Plant-Derived, Nodule-Specific Cysteine-Rich Peptides as a Novel Source of Biopesticides for Controlling Citrus Greening Disease.

Nodule-specific cysteine-rich (NCR) peptides, encoded in the genome of the Mediterranean legume Medicago truncatula (barrelclover), are known to regulate plant-microbe interactions. A subset of computationally derived 20-mer peptide fragments from 182 NCR peptides was synthesized to identify those with activity against the unculturable vascular pathogen associated with citrus greening disease, 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (CLas). Grounded in a design of experiments framework, we evaluated the peptides in a screening pipeline involving three distinct assays: a bacterial culture assay with Liberibacter crescens, a CLas-infected excised citrus leaf assay, and an assay to evaluate effects on bacterial acquisition by the nymphal stage of hemipteran vector Diaphorina citri. A subset of the 20-mer NCR peptide fragments inhibits both CLas growth in citrus leaves and CLas acquisition by D. citri. Two peptides induced higher levels of D. citri mortality. These findings reveal 20-mer NCR peptides as a new class of plant-derived biopesticide molecules to control citrus greening disease.

Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems.

Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.

Will trees or grasses profit from changing rainfall regimes in savannas?

Increasing rainfall variability is widely expected under future climate change scenarios. How will savanna trees and grasses be affected by growing season dry spells and altered seasonality and how tightly coupled are tree-grass phenologies with rainfall? We measured tree and grass responses to growing season dry spells and dry season rainfall. We also tested whether the phenologies of 17 deciduous woody species and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index of grasses were related to rainfall between 2019 and 2023. Tree and grass growth was significantly reduced during growing season dry spells. Tree growth was strongly related to growing season soil water potentials and limited to the wet season. Grasses can rapidly recover after growing season dry spells and grass evapotranspiration was significantly related to soil water potentials in both the wet and dry seasons. Tree leaf flushing commenced before the rainfall onset date with little subsequent leaf flushing. Grasses grew when moisture became available regardless of season. Our findings suggest that increased dry spell length and frequency in the growing season may slow down tree growth in some savannas, which together with longer growing seasons may allow grasses an advantage over C3 plants that are advantaged by rising CO2 levels.

The effectiveness and acceptability of multimedia information when recruiting children and young people to trials: the TRECA meta-analysis of SWATs.

