New inferences from tree shape: numbers of missing taxa and population growth rates.

The relative positions of branching events in a phylogeny contain information about evolutionary and population dynamic processes. We provide new summary statistics of branching event times and describe how these statistics can be used to infer rates of species diversification from interspecies trees or rates of population growth from intraspecies trees. We also introduce a phylogenetic method for estimating the level of taxon sampling in a clade. Different evolutionary models and different sampling regimes can produce similar patterns of branching events, so it is important to consider explicitly the model assumptions involved when making evolutionary inferences. Results of an analysis of the phylogeny of the mosquito-borne flaviviruses suggest that there could be several thousand currently unidentified viruses in this clade.

Phylogenetic analysis and comparative data: a test and review of evidence.

The question is often raised whether it is statistically necessary to control for phylogenetic associations in comparative studies. To investigate this question, we explore the use of a measure of phylogenetic correlation, lambda, introduced by Pagel (1999), that normally varies between 0 (phylogenetic independence) and 1 (species' traits covary in direct proportion to their shared evolutionary history). Simulations show lambda to be a statistically powerful index for measuring whether data exhibit phylogenetic dependence or not and whether it has low rates of Type I error. Moreover, lambda is robust to incomplete phylogenetic information, which demonstrates that even partial information on phylogeny will improve the accuracy of phylogenetic analyses. To assess whether traits generally show phylogenetic associations, we present a quantitative review of 26 published phylogenetic comparative data sets. The data sets include 103 traits and were chosen from the ecological literature in which debate about the need for phylogenetic correction has been most acute. Eighty-eight percent of data sets contained at least one character that displayed significant phylogenetic dependence, and 60% of characters overall (pooled across studies) showed significant evidence of phylogenetic association. In 16% of tests, phylogenetic correlation could be neither supported nor rejected. However, most of these equivocal results were found in small phylogenies and probably reflect a lack of power. We suggest that the parameter lambda be routinely estimated when analyzing comparative data, since it can also be used simultaneously to adjust the phylogenetic correction in a manner that is optimal for the data set, and we present an example of how this may be done.

The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading worldwide cause of liver disease. Here, we use a new model of HCV spread to investigate the epidemic behavior of the virus and to estimate its basic reproductive number from gene sequence data. We find significant differences in epidemic behavior among HCV subtypes and suggest that these differences are largely the result of subtype-specific transmission patterns. Our model builds a bridge between the disciplines of population genetics and mathematical epidemiology by using pathogen gene sequences to infer the population dynamic history of an infectious disease.

Cell cycle and biochemical effects of PD 0183812. A potent inhibitor of the cyclin D-dependent kinases CDK4 and CDK6.

Progression through the G1 phase of the cell cycle requires phosphorylation of the retinoblastoma gene product (pRb) by the cyclin D-dependent kinases CDK4 and CDK6, whose activity can specifically be blocked by the CDK inhibitor p16(INK4A). Misregulation of the pRb/cyclin D/p16(INK4A) pathway is one of the most common events in human cancer and has lead to the suggestion that inhibition of cyclin D-dependent kinase activity may have therapeutic value as an anticancer treatment. Through screening of a chemical library, we initially identified the [2,3-d]pyridopyrimidines as inhibitors of CDK4. Chemical modification resulted in the identification of PD 0183812 as a potent and highly selective inhibitor of both CDK4 and CDK6 kinase activity, which is competitive with ATP. Flow cytometry experiments showed that of the cell lines tested, only those expressing pRb demonstrated a G1 arrest when treated with PD 0183812. This arrest correlated in terms of incubation time and potency with a loss of pRb phosphorylation and a block in proliferation, which was reversible. These results suggest a potential use of this chemical class of compounds as therapeutic agents in the treatment of tumors with functional pRb, possessing cell cycle aberrations in other members of the pRb/cyclin D/p16(INK4A) pathway.

Comparative analyses for adaptive radiations.

