Successes and Opportunities during the Pandemic: Reflections and Revelations from a Vaccine Development Perspective.

The Centre of Regulatory Excellence (CoRE) launched an annual lecture series in 2021 in Singapore to honor the memory of the late Professor Sir Alasdair Breckenridge, CoRE's founding Chair, and foster dialogue on global biomedical and regulatory perspectives, challenges, and advances. The 2022 Sir Alasdair Breckenridge Lecture "Success and Opportunities in the Pandemic" was delivered by Dr Penny M Heaton, former CEO of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Research Institute and current Global Therapeutics Lead for Vaccines at Johnson & Johnson. Dr Heaton highlighted key lessons on the importance of trust, collaboration, and transparency in the context of health care and vaccine production.

Randomized Study of Rivaroxaban vs Placebo on Disease Progression and Symptoms Resolution in High-Risk Adults With Mild Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection may be associated with a prothrombotic state, predisposing patients for a progressive disease course. We investigated whether rivaroxaban, a direct oral anticoagulant factor Xa inhibitor, would reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progression. METHODS: Adults (N = 497) with mild COVID-19 symptoms and at high risk for COVID-19 progression based on age, body mass index, or comorbidity were randomized 1:1 to either daily oral rivaroxaban 10 mg (N = 246) or placebo equivalent (N = 251) for 21 days and followed to day 35. Primary end points were safety and progression. Absolute difference in progression risk was assessed using a stratified Miettinen and Nurminen method. RESULTS: The study was terminated after 497 of the target 600 participants were enrolled due to a prespecified interim analysis of the first 200 participants that crossed the futility boundary for the primary efficacy end point in the intent-to-treat population. Enrollees were 85% aged <65 years; 60% female; 27% Hispanic, Black, or other minorities; and 69% with ≥2 comorbidities. Rivaroxaban was well tolerated. Disease progression rates were 46 of 222 (20.7%) in rivaroxaban vs 44 of 222 (19.8%) in placebo groups, with a risk difference of -1.0 (95% confidence interval, -6.4 to 8.4; P = .78). CONCLUSIONS: We did not demonstrate an impact of rivaroxaban on disease progression in high-risk adults with mild COVID-19. There remains a critical public health gap in identifying scalable effective therapies for high-risk people in the outpatient setting to prevent COVID-19 progression.

Bringing Preventive RSV Monoclonal Antibodies to Infants in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Challenges and Opportunities.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in infants. Most deaths occur in infants under 3 months old, and those living in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). There are no maternal or infant RSV vaccines currently approved. An RSV monoclonal antibody (mAb) could fill the gap until vaccines are available. It could also be used when a vaccine is not given, or when there is insufficient time to vaccinate and generate an antibody response. The only currently approved RSV mAb, palivizumab, is too costly and needs monthly administration, which is not possible in LMICs. It is imperative that a safe, effective, and affordable mAb to prevent severe RSV LRTI be developed for infants in LMICs. Next generation, half-life extended mAbs in clinical development, such as nirsevimab, show promise in protecting infants against RSV LRTI. Given that a single dose could cover an entire 5-month season, there is an opportunity to make RSV mAbs affordable for LMICs by investing in improvements in manufacturing efficiency. The challenges of using RSV mAbs in LMICs are the complexities of integrating them into existing healthcare delivery programs and surveillance systems, both of which are needed to define seasonal patterns, and monitor for escape mutants. Collaboration with key stakeholders such as the World Health Organization and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, will be essential for achieving this goal.

Challenges of Developing Novel Vaccines With Particular Global Health Importance.

Six of the top ten leading causes of death in low resource settings could potentially be prevented by vaccination. Development of vaccines for individuals in these populations is difficult because of the biological complexity of the prevalent pathogens and the challenges inherent to development of any vaccine. This review discusses those challenges and promising advances to address them and highlights recent progress in development of vaccines against several pathogens of interest.

Clinical trials in the pandemic age: What is fit for purpose?

It is critical to ensure that COVID-19 studies provide clear and timely answers to the scientific questions that will guide us to scalable solutions for all global regions. Significant challenges in operationalizing trials include public policies for managing the pandemic, public health and clinical capacity, travel and migration, and availability of tests and infrastructure. These factors lead to spikes and troughs in patient count by location, disrupting the ability to predict when or if a trial will reach recruitment goals. The focus must also be on understanding how to provide equitable access to these interventions ensuring that interventions reach those who need them the most, be it patients in low resource settings or vulnerable groups.  We introduce a website to be used by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and other funders of the COVID Therapeutics Accelerator that accept proposals for future clinical research. The portal enables evaluations of clinical study applications that focus on study qualities most likely to lead to informative outcomes and completed studies.

Why Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance?