Background: The information provided to potential trial participants plays a crucial role in their decision-making. Printed participant information sheets for trials have received recurrent criticism as being too long and technical, unappealing and hard to navigate. An alternative is to provide information through multimedia (text, animations, video, audio, diagrams and photos). However, there is limited evidence on the effects of multimedia participant information on research recruitment rates, particularly in children and young people. Objectives: The study objectives were as follows: 1. to develop template multimedia information resources through participatory design, for use when recruiting children and young people to trials 2. to evaluate the multimedia information resources in a series of Studies Within A Trial, to test their effects on recruitment and retention rates, and participant decision-making, by comparing the provision of multimedia information resources instead of printed participant information sheets, and comparing the provision of multimedia information resources in addition to printed participant information sheets. Design: Two-phase study: 1. multimedia information resources development including qualitative study; user testing study; readability metrics; enhanced patient and public involvement 2. multimedia information resources' evaluation comprising Studies Within A Trial undertaken within host trials recruiting children and young people. Setting: United Kingdom trials involving patients aged under 18. Participants: Development phase: n = 120 (children and young people, parents, clinicians, trial personnel). Evaluation phase: n = 1906 (children and young people being asked to take part in trials). Interventions: Multimedia information resources (comprising text, audio, 'talking heads' video, trial-specific and trial-generic animations). Printed participant information sheets. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome: trial recruitment rate comparing multimedia information resource-only with printed participant information sheet-only provision. Secondary outcomes: trial recruitment rate comparing combined multimedia information resource and printed participant information sheet with printed participant information sheet-only provision; trial retention rate; quality of participant decision-making. Results for each trial were calculated and combined in a two-stage random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Phase 1 generated two multimedia information resource templates: (1) for children aged 6-11 years; (2) for children aged 12-18 years and parents. In the Phase 2 Studies Within A Trial the multimedia information resources improved trial recruitment, when compared to printed information alone [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 2.28; p = 0.03; I2 = 0%]. When printed participant information sheet-only provision was compared to combined multimedia information resource and printed participant information sheet provision, there was no effect on trial recruitment (OR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.53 to 1.50; I2 = 0%). There were no differences between multimedia information resource and printed participant information sheet on trial retention or participant decision-making quality. In a study within a hypothetical trial setting, multimedia information resource-only provision produced higher ratings of 'information was easy to understand' (Z = 3.03; p = 0.003) and 'I had confidence in decision-making' (Z = 2.00; p = 0.044) than printed participant information sheet-only provision. Limitations: It was not possible to include data from three Studies Within A Trial in the meta-analysis due to limited sample size, and questionnaire return rates were low, which reduced the strength of the findings. Conclusions: Use of multimedia information increased the rate of recruitment to trials involving children and young people compared to standard patient information sheets. Future work: There should be further evaluation of the effects of multimedia information on recruitment to trials involving children and young people. It would be valuable to assess any impacts of multimedia information resources on communication between trial recruiters, children and young people, and parents. Study registration: This trial is registered as TRECA ISRCTN 73136092 and Northern Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT Repository (SWAT 97). Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 14/21/21) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 24. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Clinical trials are important to National Health Service care, but it can be difficult to recruit enough people. We do not know enough about how to improve recruitment, especially when trying to recruit children and young people. People are normally told about a trial through printed information, which is often long and complex. Multimedia information (text, audio, cartoons and video) might be a better way of telling people. It is important to test whether multimedia interventions can help. One way of doing this is to run a 'Study Within A Trial' where people receive information in different ways. We created two multimedia interventions, one for parents and young people being asked for consent, and a simpler one for younger children. Some content applied to all trials, and some about the specific trial people were being asked to consider. We designed these by working closely with children and young people, parents and healthcare staff. We tested the multimedia information in six trials (although only three gave us enough data). Children, young people and their parents saw either standard printed information or our multimedia information. We then collected data on their decision-making, trial recruitment and whether people stayed in the trial. Children and young people who saw multimedia information were more likely to be recruited than those who received standard printed information. Once recruited to a trial, people given multimedia or printed information were similarly likely to remain in the trial. People's views on multimedia and printed information were also similar, but this finding could have been affected by small numbers of people returning questionnaires. Our study provides evidence that multimedia information can be used in trials with children and young people and that it increases the number of people who agree to take part, but further work is needed.

Providing multimedia information to children and young people increases recruitment to trials: pre-planned meta-analysis of SWATs.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials are often beset by problems with poor recruitment and retention. Information to support decisions on trial participation is usually provided as printed participant information sheets (PIS), which are often long, technical, and unappealing. Multimedia information (MMI), including animations and videos, may be a valuable alternative or complement to a PIS. The Trials Engagement in Children and Adolescents (TRECA) study compared MMI to PIS to investigate the effects on participant recruitment, retention, and quality of decision-making. METHODS: We undertook six SWATs (Study Within A Trial) within a series of host trials recruiting children and young people. Potential participants in the host trials were randomly allocated to receive MMI-only, PIS-only, or combined MMI + PIS. We recorded the rates of recruitment and retention (varying between 6 and 26 weeks post-randomisation) in each host trial. Potential participants approached about each host trial were asked to complete a nine-item Decision-Making Questionnaire (DMQ) to indicate their evaluation of the information and their reasons for participation/non-participation. Odds ratios were calculated and combined in a meta-analysis. RESULTS: Data from 3/6 SWATs for which it was possible were combined in a meta-analysis (n = 1758). Potential participants allocated to MMI-only were more likely to be recruited to the host trial than those allocated to PIS-only (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.05, 2.28; p = 0.03). Those allocated to combined MMI + PIS compared to PIS-only were no more likely to be recruited to the host trial (OR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.53, 1.50; p = 0.67). Providing MMI rather than PIS did not impact on DMQ scores. Once children and young people had been recruited to host trials, their trial retention rates did not differ according to intervention allocation. CONCLUSIONS: Providing MMI-only increased the trial recruitment rate compared to PIS-only but did not affect DMQ scores. Combined MMI + PIS instead of PIS had no effect on recruitment or retention. MMIs are a useful tool for trial recruitment in children and young people, and they could reduce trial recruitment periods.

Limited climatic space for alternative ecosystem states in Africa.

