A new perspective when examining maize fertilizer nitrogen use efficiency, incrementally.

For maize (Zea mays L.), nitrogen (N) fertilizer use is often summarized from field to global scales using average N use efficiency (NUE). But expressing NUE as averages is misleading because grain increase to added N diminishes near optimal yield. Thus, environmental risks increase as economic benefits decrease. Here, we use empirical datasets obtained in North America of maize grain yield response to N fertilizer (n = 189) to create and interpret incremental NUE (iNUE), or the change in NUE with change in N fertilization. We show for those last units of N applied to reach economic optimal N rate (EONR) iNUE for N removed with the grain is only about 6%. Conversely stated, for those last units of N applied over 90% is either lost to the environment during the growing season, remains as inorganic soil N that too may be lost after the growing season, or has been captured within maize stover and roots or soil organic matter pools. Results also showed iNUE decrease averaged 0.63% for medium-textured soils and 0.37% for fine-textured soils, attributable to fine-textured soils being more predisposed to denitrification and/or lower mineralization. Further analysis demonstrated the critical nature growing season water amount and distribution has on iNUE. Conditions with too much rainfall and/or uneven rainfall produced low iNUE. Producers realize this from experience, and it is uncertain weather that largely drives insurance fertilizer additions. Nitrogen fertilization creating low iNUE is environmentally problematic. Our results show that with modest sub-EONR fertilization and minor forgone profit, average NUE improvements of ~10% can be realized. Further, examining iNUE creates unique perspective and ideas for how to improve N fertilizer management tools, educational programs, and public policies and regulations.

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest.

Increasing temperatures in the US Midwest are projected to reduce maize yields because warmer temperatures hasten reproductive development and, as a result, shorten the grain fill period. However, there is widespread expectation that farmers will mitigate projected yield losses by planting longer season hybrids that lengthen the grain fill period. Here, we ask: (a) how current hybrid maturity length relates to thermal availability of the local climate, and (b) if farmers are shifting to longer season hybrids in response to a warming climate. To address these questions, we used county-level Pioneer brand hybrid sales (Corteva Agriscience) across 17 years and 650 counties in 10 Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, and WI). Northern counties were shown to select hybrid maturities with growing degree day (GDD°C) requirements more closely related to the environmentally available GDD compared to central and southern counties. This measure, termed "thermal overlap," ranged from complete 106% in northern counties to a mere 63% in southern counties. The relationship between thermal overlap and latitude was fit using split-line regression and a breakpoint of 42.8°N was identified. Over the 17-years, hybrid maturities shortened across the majority of the Midwest with only a minority of counties lengthening in select northern and southern areas. The annual change in maturity ranged from -5.4 to 4.1 GDD year-1 with a median of -0.9 GDD year-1 . The shortening of hybrid maturity contrasts with widespread expectations of hybrid maturity aligning with magnitude of warming. Factors other than thermal availability appear to more strongly impact farmer decision-making such as the benefit of shorter maturity hybrids on grain drying costs, direct delivery to ethanol biorefineries, field operability, labor constraints, and crop genetics availability. Prediction of hybrid choice under future climate scenarios must include climatic factors, physiological-genetic attributes, socio-economic, and operational constraints.

Do scientists have a responsibility to provide climate change expertise to mitigation and adaptation strategies? Perspectives from climate professionals.

Although the scientific community has reached a consensus that anthropogenic climate change is a severe and pressing issue, climate change remains a contentious debate with the United States public. Through a survey (N = 273), we explored climate professionals' perspectives on their role and responsibility to promote climate change adaptation/mitigation strategies related to agroecosystems. They believed that climate professionals have a social responsibility to provide scientific input to both policymakers and the public. There was strong agreement that media, political, and public support is necessary for development, and near unanimous agreement for implementation, of climate change mitigation/adaptation strategies. This study highlights the climate professionals' perceptions of their responsibility to provide scientific input, but also demonstrates that they believe the responsibility does not rest solely on their shoulders. Further research should explore scientists' perceptions of their and others' policy roles and scientists' interactions with different influencers of adaptation/mitigation policy.