Biologists generally agree that most morphological variation between closely related species is adaptive. The most common method of comparative analysis to test for co-evolved character variation is based on a Brownian-motion model of character evolution. If we are to test for the evolution of character-covariation, and we believe that characters have evolved adaptively to fill niches during an adaptive radiation, then it is appropriate to employ appropriate models for character evolution. We show here that under several models of adaptive character evolution and coevolution during an adaptive radiation, which result in closely related species being more similar to each other than to more distantly related species, cross-species analyses are statistically more appropriate than contrast analyses. If the evolution of some traits fits the Brownian-motion model, while others evolve to fill niches during an adaptive radiation, it might be necessary to identify the number of relevant niche dimensions and the modes of character evolution before deciding on appropriate statistical procedures. Alternatively, maximum-likelihood procedures might be used to determine appropriate transformations of phylogenetic branch lengths that accord with particular models of character evolution.

Mammalian metabolism, longevity and parasite species richness.

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) scales allometrically with body mass in mammals, but the reasons why some species have higher or lower metabolic rates than predicted from their body mass remain unclear. We tested the idea that parasite species richness may be a contributory factor by performing a comparative analysis on 23 species of mammals for which data were available on parasite species richness, BMR, body mass and two potentially confounding variables, i.e. host density and host longevity. Parasite species richness was positively correlated with BMR and negatively correlated with host longevity independent of body mass.

Mosaic evolution of brain structure in mammals.

The mammalian brain comprises a number of functionally distinct systems. It might therefore be expected that natural selection on particular behavioural capacities would have caused size changes selectively, in the systems mediating those capacities. It has been claimed, however, that developmental constraints limited such mosaic evolution, causing co-ordinated size change among individual brain components. Here we analyse comparative data to demonstrate that mosaic change has been an important factor in brain structure evolution. First, the neocortex shows about a fivefold difference in volume between primates and insectivores even after accounting for its scaling relationship with the rest of the brain. Second, brain structures with major anatomical and functional links evolved together independently of evolutionary change in other structures. This is true at the level of both basic brain subdivisions and more fine-grained functional systems. Hence, brain evolution in these groups involved complex relationships among individual brain components.

An integrated framework for the inference of viral population history from reconstructed genealogies.

We describe a unified set of methods for the inference of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from gene sequence data. We introduce the skyline plot, a graphical, nonparametric estimate of demographic history. We discuss both maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and demographic hypothesis testing. Simulations are carried out to investigate the statistical properties of maximum-likelihood estimates of demographic parameters. The simulations reveal that (i) the performance of exponential growth model estimates is determined by a simple function of the true parameter values and (ii) under some conditions, estimates from reconstructed trees perform as well as estimates from perfect trees. We apply our methods to HIV-1 sequence data and find strong evidence that subtypes A and B have different demographic histories. We also provide the first (albeit tentative) genetic evidence for a recent decrease in the growth rate of subtype B.

Lack of evidence for cospeciation between retroelements and their hosts.

Some literature is available on cospeciation and on reconstructing the phylogenetic relationships of retroelements, but relatively little consideration has been given to whether there is cospeciation between retroelements and their hosts. Here we address this problem in detail. We conclude that there is no significant evidence for cospeciation between retroelements and their hosts. This conclusion was reached by noting that the branching order of the two phylogenies was no more similar than would be expected by chance.

Evolution: to seek out new worlds.

A recent study of stickleback 'ecomorphs' generated by independent speciation events in different freshwater lakes suggests that, despite historical contingency, natural selection can run in surprisingly similar ways on multiple occasions.

Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies.

Phylogenies reconstructed from gene sequences can be used to investigate the tempo and mode of species diversification. Here we develop and use new statistical methods to infer past patterns of speciation and extinction from molecular phylogenies. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis that per-lineage speciation and extinction rates have remained constant through time. Rejection of this hypothesis may provide evidence for evolutionary events such as adaptive radiations or key adaptations. In contrast to previous approaches, our methods are robust to incomplete taxon sampling and are conservative with respect to extinction. Using simulation we investigate, first, the adverse effects of failing to take incomplete sampling into account and, second, the power and reliability of our tests. When applied to published phylogenies our tests suggest that, in some cases, speciation rates have decreased through time.

The mid-depth method and HIV-1: a practical approach for testing hypotheses of viral epidemic history.