One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations suggesting that climate cannot reliably discriminate forest and savanna ecosystem types. Using a novel phytoclimatic transform, which estimates the ability of climate to support different types of plants, we show that climatic suitability for evergreen trees and C4 grasses are sufficient to discriminate between forest and savanna in Africa. Our findings reassert the dominant influence of climate on ecosystems and suggest that the role of feedbacks causing alternative ecosystem states is less prevalent than has been suggested.

Does digital, multimedia information increase recruitment and retention in a children's wrist fracture treatment trial, and what do people think of it? A randomised controlled Study Within A Trial (SWAT).

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate digital, multimedia information (MMI) for its effects on trial recruitment, retention, decisions about participation and acceptability by patients, compared with printed information. DESIGN: Study Within A Trial using random cluster allocation within the Forearm Fracture Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) study. SETTING: Emergency departments in 23 UK hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 1409 children aged 4-16 years attending with a torus (buckle) fracture, and their parents/guardian. Children's mean age was 9.2 years, 41.0% were female, 77.4% were ethnically White and 90.0% spoke English as a first language. INTERVENTIONS: Participants and their parents/guardian received trial information either via multimedia, including animated videos, talking head videos and text (revised for readability and age appropriateness when needed) on tablet computer (MMI group; n=681), or printed participant information sheet (PIS group; n=728). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was recruitment rate to FORCE. Secondary outcomes were Decision-Making Questionnaire (nine Likert items, analysed summatively and individually), three 'free text' questions (deriving subjective evaluations) and trial retention. RESULTS: MMI produced a small, not statistically significant increase in recruitment: 475 (69.8%) participants were recruited from the MMI group; 484 (66.5%) from the PIS group (OR=1.35; 95% CI 0.76 to 2.40, p=0.31). A total of 324 (23.0%) questionnaires were returned and analysed. There was no difference in total Decision-Making Questionnaire scores: adjusted mean difference 0.05 (95% CI -1.23 to 1.32, p=0.94). The MMI group was more likely to report the information 'very easy' to understand (89; 57.8% vs 67; 39.4%; Z=2.60, p=0.01) and identify information that was explained well (96; 62.3% vs 71; 41.8%). Almost all FORCE recruits were retained at the 6 weeks' timepoint and there was no difference in retention rate between the information groups: MMI (473; 99.6%); PIS (481; 99.4%). CONCLUSIONS: MMI did not increase recruitment or retention in the FORCE trial, but participants rated multimedia as easier to understand and were more likely to evaluate it positively. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN73136092 and ISRCTN13955395.

Engaging children, young people, parents and health professionals in interviews: Using an interactive ranking exercise within the co-design of multimedia websites.

When planning paediatric trials, it is important to consider how best to communicate with children and young people (CYP) so they understand what they are taking part in. It is also important to consider what information they need. Involving CYP as research participants leads to research that is more relevant although it can be difficult to engage CYP in qualitative research to improve trial materials due to the topic area. This paper describes how a visual ranking exercise within qualitative interviews acted as a helpful conduit to engaging discussions to inform a co-designed website with information for trial participants. 40 people participated in interviews during which the ranking exercise was used (11 CYP aged 9-18 years, 14 parents, 15 professionals). We found the ranking exercise supported participant engagement and prevented them feeling that particular responses were expected. It also enabled participants to discuss their ranking (and decisions behind this) with other participants and the researcher. Co-design interviews with CYP that use interactive exercises such as ranking are likely to elicit richer data than those relying on traditional questioning techniques.

Strain Tracking of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus', the Citrus Greening Pathogen, by High-Resolution Microbiome Analysis of Asian Citrus Psyllids.

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, is an invasive insect and a vector of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (CLas), a bacterium whose growth in Citrus species results in huanglongbing (HLB), also known as citrus greening disease. Methods to enrich and sequence CLas from D. citri often rely on biased genome amplification and nevertheless contain significant quantities of host DNA. To overcome these hurdles, we developed a simple pretreatment DNase and filtration (PDF) protocol to remove host DNA and directly sequence CLas and the complete, primarily uncultivable microbiome from D. citri adults. The PDF protocol yielded CLas abundances upward of 60% and facilitated direct measurement of CLas and endosymbiont replication rates in psyllids. The PDF protocol confirmed our lab strains derived from a progenitor Florida CLas strain and accumulated 156 genetic variants, underscoring the utility of this method for bacterial strain tracking. CLas genetic polymorphisms arising in lab-reared psyllid populations included prophage-encoding regions with key functions in CLas pathogenesis, putative antibiotic resistance loci, and a single secreted effector. These variants suggest that laboratory propagation of CLas could result in different phenotypic trajectories among laboratories and could confound CLas physiology or therapeutic design and evaluation if these differences remain undocumented. Finally, we obtained genetic signatures affiliated with Citrus nuclear and organellar genomes, entomopathogenic fungal mitochondria, and commensal bacteria from laboratory-reared and field-collected D. citri adults. Hence, the PDF protocol can directly inform agricultural management strategies related to bacterial strain tracking, insect microbiome surveillance, and antibiotic resistance screening.