Toward a Better Understanding of Genotype × Environment × Management Interactions-A Global Wheat Initiative Agronomic Research Strategy.

The Wheat Initiative (WI) and the WI Expert Working Group (EWG) for Agronomy (www.wheatinitiative.org) were formed with a collective goal to "coordinate global wheat research efforts to increase wheat production, quality, and sustainability to advance food security and safety under changing climate conditions." The Agronomy EWG is responsive to the WI's research need, "A knowledge exchange strategy to ensure uptake of innovations on farm and to update scientists on changing field realities." The Agronomy EWG aims to consolidate global expertise for agronomy with a focus on wheat production systems. The overarching approach is to develop and adopt a systems-agronomy framework relevant to any wheat production system. It first establishes the scale of current yield gaps, identifies defensible benchmarks, and takes a holistic approach to understand and overcome exploitable yield gaps to complement genetic increases in potential yield. New opportunities to increase productivity will be sought by exploiting future Genotype × Environment × Management synergies in different wheat systems. To identify research gaps and opportunities for collaboration among different wheat producing regions, the EWG compiled a comprehensive database of currently funded wheat agronomy research (n = 782) in countries representing a large proportion of the wheat grown in the world. The yield gap analysis and research database positions the EWG to influence priorities for wheat agronomy research in member countries that would facilitate collaborations, minimize duplication, and maximize the global impact on wheat production systems. This paper outlines a vision for a global WI agronomic research strategy and discusses activities to date. The focus of the WI-EWG is to transform the agronomic research approach in wheat cropping systems, which will be applicable to other crop species.

Yield Gaps in Wheat: Path to Enhancing Productivity.

Wheat production is required to supply food for the world's population, and increases in production will be necessary to feed the expanding population. Estimates show that production must increase by 1 billion metric tons to meet this demand. One method to meet future demand is to increase wheat yields by reducing the gap between actual and potential yields. Potential yields represent an optimum set of conditions, and a more realistic metric would be to compare actual yields with attainable yields, where these yields represent years in the record where there is no obvious limitation. This study was conducted to evaluate the yield trends, attainable yields, and yield gaps for the 10 largest wheat producing countries in the world and more localized yield statistics at the state or county level. These data were assembled from available government sources. Attainable yield was determined using an upper quantile analysis to define the upper frontier of yields over the period of record and yield gaps calculated as the difference between attainable yield and actual yield for each year and expressed as a percentage of the attainable yield. In all countries, attainable yield increase over time was larger than the yield trend indicating the technological advances in genetics and agronomic practices were increasing attainable yield. Yield gaps have not shown a decrease over time and reflect that weather during the growing season remains the primary limitation to production. Yield gap closure will require that local producers adopt practices that increase their climate resilience in wheat production systems.

Evaluating maize and soybean grain dry-down in the field with predictive algorithms and genotype-by-environment analysis.

A delayed harvest of maize and soybean crops is associated with yield or revenue losses, whereas a premature harvest requires additional costs for artificial grain drying. Accurately predicting the ideal harvest date can increase profitability of US Midwest farms, but today's predictive capacity is low. To fill this gap, we collected and analyzed time-series grain moisture datasets from field experiments in Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota, US with various maize (n = 102) and soybean (n = 36) genotype-by-environment treatments. Our goal was to examine factors driving the post-maturity grain drying process, and develop scalable algorithms for decision-making. The algorithms evaluated are driven by changes in the grain equilibrium moisture content (function of air relative humidity and temperature) and require three input parameters: moisture content at physiological maturity, a drying coefficient and a power constant. Across independent genotypes and environments, the calibrated algorithms accurately predicted grain dry-down of maize (r2 = 0.79; root mean square error, RMSE = 1.8% grain moisture) and soybean field crops (r2 = 0.72; RMSE = 6.7% grain moisture). Evaluation of variance components and treatment effects revealed that genotypes, weather-years, and planting dates had little influence on the post-maturity drying coefficient, but significantly influenced grain moisture content at physiological maturity. Therefore, accurate implementation of the algorithms across environments would require estimating the initial grain moisture content, via modeling approaches or in-field measurements. Our work contributes new insights to understand the post-maturity grain dry-down and provides a robust and scalable predictive algorithm to forecast grain dry-down and ideal harvest dates across environments in the US Corn Belt.

