Hepatitis C epidemiology in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is significant and is increasing with the aging population. The results of a modeling study that included Belgium, along with many other countries, was published in April 2014. An in depth discussion surrounding the epidemiology of HCV in Belgium will be presented here. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to assess the historical and current clinical burden of HCV in Belgium. Two expert panels were convened to discuss the strengths and limitations surrounding the available data and to generate consensus regarding the best estimates for total number of HCV cases, number of cases diagnosed, and the number of patients treated and cured, including potential HCV control strategies. RESULTS: Although no national studies exist, there were an estimated 70,000 (10,000-91,000) viremic HCV infections in 1994. By 2010 there were an estimated 22,900 individuals diagnosed with viremic HCV, and in 2011 approximately 710 patients were treated annually. An estimated 13% of liver transplants were attributable to HCV in 2011. Genotype 1 predominated (59%), followed by genotypes 3 (19%) and 4 (14%). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of HCV prevalence, diagnosed cases and liver transplants due to HCV were available through published studies. However these publications were subject to bias and were occasionally outdated. Improved estimates of HCV prevalence would be useful for informing treatment, prevention and policy efforts in Belgium.

Current and future health and economic impact of hepatitis C in Belgium.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a serious global health problem affecting 150 million individuals worldwide. Although infection rates are decreasing, an aging population with progressing disease is expected to result in increased burden of advanced stage disease with high associated costs. This analysis describes the current and projected future economic impact of HCV sequelae in Belgium. METHODS: A previously described and validated model was populated with Belgian inputs and calibrated to project the current and future health and economic burden of HCV. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses were run to quantify uncertainty. All estimates exclude the cost of antiviral therapy. RESULTS: Costs associated with HCV were projected to peak in 2026 at Euro126M (Euro30M-Euro257M), while decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma costs were projected to increase until 2031 and 2034. The projected 2014-2030 cumulative cost of HCV under current conditions was Euro1,850M. Scenarios to reduce the burden of HCV could result in Euro70M-Euro400M in cumulative cost savings. Starting treatment (1,000 patients) in 2015 could result in Euro150M cost savings. The lifetime cost of HCV increases with life expectancy, with highest future costs projected among young females with early stage disease. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of HCV and advanced stage disease were projected to further increase. Cost reductions are possible with timely interventions aimed at minimizing the health burden of advanced stage disease.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden.

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm.

The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.