It's a bear market: evolutionary and ecological effects of predation on two wild sockeye salmon populations.

Predation can affect both phenotypic variation and population productivity in the wild, but quantifying evolutionary and demographic effects of predation in natural environments is challenging. The aim of this study was to estimate selection differentials and coefficients associated with brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation in wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations spawning in pristine habitat that is often subject to intense predation pressure. Using reconstructed genetic pedigrees, individual reproductive success (RS) was estimated in two sockeye salmon populations for two consecutive brood years with very different predation intensities across brood years. Phenotypic data on individual adult body length, body depth, stream entry timing and reproductive lifespan were used to calculate selection coefficients based on RS, and genetic variance components were estimated using animal models. Bears consistently killed larger and more recently arrived adults, although selection differentials were small. In both populations, mean RS was higher in the brood year experiencing lower predation intensity. Selection coefficients were similar across brood years with different levels of predation, often indicating stabilizing selection on reproductive lifespan as well as directional selection for longer reproductive lifespan. Despite these selection pressures, genetic covariation of morphology, phenology and lifespan appears to have maintained variation in spawner body size and stream entry timing in both populations. Our results therefore suggest considerable demographic but limited evolutionary effects of bear predation in the two study populations.

Infection by the cestode parasite Schistocephalus sp. and effects on diet, body condition and survival of sculpins Cottus aleuticus and Cottus cognatus.

Sampling in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, U.S.A. revealed that a greater proportion of coastrange sculpins Cottus aleuticus were infected by the cestode Schistocephalus solidus than slimy sculpins Cottus cognatus (52 v. 23%), and infected C. aleuticus contained more cestodes than did C. cognatus (2·1 v. 1·3 per fish). Consumption of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka eggs (the primary diet item) was lower in fishes with cestodes, and a model based on cestode prevalence and age composition estimated higher rates of infection and parasite-associated mortality in C. aleuticus compared with C. cognatus.

Conserving large populations of lions - the argument for fences has holes.

Packer et al. reported that fenced lion populations attain densities closer to carrying capacity than unfenced populations. However, fenced populations are often maintained above carrying capacity, and most are small. Many more lions are conserved per dollar invested in unfenced ecosystems, which avoid the ecological and economic costs of fencing.

Fine-scale differentiation between sockeye salmon ecotypes and the effect of phenotype on straying.

A long-standing goal of evolutionary biology is to understand the factors that drive population divergence, local adaptation and speciation. In particular, the effect of selection against dispersers on gene flow and local adaptation has attracted interest, although empirical data on phenotypic characters of dispersers are scarce. Here, we used genetic and phenotypic data from beach and creek ecotypes of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Little Togiak Lake, Alaska, to examine the relationship between gene flow and phenotypic and genetic differentiation. Despite close geographic proximity, both genetic and phenotypic differentiation between beach and creek fish was high and significant in all sampling years, with beach males having deeper bodies than creek males. Strays, or fish that did not return to their natal sites to spawn as determined by genetic assignment, tended to morphologically resemble the fish in the population that they joined. Male strays from beaches to creeks were shallower bodied than other beach fish, and male strays from creeks to beaches were deeper bodied than other creek males. Our results indicated that selection against strays may be moderated by the strays' phenotypic similarity to individuals in the recipient populations, but comparison of assignment results with long-term estimates of gene flow from F(ST) still suggested that strays had low reproductive success.

Economics of overexploitation revisited.

About 25% of the world's fisheries are depleted such that their current biomass is lower than the level that would maximize the sustained yield (MSY). By using methods not previously applied in the fisheries conservation context, we show in four disparate fisheries (including the long-lived and slow-growing orange roughy) that the dynamic maximum economic yield (MEY), the biomass that produces the largest discounted economic profits from fishing, exceeds MSY. Thus, although it is theoretically possible that maximizing discounted economic profits may cause stock depletions, our results show there is a win-win: In many fisheries at reasonable discount rates and at current prices and costs, larger fish stocks increase economic profits. An MEY target that exceeds MSY and transfers from higher, future profits to compensate fishers for the transition costs of stock rebuilding would help overcome a key cause of fisheries overexploitation, industry opposition to lower harvests.

On inference in ecology and evolutionary biology: the problem of multiple causes.

If one investigates a process that has several causes but assumes that it has only one cause, one risks ruling out important causal factors. Three mechanisms account for this mistake: either the significance of the single cause under test is masked by noise contributed by the unsuspected and uncontrolled factors, or the process appears only when two or more causes interact, or the process appears when there are present any of a number of sufficient causes which are not mutually exclusive. In ecology and evolutionary biology, experiments usually test single factor hypotheses, and many scientists apparently believe that hypotheses incorporating several factors are so much more difficult to test that to do so would not be practical. We discuss several areas in ecology and evolutionary biology in which the presupposition of simple causation has apparently impeded progress. We also examine a more mature field, the study of atherosclerosis, in which single factor studies did significantly delay progress towards understanding what now appears to be a multifactor process. The problem has three solutions: either factorial experiments, dynamic models that make quantitative predictions, response-surface methods, or all three. In choosing a definition for 'cause', we make a presupposition that profoundly influences subsequent observations and experimental designs. Alternative definitions of causation should be considered as contributing to potential cures for research problems.

Energetic constraints on clutch size and time of breeding in temperate zone birds.

A model for the energy budget of a breeding pair of Great Tits is synthesized from published data. The model is used to investigate the relationship between temperature, clutch size, onset of laying, and male feeding on breeding success. Two periods of energetic stress are found, one at the end of the incubation period which is independent of the clutch size, and one at the end of the fledging period which does depend upon the clutch size. This energetic bottleneck theory is easily testable and is in agreement with existing data. The model also provides a consistent explanation of the effects of reduced male feeding, and changes in clutch size and nest box insulation on breeding success.

Anatomical substages of stage III Hodgkin's disease: implications for staging, therapy, and experimental design.

Twenty-three patients with pathologic stage III Hodgkin's disease were classified with respect to the presence or absence of symptoms (III-A, III-B), the presence or absence of splenic involvement (IIIS+, IIIS-) and anatomic substage--the extent of disease within the abdomen (III1, III2). Stage III1 disease included disease limited to the upper abdomen, i.e., spleen, splenic node, celiac node, and/or portal node. All other more extensive disease was classified as stage III2. Symptoms and splenic involvement did not predict either disease-free survival or survival. However, 5 year actuarial disease-free survival was significantly better in III1 patients as compared to III2 patients (77% vs. 13%, p less than .001). Eight of nine stage III2 patients receiving total nodal radiotherapy alone relapsed. When considered along the previous studies of anatomic substage, these findings suggest that patients in stage III1 and III2 should receive different therapeutic approaches. Analysis of therapeutic results in stage III patients must consider anatomic substage.