Local-Scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan US county

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape. One Sentence SummaryAnalysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in King County, Washington show that diverse areas in the same metropolitan region can have different epidemic dynamics.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 VOC neutralization and novel mAb reveal protection against Omicron

To evaluate SARS-CoV-2 variants we isolated SARS-CoV-2 temporally during the pandemic starting with first appearance of virus in the Western hemisphere near Seattle, WA, USA, and isolated each known major variant class, revealing the dynamics of emergence and complete take-over of all new cases by current Omicron variants. We assessed virus neutralization in a first-ever full comparison across variants and evaluated a novel monoclonal antibody (Mab). We found that convalescence greater than 5-months provides little-to-no protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination enhances immunity against variants with the exception of Omicron BA.1, and paired testing of vaccine sera against ancestral virus compared to Omicron BA.1 shows that 3-dose vaccine regimen provides over 50-fold enhanced protection against Omicron BA.1 compared to a 2-dose regimen. We also reveal a novel Mab that effectively neutralizes Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants over clinically-approved Mabs. Our observations underscore the need for continued vaccination efforts, with innovation for vaccine and Mab improvement, for protection against variants of SARS-CoV-2. SummaryWe isolated SARS-CoV-2 temporally starting with emergence of virus in the Western hemisphere. Neutralization analyses across all variant lineages show that vaccine-boost regimen provides protection against Omicron BA.1. We reveal a Mab that protects against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants.

Anamnestic Humoral Correlates of Immunity Across SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

While immune correlates against SARS-CoV-2 are typically defined at peak immunogenicity following vaccination, immunologic responses that expand selectively during the anamnestic response following infection can provide mechanistic and detailed insights into the immune mechanisms of protection. Moreover, whether anamnestic correlates are conserved across VoCs, including the Delta and more distant Omicron variant of concern (VoC), remains unclear. To define the anamnestic correlates of immunity, across VOCs, we deeply profiled the humoral immune response in individuals recently infected with either the Delta or Omicron VoC. While limited acute N-terminal domain and RBD-specific immune expansion was observed following breakthrough, a significant immunodominant expansion of opsinophagocytic Spike-specific antibody responses focused largely on the conserved S2-domain of SARS-CoV-2 was observed 1 week after breakthrough infection. This S2-specific functional humoral response continued to evolve over 2-3 weeks following both Delta and Omicron breakthrough infection, targeting multiple VoCs and common coronaviruses. These responses were focused largely on the fusion peptide 2 and heptad repeat 1, both associated with enhanced rates of viral clearance. Taken together, our results point to a critical role of highly conserved, functional S2-specific responses in the control of SARS-CoV-2 infection, across VOCs, and thus humoral response linked to virus attenuation can guide next-generation generation vaccine boosting approaches to confer broad protection against future SARS-CoV-2 VoCs.

Imprinted antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages carry distinct spike mutations and represent an antigenic shift resulting in escape from antibodies induced by previous infection or vaccination. We show that hybrid immunity or vaccine boosters result in potent plasma neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 and that breakthrough infections, but not vaccination-only, induce neutralizing activity in the nasal mucosa. Consistent with immunological imprinting, most antibodies derived from memory B cells or plasma cells of Omicron breakthrough cases cross-react with the Wuhan-Hu-1, BA.1 and BA.2 receptor-binding domains whereas Omicron primary infections elicit B cells of narrow specificity. While most clinical antibodies have reduced neutralization of Omicron, we identified an ultrapotent pan-variant antibody, that is unaffected by any Omicron lineage spike mutations and is a strong candidate for clinical development.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

ImportanceWhile much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. ObjectiveTo estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery DesignWe jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. ResultsAnalyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevanceThe occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021? FindingsGlobally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered. MeaningThe substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.

Interactions among 17 respiratory pathogens: a cross-sectional study using clinical and community surveillance data

BackgroundCo-circulating respiratory pathogens can interfere with or promote each other, leading to important effects on disease epidemiology. Estimating the magnitude of pathogen-pathogen interactions from clinical specimens is challenging because sampling from symptomatic individuals can create biased estimates. MethodsWe conducted an observational, cross-sectional study using samples collected by the Seattle Flu Study between 11 November 2018 and 20 August 2021. Samples that tested positive via RT-qPCR for at least one of 17 potential respiratory pathogens were included in this study. Semi-quantitative cycle threshold (Ct) values were used to measure pathogen load. Differences in pathogen load between monoinfected and coinfected samples were assessed using linear regression adjusting for age, season, and recruitment channel. Results21,686 samples were positive for at least one potential pathogen. Most prevalent were rhinovirus (33{middle dot}5%), Streptococcus pneumoniae (SPn, 29{middle dot}0%), SARS-CoV-2 (13.8%) and influenza A/H1N1 (9{middle dot}6%). 140 potential pathogen pairs were included for analysis, and 56 (40%) pairs yielded significant Ct differences (p < 0.01) between monoinfected and co-infected samples. We observed no virus-virus pairs showing evidence of significant facilitating interactions, and found significant viral load decrease among 37 of 108 (34%) assessed pairs. Samples positive with SPn and a virus were consistently associated with increased SPn load. ConclusionsViral load data can be used to overcome sampling bias in studies of pathogen-pathogen interactions. When applied to respiratory pathogens, we found evidence of viral-SPn facilitation and several examples of viral-viral interference. Multipathogen surveillance is a cost-efficient data collection approach, with added clinical and epidemiological informational value over single-pathogen testing, but requires careful analysis to mitigate selection bias.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies overcome SARS-CoV-2 Omicron antigenic shift