Water-Use Efficiency: Advances and Challenges in a Changing Climate.

Water use efficiency (WUE) is defined as the amount of carbon assimilated as biomass or grain produced per unit of water used by the crop. One of the primary questions being asked is how plants will respond to a changing climate with changes in temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) that affect their WUE At the leaf level, increasing CO2 increases WUE until the leaf is exposed to temperatures exceeded the optimum for growth (i.e., heat stress) and then WUE begins to decline. Leaves subjected to water deficits (i.e., drought stress) show varying responses in WUE. The response of WUE at the leaf level is directly related to the physiological processes controlling the gradients of CO2 and H2O, e.g., leaf:air vapor pressure deficits, between the leaf and air surrounding the leaf. There a variety of methods available to screen genetic material for enhanced WUE under scenarios of climate change. When we extend from the leaf to the canopy, then the dynamics of crop water use and biomass accumulation have to consider soil water evaporation rate, transpiration from the leaves, and the growth pattern of the crop. Enhancing WUE at the canopy level can be achieved by adopting practices that reduce the soil water evaporation component and divert more water into transpiration which can be through crop residue management, mulching, row spacing, and irrigation. Climate change will affect plant growth, but we have opportunities to enhance WUE through crop selection and cultural practices to offset the impact of a changing climate.

Agroclimatology and Wheat Production: Coping with Climate Change.

Cereal production around the world is critical to the food supply for the human population. Crop productivity is primarily determined by a combination of temperature and precipitation because temperatures have to be in the range for plant growth and precipitation has to supply crop water requirements for a given environment. The question is often asked about the changes in productivity and what we can expect in the future and we evaluated the causes for variation in historical annual statewide wheat grain yields in Oklahoma, Kansas, and North Dakota across the Great Plains of United States. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is adapted to this area and we focused on production in these states from 1950 to 2016. This analysis used a framework for annual yields using yield gaps between attainable and actual yields and found the primary cause of the variation among years were attributable to inadequate precipitation during the grain-filling period. In Oklahoma, wheat yields were reduced when April and May precipitation was limited (r2 = 0.70), while in Kansas, May precipitation was the dominant factor (r2 = 0.78), and in North Dakota June-July precipitation was the factor explaining yield variation (r2 = 0.65). Temperature varied among seasons and at the statewide level did not explain a significant portion of the yield variation. The pattern of increased variation in precipitation will cause further variation in wheat production across the Great Plains. Reducing yield variation among years will require adaptation practices that increase water availability to the crop coupled with the positive impact derived from other management practices, e.g., cultivars, fertilizer management, etc.

Modeled nitrous oxide emissions from corn fields in iowa based on county level data.