Recognizing the need for better primary data on the causes of global child mortality, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation made an unusually long funding commitment toward a surveillance system using pathology to identify opportunities to prevent child deaths and promote equity.

Estimating the cost of vaccine development against epidemic infectious diseases: a cost minimisation study.

BACKGROUND: The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations was established in 2016, to develop vaccines that can contribute to preparedness for outbreaks of epidemic infectious diseases. Evidence on vaccine development costs for such diseases is scarce. Our goal was to estimate the minimum cost for achieving vaccine research and development preparedness targets in a portfolio of 11 epidemic infectious diseases, accounting for vaccine pipeline constraints and uncertainty in research and development preparedness outcomes. METHODS: We assembled a pipeline of 224 vaccine candidates from preclinical through to phase 2 for 11 priority epidemic infectious diseases. We used a linear regression model to identify drivers of development costs from preclinical through to end of phase 2a. Drawing from published estimates of vaccine research and development probabilities of success, we simulated costs for advancing these 224 vaccine candidates through to the end of phase 2a. We combined these findings to determine minimum costs for progressing at least one vaccine through to the end of phase 2a per epidemic infectious disease by means of a stochastic optimisation model. FINDINGS: The cost of developing a single epidemic infectious disease vaccine from preclinical trials through to end of phase 2a is US$31-68 million (US$14-159 million range), assuming no risk of failure. We found that previous licensure experience and indirect costs are upward drivers of research and development costs. Accounting for probability of success, the average cost of successfully advancing at least one epidemic infectious disease vaccine through to the end of phase 2a can vary from US$84-112 million ($23 million-$295 million range) starting from phase 2 to $319-469 million ($137 million-$1·1 billion range) starting from preclinical. This cost includes the cumulative cost of failed vaccine candidates through the research and development process. Assuming these candidates and funding were made available, progressing at least one vaccine through to the end of phase 2a for each of the 11 epidemic infectious diseases would cost a minimum of $2·8-3·7 billion ($1·2 billion-$8·4 billion range). INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides new evidence on vaccine research and development pipelines and associated costs for 11 epidemic infectious diseases, highlighting both funding needs and research and development gaps for achieving vaccine research and development preparedness targets. FUNDING: This work was partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through the Global Health and Vaccination Programme GLOBVAC.

Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

Evaluating the value proposition for improving vaccine thermostability to increase vaccine impact in low and middle-income countries.

The need to keep vaccines cold in the face of high ambient temperatures and unreliable access to electricity is a challenge that limits vaccine coverage in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Greater vaccine thermostability is generally touted as the obvious solution. Despite conventional wisdom, comprehensive analysis of the value proposition for increasing vaccine thermostability has been lacking. Further, while significant investments have been made in increasing vaccine thermostability in recent years, no vaccine products have been commercialized as a result. We analyzed the value proposition for increasing vaccine thermostability, grounding the analysis in specific vaccine use cases (e.g., use in routine immunization [RI] programs, or in campaigns) and in the broader context of cold chain technology and country level supply chain system design. The results were often surprising. For example, cold chain costs actually represent a relatively small fraction of total vaccine delivery system costs. Further, there are critical, vaccine use case-specific temporal thresholds that need to be overcome for significant benefits to be reaped from increasing vaccine thermostability. We present a number of recommendations deriving from this analysis that suggest a rational path toward unlocking the value (maximizing coverage, minimizing total system costs) of increased vaccine thermostability, including: (1) the full range of thermostability of existing vaccines should be defined and included in their labels; (2) for new vaccines, thermostability goals should be addressed up-front at the level of the target product profile; (3) improving cold chain infrastructure and supply chain system design is likely to have the largest impact on total system costs and coverage in the short term-and will influence the degree of thermostability required in the future; (4) in the long term, there remains value in monitoring the emergence of disruptive technologies that could remove the entire RI portfolio out of the cold chain.

Efficacy of the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, RotaTeq® (RV5), between doses of a 3-dose series and with less than 3 doses (incomplete regimen).

Post-hoc analyses of the Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial (REST) were conducted to determine whether the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) confers early protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) before completion of the 3-dose regimen. To evaluate the efficacy of RV5 between doses in reducing the rates of RVGE-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits in infants who ultimately received all 3 doses of RV5/placebo, events occurring from 2 weeks after the first and second doses to receipt of the subsequent dose (Analysis A) and events occurring from 2 weeks after the first and second doses to 2 weeks after the subsequent dose (Analysis B) were analyzed. In Analysis A, RV5 reduced the rates of combined hospitalizations and ED visits for G1-G4 RVGE or RVGE regardless of serotype between doses 1 and 2 by 100% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72-100%) or 82% (95% CI: 39-97%), respectively, and between doses 2 and 3, RV5 reduced the rates of combined hospitalizations and ED visits for G1-G4 RVGE or RVGE regardless of serotype by 91% (95% CI: 63-99%) or 84% (95% CI: 54-96%), respectively. Similar rate reductions were observed in Analysis B. These data suggest that RV5 provides a high level of protection between doses against hospitalizations and ED visits for RVGE starting as early as 14 days after the first dose.

Pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in developing countries: safety and health care resource utilization.

OBJECTIVE: In the international, placebo-controlled, Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial, the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine reduced the rate of rotavirus-attributable hospitalizations and emergency department visits by 95%. This study investigated the effect in Jamaica. METHODS: The vaccine effect on rates of hospitalizations and emergency department visits in Jamaica was evaluated in both modified intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. Rates of serious adverse events, including intussusception, also were compared between groups. RESULTS: A total of 1804 Jamaican infants, 6 to 12 weeks of age at entry and primarily from low/middle-income families of African heritage, received ≥1 dose. During the first year after dose 1, there were 2 and 11 hospitalizations or emergency department visits attributable to rotavirus gastroenteritis involving any serotype among 831 evaluable vaccine recipients and 809 evaluable placebo recipients, respectively (rate reduction: 82.2% [95% confidence interval: 15.1%-98.0%]). In the per-protocol analysis, all 8 G1 to G4 rotavirus-attributable events that occurred ≥2 weeks after dose 3 were in the placebo group (rate reduction: 100% [95% confidence interval: 40.9%-100%]). Of the 1802 subjects included in the safety analyses, intussusception was confirmed for 1 vaccine recipient (115 days after the third dose) and 3 placebo recipients. One vaccine recipient and 3 placebo recipients died during the follow-up period, but none of the deaths was considered to be vaccine-related. CONCLUSIONS: In this posthoc subgroup analysis, the vaccine reduced health care resource utilization attributable to rotavirus gastroenteritis, without increased risk of intussusception or other serious adverse events, among infants in a resource-limited country.

In vitro stimulation of human influenza-specific CD8+ T cells by dendritic cells pulsed with an influenza virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine.

The purpose of this in vitro study was to determine if a virus-like particle (VLP) influenza vaccine stimulated human CD8(+) T cells in a dendritic cell (DC): T cell co-culture system. VLP-pulsed DCs were co-cultured with autologous CD8(+) T cells from five donors. Functional CD8(+) T cells were detected via cell surface and intracellular cytokine staining. T cells from four of the five donors showed >or=2-fold increase over background in the % activated CD8(+) cells. These results indicate that the influenza VLP vaccine can stimulate CD8(+) T cells via DC antigen presentation, likely through the MHC-I pathway, thus broadening the immunological response induced by this promising influenza vaccine.

Robustness of the healthcare utilization results from the Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial (REST) evaluating the human-bovine (WC3) reassortant pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5).

BACKGROUND: The Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial was a placebo-controlled Phase III study that evaluated the safety and efficacy of a three-dose pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) including its effect on healthcare utilization for rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). The per-protocol (PP) analyses, which counted events occurring 14 days after dose 3 among infants without protocol violations, have already been published. This paper evaluates the consistency of the healthcare utilization results based on the modified intention to treat (MITT) analyses with the PP analyses. The MITT analyses include all infants receiving at least one dose of vaccine or placebo and follow-up begins after dose 1. The paper also explores the consistency of the results for different subgroups of the study population with different types of surveillance. METHODS: Data on healthcare utilization for acute gastroenteritis were collected via telephone interviews after administration of the first dose. Parents were either contacted every 6 weeks or every 2 weeks depending on the substudy in which they were enrolled. Those contacted every 2 weeks were also asked to complete symptom diaries. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the effect of RV5 on the rates of RVGE-associated healthcare encounters in all of the analyses. RESULTS: In the first 2 years after vaccination, RV5 reduced the combined rate of hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits 88.9% (95% CI: 84.9, 91.9) for all RVGE regardless of serotype in the MITT analysis compared with a 94.5% (95% CI: 91.2, 96.6) reduction based on the G1-G4 PP analysis. By type of surveillance, the rate reductions for the G1-G4 PP analysis were 91.0% (95% CI: 81.7, 95.5) and 95.9% (95% CI: 92.2, 97.8) among parents contacted every 2 weeks (number evaluable = 4,451) and every 6 weeks (number evaluable = 52,683) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses demonstrated that the effect of RV5 on reducing the rate of hospitalizations and ED visits based on the MITT analyses were generally consistent with the PP analyses. The rate of events for subgroups with different intensities of surveillance differed but the effect of RV5 on the relative rate reductions were consistent with the results that have already been published. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00090233.