A mass shooting at Port Arthur, Tasmania, Australia: a study of its impact on early pregnancy losses using a conception time-based methodology.

STUDY QUESTION: Does an acute calamity in a community cause early miscarriage and is this association the same for male and female fetuses? SUMMARY ANSWER: Estimated losses of 29.5% of first trimester pregnancies in the affected region could be associated with an acute calamity, with no statistically significant difference in estimated losses by fetal sex. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: There are very few studies on the impact of a calamity on early pregnancy loss and its differential effects on male and female fetuses. A decline in the human sex ratio at birth associated with the events of 9/11 in New York has been documented. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is a retrospective descriptive study of birth register data in Tasmania, Australia, from 1991 to 1997, covering the period in which the calamity occurred. The register contains data on all pregnancies that proceeded to >20 weeks gestation. The conception date was calculated by subtracting gestational age from birth date. We estimated that 40 318 pregnancies were conceived in the period 1991-1996 inclusive. These were aggregated to 4-weekly blocks classified by region and sex. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The acute calamity was at Port Arthur, Tasmania, Australia. On 28 April 1996, a gunman opened fire on visitors and staff in a tourist cafe. A very stressful 20 h period, ended with 35 people dead and 22 injured. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the association between this calamity and pregnancy loss. This loss is evidenced by a shortfall in the registration of pregnancies that were in their first trimester at the time of the calamity. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We estimated a shortfall of 29.5% or 229 registered pregnancies among those in the first trimester at the time of the calamity (P < 0.001), in the region surrounding the calamity site. There was no sex effect in this shortfall (P = 0.911). There was no corresponding shortfall in other parts of Tasmania (P = 0.349). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study is descriptive and cannot produce causal inferences. These first trimester miscarriages are estimated statistically and it is understood that gestational age is an estimate. The use of maternal residential postcodes at birth as a surrogate for geographic area or space assumes that the mother has not moved into the postcode area after the calamity and before the reporting of a birth. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The results of this study suggest that calamities bring about significant pregnancy loss affecting both sexes. The methodology presented of inferring conception date from birth date and using this for analysis, provides a more accurate assessment of first trimester pregnancy losses than raw birth data or sex ratio at birth.

Breast cancer in premenopausal women: recurrence and survival rates and relationship to hormone replacement therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To determine any association between hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) usage and breast cancer recurrence and survival rates in women who were premenopausal at the time of diagnosis of breast cancer. METHODS: The study group comprised 524 women who were diagnosed with breast cancer when they were premenopausal. Of these, 277 women reached menopause before recurrence of the disease, being lost to follow-up, or reaching the end of the study. In this group, 119 women took HRT to control menopausal symptoms. The majority took combined continuous estrogen-progestin treatment. Times from diagnosis to cancer recurrence or new breast cancer, to death from all causes, and to death from primary tumor were compared between HRT users and non-users. RESULTS: Women who used HRT after their menopause had an adjusted relative risk of recurrence or new breast cancer of 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.29-1.95) compared to that of non-users. The relative risk of death from all causes was 0.36 (95% CI, 0.11-1.16) and that of death from primary tumor was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.05-1.14). CONCLUSION: HRT use in women who were premenopausal at the diagnosis of primary invasive breast cancer is not associated with worse outcomes in terms of breast cancer recurrence or mortality.

Bone density effects of continuous estrone sulfate and varying doses of medroxyprogesterone acetate. Ogen/Provera Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To establish the optimum oral daily dose of medroxyprogesterone acetate with estrone sulfate for 2 years to maintain bone density. METHODS: A multicenter, double-blind study involved 568 postmenopausal women given estrone sulfate, 1.25 mg, and randomized to receive 2.5, 5, or 10 mg of medroxyprogesterone acetate. Bone density analyses of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were done at baseline and 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: There was a significant increase from baseline to 24 months in mean lumbar spine (4.0% +/- 0.27%) and femoral neck (3.2% +/- 0.28%) bone density, with no significant differences between the treatment groups. Factors most influencing bone density changes were baseline bone density and treatment duration. Significant increases were seen in the spine over 2 years; in the hip, those occurred in the first 12 months only. In both sites, lower baseline bone density resulted in greater increases. In the spine only, no previous hormone replacement therapy, higher body mass index, more than 2 years postmenopause, and nonsmoking resulted in greater gains. Once those covariates and center-to-center variations were corrected for, in the spine, the 10-mg group had smaller increases than the other groups. Changes were unrelated to age, parity, calcium, and alcohol intakes in either site. CONCLUSION: Daily estrone sulfate, 1.25 mg, with 2.5, 5, or 10 mg medroxyprogesterone acetate was effective for preventing bone loss in postmenopausal women.

Menopausal symptom control and side-effects on continuous estrone sulfate and three doses of medroxyprogesterone acetate. Ogen/Provera Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the optimum oral daily dose of micronized medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), given in combination with 1.25 mg of estrone sulfate for menopausal symptom control. METHODS: This multicenter, randomized, double-blind study was conducted on 568 postmenopausal women who were randomized to take estrone sulfate 1.25 mg daily with 2.5, 5.0 or 10 mg of MPA daily for 2 years. The number of vasomotor symptoms and the severity of mood swings, lethargy, vaginal dryness and loss of libido as well as side-effects were recorded in a diary. Blood pressure and weight were recorded at each 3-month visit. RESULTS: Vasomotor symptoms were reported by approximately 80% of subjects at month 1, 23% at month 3 but only 9% by month 24. Mood swings, lethargy and vaginal dryness improved rapidly in the initial 3 months of therapy. Decrease in libido had a slower response to therapy in all three treatment groups. Breast tenderness was the commonest side-effect with 22% of subjects complaining of this in the first 3 months of therapy, dropping to 13% by 6 months. Headache, depression, nausea, bloating and irritability showed a similar pattern of decline. There was no significant difference in the rate of decrease in menopausal symptoms or reported side-effects between the three treatment groups. There was a small but significant (p < 0.001) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: All three treatment regimens provide adequate symptom control. Side-effects decreased markedly after the first 3 months, with no significant difference between the treatment groups.