The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant harbors 37 amino acid substitutions in the spike (S) protein, 15 of which are in the receptor-binding domain (RBD), thereby raising concerns about the effectiveness of available vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Here, we show that the Omicron RBD binds to human ACE2 with enhanced affinity relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 RBD and acquires binding to mouse ACE2. Severe reductions of plasma neutralizing activity were observed against Omicron compared to the ancestral pseudovirus for vaccinated and convalescent individuals. Most (26 out of 29) receptor-binding motif (RBM)-directed monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) lost in vitro neutralizing activity against Omicron, with only three mAbs, including the ACE2-mimicking S2K146 mAb1, retaining unaltered potency. Furthermore, a fraction of broadly neutralizing sarbecovirus mAbs recognizing antigenic sites outside the RBM, including sotrovimab2, S2X2593 and S2H974, neutralized Omicron. The magnitude of Omicron-mediated immune evasion and the acquisition of binding to mouse ACE2 mark a major SARS-CoV-2 mutational shift. Broadly neutralizing sarbecovirus mAbs recognizing epitopes conserved among SARS-CoV-2 variants and other sarbecoviruses may prove key to controlling the ongoing pandemic and future zoonotic spillovers.

Delta breakthrough infections elicit potent, broad and durable neutralizing antibody responses

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is currently responsible for most infections worldwide, including among fully vaccinated individuals. Although these latter infections are associated with milder COVID-19 disease relative to unvaccinated subjects, the specificity and durability of antibody responses elicited by Delta breakthrough cases remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that breakthrough infections induce serum binding and neutralizing antibody responses that are markedly more potent, durable and resilient to spike mutations observed in variants of concern than those observed in subjects who were infected only or received only two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. However, wee show that Delta breakthrough cases, subjects who were vaccinated after SARS-CoV-2 infection and individuals vaccinated three times (without infection) have serum neutralizing activity of comparable magnitude and breadth indicate that multiple types of exposure or increased number of exposures to SARS-CoV-2 antigen(s) enhance spike-specific antibody responses. Neutralization of the genetically divergent SARS-CoV, however, was moderate with all four cohorts examined, except after four exposures to the SARS-CoV-2 spike, underscoring the importance of developing vaccines eliciting broad sarbecovirus immunity for pandemic preparedness.

Isolation and Characterization of Cross-Neutralizing Coronavirus Antibodies from COVID-19+ Subjects

SARS-CoV-2 is one of three coronaviruses that have crossed the animal-to-human barrier in the past two decades. The development of a universal human coronavirus vaccine could prevent future pandemics. We characterized 198 antibodies isolated from four COVID19+ subjects and identified 14 SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies. One targeted the NTD, one recognized an epitope in S2 and twelve bound the RBD. Three anti-RBD neutralizing antibodies cross-neutralized SARS-CoV-1 by effectively blocking binding of both the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 RBDs to the ACE2 receptor. Using the K18-hACE transgenic mouse model, we demonstrate that the neutralization potency rather than the antibody epitope specificity regulates the in vivo protective potential of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The anti-S2 antibody also neutralized SARS-CoV-1 and all four cross-neutralizing antibodies neutralized the B.1.351 mutant strain. Thus, our study reveals that epitopes in S2 can serve as blueprints for the design of immunogens capable of eliciting cross-neutralizing coronavirus antibodies.

In silico detection of SARS-CoV-2 specific B-cell epitopes and validation in ELISA for serological diagnosis of COVID-19

Rapid generation of diagnostics is paramount to understand epidemiology and to control the spread of emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Computational methods to predict serodiagnostic epitopes that are specific for the pathogen could help accelerate the development of new diagnostics. A systematic survey of 27 SARS-CoV-2 proteins was conducted to assess whether existing B-cell epitope prediction methods, combined with comprehensive mining of sequence databases and structural data, could predict whether a particular protein would be suitable for serodiagnosis. Nine of the predictions were validated with recombinant SARS-CoV-2 proteins in the ELISA format using plasma and sera from patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and a further 11 predictions were compared to the recent literature. Results appeared to be in agreement with 12 of the predictions, in disagreement with 3, while a further 5 were deemed inconclusive. We showed that two of our top five candidates, the N-terminal fragment of the nucleoprotein and the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein, have the highest sensitivity and specificity and signal-to-noise ratio for detecting COVID-19 sera/plasma by ELISA. Mixing the two antigens together for coating ELISA plates led to a sensitivity of 94% (N=80 samples from persons with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection), and a specificity of 97.2% (N=106 control samples).

Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUNDUnusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. METHODSResidual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus, with disruption of contact rates and care-seeking informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital admissions. RESULTSDisruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16% to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3% to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in early epidemic phase. CONCLUSIONHigh-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. One sentence summaryDisruptions of school and work due to heavy snowfall in the Seattle metro area reduced the total size of respiratory virus epidemics by up to 9%.