after the abnormal involuntary movements analysis. H2 inhalation attenuated L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia. The gas therapy did not impair the improvement of locomotor activity achieved by L-DOPA treatment. H2 inhalation reduced activated microglia in the lesioned striatum, which is consistent with the observed reduced pro-inflammatory cytokines levels. Display of abnormal involuntary movements was positively correlated with plasma IL-1ß and striatal TNF-α levels and negatively correlated with striatal IL-10 levels. Prophylactic H2 inhalation decreases abnormal involuntary movements in a preclinical L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia model. The H2 antidyskinetic effect was associated with decreased striatal and peripheral inflammation. This finding has a translational importance to L-DOPA-treated parkinsonian patients' well-being.

Healthcare Workers' Perceptions of On-Site Childcare.

GOAL: Measures taken by healthcare organizations to address COVID-19 highlighted the long-standing lack of childcare infrastructure required to support healthcare workers. This study, designed to provide evidence to support operations at an academic medical center, looked at the influence that in-house and emergency childcare could have on the retention, recruitment, and productivity of healthcare workers. This study also outlined the implications that childcare, or its lack, has for healthcare organizations during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a 35-question electronic employee survey (under institutional review board approval) during pandemic-induced public school closures, which included both quantitative and qualitative (write-in) questions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The survey results showed that weekday on-site childcare was very or extremely important to more than half of survey respondents, the majority of whom were staff members (28%) or physicians (25%), followed by administrators (15%), researchers (12%), others (10%), nurses (5%), educators (2%), and residents (1%). Sixty percent of respondents reported that emergency on-site childcare was extremely important (34%) or very important (26%). Almost half (49%) reported that emergency childcare needs have disrupted their work in the past year, including canceling of clinics or surgical cases. Analysis of qualitative comments via a strategy based on coding and categorization showed that, when asked how childcare influences their work choices, employees responded that childcare availability has limited the hours or times they could work, that lack of childcare has prevented career growth, that they left a previous job or will leave their current job because of childcare needs, or that they stayed at a previous job or have remained in their current job longer because of the availability of childcare. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Although data from this mixed-methods study support findings in the literature that there is a need for in-house and emergency childcare, the data suggest that current employees at this academic medical center do not currently expect it, likely because such childcare is not generally available at most academic institutions. With increased rates of burnout and healthcare workers leaving the field since COVID-19, offering in-house and emergency childcare provides hospital systems with new opportunities to retain and recruit physicians, nurses, and staff, as well as to improve their well-being and productivity.

The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations.

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population's minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations' relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: Implications for future waterfowl conservation.

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955-2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan-Mar) and autumn (Oct-Dec) migration periods. For spring (n = 187) and autumn (n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years, respectively, while the corresponding numbers for increasing temperatures were 4% and 9%. During spring migration, ≥80% of significant changes in the timing of spring peak indicated advancements, while 67% of significant changes in autumn peak timing indicated delays both across years and with increasing temperatures. Four refuges showed a consistent pattern across species of advancing spring migration peaks over time. Advancements in spring peak across years became proportionally less common among species with increasing latitude, while delays in autumn peak with increasing temperature became proportionally more common. Our study represents the first comprehensive summary of changes in spring and autumn migration phenology for Central Flyway waterfowl and demonstrates significant phenological changes during the latter part of the twentieth century.

Detection of Major and Mild Neurocognitive Disorder with the Verbal Naming Test.

OBJECTIVE: The Verbal Naming Test (VNT) is an auditory-based measure of naming or word finding. The current multisite study sought to evaluate the reliability and validity of the VNT in the detection of major and mild neurocognitive disorder (NCD). METHOD: This study analyzed clinical data from two outpatient neuropsychology clinics (N = 188 and N = 77) and a geriatric primary care clinic (N = 104). Cronbach's alpha and Spearman correlations with other measures were calculated. ROC analyses were used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power, and negative predictive power for the detection of major and mild NCD per DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition) criteria. RESULTS: The VNT was found to have strong reliability (Cronbach's alpha = .90) and high convergent validity with a commonly used picture-naming task (NAB Naming, Spearman's rho = .65, p < .001). The VNT showed good sensitivity and specificity for the detection of NCDs, particularly major NCD, with an area under the curve of .85, sensitivity of .80, and specificity of .75. A possible discontinue rule is also suggested for clinicians to use. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide compelling evidence for the use of the VNT to detect neurocognitive impairment in a clinical setting. The VNT provides a reliable alternative to picture-naming tasks, which may be advantageous when working with visually impaired patients or conducting evaluations over telehealth.

