Modelling and mapping carbon capture potential of farmed blue mussels in the Baltic Sea region.

This study applies a regional Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, enhanced to include biocalcification processes, to evaluate the carbon capture potential of farmed blue mussels (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) in the Baltic Sea. The research emphasises the long-term capture of carbon associated with shell formation, crucial for mitigating global warming effects. The model was built using a comprehensive pan-Baltic dataset that includes information on mussel growth, filtration and biodeposition rates, and nutrient content. The study also examined salinity, temperature, and chlorophyll a as key environmental factors influencing carbon capture in farmed mussels. Our findings revealed significant spatial and temporal variability in carbon dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. The tested future predictions are grounded in current scientific understanding and projections of climate change effects on the Baltic Sea. Notably, the outer Baltic Sea subbasins exhibited the highest carbon capture capacity with an average of 55 t (in the present scenario) and 65 t (under future environmental conditions) of carbon sequestrated per farm (0.25 ha) over a cultivation cycle - 17 months. Salinity was the main driver of predicted regional changes in carbon capture, while temperature and chlorophyll a had more pronounced local effects. This research advances our understanding of the role low trophic aquaculture plays in mitigating climate change. It highlights the importance of developing location-specific strategies for mussel farming that consider both local and regional environmental conditions. The results contribute to the wider discourse on sustainable aquaculture development and environmental conservation.

Distribution and co-occurrence patterns of charophytes and angiosperms in the northern Baltic Sea.

The distribution data of 11 soft substrate charophyte and angiosperm species were analyzed. Our study aimed to elucidate the co-occurrence patterns among these sympatric macrophyte species and quantify their distribution areas. The central hypothesis of this study proposed that the observed co-occurrence patterns among the studied species deviate from what would be expected by random chance. Macrophyte occurrence data was derived from an extensive field sampling database. Environmental variables available as georeferenced raster layers including topographical, hydrodynamic, geological, physical, chemical, and biological variables were used as predictor variables in the random forest models to predict the spatial distribution of the species. Permutation tests revealed statistically significant deviations from random co-occurrence patterns. The analysis demonstrated that species tended to co-occur more frequently within their taxonomic groups (i.e., within charophytes and within angiosperms) than between these groups. The most extensive distribution overlap was observed between Chara aspera Willd. and Chara canescens Loisel., while Zostera marina L. exhibited the least overlap with the other species. The mean number of co-occurring species was the highest in Chara baltica (Hartman) Bruzelius while Z. marina had the largest share of single-species occurrences. Based on the distribution models, Stuckenia pectinata (L.) Börner had the largest distribution area.

Trans-Atlantic Distribution and Introgression as Inferred from Single Nucleotide Polymorphism: Mussels Mytilus and Environmental Factors.

Large-scale climate changes influence the geographic distribution of biodiversity. Many taxa have been reported to extend or reduce their geographic range, move poleward or displace other species. However, for closely related species that can hybridize in the natural environment, displacement is not the only effect of changes of environmental variables. Another option is subtler, hidden expansion, which can be found using genetic methods only. The marine blue mussels Mytilus are known to change their geographic distribution despite being sessile animals. In addition to natural dissemination at larval phase-enhanced by intentional or accidental introductions and rafting-they can spread through hybridization and introgression with local congeners, which can create mixed populations sustaining in environmental conditions that are marginal for pure taxa. The Mytilus species have a wide distribution in coastal regions of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated the inter-regional genetic differentiation of the Mytilus species complex at 53 locations in the North Atlantic and adjacent Arctic waters and linked this genetic variability to key local environmental drivers. Of seventy-nine candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), all samples were successfully genotyped with a subset of 54 SNPs. There was a clear interregional separation of Mytilus species. However, all three Mytilus species hybridized in the contact area and created hybrid zones with mixed populations. Boosted regression trees (BRT) models showed that inter-regional variability was important in many allele models but did not prevail over variability in local environmental factors. Local environmental variables described over 40% of variability in about 30% of the allele frequencies of Mytilus spp. For the 30% of alleles, variability in their frequencies was only weakly coupled with local environmental conditions. For most studied alleles the linkages between environmental drivers and the genetic variability of Mytilus spp. were random in respect to "coding" and "non-coding" regions. An analysis of the subset of data involving functional genes only showed that two SNPs at Hsp70 and ATPase genes correlated with environmental variables. Total predictive ability of the highest performing models (r2 between 0.550 and 0.801) were for alleles that discriminated most effectively M.trossulus from M.edulis and M.galloprovincialis, whereas the best performing allele model (BM101A) did the best at discriminating M.galloprovincialis from M. edulis and M.trossulus. Among the local environmental variables, salinity, water temperature, ice cover and chlorophyll a concentration were by far the greatest predictors, but their predictive performance varied among different allele models. In most cases changes in the allele frequencies along these environmental gradients were abrupt and occurred at a very narrow range of environmental variables. In general, regions of change in allele frequencies for M.trossulus occurred at 8-11 psu, 0-10 C, 60%-70% of ice cover and 0-2 mg m-3 of chlorophyll a, M. edulis at 8-11 and 30-35 psu, 10-14 C and 60%-70% of ice cover and for M.galloprovincialis at 30-35 psu, 14-20 C.