Identification of genes required for gold and silver tolerance in Burkholderia cenocepacia H111 by transposon sequencing.

Members of the genus Burkholderia show remarkable abilities to adapt to a wide range of environmental conditions and is frequently isolated from soils contaminated with heavy metals. In this study, we used a transposon sequencing approach to identify 138 and 164 genes that provide a benefit for growth of the opportunistic pathogen Burkholderia cenocepacia H111 in the presence of silver and gold ions respectively. The data suggest that arginine metabolism and citrate biosynthesis are important for silver tolerance, while components of an ABC transporter (BCAL0307-BCAL0308) and de novo cysteine biosynthesis are required for tolerance to gold ions. We show that determinants that affect tolerance to both metal ions include the two-component systems BCAL0497/99 and BCAL2830/31 and genes that are involved in maintaining the integrity of the cell envelope, suggesting that membrane proteins represent important targets of silver and gold ions. Furthermore, we show that that the P-type ATPase CadA (BCAL0055), which confers tolerance to cadmium contributes to silver but not gold tolerance. Our results may be useful for improving the antibacterial effect of silver and gold ions to combat drug-resistant pathogens.

An Excised Leaf Assay to Measure Acquisition of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' by Psyllids Associated with Citrus Huanglongbing Disease.

Huanglongbing, or citrus greening disease, is the most serious disease of citrus worldwide and is associated with plant infection by 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (CLas) and other Liberibacter species. CLas is transmitted by Diaphorina citri, the Asian citrus psyllid, in a circulative propagative manner. Circulative propagative transmission is a complex process comprising at least three steps: movement of the pathogen into vector tissues, translocation and replication of the pathogen within the vector host, and pathogen inoculation of a new host by the vector. In this work, we describe an excised leaf CLas acquisition assay, which enables precise measurements of CLas acquisition by D. citri in a streamlined laboratory assay. Briefly, healthy fourth and fifth instar D. citri nymphs acquire CLas from excised CLas-positive leaves, where the insects also complete their developmental cycle. CLas titer in the resulting adults is measured using quantitative PCR and CLas-specific 16S rRNA gene primers. We observed positive correlations between CLas titer in each leaf replicate and the CLas titer that developed in the insects after acquisition (rs = 0.78; P = 0.0002). This simple assay could be used to detect CLas acquisition phenotypes and their underlying genotypes, facilitate assessment of plant factors that impact acquisition, and screen for compounds that interfere with CLas acquisition by delivering these compounds through the excised leaf.

Transferability of correlative and process-based species distribution models revisited: A response to Booth.

Here, we respond to Booth's criticism of our paper, "Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model." Booth argues that our usage of the MaxEnt model was flawed and that the conclusions of our paper are by implication flawed. We respond by clarifying that the error Booth implies we made was not made in our analysis, and we repeat statements from the original manuscript which anticipated such criticisms. In addition, we illustrate that using BIOCLIM variables in a MaxEnt analysis as recommended by Booth does not change the conclusions of the original analysis. That is, high performance in the training data domain did not equate to reliable predictions in novel data domains, and the process model transferred into novel data domains better than the correlative model did. We conclude by discussing a hidden implication of our study, namely, that process-based SDMs negate the need for BIOCLIM-type variables and therefore reframe the variable selection problem in species distribution modeling.