The graying of integrated health: the specialized role of psychology in geriatric primary care.

OBJECTIVES: Integrating behavioral health services into primary care is an important global initiative to improve access to mental health services. Within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), Geriatric Patient Aligned Care Teams (GeriPACTs) are one model of integrated care for frail older adults to serve older Veterans with geriatric syndromes and increased probability of cognitive impairment. Understanding of the role of psychology in GeriPACT is limited. This study examines this role, describes the practice of these psychologists, and evaluates the integration of psychology into geriatric primary care. METHODS: A mixed-methods design was used. Recruitment occurred through two VHA listservs for GeriPACT and Primary Care Mental Health Integration (PC-MHI) psychologists. Surveys examined referral processes, service access, clinical services provision, and use of psychotherapy modalities. Twenty psychologists participated. Structured follow-up interviews were conducted with five participants. RESULTS: A large minority of psychologists did not have FTE allotted for GeriPACT work they provided (40%). Sixty percent were assigned to one GeriPACT team. Twenty percent served four to seven GeriPACT teams. Eighty percent provided same-day services. Cognitive assessment was provided weekly by over sixty percent of providers who had FTE allotment to this role. Qualitative data provided a rich description of psychologists' perceptions of their role, team functioning, referral processes, visit structure, and other factors. CONCLUSION: Findings are discussed in the context of the World Health Organization's guidelines for integrating mental health into primary care. Data suggest a need for an integrated model that adapts to the special needs of older adults in primary care.

Year-round water management for desert bighorn sheep corresponds with visits by predators not bighorn sheep.

Managing water (e.g., catchments) to increase the abundance and distribution of game is popular in arid regions, especially throughout the southwest United States, where biologists often manage water year-round for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni). Bighorn may visit water when predators (e.g., mountain lions [Puma concolor], coyotes [Canis latrans]) do not, suggesting that differences in species ecology or their surface water requirements influence visit timing. Alternatively, visits by desert bighorn sheep and predators may align. The former outcome identifies opportunities to improve water management by providing water when desert bighorn sheep visit most, which hypothetically may reduce predator presence, range expansion and predation, thereby supporting objectives to increase sheep abundances. Since advancing water management hinges on understanding the patterns of species visits, we identified when these three species and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) visited managed waters in three North American deserts (Chihuahuan, Sonoran, Mojave). We unraveled the ecological basis describing why visits occurred by associating species visits with four weather variables using multi-site, multi-species models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework (3.4 million images; 105 locations; 7/2009-12/2016). Desert bighorn sheep concentrated visits to water within 4-5 contiguous months. Mountain lions visited water essentially year-round within all deserts. Higher maximum temperature influenced visits to water, especially for desert bighorn sheep. Less long-term precipitation (prior 6-week total) raised visits for all species, and influenced mountain lion visits 3-20 times more than mule deer and 3-37 times more than sheep visits. Visits to water by prey were inconsistent predictors of visits to water by mountain lions. Our results suggest improvements to water management by aligning water provision with the patterns and ecological explanations of desert bighorn sheep visits. We exemplify a scientific approach to water management for enhancing stewardship of desert mammals, be it the southwest United States or arid regions elsewhere.

Accurate population estimation of Caprinae using camera traps and distance sampling.

With most of the world's Caprinae taxa threatened with extinction, the IUCN appeals to the development of simple and affordable sampling methods that will produce credible abundance and distribution data for helping conserve these species inhabiting remote areas. Traditional sampling approaches, like aerial sampling or mark-capture-recapture, can generate bias by failing to meet sampling assumptions, or by incurring too much cost and logistical burden for most projects to address them. Therefore, we met the IUCN's challenge by testing a sampling technique that leverages imagery from camera traps with conventional distance sampling, validating its operability in mountainous topography by comparing results to known abundances. Our project occurred within a captive facility housing a wild population of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in the Chihuahuan desert of New Mexico, which is censused yearly. True abundance was always within our 90% confidence bounds, and the mean abundance estimates were within 4.9 individuals (average) of the census values. By demonstrating the veracity of this straightforward and inexpensive sampling method, we provide confidence in its operability, urging its use to fill conservation voids for Caprinae and other data-deficient species inhabiting rugged or heavily vegetated terrain.

IGF2 drives formation of ileal neuroendocrine tumors in patients and mice.

