A methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps based on the COVID-19 experience.

Controlling the spreading of infectious diseases has been shown crucial in the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional contact tracing is used to detect newly infected individuals by tracing their previous contacts, and by selectively checking and isolating any individuals likely to have been infected. Digital contact tracing with the utilisation of smartphones was contrived as a technological aid to improve this manual, slow and tedious process. Nevertheless, despite the high hopes raised when smartphone-based contact tracing apps were introduced as a measure to reduce the spread of the COVID-19, their efficiency has been moderately low. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps, based on an epidemic model, which will be used not only to evaluate the deployed Apps against the COVID-19 but also to determine how they can be improved for future pandemics. Firstly, the model confirms the moderate effectiveness of the deployed digital contact tracing, confirming the fact that it could not be used as the unique measure to fight against the COVID-19, and had to be combined with additional measures. Secondly, several improvements are proposed (and evaluated) to increase the efficiency of digital control tracing to become a more useful tool in the future.

Contextual contact tracing based on stochastic compartment modeling and spatial risk assessment.

The current situation of COVID-19 highlights the paramount importance of infectious disease surveillance, which necessitates early monitoring for effective response. Policymakers are interested in data insights identifying high-risk areas as well as individuals to be quarantined, especially as the public gets back to their normal routine. We investigate both requirements by the implementation of disease outbreak modeling and exploring its induced dynamic spatial risk in form of risk assessment, along with its real-time integration back into the disease model. This paper implements a contact tracing-based stochastic compartment model as a baseline, to further modify the existing setup to include the spatial risk. This modification of each individual-level contact's intensity to be dependent on its spatial location has been termed as Contextual Contact Tracing. The results highlight that the inclusion of spatial context tends to send more individuals into quarantine which reduces the overall spread of infection. With a simulated example of an induced spatial high-risk, it is highlighted that the new spatio-SIR model can act as a tool to empower the analyst with a capability to explore disease dynamics from a spatial perspective. We conclude that the proposed spatio-SIR tool can be of great help for policymakers to know the consequences of their decision prior to their implementation.

Improving prediction of COVID-19 evolution by fusing epidemiological and mobility data.

We are witnessing the dramatic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic which, unfortunately, go beyond the impact on the health system. Until herd immunity is achieved with vaccines, the only available mechanisms for controlling the pandemic are quarantines, perimeter closures and social distancing with the aim of reducing mobility. Governments only apply these measures for a reduced period, since they involve the closure of economic activities such as tourism, cultural activities, or nightlife. The main criterion for establishing these measures and planning socioeconomic subsidies is the evolution of infections. However, the collapse of the health system and the unpredictability of human behavior, among others, make it difficult to predict this evolution in the short to medium term. This article evaluates different models for the early prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic to create a decision support system for policy-makers. We consider a wide branch of models including artificial neural networks such as LSTM and GRU and statistically based models such as autoregressive (AR) or ARIMA. Moreover, several consensus strategies to ensemble all models into one system are proposed to obtain better results in this uncertain environment. Finally, a multivariate model that includes mobility data provided by Google is proposed to better forecast trend changes in the 14-day CI. A real case study in Spain is evaluated, providing very accurate results for the prediction of 14-day CI in scenarios with and without trend changes, reaching 0.93 [Formula: see text], 4.16 RMSE and 1.08 MAE.

Three Dimensional UAV Positioning for Dynamic UAV-to-Car Communications.

In areas with limited infrastructure, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can come in handy as relays for car-to-car communications. Since UAVs are able to fully explore a three-dimensional environment while flying, communications that involve them can be affected by the irregularity of the terrains, that in turn can cause path loss by acting as obstacles. Accounting for this phenomenon, we propose a UAV positioning technique that relies on optimization algorithms to improve the support for vehicular communications. Simulation results show that the best position of the UAV can be timely determined considering the dynamic movement of the cars. Our technique takes into account the current flight altitude, the position of the cars on the ground, and the existing flight restrictions.

Evaluating How Smartphone Contact Tracing Technology Can Reduce the Spread of Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19.

Detecting and controlling the diffusion of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial to managing epidemics. One common measure taken to contain or reduce diffusion is to detect infected individuals and trace their prior contacts so as to then selectively isolate any individuals likely to have been infected. These prior contacts can be traced using mobile devices such as smartphones or smartwatches, which can continuously collect the location and contacts of their owners by using their embedded localisation and communications technologies, such as GPS, Cellular networks, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of these technologies and determines the impact of contact tracing precision on the spread and control of infectious diseases. To this end, we have created an epidemic model that we used to evaluate the efficiency and cost (number of people quarantined) of the measures to be taken, depending on the smartphone contact tracing technologies used. Our results show that in order to be effective for the COVID-19 disease, the contact tracing technology must be precise, contacts must be traced quickly, and a significant percentage of the population must use the smartphone contact tracing application. These strict requirements make smartphone-based contact tracing rather ineffective at containing the spread of the infection during the first outbreak of the virus. However, considering a second wave, where a portion of the population will have gained immunity, or in combination with some other more lenient measures, smartphone-based contact tracing could be extremely useful.

FSF: Applying Machine Learning Techniques to Data Forwarding in Socially Selfish Opportunistic Networks.

Opportunistic networks are becoming a solution to provide communication support in areas with overloaded cellular networks, and in scenarios where a fixed infrastructure is not available, as in remote and developing regions. A critical issue, which still requires a satisfactory solution, is the design of an efficient data delivery solution trading off delivery efficiency, delay, and cost. To tackle this problem, most researchers have used either the network state or node mobility as a forwarding criterion. Solutions based on social behaviour have recently been considered as a promising alternative. Following the philosophy from this new category of protocols, in this work, we present our "FriendShip and Acquaintanceship Forwarding" (FSF) protocol, a routing protocol that makes its routing decisions considering the social ties between the nodes and both the selfishness and the device resources levels of the candidate node for message relaying. When a contact opportunity arises, FSF first classifies the social ties between the message destination and the candidate to relay. Then, by using logistic functions, FSF assesses the relay node selfishness to consider those cases in which the relay node is socially selfish. To consider those cases in which the relay node does not accept receipt of the message because its device has resource constraints at that moment, FSF looks at the resource levels of the relay node. By using the ONE simulator to carry out trace-driven simulation experiments, we find that, when accounting for selfishness on routing decisions, our FSF algorithm outperforms previously proposed schemes, by increasing the delivery ratio up to 20%, with the additional advantage of introducing a lower number of forwarding events. We also find that the chosen buffer management algorithm can become a critical element to improve network performance in scenarios with selfish nodes.

Friendly-Sharing: Improving the Performance of City Sensoring through Contact-Based Messaging Applications.

Regular citizens equipped with smart devices are being increasingly used as "sensors" by Smart Cities applications. Using contacts among users, data in the form of messages is obtained and shared. Contact-based messaging applications are based on establishing a short-range communication directly between mobile devices, and on storing the messages in these devices for subsequent delivery to cloud-based services. An effective way to increase the number of messages that can be shared is to increase the contact duration. We thus introduce the Friendly-Sharing diffusion approach, where, during a contact, the users are aware of the time needed to interchange the messages stored in their buffers, and they can thus decide to wait more time in order to increase the message sharing probability. The performance of this approach is anyway closely related to the size of the buffer in the device. We therefore compare various policies either for the message selection at forwarding times and for message dropping when the buffer is full. We evaluate our proposal with a modified version of the Opportunistic Networking Environment (ONE) simulator and using real human mobility traces.