Post-COVID-19 Syndrome (Long Haul Syndrome): Description of a Multidisciplinary Clinic at Mayo Clinic and Characteristics of the Initial Patient Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe characteristics of a series of patients reporting prolonged symptoms after an infection with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study describes the multidisciplinary COVID-19 Activity Rehabilitation Program, established at Mayo Clinic to evaluate and treat patients with post-COVID syndrome, and reports the clinical characteristics of the first 100 patients receiving evaluation and management during the timeframe of June 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 100 patients (mean age, 45.4±14.2 years; 68% women; mean body mass index, 30.2 kg/m2; presenting a mean of 93 days after infection). Common preexisting conditions were respiratory (23%) and mental health, including depression and/or anxiety (34%). Most (75%) had not been hospitalized for COVID-19. Common presenting symptoms ware fatigue (80%), respiratory complaints (59%), and neurological complaints (59%) followed by subjective cognitive impairment, sleep disturbance, and mental health symptoms. More than one-third of patients (34%) reported difficulties in performing basic activities of daily living. Only 1 in 3 patients had returned to unrestricted work duty at the time of the analysis. For most patients, laboratory and imaging tests showed no abnormalities or were nondiagnostic despite debilitating symptoms. Most patients required physical therapy, occupational therapy, or brain rehabilitation. Face-to-face and virtual care delivery modalities were feasible. CONCLUSION: Most of the patients did not have COVID-19-related symptoms that were severe enough to require hospitalization, were younger than 65 years, and were more likely to be female, and most had no preexisting comorbidities before severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Symptoms including mood disorders, fatigue, and perceived cognitive impairment resulted in severe negative impacts on resumption of functional and occupational activities in patients experiencing prolonged effects.

Evaluating the use of multimedia information when recruiting adolescents to orthodontics research: A randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare two methods of providing information about the Bone Anchored Maxillary Protraction (BAMP) trial: standard printed information and multimedia websites, for their quality and ease of understanding, and impact on decision-making. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Orthodontic outpatient clinic in the UK. METHODS: Participants were 109 adolescents (aged 11-14 years) attending for orthodontic treatment. While awaiting treatment they were asked to imagine being recruited to the BAMP clinical trial. They were individually randomised to receive the printed or the multimedia website information (comprising text, animations and 'talking head' videos). After reading or viewing the information, they completed a 9-item Likert scale Decision-Making Questionnaire (DMQ) (score range 0-36) plus three free-text questions on their evaluation of the information. RESULTS: A total of 104 participants completed the questionnaire. Mean total DMQ scores were higher (more positive) in the website group (28.1 vs. 27.0), although the difference was small and not statistically significant (P = 0.20). Analysis of individual questionnaire items showed two statistically significant differences: the website information had higher ratings on 'easy to understand' (Z = 3.03; P = 0.003) and 'confidence in decision-making' (Z = 2.00; P = 0.044). On the three free-text questions, more positive and fewer negative comments were made about the websites than the printed information. CONCLUSION: In this hypothetical trial setting, adolescent patients found that trial information conveyed on a multimedia website was easier to understand and made them more confident in their decision about trial participation. Their subjective evaluations of the website were also more positive and less negative than about the printed information. Multimedia information has the potential to increase the quality of engagement and information exchange when seeking consent for research.

Proteomic Polyphenism in Color Morphotypes of Diaphorina citri, Insect Vector of Citrus Greening Disease.

Diaphorina citri is a vector of "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" (CLas), associated with citrus greening disease. D. citri exhibit at least two color morphotypes, blue and non-blue, the latter including gray and yellow morphs. Blue morphs have a greater capacity for long-distance flight and transmit CLas less efficiently as compared to non-blue morphs. Differences in physiology and immunity between color morphs of the insect vector may influence disease epidemiology and biological control strategies. We evaluated the effect of CLas infection on color morph and sex-specific proteomic profiles of D. citri. Immunity-associated proteins were more abundant in blue morphs as compared to non-blue morphs but were upregulated at a higher magnitude in response to CLas infection in non-blue insects. To test for differences in color morph immunity, we measured two phenotypes: (1) survival of D. citri when challenged with the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana and (2) microbial load of the surface and internal microbial communities. Non-blue color morphs showed higher mortality at four doses of B. bassinana, but no differences in microbial load were observed. Thus, color morph polyphenism is associated with two distinct proteomic immunity phenotypes in D. citri that may impact transmission of CLas and resistance to B. bassiana under some conditions.

The eco-evolutionary significance of rainfall constancy for facultative CAM photosynthesis.

