Comparison of Australian Football League Women's athletes match day energy and nutrient intake to recommendations.

AIMS: This cross-sectional observational study quantified Australian Football League Women's athletes' match volume, and compared match-day dietary intakes against recommendations. METHODS: Self-report, direct observation, and fluid measurements determined dietary intake (n = 17, 25 ± 4.5 years, 22.8 ± 1.8 kg/m2) on five home match days (early or late starting). Global positioning system software captured match volume. Linear mixed effects models evaluated differences in early versus late match volume and nutrient intakes. Data are presented as mean ± standard deviation. RESULTS: Athletes covered 6712 ± 622 m during matches, with similar numbers of very high-intensity running efforts over equal distances in early and late matches (early vs. late efforts [no.]: 8.5 ± 4.9 vs. 9.5 ± 5.5; distance [m]: 203 ± 127 vs. 212 ± 113). Across all match days, 71% (n = 12) of athletes met their predicted daily energy requirements. However, 82% (n = 14) failed to meet minimum daily carbohydrate recommendations; intake was lower on early compared with late match days (4.7 g/day vs. 5.4 g/kg/day, p = 0.027). On average, no athletes met carbohydrate recommendations in the 2 h prior to a match and only 24% (n = 4) met recommendations during matches. All athletes met post-match carbohydrate and protein requirements. CONCLUSION: Athletes cover large distances during games with frequent bursts of high-intensity running. However, they do not adjust their intake to meet the energy demands of competition, with inadequate fuelling prior to and during matches. These findings emphasise the need for greater athlete education and dietary support to maximise strategic fuelling to optimise athletic performance.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.

Effects of energy-restricted diets with or without nuts on weight, body composition and glycaemic control in adults: a scoping review.

Energy-restricted (ER) diets promote weight loss and improve body composition and glycaemic control. Nut consumption also improves these parameters. However, less is known about the combined benefit of these two strategies. This scoping review implemented a systematic search of Medline, Embase and Scopus to identify randomised controlled trials evaluating the effect of ER diets with or without nuts on body mass, body composition and glycaemic control in adults. After reviewing titles and abstracts, twenty-nine full-text articles were screened, resulting in seven studies reported in eight papers that met the inclusion criteria. Energy restriction was achieved by prescribing a set energy target or reducing intake by 1000-4200 kJ from daily energy requirements. Interventions ranged from 4 to 52 weeks in duration and contained 42-84 g/d of almonds, peanuts, pistachios or walnuts. While all studies reported that energy restriction resulted in significant weight loss, the addition of nuts to ER diets demonstrated significantly greater weight loss in only approximately half of the included studies (4/7 studies). There was limited evidence to support additional benefits from nuts for body composition measures or glycaemic control. Although improvements in weight loss and glycaemia were not consistent when nuts were included in ER diets, no study revealed an adverse effect of nut consumption on health outcomes. Future studies could explore the effect of consuming different types and amounts of nuts, combined with various levels of energy restriction on weight, body composition and glycaemic control.

Study protocol for a 15-week randomised controlled trial assessing the independent effects of high-cholesterol and high-saturated fat diets on LDL cholesterol.

INTRODUCTION: Previous research has associated high dietary cholesterol intake with raised low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and thus increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Emerging research suggests that it is saturated fat, not dietary cholesterol, associated with increased CVD risk. Despite being high in cholesterol, eggs, low in saturated fat, are not adversely associated with blood lipids or CVD risk. This paper describes a randomised controlled counter-balanced, cross-over trial assessing the effects of a high-cholesterol/low-saturated fat (egg) diet and a low-cholesterol/high-saturated fat diet (egg free) on blood lipids and lipoproteins, while accounting for physical activity levels which can also influence these parameters. The primary aim is to demonstrate that high cholesterol intake (from eggs) within a healthy, low-saturated fat diet does not adversely affect blood lipid levels and lipoprotein profiles. Instead, we propose that adverse effects on these parameters are mediated by saturated fat intake. The secondary aim is to explore relationships between changes in blood lutein and zeaxanthin concentrations and alterations in physical activity, examining whether changes in physical activity mediate effects on blood lipids and lipoproteins. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Fifty-two adults aged 18-60 years with LDL-C less than 3.5 mmol/L will be randomly allocated to three isocaloric diets for 5 weeks each: a high-cholesterol (600 mg)/low-saturated fat (6%) (egg) diet, a low-cholesterol (300 mg)/high-saturated fat (12%) (egg free) diet and a control diet that is high in both cholesterol (600 mg) and saturated fat (12%). Lipid and lipoprotein levels, lipoprotein size and concentrations, blood pressure, blood glucose, physical activity levels, and plasma lutein and zeaxanthin concentrations will be measured. Treatment effects will be analysed using linear mixed effects models. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained from the University of South Australia Human Research Ethics Committee no. 204 327. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and national and international presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05267522.

