Factors that predict survival in patients with cirrhosis considered for liver transplantation.

OBJECTIVE: To identify prognostic factors for survival at 6 and 12 months in patients evaluated for liver transplantation using Child-Pugh (CP) classification and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. METHODS: We evaluated 144 patients with cirrhosis who were candidates for liver transplantation. We excluded patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, recent liver recipients, and patients who died because of factors unrelated to liver disease. The studied variables were age and sex; prothrombin time; platelet count; albumin, cholesterol, bilirubin, creatinine, and serum sodium concentrations; CP classification and MELD score; and the presence of ascites, encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and previous variceal bleeding. Data were processed using statistical software (SPSS version 13.0). RESULTS: Of the 144 patients, 27 (18.7%) did not survive because of complications of liver disease. Univariate analysis showed the most significant factors to be sex, prothrombin time, bilirubin and albumin levels; ascites, encephalopathy, CP classification, and MELD score. At Cox regression analysis, only CP classification proved to be a valid predictor of survival in our cohort. The lowest survival according to CP classification at 6 and 12 months corresponded to stage C and to MELD scores higher than 15. CONCLUSIONS: Child-Pugh classification is an independent prognostic factor for recipient survival. Stage C in the CP classification and a MELD score higher than 15 were strongly related to worse survival. Both scores must be taken into consideration for adequate evaluation of liver transplantation for candidates.

[Predictive factors of neurological complications in the period immediately after liver transplant: experiences in the Centro de Investigaciones Médico Quirúrgicas in Cuba]. / Factores predictivos de las complicaciones neurológicas en el postrasplante hepático inmediato: experiencia en el Centro de Investigaciones Médico Quirúrgicas de Cuba.

INTRODUCTION: Liver transplant (LT) is today a first choice procedure in a group of hepatic diseases in their acute and chronic terminal stages. It is not, however, a technique that is completely free of complications and those of a neurological nature constitute between 8 47% of those reported. AIMS. The purpose of this study is to present the immediate neurological complications (NC) found in our patients, as well as to determine the predictive factors and their relation to the mortality rate. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From the medical records of 26 patients who received LT at the CIMEQ (July 1999 December 2001), we collected a group of variables related to the donor, the surgical procedure and the post operative period and associated them to the occurrence of NC while these patients were in the ICU. RESULTS: NC were found in 16 patients (61.5%), the most frequent being encephalopathy (30.8%), tremor (26.9%), and convulsions (19.2%). No relation was found between the presence of NC and prior hepatic encephalopathy, the use of a suboptimal donor, nor did it represent a significant increase in the mortality rate. There was a significant relation with LT to recipients rated as grade C on the Child Pugh classification system, the presence of intraoperative hypotension (p= 0.0164) and primary dysfunction of the liver graft (p= 0.041). CONCLUSIONS: NC represented a significant cause of morbidity in the period following a liver transplant in our series, although they had no significant repercussion on the mortality rate. Their presence is related to variables concerning the recipient, the surgical procedure itself and the immediate post operative period.