Cleaning up seas using blue growth initiatives: Mussel farming for eutrophication control in the Baltic Sea.

Eutrophication is a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems globally with pronounced negative effects in the Baltic and other semi-enclosed estuaries and regional seas, where algal growth associated with excess nutrients causes widespread oxygen free "dead zones" and other threats to sustainability. Decades of policy initiatives to reduce external (land-based and atmospheric) nutrient loads have so far failed to control Baltic Sea eutrophication, which is compounded by significant internal release of legacy phosphorus (P) and biological nitrogen (N) fixation. Farming and harvesting of the native mussel species (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) is a promising internal measure for eutrophication control in the brackish Baltic Sea. Mussels from the more saline outer Baltic had higher N and P content than those from either the inner or central Baltic. Despite their relatively low nutrient content, harvesting farmed mussels from the central Baltic can be a cost-effective complement to land-based measures needed to reach eutrophication status targets and is an important contributor to circularity. Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal is more dependent on farm type than mussel nutrient content, suggesting the need for additional development of farm technology. Furthermore, current regulations are not sufficiently conducive to implementation of internal measures, and may constitute a bottleneck for reaching eutrophication status targets in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere.

Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years.

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966-2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments.

Environmental niche separation between native and non-native benthic invertebrate species: Case study of the northern Baltic Sea.

Knowledge and understanding of geographic distributions of species is crucial for many aspects in ecology, conservation, policy making and management. In order to reach such an understanding, it is important to know abiotic variables that impact and drive distributions of native and non-native species. We used an existing long-term macrobenthos database for species presence-absence information and biomass estimates at different environmental gradients in the northern Baltic Sea. Region specific abiotic variables (e.g. salinity, depth) were derived from previously constructed bathymetric and hydrodynamic models. Multidimensional ordination techniques were then applied to investigate potential niche space separation between all native and non-native invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea. Such an approach allowed to obtain data rich and robust estimates of the current native and non-native species distributions and outline important abiotic parameters influencing the observed pattern. The results showed clear niche space separation between native and non-native species. Non-native species were situated in an environmental space characterized by reduced salinity, high temperatures, high proportion of soft seabed and decreased depth and wave exposure whereas native species displayed an opposite pattern. Different placement of native and non-native species along the studied environmental niche space is likely to be explained by the differences in their evolutionary history, human mediated activities and geological youth of the Baltic Sea. The results of this study can provide early warnings and effectively outline coastal areas in the northern Baltic Sea that are prone to further range expansion of non-native species as climate change is expected to significantly reduce salinity and increase temperature in wide coastal areas, both supporting the disappearance of native and appearance of non-native species.

Large-scale variation in combined impacts of canopy loss and disturbance on community structure and ecosystem functioning.

Ecosystems are under pressure from multiple human disturbances whose impact may vary depending on environmental context. We experimentally evaluated variation in the separate and combined effects of the loss of a key functional group (canopy algae) and physical disturbance on rocky shore ecosystems at nine locations across Europe. Multivariate community structure was initially affected (during the first three to six months) at six locations but after 18 months, effects were apparent at only three. Loss of canopy caused increases in cover of non-canopy algae in the three locations in southern Europe and decreases in some northern locations. Measures of ecosystem functioning (community respiration, gross primary productivity, net primary productivity) were affected by loss of canopy at five of the six locations for which data were available. Short-term effects on community respiration were widespread, but effects were rare after 18 months. Functional changes corresponded with changes in community structure and/or species richness at most locations and times sampled, but no single aspect of biodiversity was an effective predictor of longer-term functional changes. Most ecosystems studied were able to compensate in functional terms for impacts caused by indiscriminate physical disturbance. The only consistent effect of disturbance was to increase cover of non-canopy species. Loss of canopy algae temporarily reduced community resistance to disturbance at only two locations and at two locations actually increased resistance. Resistance to disturbance-induced changes in gross primary productivity was reduced by loss of canopy algae at four locations. Location-specific variation in the effects of the same stressors argues for flexible frameworks for the management of marine environments. These results also highlight the need to analyse how species loss and other stressors combine and interact in different environmental contexts.

Relating remotely sensed optical variability to marine benthic biodiversity.

Biodiversity is important in maintaining ecosystem viability, and the availability of adequate biodiversity data is a prerequisite for the sustainable management of natural resources. As such, there is a clear need to map biodiversity at high spatial resolutions across large areas. Airborne and spaceborne optical remote sensing is a potential tool to provide such biodiversity data. The spectral variation hypothesis (SVH) predicts a positive correlation between spectral variability (SV) of a remotely sensed image and biodiversity. The SVH has only been tested on a few terrestrial plant communities. Our study is the first attempt to apply the SVH in the marine environment using hyperspectral imagery recorded by Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI). All coverage-based diversity measures of benthic macrophytes and invertebrates showed low but statistically significant positive correlations with SV whereas the relationship between biomass-based diversity measures and SV were weak or lacking. The observed relationships did not vary with spatial scale. SV had the highest independent effect among predictor variables in the statistical models of coverage-derived total benthic species richness and Shannon index. Thus, the relevance of SVH in marine benthic habitats was proved and this forms a prerequisite for the future use of SV in benthic biodiversity assessments.