By the strictest of definitions, a genetic driver of tumorigenesis should fulfill two criteria: it should be altered in a high percentage of patient tumors, and it should also be able to cause the same type of tumor to form in mice. No gene that fits either of these criteria has ever been found for ileal neuroendocrine tumors (I-NETs), which in humans are known for an unusual lack of recurrently mutated genes, and which have never been detected in mice. In the following report, we show that I-NETs can be generated by transgenic RT2 mice, which is a classic model for a genetically unrelated disease, pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). The ability of RT2 mice to generate I-NETs depended upon genetic background. I-NETs appeared in a B6AF1 genetic background, but not in a B6 background nor even in an AB6F1 background. AB6F1 and B6AF1 have identical nuclear DNA but can potentially express different allelic forms of imprinted genes. This led us to test human I-NETs for loss of imprinting, and we discovered that the IGF2 gene showed loss of imprinting and increased expression in the I-NETs of 57% of patients. By increasing IGF2 activity genetically, I-NETs could be produced by RT2 mice in a B6 genetic background, which otherwise never developed I-NETs. The facts that IGF2 is altered in a high percentage of patients with I-NETs and that I-NETs can form in mice that have elevated IGF2 activity, define IGF2 as the first genetic driver of ileal neuroendocrine tumorigenesis.

Mental Health Integration in Geriatric Patient-Aligned Care Teams in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

OBJECTIVES: To inform geriatric mental health policy by describing the role of behavioral healthcare providers within a geriatric patient-aligned care team (GeriPACT), a patient-centered medical home model of care within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), serving older veterans with chronic disease, functional dependency, cognitive decline, and psychosocial challenges, and/or those who have elder abuse, risk of long-term care placement, or impending disability. METHODS: The authors used mixed methods, consisting of a national survey and site visits between July 2016 and February 2017, at VHA outpatient clinics. The participants, 101 GeriPACTs at 44 sites, completed surveys, and 24 medical providers were interviewed. A standardized survey and semi-structured interview guide were developed based on the program handbook, with input from experts in the VHA Office of Geriatrics and Extended Care Services, guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Science Research. RESULTS: Of surveyed GeriPACTs, 42.6% had a mental health provider on the team-a psychiatrist (28.7%) and/or psychologist (23.8%). Of these, the mean was 0.27 full-time equivalent psychiatrists and 0.44 full-time equivalent psychologists per team (suggested panel = 800 patients). In surveys, teams with behavioral health providers were more likely to manage psychosocial χ2 = 8.87, cognitive χ2 = 8.68, and depressive χ2 = 11.85 conditions in their panel than those without behavioral health providers. CONCLUSION: GeriPACT mental health integration is less than 50%. Population differences between general primary care and geriatric primary care may require different care approaches and provider competencies and need further study.

Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC = .74 (p < .001, 95% CI = .70-.78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p = .001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries. (PsycINFO Database Record

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

Genital Responses to Rape Vignettes Among Young Men: The Influence of Mood and Directed Attention.

Although it is clear that men with a history of sexual assaults against women produce higher relative genital responses to rape vignettes in the laboratory than do men without such a history, it remains unclear what aspects of the vignettes are eliciting these responses, and whether the genital responses are affected by situational factors. The antisocial tendencies hypothesis states that many men are inhibited by cues of violence, suffering, and coercion in rape vignettes, but other men, particularly antisocial and sexually aggressive men, are not so inhibited. In this study, we investigated whether the hypothesized inhibition to rape vignettes among nonoffenders could be affected by manipulation of mood and directed attention. A total of 48 young men were exposed to audio-recorded vignettes describing mutually consenting and nonviolent sexual interactions, mutually consenting and violent sexual interactions, nonconsenting and violent sexual interactions, and nonsexual and nonviolent social interactions (within-subjects). Participants were randomly assigned to a mood manipulation designed to induce a happy, neutral, or sad mood (between-subjects). All were asked to pay attention to either sex words or violent words while listening to the vignettes (within-subjects). As is typically observed, genital responses were lower (inhibited) when vignettes included cues of violence or nonconsent. Both happy and sad mood inductions reduced this inhibition, so that men induced into a happy or sad mood showed greater relative responding to cues of violence or nonconsent compared with men in a neutral mood. The attention manipulation had no significant effect. Results suggest that genital responses to rape cues can be situationally influenced, but not necessarily as predicted by the antisocial tendencies hypothesis.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs.