The U.S. Corn Belt area has the capacity to generate high nitrous oxide (NO) emissions due to medium to high annual precipitation, medium- to heavy-textured soils rich in organic matter, and high nitrogen (N) application rates. The purpose of this work was to estimate NO emissions from cornfields in Iowa at the county level using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model and to compare the DNDC NO emission estimates with available results from field experiments. All data were acquired for 2007 to 2011. Weather Underground Network and the Iowa State University Iowa Soil Properties and Interpretation Database 7.3 were the data sources for DNDC inputs and for computing county soil parameters. The National Agriculture Statistic Service 5-yr averages for corn yield data were used to establish ex post fertilizer N input at the county level. The DNDC output suggested county-wide NO emissions in Iowa ranged from 2.2 kg NO-N ha yr in south-central to 4.6 to 4.7 kg NO-N ha yr in north-central and eastern Iowa counties. In northern districts, the average direct NO emissions were 3.2, 4.4, and 3.6 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. In central districts, average NO emissions were 3.5, 3.9, and 3.4 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. For southern districts, NO emissions were 3.5, 2.6, and 3.1 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. Direct NO emissions estimated by the DNDC model were 1.93% of N fertilizer input to corn fields in Iowa, with values ranging from 1.66% in the northwest cropping district to 2.25% in the north-central cropping district. These values are higher than the average 1% loss rate used in the IPCC Tier 1 approach.

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

Particulate emissions calculations from fall tillage operations using point and remote sensors.

Soil preparation for agricultural crops produces aerosols that may significantly contribute to seasonal atmospheric particulate matter (PM). Efforts to reduce PM emissions from tillage through a variety of conservation management practices (CMPs) have been made, but the reductions from many of these practices have not been measured in the field. A study was conducted in California's San Joaquin Valley to quantify emissions reductions from fall tillage CMP. Emissions were measured from conventional tillage methods and from a "combined operations" CMP, which combines several implements to reduce tractor passes. Measurements were made of soil moisture, bulk density, meteorological profiles, filter-based total suspended PM (TSP), concentrations of PM with an equivalent aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM) and PM with an equivalent aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM), and aerosol size distribution. A mass-calibrated, scanning, three-wavelength light detection and ranging (LIDAR) procedure estimated PM through a series of algorithms. Emissions were calculated via inverse modeling with mass concentration measurements and applying a mass balance to LIDAR data. Inverse modeling emission estimates were higher, often with statistically significant differences. Derived PM emissions for conventional operations generally agree with literature values. Sampling irregularities with a few filter-based samples prevented calculation of a complete set of emissions through inverse modeling; however, the LIDAR-based emissions dataset was complete. The CMP control effectiveness was calculated based on LIDAR-derived emissions to be 29 ± 2%, 60 ± 1%, and 25 ± 1% for PM, PM, and TSP size fractions, respectively. Implementation of this CMP provides an effective method for the reduction of PM emissions.

Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa.

The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in the recent past due to frequent detections of nitrate concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrate concentrations in the Raccoon River. The analysis relies on a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic process to model the serial dependence of volatility of the monthly nitrate concentrations in the Raccoon River. Monthly nitrate concentration data from Des Moines Water Works at Van Meter from 1992 to 2008 are used in the study. We found no statistically significant increasing trend in nitrate concentrations over the study period. There are substantial intra-annual variations in nitrate concentrations, and we noted a very strong seasonal pattern. Variations in rainfall and temperature contribute more to the monthly variation in nitrate concentration than do the changes in nitrogen application rates.

Comparison of field-scale herbicide runoff and volatilization losses: an eight-year field investigation.

An 8-yr study was conducted to better understand factors influencing year-to-year variability in field-scale herbicide volatilization and surface runoff losses. The 21-ha research site is located at the USDA-ARS Beltsville Agricultural Research Center in Beltsville, MD. Site location, herbicide formulations, and agricultural management practices remained unchanged throughout the duration of the study. Metolachlor [2-chloro--(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)--(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide] and atrazine [6-chloro--ethyl--(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] were coapplied as a surface broadcast spray. Herbicide runoff was monitored from a month before application through harvest. A flux gradient technique was used to compute volatilization fluxes for the first 5 d after application using herbicide concentration profiles and turbulent fluxes of heat and water vapor as determined from eddy covariance measurements. Results demonstrated that volatilization losses for these two herbicides were significantly greater than runoff losses ( < 0.007), even though both have relatively low vapor pressures. The largest annual runoff loss for metolachlor never exceeded 2.5%, whereas atrazine runoff never exceeded 3% of that applied. On the other hand, herbicide cumulative volatilization losses after 5 d ranged from about 5 to 63% of that applied for metolachlor and about 2 to 12% of that applied for atrazine. Additionally, daytime herbicide volatilization losses were significantly greater than nighttime vapor losses ( < 0.05). This research confirmed that vapor losses for some commonly used herbicides frequently exceeds runoff losses and herbicide vapor losses on the same site and with the same management practices can vary significantly year to year depending on local environmental conditions.