We introduce the mid-depth method, a practical approach for testing hypotheses of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from sequence data. The relative positions of internal nodes within a genealogy contain information about past population dynamics. We explain how this information can be used to (1) test the null hypothesis of constant population size and (2) estimate the growth rate and current population size of an exponentially growing population. Simulation tests indicate that, as expected, estimates of exponential growth rates are sometimes biased. The mid-depth method is computationally rapid and does not require knowledge of the sample's mutation rate. However, it does assume that the reconstructed genealogy is correct and is therefore best suited to the analysis of variation-rich viral data sets. When applied to HIV-1 sequence data, the mid-depth method provides phylogenetic evidence of different exponential growth rates for subtypes A and B. We posit that this difference in growth rate reflects the different transmission routes and epidemiological histories of the two subtypes.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant.

Species patterns: evolution's competitive edge.

Phylogenetic analyses of island lizard faunas suggest that patterns in species distributions and body size evolution are the result of resource competition.

End-Epi: an application for inferring phylogenetic and population dynamical processes from molecular sequences.

MOTIVATION: Phylogenetic trees constructed from molecular sequences contain information about the evolutionary or population dynamical processes that created them. Here we describe a computer package (End-Epi) that uses graphical methods to allow researchers to make inferences about these processes from their data. Statistical analyses can be performed to test the consistency of the data with various competing hypotheses. AVAILABILITY: End-Epi can be obtained by WWW from http://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/ and by anonymous FTP from ftp://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/packages/End-Epi10.hqx. This file contains the compiled application, the manual and a test tree.

The effect of universal coverage on health expenditures for the uninsured.

OBJECTIVES: Universal coverage will trigger an increase in health-care spending, because the uninsured will use more services after they are insured. The effect of insurance status on expenditures is estimated here from a multivariate statistical model. METHODS: The model is estimated with data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey, aged to 1994 using population projections from the US Bureau of the Census and expenditure projections from the Health Care Financing Administration. RESULTS: Expenditures for the full-year uninsured increase by approximately $700 per person in 1994 as a result of universal coverage. Nearly half of the increase is because of a substantial increase in the likelihood of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: If the uninsured are enrolled in plans similar to those offered by employers currently, personal health-care spending increases by approximately $20 billion in 1994. There are other costs associated with universal coverage that are not included in this figure.

Elucidating the population histories and transmission dynamics of papillomaviruses using phylogenetic trees.

Using gene genealogies constructed from gene sequence data, we show that both the mucosal and cutaneous papillomaviruses (PV)-supergroups A and B-appear to have been transmitted through susceptible populations faster than exponentially. The data and methods involved (1) examining the PV database for phylogenetic signal in an L1 open reading frame (ORF) fragment and an E1 ORF segment, (2) demonstrating that the same two fragments have evolved in a way consistent with a molecular clock, and (3) applying methods of phylogenetic tree analysis that test different scenarios for the dynamics of viral transmission within populations. The results indicate increases in PV populations of both supergroups A and B in the recent past. This form of the increases, which fit a null model of population growth with an exponent increasing in time, is compatible with the fact that human populations have grown at a faster than exponential rate, thus increasing the numbers of susceptible hosts for HPVs. There are, however, indications that the population of supergroup A has now stopped increasing in size.

Determinants of rate variation in mammalian DNA sequence evolution.

Attempts to analyze variation in the rates of molecular evolution among mammalian lineages have been hampered by paucity of data and by nonindependent comparisons. Using phylogenetically independent comparisons, we test three explanations for rate variation which predict correlations between rate variation and generation time, metabolic rate, and body size. Mitochondrial and nuclear genes, protein coding, rRNA, and nontranslated sequences from 61 mammal species representing 14 orders are used to compare the relative rates of sequence evolution. Correlation analyses performed on differences in genetic distance since common origin of each pair against differences in body mass, generation time, and metabolic rate reveal that substitution rate at fourfold degenerate sites in two out of three protein sequences is negatively correlated with generation time. In addition, there is a relationship between the rate of molecular evolution and body size for two nuclear-encoded sequences. No evidence is found for an effect of metabolic rate on rate of sequence evolution. Possible causes of variation in substitution rate between species are discussed.