Update of the risk assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in food.

The European Commission asked EFSA to update its 2011 risk assessment on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in food, focusing on 10 congeners: BDE-28, -47, -49, -99, -100, -138, -153, -154, -183 and ­209. The CONTAM Panel concluded that the neurodevelopmental effects on behaviour and reproductive/developmental effects are the critical effects in rodent studies. For four congeners (BDE-47, -99, -153, -209) the Panel derived Reference Points, i.e. benchmark doses and corresponding lower 95% confidence limits (BMDLs), for endpoint-specific benchmark responses. Since repeated exposure to PBDEs results in accumulation of these chemicals in the body, the Panel estimated the body burden at the BMDL in rodents, and the chronic intake that would lead to the same body burden in humans. For the remaining six congeners no studies were available to identify Reference Points. The Panel concluded that there is scientific basis for inclusion of all 10 congeners in a common assessment group and performed a combined risk assessment. The Panel concluded that the combined margin of exposure (MOET) approach was the most appropriate risk metric and applied a tiered approach to the risk characterisation. Over 84,000 analytical results for the 10 congeners in food were used to estimate the exposure across dietary surveys and age groups of the European population. The most important contributors to the chronic dietary Lower Bound exposure to PBDEs were meat and meat products and fish and seafood. Taking into account the uncertainties affecting the assessment, the Panel concluded that it is likely that current dietary exposure to PBDEs in the European population raises a health concern.

Retrospective cumulative dietary risk assessment of craniofacial alterations by residues of pesticides.

EFSA established cumulative assessment groups and conducted retrospective cumulative risk assessments for two types of craniofacial alterations (alterations due to abnormal skeletal development, head soft tissue alterations and brain neural tube defects) for 14 European populations of women in childbearing age. Cumulative acute exposure calculations were performed by probabilistic modelling using monitoring data collected by Member States in 2017, 2018 and 2019. A rigorous uncertainty analysis was performed using expert knowledge elicitation. Considering all sources of uncertainty, their dependencies and differences between populations, it was concluded with varying degrees of certainty that the MOET resulting from cumulative exposure is above 100 for the two types of craniofacial alterations. The threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers is therefore not exceeded. Considering the severity of the effects under consideration, it was also assessed whether the MOET is above 500. This was the case with varying levels of certainty for the head soft tissue alterations and brain neural tube defects. However, for the alterations due to abnormal skeletal development, it was found about as likely as not that the MOET is above 500 in most populations. For two populations, it was even found more likely that the MOET is below 500. These results were discussed in the light of the conservatism of the methodological approach.

Cumulative dietary risk assessment of chronic acetylcholinesterase inhibition by residues of pesticides.

A retrospective cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues was conducted for chronic inhibition of acetylcholinesterase. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in a previous scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the nervous system. The exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and individual food consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and from different age groups. Exposure estimates were obtained by means of a two-dimensional probabilistic model, which was implemented in SAS ® software. The characterisation of cumulative risk was supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation. For each of the 10 populations, it is concluded with varying degrees of certainty that cumulative exposure to pesticides contributing to the chronic inhibition of acetylcholinesterase does not exceed the threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers.

Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system.

A retrospective acute cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues, supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation, was conducted for two effects on the nervous system: brain and/or erythrocyte acetylcholinesterase inhibition, and functional alterations of the motor division. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the nervous system. Cumulative exposure assessments were conducted through probabilistic modelling by EFSA and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using two different software tools and reported separately. These exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and individual consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and different age groups. This report completes the characterisation of cumulative risk, taking account of the available data and the uncertainties involved. For each of the 10 populations, it is concluded with varying degrees of certainty that cumulative exposure to pesticides that have the acute effects on the nervous system mentioned above does not exceed the threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers.

Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid.

A retrospective chronic cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues, supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation, was conducted for two effects on the thyroid, hypothyroidism and parafollicular cell (C-cell) hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid. Cumulative exposure assessments were conducted through probabilistic modelling by EFSA and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using two different software tools and reported separately. These exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and individual consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and different age groups. This report completes the characterisation of cumulative risk, taking account of the available data and the uncertainties involved. For each of the 10 populations, it is concluded with varying degrees of certainty that cumulative exposure to pesticides that have the chronic effects on the thyroid mentioned above does not exceed the threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers.

An integrated optical modulator operating at cryogenic temperatures.

Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) operating at cryogenic temperatures are fundamental building blocks required to achieve scalable quantum computing and cryogenic computing technologies1,2. Silicon PICs have matured for room-temperature applications, but their cryogenic performance is limited by the absence of efficient low-temperature electro-optic modulation. Here we demonstrate electro-optic switching and modulation from room temperature down to 4 K by using the Pockels effect in integrated barium titanate (BaTiO3) devices3. We investigate the temperature dependence of the nonlinear optical properties of BaTiO3, showing an effective Pockels coefficient of 200 pm V-1 at 4 K. The fabricated devices show an electro-optic bandwidth of 30 GHz, ultralow-power tuning that is 109 times more efficient than thermal tuning, and high-speed data modulation at 20 Gbps. Our results demonstrate a missing component for cryogenic PICs, removing major roadblocks for the realization of cryogenic-compatible systems in the field of quantum computing, supercomputing and sensing, and for interfacing those systems with instrumentation at room temperature.