Massive Bioaccumulation and Self-Assembly of Phenazine Compounds in Live Cells.

Clofazimine is an orally administered, FDA-approved drug that massively bioaccumulates in macrophages, forming membrane-bound intracellular structures possessing nanoscale supramolecular features. Here, a library of phenazine compounds derived from clofazimine was synthesized and tested for their ability to accumulate and form ordered molecular aggregates inside cells. Regardless of chemical structure or physicochemical properties, bioaccumulation was consistently greater in macrophages than in epithelial cells. Microscopically, some self-assembled structures exhibited a pronounced, diattenuation anisotropy signal, evident by the differential absorption of linearly polarized light, at the peak absorbance wavelength of the phenazine core. The measured anisotropy was well above the background anisotropy of endogenous cellular components, reflecting the self-assembly of condensed, insoluble complexes of ordered phenazine molecules. Chemical variations introduced at the R-imino position of the phenazine core led to idiosyncratic effects on the compounds' bioaccumulation behavior, as well as on the morphology and organization of the resulting intracellular structures. Beyond clofazimine, these results demonstrate how the self-assembly of membrane-permeant, orally-bioavailable small molecule building blocks can endow cells with unnatural structural elements possessing chemical, physical and functional characteristics unlike those of other natural cellular components.

Weight Gain and Its Correlates Among Forensic Inpatients.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated changes in weight, body mass index (BMI), and other indices of the metabolic syndrome in forensic inpatients. Weight gain associated with newer antipsychotics (APs) is well established in the general psychiatric population. METHODS: We examined the medical records of 291 men admitted to a forensic hospital at admission and again at discharge or 365 days later if still in hospital. We also recorded diagnosis and smoker status on admission and quantified psychotropic treatment and adherence, physical activity, and daytime occupation during the hospitalization. RESULTS: On admission, 33% were obese and 22% of the 106 patients for whom sufficient data were available met criteria for metabolic syndrome. Among patients staying at least 30 days, 60% were weighed again before discharge but repeated blood pressure and waist circumference measures were uncommon, even among those at greatest risk. The 122 forensic inpatients with sufficient information gained an average of 12% of their body weight and 40% increased by at least 1 BMI category, gaining an average of 3.67 kg per month. Weight gain was associated with duration of time and was not attributable to being underweight on admission, diagnosis of schizophrenia, atypical AP treatment, medication adherence, or having been a smoker. CONCLUSIONS: Patients gained weight during forensic hospitalization independent of medication use. We recommend further research using consistent measurement and wider sampling of both metabolic syndrome indicators and its individual and systemic causes in forensic populations.

Polarized Fluorescence Microscopy to Study Cytoskeleton Assembly and Organization in Live Cells.

The measurement of not only the location but also the organization of molecules in live cells is crucial to understanding diverse biological processes. Polarized light microscopy provides a nondestructive means to evaluate order within subcellular domains. When combined with fluorescence microscopy and GFP-tagged proteins, the approach can reveal organization within specific populations of molecules. This unit describes a protocol for measuring the architectural dynamics of cytoskeletal components using polarized fluorescence microscopy and OpenPolScope open-access software (http://www.openpolscope.org). The protocol describes installation of linear polarizers or a liquid crystal (LC) universal compensator, calibration of the system, polarized fluorescence imaging, and analysis. The use of OpenPolScope software and hardware allows for reliable, user-friendly image acquisition to measure and analyze polarized fluorescence.

Evidence for risk estimate precision: implications for individual risk communication.

Actuarial risk assessment instruments using well-established predictor variables measured at the individual level (e.g., age, criminal history, psychopathy) discriminate well between recidivists and non-recidivists across diverse samples. Data indicating the relative risk of recidivism can inform policy decisions about allocating resources according to risk within a correctional system, consistent with the first of the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) principles. Evidence for the precision of absolute risk as applied to an individual based on scores from many samples, however, has proven challenging. In this paper, we present a study examining the association of actuarial risk estimate precision with sample size using the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA; Lowenkamp et al., 2013), in samples of up to 26,642 offenders. Results indicate that the precision of individual estimates can be demonstrated with sufficient sample size. We believe that the implications of absolute risk for the communication of an individual offender's risks have been poorly understood. We argue that the purpose of individual-level risk communication is to ensure the effective application of policy, which requires matching a new case to aggregate data. We illustrate how an offender's risk might thus be communicated, and conclude that this function is distinct from management of an individual's criminogenic needs and identification of effective and suitable treatments.