A flexible use of the crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) has been hypothesised to represent an intermediate stage along a C3 to full CAM evolutionary continuum, when relative contributions of C3 vs CAM metabolism are co-determined by evolutionary history and prevailing environmental constraints. However, evidence for such eco-evolutionary interdependencies is lacking. We studied these interdependencies for the leaf-succulent genus Drosanthemum (Aizoaceae, Southern African Succulent Karoo) by testing for relationships between leaf δ13 C diagnostic for CAM dependence (i.e. contribution of C3 and CAM to net carbon gain), and climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation and their temporal variation. We further quantified the effects of shared phylogenetic ancestry on CAM dependence and its relation to climate. CAM dependence is predicted by rainfall and its temporal variation, with high predictive power of rainfall constancy (temporal entropy). The predictive power of rainfall seasonality and temperature-related variables was negligible. Evolutionary history of the tested clades significantly affected the relationship between rainfall constancy and CAM dependence. We argue that higher CAM dependence might provide an adaptive advantage in increasingly unpredictable rainfall environments when the anatomic exaptation (succulence) is already present. These observations might shed light on the evolution of full CAM.

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.

Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model.

Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool in many branches of ecology and evolution. Evaluations of the transferability of species distribution models-their ability to predict the distribution of species in independent data domains-are, however, rare. In this study, we contrast the transferability of a process-based and a correlative species distribution model. Our case study uses 664 Australian eucalypt and acacia species. We estimate models for these species using data from their native Australia and then assess whether these models can predict the adventive range of these species. We find that the correlative model-MaxEnt-has a superior ability to describe the data in the training data domain (Australia) and that the process-based model-TTR-SDM-has a superior ability to predict the distribution of the study species outside of Australia. The implication of this analysis, that process-based models may be more appropriate than correlative models when making projections outside of the domain of the training data, needs to be tested in other case studies.

Diversification in evolutionary arenas-Assessment and synthesis.

Understanding how and why rates of evolutionary diversification vary is a key issue in evolutionary biology, ecology, and biogeography. Evolutionary rates are the net result of interacting processes summarized under concepts such as adaptive radiation and evolutionary stasis. Here, we review the central concepts in the evolutionary diversification literature and synthesize these into a simple, general framework for studying rates of diversification and quantifying their underlying dynamics, which can be applied across clades and regions, and across spatial and temporal scales. Our framework describes the diversification rate (d) as a function of the abiotic environment (a), the biotic environment (b), and clade-specific phenotypes or traits (c); thus, d ~ a,b,c. We refer to the four components (a-d) and their interactions collectively as the "Evolutionary Arena." We outline analytical approaches to this framework and present a case study on conifers, for which we parameterize the general model. We also discuss three conceptual examples: the Lupinus radiation in the Andes in the context of emerging ecological opportunity and fluctuating connectivity due to climatic oscillations; oceanic island radiations in the context of island formation and erosion; and biotically driven radiations of the Mediterranean orchid genus Ophrys. The results of the conifer case study are consistent with the long-standing scenario that low competition and high rates of niche evolution promote diversification. The conceptual examples illustrate how using the synthetic Evolutionary Arena framework helps to identify and structure future directions for research on evolutionary radiations. In this way, the Evolutionary Arena framework promotes a more general understanding of variation in evolutionary rates by making quantitative results comparable between case studies, thereby allowing new syntheses of evolutionary and ecological processes to emerge.

Children and young people's concerns and needs relating to their use of health technology to self-manage long-term conditions: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The use of patient-facing health technologies to manage long-term conditions is increasing; however, children and young people may have particular concerns or needs before deciding to use different health technologies. AIMS: To identify children and young people's reported concerns or needs in relation to using health technologies to self-manage long-term conditions. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted. We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO and CINAHL in February 2019. Searches were limited to papers published between January 2008 and February 2019. We included any health technology used to manage long-term conditions. A thematic synthesis of the data from the included studies was undertaken. We engaged children with long-term conditions (and parents) to support review design, interpretation of findings and development of recommendations. RESULTS: Thirty-eight journal articles were included, describing concerns or needs expressed by n=970 children and/or young people aged 5-18 years. Most included studies were undertaken in high-income countries with children aged 11 years and older. Studies examined concerns with mobile applications (n=14), internet (n=9), social media (n=3), interactive online treatment programmes (n=3), telehealth (n=1), devices (n=3) or a combination (n=5). Children and young people's main concerns were labelling and identity; accessibility; privacy and reliability; and trustworthiness of information. DISCUSSION: This review highlights important concerns that children and young people may have before using technology to self-manage their long-term condition. In future, research should involve children and young people throughout the development of technology, from identifying their unmet needs through to design and evaluation of interventions.