A retain and refine approach to cumulative risk assessment.

Mixtures of substances to which humans are exposed may lead to cumulative exposure and health effects. To study their effects, it is first necessary to identify a cumulative assessment group (CAG) of substances for risk assessment or hazard testing. Excluding substances from consideration before there is sufficient evidence may underestimate the risk. Conversely, including everything and treating the inevitable uncertainties using conservative assumptions is inefficient and may overestimate the risk, with an unknown level of protection. An efficient, transparent strategy is described to retain a large group, quantifying the uncertainty of group membership and other uncertainties. Iterative refinement of the CAG then focuses on adding information for the substances with high probability of contributing significantly to the risk. Probabilities can be estimated using expert opinion or derived from data on substance properties. An example is presented with 100 pesticides, in which the retain step identified a single substance to target refinement. Using an updated hazard characterisation for this substance reduced the mean exposure estimate from 0.43 to 0.28 µg kg-bw-1 day-1 and reduced the 99.99th percentile exposure from 24.9 to 5.1 µg kg-bw-1 day-1. Other retained substances contributed little to the risk estimates, even after accounting for uncertainty.

Establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the nervous system.

Cumulative assessment groups of pesticides have been established for five effects on the nervous system: brain and/or erythrocyte acetylcholinesterase inhibition, functional alterations of the motor, sensory and autonomic divisions, and histological neuropathological changes in neural tissue. Sources of uncertainties resulting from the methodological approach and from the limitations in available data and scientific knowledge have been identified and considered. This report supports the publication of a scientific report on cumulative risk assessment to pesticides affecting the nervous system, in which all uncertainties identified for either the exposure assessment or the establishment of the cumulative assessment groups are incorporated into a consolidated risk characterisation.

Establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid.

Cumulative assessment groups of pesticides have been established for two specific effects on the thyroid: firstly hypothyroidism, and secondly parafollicular cell (C-cell) hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia. Sources of uncertainties resulting from the methodological approach and from the limitations in available data and scientific knowledge have been identified and considered. This report supports the publication of a scientific report on cumulative risk assessment to pesticides affecting the thyroid, in which all uncertainties identified for either the exposure assessment or the establishment of the cumulative assessment groups are incorporated into a consolidated risk characterisation.

Evaluating European Food Safety Authority Protection Goals for Honeybees (Apis mellifera): What Do They Mean for Pollination?

In recent years there has been growing concern regarding the sudden and unexplained failure of honeybee (Apis mellifera) colonies. Several factors have been suggested, including pesticides. In an effort to regulate their impact, guidance published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has recommended that the magnitude of effects on exposed colonies should not exceed 7% reduction in colony size after 2 brood cycles. However, fears have been raised regarding the practicality of measuring such a loss in the field. It is also unclear how this protection goal relates to maintaining the ecosystem services provided by bees, which we argue should be a primary objective for regulators. Here, we evaluate what these protection goals mean in relation to ecosystems performance using a computational colony model that incorporates mechanisms to simulate both lethal and sublethal pesticide effects. To these simulations, we apply a testing regime similar to that commonly used in field trials to produce standard assessment metrics. By relating these measures to losses in forager activity, we aim to identify which could be used as effective indicators of reduced ecoservice and to quantify acceptable limits below which performance can be maintained. Our findings show that loss of colony size is the best indicator of reduced ecoservice. Metrics that focus on specific colony functions such as increased brood or forager mortality are ineffective indicators for all types of simulated pesticide effects. At the levels of colony loss recommended by EFSA, using our default parameterization, we predict a loss of ecosystems performance of 3% to 4%. However, based on an extensive sensitivity analysis, it is clear that this estimate is subject to substantial uncertainty with losses under alternative parameterizations of up to 14%. Nevertheless, our model provides a valuable framework for assessing protection goals, allowing regulators to test relevant impacts and quantify their magnitude. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:750-758. © 2018 Crown Copyright and SETAC.

Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment.

This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncertainties that should be addressed as part of risk analysis and decision-making. A general approach is outlined for identifying and classifying the relevant uncertainties and variabilities. The implementation of uncertainty analysis within the MCRA software, developed as part of the EU-funded ACROPOLIS project to address some of these uncertainties, is demonstrated. An example is presented for dietary and non-dietary exposures to the triazole class of compounds. This demonstrates the chaining of models, linking variability and uncertainty generated from an external model for bystander exposure with variability and uncertainty in MCRA dietary exposure assessments. A new method is also presented for combining pesticide usage survey information with limited residue monitoring data, to address non-detect uncertainty. The results show that incorporating usage information reduces uncertainty in parameters of the residue distribution but that in this case quantifying uncertainty is not a priority, at least for UK grown crops. A general discussion of alternative approaches to treat uncertainty, either quantitatively or qualitatively, is included.

