The fuel of atmospheric chemistry: Toward a complete description of reactive organic carbon.

The Earth's atmosphere contains a multitude of emitted (primary) and chemically formed (secondary) gases and particles that degrade air quality and modulate the climate. Reactive organic carbon (ROC) species are the fuel of the chemistry of the atmosphere, dominating short-lived emissions, reactivity, and the secondary production of key species such as ozone, particulate matter, and carbon dioxide. Despite the central importance of ROC, the diversity and complexity of this class of species has been a longstanding obstacle to developing a comprehensive understanding of how the composition of our atmosphere, and the associated environmental implications, will evolve. Here, we characterize the role of ROC in atmospheric chemistry and the challenges inherent in measuring and modeling ROC, and highlight recent progress toward achieving mass closure for the complete description of atmospheric ROC.

Causes and consequences of decreasing atmospheric organic aerosol in the United States.

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is a leading source of premature mortality globally. Organic aerosol contributes a significant fraction of PM in the United States. Here, using surface observations between 1990 and 2012, we show that organic carbon has declined dramatically across the entire United States by 25-50%; accounting for more than 30% of the US-wide decline in PM. The decline is in contrast with the increasing organic aerosol due to wildfires and no clear trend in biogenic emissions. By developing a carbonaceous emissions database for the United States, we show that at least two-thirds of the decline in organic aerosol can be explained by changes in anthropogenic emissions, primarily from vehicle emissions and residential fuel burning. We estimate that the decrease in anthropogenic organic aerosol is responsible for averting 180,000 (117,000-389,000) premature deaths between 1990 and 2012. The unexpected decrease in organic aerosol, likely a consequence of the implementation of Clean Air Act Amendments, results in 84,000 (30,000-164,000) more lives saved than anticipated by the EPA between 2000 and 2010.

Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from U.S. anthropogenic sources is decreasing. However, previous studies have predicted that PM2.5 emissions from wildfires will increase in the midcentury to next century, potentially offsetting improvements gained by continued reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, some regions could experience worse air quality, degraded visibility, and increases in population-level exposure. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the impacts of changing fire emissions on air quality, visibility, and premature deaths in the middle and late 21st century. We find that PM2.5 concentrations will decrease overall in the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to decreasing anthropogenic emissions (total PM2.5 decreases by 3% in Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5 and 34% in RCP4.5 by 2100), but increasing fire-related PM2.5 (fire-related PM2.5 increases by 55% in RCP4.5 and 190% in RCP8.5 by 2100) offsets these benefits and causes increases in total PM2.5 in some regions. We predict that the average visibility will improve across the CONUS, but fire-related PM2.5 will reduce visibility on the worst days in western and southeastern U.S. regions. We estimate that the number of deaths attributable to total PM2.5 will decrease in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (from 6% to 4-5%), but the absolute number of premature deaths attributable to fire-related PM2.5 will double compared to early 21st century. We provide the first estimates of future smoke health and visibility impacts using a prognostic land-fire model. Our results suggest the importance of using realistic fire emissions in future air quality projections.

Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham Risk Score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women. CONCLUSION: Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Phyto-oestrogens and risk of prostate cancer in Scottish men.

A population-based case-control study of diet, inherited susceptibility and prostate cancer was undertaken in the lowlands and central belt of Scotland to investigate the effect of phyto-oestrogen intake and serum concentrations on prostate cancer risk. A total of 433 cases and 483 controls aged 50-74 years were asked to complete a validated FFQ and provide a non-fasting blood sample. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found significant inverse associations with increased serum concentrations of enterolactone (adjusted OR 0.40, 95 % CI 0.22, 0.71] and with the consumption of soy foods (adjusted OR 0.52, 95 % CI 0.30, 0.91). However, no significant associations were observed for isoflavone intake or serum genistein, daidzein and equol. This study supports the hypotheses that soy foods and enterolactone metabolised from dietary lignans protect against prostate cancer in older Scottish men.

Risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease associated with the ankle-brachial index: Systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the strength and consistency with which a low ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), measured in the general population, is associated with an increased risk of subsequent death and/or cardiovascular events. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, reference lists and grey literature were searched; studies known to experts were also retrieved. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke. REVIEW METHODS: Longitudinal studies in which participants were representative of the general population (all ages, either sex) and which used any standard method for measurement and calculation of the ABI. Studies in which participants were selected according to presence of pre-existing disease or were post intervention (e.g. angioplasty or peripheral arterial grafting) were excluded. RESULTS: 11 studies comprising 44,590 subjects from six different countries were included. Despite clinical heterogeneity between studies, the findings were remarkably consistent in demonstrating an increased risk of clinical cardiovascular disease associated with a low ABI. A low ABI (<0.9) was associated with an increased risk of subsequent all cause mortality (pooled RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.32-1.95), cardiovascular mortality (pooled RR 1.96, 95% CI 1.46-2.64), coronary heart disease (pooled RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.08-1.93) and stroke (pooled RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.65) after adjustment for age, sex, conventional cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: The ABI may help to identify asymptomatic individuals in the general population who are at increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. Evaluation is now required of the potential of incorporating ABI measurement into cardiovascular prevention programmes.

Phyto-oestrogen intake in Scottish men: use of serum to validate a self-administered food-frequency questionnaire in older men.

OBJECTIVE: To study dietary intake and serum concentrations of isoflavones in order to provide relative validation of isoflavone intake estimates from the Scottish Collaborative Group - Food-Frequency Questionnaire (SCG-FFQ). DESIGN: Validation study. SETTING: Southern Scotland. METHOD: Dietary intake of isoflavones was estimated using the semiquantitative SCG-FFQ and rank correlation and Kappa statistics were used for the relative validation of intakes against serum isoflavone concentrations in 203 male participants who were population controls in a case-control study of diet and prostate cancer. RESULTS: The median intake of isoflavones (daidzein and genistein) was 1.0mg/day (l-QR 0.6-1.8). The median serum concentration of genistein was 33.79 nmol/l (I-QR 14.12-64.93), nearly twice that of daidzein (18.00 nmol/l, I-QR 8.26-29.45). Equol was detected in 49% of subjects; in these subjects the median was 0.67 nmol/l (I-QR 0.34-1.51). Isoflavone intake was significantly correlated with serum concentrations of daidzein (p = 0.24, P = 0.001), genistein (p = 0.26, P < 0.001) and total isoflavonoids (sum of daidzein, genistein and equol) ( p = 0.27, P < 0.001). Whereas values for weighted Kappa ranged from 0.16 (P = 0.002) for daidzein and equol combined to 0.22 (P < 0.001) for genistein. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the suitability of the SCG-FFQ to rank usual isoflavone intakes in older Scottish men, a population observed to have low consumption of soy foods.