Model-driven decision support: A community-based meta-implementation strategy to predict population impact.

PURPOSE: Standard tools for public health decision making such as data dashboards, trial repositories, and intervention briefs may be necessary but insufficient for guiding community leaders in optimizing local public health strategy. Predictive modeling decision support tools may be the missing link that allows community level decision makers to confidently direct funding and other resources to interventions and implementation strategies that will improve upon the status quo. METHODS: We describe a community-based model-driven decision support (MDDS) approach that requires community engagement, local data, and predictive modeling tools (agent-based modeling in our case studies) to improve decision-making on implementing strategies to address complex public health problems such as overdose deaths. We refer to our approach as a meta-implementation strategy as it provides guidance to a community on what intervention combinations and their required implementation strategies are needed to achieve desired outcomes. We use standard implementation measures including the Stages of Implementation Completion to assess adoption of this meta-implementation approach. RESULTS: Using two case studies, we illustrate how MDDS can be used to support decision making related to HIV prevention and reductions in overdose deaths at the city and county level. Even when community acceptance seems high, data acquisition and diffuse responsibility for implementing specific strategies recommended by modeling are barriers to adoption. CONCLUSIONS: MDDS has the capacity to improve community decision makers use of scientific knowledge by providing projections of the impact of intervention strategies under various scenarios. Further research is necessary to assess its effectiveness and the best strategies to implement it.

Outcomes During and After Early Intervention Services for First-Episode Psychosis: Results Over 5 Years From the RAISE-ETP Site-Randomized Trial.

To examine long-term effects of early intervention services (EIS) for first-episode psychosis, we compared Heinrichs-Carpenter Quality of Life (QLS) and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) scores and inpatient hospitalization days over 5 years with data from the site-randomized RAISE-ETP trial that compared the EIS NAVIGATE (17 sites; 223 participants) and community care (CC) (17 sites; 181 participants). Inclusion criteria were: age 15-40 years; DSM-IV diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, schizophreniform disorder, brief psychotic disorder, or psychotic disorder not otherwise specified; first psychotic episode; antipsychotic medication taken for ≤6 months. NAVIGATE-randomized participants could receive NAVIGATE from their study entry date until NAVIGATE ended when the last-enrolled NAVIGATE participant completed 2 years of treatment. Assessments occurred every 6 months. 61% of participants had assessments conducted ≥2 years; 31% at 5 years. Median follow-up length was CC 30 months and NAVIGATE 38 months. Primary analyses assumed data were not-missing-at-random (NMAR); sensitivity analyses assumed data were missing-at-random (MAR). MAR analyses found no significant treatment-by-time interactions for QLS or PANSS. NMAR analyses revealed that NAVIGATE was associated with a 13.14 (95%CI:6.92,19.37) unit QLS and 7.73 (95%CI:2.98,12.47) unit PANSS better improvement and 2.53 (95%CI:0.59,4.47) fewer inpatient days than CC (all comparisons significant). QLS and PANSS effect sizes were 0.856 and 0.70. NAVIGATE opportunity length (mean 33.8 (SD = 5.1) months) was not associated (P = .72) with QLS outcome; duration of untreated psychosis did not moderate (P = .32) differential QLS outcome. While conclusions are limited by the low rate of five-year follow-up, the data support long-term benefit of NAVIGATE compared to community care.

Wingman-Connect Program increases social integration for Air Force personnel at elevated suicide risk: Social network analysis of a cluster RCT.