Characterising concurrent pain experience and dietary patterns in people with chronic musculoskeletal pain: a feasibility study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Nutrition-related factors linked to pain chronicity and disability include weight status and dietary behaviours. Dietary patterns associated with concurrent pain episodes, however, remain poorly characterised. This paper outlines the protocol for a feasibility study that aims to characterise pain-related dietary and lifestyle behaviours in people experiencing chronic musculoskeletal pain. METHODS: The study will recruit participants who experience musculoskeletal pain on 5 or more days of the week for at least 3 months. Participants will attend two in-person clinic visits where physical measurements and a series of pain and lifestyle questionnaires will be completed. Visits will be conducted pre and post a 2-week self-monitoring period where participants will self-report concurrent diet, sleep, mood, and pain on four days and will wear a wrist-worn activity monitor (GENEActiv). Key feasibility metrics will evaluate participant recruitment, enrolment and retention rates, and compliance with the study data collection protocol. DISCUSSION: There remains a lack of evidence behind dietary advice as an adjunct pain management tool. Upon completion of the protocol, feasibility outcomes will identify challenges to guide the design and delivery of a dietary intervention for chronic musculoskeletal pain.

Seasonal health tracking of Australian Football League Women's athletes.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating the dietary intake of Australian Football League Women's (AFLW) athletes are few and limited to the preseason. This prospective observational study aims to evaluate seasonal changes in dietary intake and health parameters of professional AFLW athletes. METHODOLOGY: Dietary intake (3-day weighed food records), body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis, skinfolds), physical performance (global positioning system, GPS), and iron status (fasted blood sample) were assessed in 19 athletes (24 ± 5 years, 170 ± 6 cm, 22.8 ± 2.1 kg/m2) at three timepoints: start of preseason, end of preseason, and end of competition season. Sociodemographic information, sports nutrition knowledge (SNK), and risk of low energy availability (LEA) questionnaires were completed at the start of preseason. RESULTS: Mean daily energy and carbohydrate (CHO) intakes were lower than recommendations across all seasons (p < 0.05). Mean daily CHO intake was highest at start of preseason (3.6 g/kg/day), decreased during preseason (3.1 g/day) and remained low during competition (3.2 g/day); >80% of players did not meet minimum recommendations at each timepoint (all, p < 0.05). The sum of seven skinfolds and fat mass (%) decreased during preseason (both, p < 0.05). Serum iron fell within recommended ranges for 95% of athletes at all timepoints. The total distance (m) and number of Very High Intensity (>21 km/h) efforts significantly increased across preseason and decreased during competition (all, p < 0.05). Nutrition knowledge was 'poor', and 42% of athletes were at risk of LEA. CONCLUSIONS: AFLW athletes do not meet energy and carbohydrate requirements across the preseason and competition seasons, which may impact health and performance if deficits are sustained.

Postoperative Glycemic Response in High-Risk Type II Diabetics Receiving Below-Knee Amputation: Does Intraoperative Dexamethasone Make an Impact?