A European model and case studies for aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds.

Selection of appropriate tumour data sets for Benchmark Dose Modelling (BMD) and derivation of a Margin of Exposure (MoE) for substances that are genotoxic and carcinogenic: considerations of biological relevance of tumour type, data quality and uncertainty assessment.

This article addresses a number of concepts related to the selection and modelling of carcinogenicity data for the calculation of a Margin of Exposure. It follows up on the recommendations put forward by the International Life Sciences Institute - European branch in 2010 on the application of the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach to substances in food that are genotoxic and carcinogenic. The aims are to provide practical guidance on the relevance of animal tumour data for human carcinogenic hazard assessment, appropriate selection of tumour data for Benchmark Dose Modelling, and approaches for dealing with the uncertainty associated with the selection of data for modelling and, consequently, the derived Point of Departure (PoD) used to calculate the MoE. Although the concepts outlined in this article are interrelated, the background expertise needed to address each topic varies. For instance, the expertise needed to make a judgement on biological relevance of a specific tumour type is clearly different to that needed to determine the statistical uncertainty around the data used for modelling a benchmark dose. As such, each topic is dealt with separately to allow those with specialised knowledge to target key areas of guidance and provide a more in-depth discussion on each subject for those new to the concept of the Margin of Exposure approach.

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship.

Fish consumption during child bearing age: a quantitative risk-benefit analysis on neurodevelopment.

The fish ingredient N3-docosahexaenoic acid 22:6 n-3 (DHA) stimulates brain development. On the other hand methylmercury (MeHg) in fish disturbs the developing central nervous system. In this Context the IQ score in children is considered as an aggregate measure of in utero brain development. To determine the effect of DHA exposure on prenatal neurodevelopment the maternal DHA intake during pregnancy was compared with its epidemiologically observed effect on the IQ score of children. For MeHg the maternal intake was converted into its accumulation in the maternal body. The maternal body burden then was compared with its epidemiologically observed relationship with the IQ score. Taking the MeHg and DHA content of 33 fish species the net effect of these compounds on the IQ score was quantified. For most fish species the adverse effect of MeHg on the IQ score exceeded the beneficial effect of DHA. In the case of long-living predators a negative effect up to 10 points on the IQ score was found. The results of this study indicate that food interventions aiming at the beneficial effects of fish consumption should focus on fish species with a high DHA content, while avoiding fish species with a high MeHg content.

Benefit-risk assessment of plant sterols in margarine: a QALIBRA case study.

This paper presents the benefit-risk assessment of adding plant sterols to margarine as an illustration of the QALIBRA method and software. With the QALIBRA tool health effects, risks as well as benefits are expressed in a common metric (DALY) which allows quantitative balancing of benefits and risks of food intake. The QALIBRA software can handle uncertainties in a probabilistic simulation. This simple case study illustrates the data need and assumptions that go into a quantitative benefit-risk assessment. The assessment shows that the benefits of plant sterols added to margarine outweigh the risks, if any.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu.

Fish, contaminants and human health: quantifying and weighing benefits and risks.

This paper describes a quantitative risk-benefit assessment of fish consumption. We compare the net health effect expressed in DALYs of two scenarios. The reference scenario is the current fish intake of the Dutch population, which is less than what is recommended by the health authorities. The alternative scenario describes the health effects if the population consumes 200g of fish per week, which is close to the recommendation. All health effects due to fish consumption for which there is convincing evidence are incorporated in the assessment. The QALIBRA software (www.qalibra.eu) is used to simulate the two scenarios. The results show there is a net benefit for the population if it consumes 200g of fish each week.

Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on heat processing contaminants.

The aim of the European Funded Project BRAFO (benefit-risk analysis of foods) project was to develop a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods based on a common scale of measurement. This publication describes the application of the BRAFO methodology to three different case studies: the formation of acrylamide in potato and cereal based products, the formation of benzo(a)pyrene through smoking and grilling of meat and fish and the heat-treatment of milk. Reference, alternative scenario and target population represented the basic structure to test the tiers of the framework. Various intervention methods intended to reduce acrylamide in potato and cereal products were evaluated against the historical production methods. In conclusion the benefits of the acrylamide-reducing measures were considered prevailing. For benzo(a)pyrene, three illustrated alternative scenarios were evaluated against the most common smoking practice. The alternative scenarios were assessed as delivering benefits, introducing only minimal potential risks. Similar considerations were made for heat treatment of milk where the comparison of the microbiological effects of heat treatment, physico-chemical changes of milk constituents with positive and negative health effects was assessed. In general, based on data available, benefits of the heat treatment were outweighing any risks.