U.S. military suicides are increasing and disrupted relationships frequently precede them. Group-level interventions are needed that reduce future suicide vulnerability among healthy members and also ameliorate risk among those already suicidal. We examined whether our Wingman-Connect Program (W-CP) strengthened Air Force relationship networks and socially integrated at-risk members. Air Force personnel classes in training were randomized to W-CP or active control (cluster RCT), followed up at 1 and 6 months (94% and 84% retention). Data were collected in 2017-2019 and analyzed in 2020-2021. Participants were 1485 male and female Airmen in 215 technical training classes. W-CP training involved strengthening group bonds, skills for managing career and personal stressors, and diffusion of healthy norms. Active control was stress management training. Primary outcomes were social network metrics based on Airmen nominations of valued classmates after 1 month. Baseline CAT-SS >34 defined elevated suicide risk. W-CP increased social network integration, with largest impact for Airmen already at elevated suicide risk (n = 114, 7.7%). For elevated risk Airmen, W-CP improved all network integration metrics, including 53% average gain in valued connection nominations received from other Airmen (RR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.08) and eliminated isolation. No elevated risk Airmen in W-CP were isolates with no valued connections after 1-month vs. 10% among controls (P < .035). In contrast to at-risk controls, at-risk W-CP Airmen increased connections after intervention. W-CP's effect on a key indicator, ≥2 connections, was still greater 2-4 months after classes disbanded (6-months). Wingman-Connect Program built enhanced suicide protection into unit relationship networks and counteracted standard drift towards disconnection for at-risk Airmen, despite no explicit content targeting connections specifically to at-risk Airmen. Findings support a growing case for the unique contribution of group-level interventions to improve social health of broader military populations while also ameliorating risk among individuals already at elevated suicide risk.

Rapid adaptation during the COVID crisis: Challenges experienced in delivering service to those with Opioid Use Disorders.

Background: Adaptation is an accepted part of implementing evidence-based practices. COVID-19 presented a unique opportunity to examine adaptation in evolving contexts. Delivering service to people with opioid use disorder during the pandemic required significant adaptation due to revised regulations and limited service access. This report evaluated changes to addiction medication services caused by the pandemic, challenges encountered in rapidly adapting service delivery, and initial impressions of which changes might be sustainable over time. Methods: Qualitatively-evaluated structured interviews (N = 20) were conducted in late 2020 with key informants in Pinellas County (FL) to assess the pandemic's impact. Interviewees represented a cross-section of the professional groups including direct SUD/HIV service providers, and sheriff's office, Department of Health, and regional clinical program administrative staff. The interview questions examined significant changes necessitated by the pandemic, challenges encountered in adapting to this evolving context, and considerations for sustained change. Results: The most significant changes to service delivery identified were rapid adaptation to a telehealth format, and modifying service consistent with SAMHSA guidance, to allow for 'take-home' doses of methadone. Limitations imposed by access to technology, and the retraining of staff and patients to give and receive service differently were the most common themes identified as challenging adaptation efforts. Respondents saw shifts towards telehealth as most likely to being sustained. Conclusions: COVID-19 provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine adaptation in a fast-paced, dynamic, and evolving context. Adaptations identified will only be sustained through multisystem collaboration and validation. Results suggest that additional components could be added to implementation frameworks to assess rapid adaptation during unplanned events, such as access to additional resources or local decision-making that impacts service delivery. Findings will also be integrated with quantitative data to help inform local policy decisions. Plain Language Summary: Adaptation is an accepted part of implementing evidencebased practices. COVID-19 presented a unique opportunity to examine rapid adaptation necessitated within evolving contexts. Delivering services to people with opioid use disorder required significant adaptation due to changing regulations and limited access to lifesaving services. This study examined changes in service delivery due to the pandemic, challenges encountered in rapid adaptation, and initial impressions of which changes might be sustainable over time. Qualitatively-evaluated structured interviews were conducted with a cross-section of professional groups (direct substance use disorder (SUD) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) service providers, and sheriff's office, Department of Health, and clinical program administrative staff) in Pinellas County (FL). The most significant changes to service delivery were rapid adaptation to a telehealth format and increased allowance for 'takehome' doses of methadone medication. Limitations imposed by access to technology, as well as the education of and staff and patients were the most common themes identified as challenges. Respondents saw shifts towards telehealth as most likely to be sustained. COVID-19 provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine adaptation in a fast-paced, dynamic, and evolving context. Adaptations will only be sustained through multisystem collaboration and validation. Findings suggest that additional components could be added to implementation frameworks to assess rapid adaptation during unplanned events, such as access to additional resources or local decision-making that impacts service delivery.