Crop residues: the rest of the story.

Sinking agricultural botanical and soil residues to the deep seafloor may not be a viable option for long-term carbon sequestration.

Soil moisture and metolachlor volatilization observations over three years.

A 3-yr study was conducted to focus on the impact of surface soil water content on metolachlor (2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide) volatilization from a field with different surface soil water regimes created by subsurface water flow paths. Metolachlor vapor fluxes were measured at two locations within the field where local meteorological and soil conditions were relatively constant, except for surface soil water content, which differed significantly. Surface soil water content at the two sites differed in response to the presence of subsurface flow pathways. Detailed soil moisture observations over the duration of the study showed that for the first 2 yr (2004 and 2005), surface soil water contents at the dry location (V1) were nearly half those at the wetter location (V2). Cumulative metolachlor vapor fluxes during 2004 and 2005 at V1 were also about half that at V2. In the third year (2006), early-season drought conditions rendered the soil water content at the two locations to be nearly identical, resulting in similar metolachlor volatilization losses. Analysis of infrared soil surface temperatures suggests a correlation between surface soil temperatures and metolachlor volatilization when soils are wet (2004 and 2005) but not when the soils are dry (2006). Field-averaged metolachlor volatilization losses were highly correlated with increasing surface soil water contents (r(2) = 0.995).

Comparison of DAYCENT-simulated and measured nitrous oxide emissions from a corn field.

Accurate assessment of N(2)O emission from soil requires continuous year-round and spatially extensive monitoring or the use of simulation that accurately and precisely predict N(2)O fluxes based on climatic, soil, and agricultural system input data. DAYCENT is an ecosystem model that simulates, among other processes, N(2)O emissions from soils. The purpose of the study was to compare N(2)O fluxes predicted by the DAYCENT model to measured N(2)O fluxes from an experimental corn field in central Iowa. Soil water content temperature and inorganic N, simulated by DAYCENT were compared to measured values of these variables. Field N(2)O emissions were measured using four replicated automated chambers at 6-h intervals, from day of year (DOY) 42 through DOY 254 of 2006. We observed that DAYCENT generally accurately predicted soil temperature, with the exception of winter when predicted temperatures tended to be lower than measured values. Volumetric water contents predicted by DAYCENT were generally lower than measured values during most of the experimental period. Daily N(2)O emissions simulated by DAYCENT were significantly correlated to field measured fluxes; however, time series analyses indicate that the simulated fluxes were out of phase with the measured fluxes. Cumulative N(2)O emission calculated from the simulations (3.29 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)) was in range of the measured cumulative N(2)O emission (4.26 +/- 1.09 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)).

EPIC modeling of soil organic carbon sequestration in croplands of Iowa.