Despite known risks of hyperglycemia on postoperative complications, the influence of intraoperative dexamethasone on blood glucose has yet to be evaluated within the diabetic limb salvage population. This study aimed to assess the effect of intraoperative dexamethasone on postoperative blood glucose in diabetic patients undergoing atraumatic major lower extremity amputations. A single-center retrospective review of diabetic patients undergoing below-knee amputation between January 2017 and December 2022 was performed. Blood glucose levels for the 5 days before and after amputation were recorded and compared with the primary endpoints of postoperative hyperglycemia (>200 mg/dL) and glucose variability (>200 mg/dL). Cohorts were divided by patients who did and did not receive intraoperative administration of dexamethasone. Three hundred eighty-one were screened for eligibility with 180 patients included. Of these, 50 patients received dexamethasone intraoperatively (38.5%). Average pre- and postoperative blood glucose, rate of pre- and postoperative hyperglycemia, perioperative glucose variability, and postoperative dehiscence and infection were comparable between cohorts. On multivariate analysis, intraoperative administration of dexamethasone was not associated with postoperative hyperglycemia (p = .104) or perioperative blood glucose variability > 200 mg/dL (p = .334). Perioperative blood glucose variability > 200 mg/dL was associated with higher odds of surgical site infection (SSI) (odds ratio 5.12, p = .003). Administration of intravenous dexamethasone to diabetic patients undergoing below-knee amputation is not associated with postoperative hyperglycemia or complications. This study confirms previous findings that high glucose is a predictor of SSI. Concerted effort by a multidisciplinary team to attain tight glycemic control is critical to optimizing healing.

Primary Targeted Muscle Reinnervation in Above-Knee Amputations in Patients with Unsalvageable Limbs from Limb-Threatening Ischemia or Infection.

BACKGROUND: Amputees frequently suffer from chronic pain in both their residual limbs (RLP) and phantom limbs (PLP) following their amputation. Targeted muscle reinnervation (TMR) is a nerve transfer technique that has been demonstrated to improve pain secondarily and at time of amputation. The goal of this study is to report on the efficacy of primary TMR at time of above-knee level amputations in the setting of limb-threatening ischemia or infection. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of a single-surgeon experience with TMR in patients undergoing through- or above-knee level amputations from January 2018 to June 2021. Patient charts were reviewed for the comorbidities in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Postoperative notes were assayed for presence and absence of RLP and PLP, overall pain severity, chronic narcotic use, ambulatory status, and complications. A control group of patients undergoing lower limb amputation who did not receive TMR from January 2014 to December 2017 was used for comparison. RESULTS: Forty-one patients with through- or above-knee level amputations and primary TMR were included in this study. The tibial and common peroneal nerves were transferred in all cases to motor branches to the gastrocnemius, semimembranosus, semitendinosus, and biceps femoris. Fifty-eight patients with through- or above-knee level amputations without TMR were included for comparison. The TMR group had significantly less overall pain (41.5 vs. 67.2%, p = 0.01), RLP (26.8 vs. 44.8%, p = 0.04), and PLP (19.5 vs. 43.1%, p = 0.02). There were no significant differences in complication rates. CONCLUSION: TMR can safely and effectively be performed at time of a through- and above-knee level amputation and improves pain outcomes.

To Mesh or Not to Mesh: What Is the Ideal Meshing Ratio for Split Thickness Skin Grafting of the Lower Extremity?

Split-thickness skin grafts can provide effective autologous wound closure in patients with dysvascular comorbidities. Meshing the graft allows for reduced donor site morbidity and expanded coverage. This study directly compares outcomes across varying meshing ratios used to treat chronic lower extremity wounds. Patients who received split-thickness skin grafts to their lower extremity for chronic ulcers from December 2014 to December 2019 at a single center were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified by meshing ratios: nonmeshed (including pie crusting), 1.5:1, and 3:1. The primary outcome was clinical "healing" as determined by surgeon discretion at 30 days, 60 days, and the latest follow-up. Secondary outcomes included postoperative complications, graft loss, ulcer recurrence, progression to amputation, and mortality. A total of 321 patients were identified. Wound sizes and location differed significantly, with 3:1 meshing applied to the largest wounds (187.8 ± 157.6 cm2; 1.5:1 meshed, 110.4 ± 103.9 cm2; nonmeshed 38.7 ± 55.5 cm2; p < .0001) mostly of the lower leg (n = 18, 75%; 1.5:1 meshed, n = 23, 43.4%; nonmeshed n = 62, 25.7%; p < .0001). Meshed grafts displayed a significantly higher proportion of healing at 30 and 60 days, but no differences persisted by the final follow-up (16.5 ± 20.5 months). Longitudinally, nonmeshed STSG was associated with most graft loss (46, 19.1%; p = .011) and ulcer recurrence (44, 18.3%; p = .011). Of the 3 meshing ratios, 3:1 exhibited the lowest rates of complications. Our results suggest that 3:1 meshing is a safe option for coverage of large lower extremity wounds to minimize donor site morbidity.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Effect of Pigmented Rice Consumption on Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Dietary patterns that include polyphenols may help manage cardiometabolic risk factors. Pigmented rice contains phenolic acids and flavonoids that contribute to its antioxidant properties. This review examined the effect of polyphenol-containing pigmented rice on antioxidant status, lipid profile, glucose/insulin, blood pressure, and weight among adults. Four electronic databases including PubMed, ProQuest, EBSCOhost, and Google Scholar were systematically searched for relevant articles published in English since 2000, using PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO registration: CRD42022358132). Two-staged screening resulted in the inclusion of seventeen (seven acute, ten chronic) randomized controlled trials. A random effects model was conducted on cardiometabolic outcomes reported in at least three studies. RECENT FINDINGS: Acute intake increased plasma antioxidant activity and lowered postprandial glucose and insulin levels. Chronic consumption was associated with reductions in fasting glucose (WMD: -1.60 mg/dL; 95% CI:-3.05,-0.14, p = 0.03, k = 5, n = 349), weight (WMD: -0.23 kg, 95% CI: -0.44, -0.02, p = 0.03, k = 3, n = 182), and diastolic blood pressure (WMD: -1.39 mmHg, 95% CI: -2.21, -0.56, p = 0.001, k = 3, n = 185). No effect on total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure was found. The consumption of pigmented rice may improve cardiometabolic risk factors. However, the small number of studies and differences in study design, including participants' health status, form of rice utilized, and duration of intervention, support the need for more high-quality trials to further investigate these findings.