Continuous evaluation of evolving behavioral intervention technologies.

Behavioral intervention technologies (BITs) are web-based and mobile interventions intended to support patients and consumers in changing behaviors related to health, mental health, and well-being. BITs are provided to patients and consumers in clinical care settings and commercial marketplaces, frequently with little or no evaluation. Current evaluation methods, including RCTs and implementation studies, can require years to validate an intervention. This timeline is fundamentally incompatible with the BIT environment, where technology advancement and changes in consumer expectations occur quickly, necessitating rapidly evolving interventions. However, BITs can routinely and iteratively collect data in a planned and strategic manner and generate evidence through systematic prospective analyses, thereby creating a system that can "learn." A methodologic framework, Continuous Evaluation of Evolving Behavioral Intervention Technologies (CEEBIT), is proposed that can support the evaluation of multiple BITs or evolving versions, eliminating those that demonstrate poorer outcomes, while allowing new BITs to be entered at any time. CEEBIT could be used to ensure the effectiveness of BITs provided through deployment platforms in clinical care organizations or BIT marketplaces. The features of CEEBIT are described, including criteria for the determination of inferiority, determination of BIT inclusion, methods of assigning consumers to BITs, definition of outcomes, and evaluation of the usefulness of the system. CEEBIT offers the potential to collapse initial evaluation and postmarketing surveillance, providing ongoing assurance of safety and efficacy to patients and consumers, payers, and policymakers.

Predicting program start-up using the stages of implementation measure.

Recent efforts to better understand the process of implementation have been hampered by a lack of tools available to define and measure implementation progress. The Stages of Implementation Completion (SIC) was developed as part of an implementation trial of MTFC in 53 sites, and identifies the duration of time spent on implementation activities and the proportion of activities completed. This article examines the ability of the first three stages of the SIC (Engagement, Consideration of Feasibility, Readiness Planning) to predict successful program start-up. Results suggest that completing SIC stages completely, yet relatively quickly, predicts the likelihood of successful implementation.

Intervention to strengthen emotional self-regulation in children with emerging mental health problems: proximal impact on school behavior.

A model for teaching children skills to strengthen emotional self-regulation is introduced, informed by the developmental concept of scaffolding. Adult modeling/instruction, role-play and in vivo coaching are tailored to children's level of understanding and skill to promote use of skills in real life contexts. Two-hundred twenty-six kindergarten-3rd grade children identified with elevated behavioral and social classroom problems from a population-based screening participated in a wait listed randomized trial of the Rochester Resilience Project derived from this model. In 14 lessons with school-based mentors, children were taught a hierarchical set of skills: monitoring of emotions; self control/ reducing escalation of emotions; and maintaining control and regaining equilibrium. Mentors provided classroom reinforcement of skill use. Multi-level modeling accounting for the nesting of children in schools and classrooms showed the following effects at post-intervention: reduced problems rated by teachers in behavior control, peer social skills, shy-withdrawn and off-task behaviors (ES 0.31-0.47). Peer social skills improved for girls but not for boys. Children receiving the intervention had a 46% mean decrease in disciplinary referrals and a 43% decrease in suspensions during the 4-month intervention period. Limitations and future directions to promote skill transfer are discussed.

School, family, and peer factors and their association with substance use in Hispanic adolescents.

The purpose of the present study was to examine how relationships among family, school, and peer factors relate to likelihood of substance use in Hispanic adolescents. Results indicated that only perceived peer substance use was directly related to adolescents' own substance use. A significant interaction was found between parental monitoring and peer use vis-à-vis substance use, which suggests that the relationship between parental monitoring and the adolescents' own use was significantly stronger among youth who reported that more of their friends used substances. Implications of these results for the design of substance use preventive interventions are discussed. Editors' Strategic Implications: This research is promising both in terms of the implications for targets of prevention programming and for the application of ecodevelopmental theory, which might guide similar efforts with different cultural groups.