Depending on management, soil organic carbon (SOC) is a potential source or sink for atmospheric CO(2). We used the EPIC model to study impacts of soil and crop management on SOC in corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) croplands of Iowa. The National Agricultural Statistics Service crops classification maps were used to identify corn-soybean areas. Soil properties were obtained from a combination of SSURGO and STATSGO databases. Daily weather variables were obtained from first order meteorological stations in Iowa and neighboring states. Data on crop management, fertilizer application and tillage were obtained from publicly available databases maintained by the NRCS, USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS), and Conservation Technology Information Center. The EPIC model accurately simulated state averages of crop yields during 1970-2005 (R(2) = 0.87). Simulated SOC explained 75% of the variation in measured SOC. With current trends in conservation tillage adoption, total stock of SOC (0-20 cm) is predicted to reach 506 Tg by 2019, representing an increase of 28 Tg with respect to 1980. In contrast, when the whole soil profile was considered, EPIC estimated a decrease of SOC stocks with time, from 1835 Tg in 1980 to 1771 Tg in 2019. Hence, soil depth considered for calculations is an important factor that needs further investigation. Soil organic C sequestration rates (0-20 cm) were estimated at 0.50 to 0.63 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) depending on climate and soil conditions. Overall, combining land use maps with EPIC proved valid for predicting impacts of management practices on SOC. However, more data on spatial and temporal variation in SOC are needed to improve model calibration and validation.

Greenhouse gas emissions from two soils receiving nitrogen fertilizer and swine manure slurry.

The interactive effects of soil texture and type of N fertility (i.e., manure vs. commercial N fertilizer) on N(2)O and CH(4) emissions have not been well established. This study was conducted to assess the impact of soil type and N fertility on greenhouse gas fluxes (N(2)O, CH(4), and CO(2)) from the soil surface. The soils used were a sandy loam (789 g kg(-1) sand and 138 g kg(-1) clay) and a clay soil (216 g kg(-1) sand, and 415 g kg(-1) clay). Chamber experiments were conducted using plastic buckets as the experimental units. The treatments applied to each soil type were: (i) control (no added N), (ii) urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN), and (iii) liquid swine manure slurry. Greenhouse gas fluxes were measured over 8 weeks. Within the UAN and swine manure treatments both N(2)O and CH(4) emissions were greater in the sandy loam than in the clay soil. In the sandy loam soil N(2)O emissions were significantly different among all N treatments, but in the clay soil only the manure treatment had significantly higher N(2)O emissions. It is thought that the major differences between the two soils controlling both N(2)O and CH(4) emissions were cation exchange capacity (CEC) and percent water-filled pore space (%WFPS). We speculate that the higher CEC in the clay soil reduced N availability through increased adsorption of NH(4)(+) compared to the sandy loam soil. In addition the higher average %WFPS in the sandy loam may have favored higher denitrification and CH(4) production than in the clay soil.

Solar radiation, relative humidity, and soil water effects on metolachlor volatilization.

Pesticide volatilization is a significant loss pathway that may have unintended consequences in nontarget environments. Field-scale pesticide volatilization involves the interaction of a number of complex variables. There is a need to acquire pesticide volatilization fluxes from a location where several of these variables can be held constant. Accordingly, soil properties, tillage practices, surface residue management, and pesticide formulations were held constant while fundamental information regarding metolachlor volatilization (a pre-emergent pesticide) was monitored over a five-year period as influenced by meteorological variables and soil water content. Metolachlor vapor concentrations were measured continuously for 120 h after each application using polyurethane foam plugs in a logarithmic profile above the soil surface. A flux gradient technique was used to compute volatilization fluxes from metolachlor concentration profiles and turbulent fluxes of heat and water vapor (as determined from eddy covariance measurements). Differences in meteorological conditions and surface soil water contents resulted in variability of the volatilization losses over the years studied. The peak volatilization losses for each year occurred during the first 24 h after application with a maximum flux rate in 2001 (1500 ng m(-2) s(-1)) associated with wet surface soil conditions combined with warm temperatures. The cumulative volatilization losses for the 120-hour period following metolachlor application varied over the years from 5 to 25% of the applied active ingredient, with approximately 87% of the losses occurring during the first 72 h. In all of the years studied, volatilization occurred diurnally and accounted for between 43 and 86% during the day and 14 and 57% during the night of the total measured loss. The results suggest that metolachlor volatilization is influenced by multiple factors involving meteorological, surface soil, and chemical factors.