Almonds vs. carbohydrate snacks in an energy-restricted diet: Weight and cardiometabolic outcomes from a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated weight and cardiometabolic outcomes after a 3-month energy-restricted diet (-30%) containing almonds (almond-enriched diet [AED]) or containing carbohydrate-rich snacks (nut-free control diet [NFD]) (Phase 1), followed by 6 months of weight maintenance (Phase 2). METHODS: Participants (25-65 years old) with overweight or obesity (BMI 27.5-34.9 kg/m2 ) were randomly allocated to AED (n = 68) or NFD (n = 72). RESULTS: Both groups lost weight during Phase 1 (p < 0.001) (mean [SE], -7.0 [0.5] kg AED vs. -7.0 [0.5] kg NFD, p = 0.858) and Phase 2 (p = 0.009) (-1.1 [0.5] kg AED vs. -1.3 [0.6] NFD, p = 0.756), with improvements in percentage lean mass after Phase 2 (4.8% [0.3%], p < 0.001). Reductions occurred in fasting glucose (-0.2 [0.07] mmol/L, p = 0.003), insulin (-8.1 [4.0] pmol/L, p = 0.036), blood pressure (-4.9 [0.8] mm Hg systolic, -5.0 [0.5] mm Hg diastolic, p < 0.001), total cholesterol (-0.3 [0.1] mmol/L), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) (-0.2 [0.1] mmol/L), very low-density lipoprotein (-0.1 [0.03] mmol/L), and triglycerides (-0.3 [0.06] mmol/L) (all p < 0.001), and high-density lipoprotein increased (0.1 [0.02] mmol/L, p = 0.011) by the end of Phase 2 in both groups. There were group by time interactions for lipoprotein particle concentrations: very small triglyceride-rich (-31.0 [7.7] nmol/L AED vs. -4.8 [7.9] nmol/L NFD, p = 0.007), small LDL (-109.3 [40.5] nmol/L AED vs. -20.7 [41.6] nmol/L NFD, p = 0.017), and medium LDL (-24.4 [43.4] nmol/L AED vs. -130.5 [44.4] nmol/L NFD, p = 0.045). CONCLUSIONS: An energy-restricted AED resulted in weight loss and weight loss maintenance comparable to an energy-restricted NFD, and both diets supported cardiometabolic health. The AED resulted in greater improvements in some lipoprotein subfractions, which may enhance reductions in cardiovascular risk.

Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, like that of many other pathogens, is governed by heterogeneity. "Superspreading," or "over-dispersion," is an important factor in transmission, yet it is hard to quantify. Estimates from contact tracing data are prone to potential biases due to the increased likelihood of detecting large clusters of cases, and may reflect variation in contact behavior more than biological heterogeneity. In contrast, the average number of secondary infections per contact is routinely estimated from household surveys, and these studies can minimize biases by testing all members of a household. However, the models used to analyze household transmission data typically assume that infectiousness and susceptibility are the same for all individuals or vary only with predetermined traits such as age. Here we develop and apply a combined forward simulation and inference method to quantify the degree of inter-individual variation in both infectiousness and susceptibility from observations of the distribution of infections in household surveys. First, analyzing simulated data, we show our method can reliably ascertain the presence, type, and amount of these heterogeneities given data from a sufficiently large sample of households. We then analyze a collection of household studies of COVID-19 from diverse settings around the world, and find strong evidence for large heterogeneity in both the infectiousness and susceptibility of individuals. Our results also provide a framework to improve the design of studies to evaluate household interventions in the presence of realistic heterogeneity between individuals.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

A retrospective analysis of pain and opioid usage in head and neck free flap reconstruction.

Objectives: Investigate opioid usage and postoperative pain in patients undergoing head and neck free flap surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of 100 consecutive patients undergoing head and neck free flap reconstruction at two academic centers was performed. Data captured included demographics, postoperative inpatient pain, pain at postoperative visits, morphine equivalent doses (MEDs) administration, medication history, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using regression models, χ 2 tests, and student's t-tests. Results: Seventy-three percent of patients were discharged with opioid medication, with over half (53.4%) continuing to take opioids at their second postoperative visit, and over one-third (34.2%) continuing to take them around 4-month postoperatively. One out of every five (20.3%) opioid-naïve patients chronically took opioids postoperatively. There was a poor association between inpatient postoperative pain scores and daily MEDs administered (R 2 = 0.13, 0.17, and 0.22 in postoperative Days 3, 5, and 7, respectively). Neither preoperative radiotherapy nor postoperative complications were associated with an increase in opioid usage. Conclusions: For patients undergoing head and neck free flap operations, opioid medications are commonly used for postoperative analgesia. This practice may increase the chance an opioid-naïve patient uses opioids chronically. We found a poor association between MEDs administered and patient-reported pain scores, which suggests that standardized protocols aimed at optimizing analgesia while reducing opioid administration may be warranted. Level of Evidence: 3 (Retrospective cohort study).

Eggs and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: An Update of Recent Evidence.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review summarizes recent evidence published since a previous review in 2018 on the association between egg consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, CVD incidence, and CVD risk factors. RECENT FINDINGS: No recent randomized controlled trials were identified. Evidence from observational studies is mixed, with studies reporting either an increased risk or no association of highest egg consumption with CVD mortality, and a similar spread of increased risk, decreased risk, or no association between egg intake and total CVD incidence. Most studies reported a reduced risk or no association between egg consumption and CVD risk factors. Included studies reported low and high egg intake as between 0 and 1.9 eggs/week and 2 and ≥14 eggs/week, respectively. Ethnicity may influence the risk of CVD with egg consumption, likely due to differences in how eggs are consumed in the diet rather than eggs themselves. Recent findings are inconsistent regarding the possible relationship between egg consumption and CVD mortality and morbidity. Dietary guidance should focus on improving the overall quality of the diet to promote cardiovascular health.

Distinct early cellular kinetics in participants protected against colonization upon Bordetella pertussis challenge.

BACKGROUNDTo date, only limited data are available on the mechanisms of protection against colonization with Bordetella pertussis in humans.METHODSIn this study, the cellular responses to B. pertussis challenge were monitored longitudinally using high-dimensional EuroFlow-based flow cytometry, allowing quantitative detection of more than 250 different immune cell subsets in the blood of 15 healthy donors.RESULTSParticipants who were protected against colonization showed different early cellular responses compared with colonized participants. Especially prominent for colonization-protected participants were the early expansion of CD36- nonclassical monocytes on day 1 (D1), natural killer cells (D3), follicular T helper cells (D1-D3), and plasma cells (D3). Plasma cell expansion on D3 correlated negatively with the CFU load on D7 and D9 after challenge. Increased plasma cell maturation on D11-D14 was found in participants with seroconversion.CONCLUSIONThese early cellular immune responses following experimental infection can now be further characterized and potentially linked to an efficient mucosal immune response, preventing colonization. Ultimately, their presence may be used to evaluate whether new B. pertussis vaccine candidates are protective against B. pertussis colonization, e.g., by bacterial challenge after vaccination.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT03751514.FUNDINGInnovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and the EuroFlow Consortium.