RESUMO
This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men. Comprehensive national data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) were used to quantify TEA's total number and incidence rates. Poisson regression, exponential smoothing with Error-Trend-Seasonality, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were used to predict developments in the total number of surgeries until 2045. Overall, the number of TEAs is projected to increase continuously from 2021 to 2045. This will result in a total number of 982 (TEAs) in 2045 of mostly elderly patients above 80 years. Notably, female patients will receive TEAs 7.5 times more often than men. This is likely influenced by demographic and societal factors such as an ageing population, changes in healthcare access and utilization, and advancements in medical technology. Our projection emphasises the necessity for continuous improvements in surgical training, implant development, and rehabilitation protocols.
RESUMO
PURPOSE: Since an increase in the occurrence of native vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is expected and reliable projections are missing, it is urgent to provide a reliable forecast model and make it a part of future health care considerations. METHODS: Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to forecast total numbers and incidence rates (IR) of VO as a function of age and gender until 2040. Projections were done using autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical data from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2040. RESULTS: The IR of VO is expected to increase from 12.4 in 2019 to 21.5 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 20.9-22.1] in 2040. The highest increase is predicted in patients over 75 years of age for both men and women leading to a steep increase in absolute numbers, which is fourfold higher compared to patients younger than 75 years. While the IR per age group will not increase any further after 2035, the subsequent increase is due to a higher number of individuals aged 75 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that increasing IR of VO will seriously challenge healthcare systems, particularly due to demographic change and increasing proportions of populations turning 75 years and older. With respect to globally fast aging populations, future health care policies need to address this burden by anticipating limitations in financial and human resources and developing high-level evidence-based guidelines for prevention and interdisciplinary treatment.