Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world's population.

Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions by evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs and two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, including regions already experiencing water scarcity or excess. These patterns are projected to impact a significant portion of the global population, with approximately 3 billion people (38% of the world's current population) affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion people (66% of the world population) under a high emissions scenario by the century's end (or 35-61% using projections of future population). We undertake a country- and state-level analysis quantifying the population exposed to significant changes in precipitation regimes, offering a robust framework for assessing multiple climate projections.

A spatial framework for improved sanitation to support coral reef conservation.

Coral reefs are one of the most valuable yet threatened ecosystems in the world. Improving human wastewater treatment could reduce land-based impacts on coral reefs. However, information on the quantity and spatial distribution of human wastewater pollution is lacking. Here, we develop a spatial model linking residential human wastewater pollution (nitrogen and phosphorus/year) and conservation sectors [coral reefs] to better understand the relative differences in the distribution and efficacy of different sanitation services and their potential implications for conservation monitoring and management. We apply our model to Fiji, where ongoing initiatives and investments in wastewater treatment for human health could be leveraged to cost-effectively improve coral reef condition. We estimate that wastewater treatment plants account for nearly 80% of human wastewater nutrients released into surface waters. Wasterwater nutrient pollution is widespread, affecting 95% of reefs, but is concentrated across a few watersheds. Our spatially explicit approach can be used to better understand potential benefits and trade-offs between sanitation service improvements and coral reef health, helping to bridge the sanitation and conservation sectors as well as inform and prioritize on the ground action.

Coral reefs in peril in a record-breaking year.

Climate change and its impacts on coral reefs have reached unchartered territory.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Formal recognition of host-generalist species of dinoflagellate (Cladocopium, Symbiodiniaceae) mutualistic with Indo-Pacific reef corals.

The existence of widespread species with the capacity to endure diverse, or variable, environments are of importance to ecological and genetic research, and conservation. Such "ecological generalists" are more likely to have key adaptations that allow them to better tolerate the physiological challenges of rapid climate change. Reef-building corals are dependent on endosymbiotic dinoflagellates (Family: Symbiodiniaceae) for their survival and growth. While these symbionts are biologically diverse, certain genetic types appear to have broad geographic distributions and are mutualistic with various host species from multiple genera and families in the order Scleractinia that must acquire their symbionts through horizontal transmission. Despite the considerable ecological importance of putative host-generalist symbionts, they lack formal species descriptions. In this study, we used molecular, ecological, and morphological evidence to verify the existence of five new host-generalist species in the symbiodiniacean genus Cladocopium. Their geographic distribution and prevalence among host communities corresponds to prevailing environmental conditions at both regional and local scales. The influence that each species has on host physiology may partially explain regional differences in thermal sensitivities among coral communities. The potential increased prevalence of a generalist species that endures environmental instability is a consequential ecological response to warming oceans. Large-scale shifts in symbiont dominance could ensure reef coral persistence and productivity in the near term. Ultimately, these formal designations should advance scientific communication and generate informed research questions on the physiology and ecology of coral-dinoflagellate mutualisms.

Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate.

The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade-offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co-benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale-dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re-emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs.

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

Identificación de Oportunidades de Gestión para Combatir las Amenazas Climáticas, Marinas y Terrestres en los Arrecifes de Coral Menos Expuestos al Clima Resumen La conservación de los arrecifes de coral es de suma importancia para mantener la biodiversidad marina y para sostener el medio de vida en muchas comunidades costeras. El cambio climático es una amenaza mundial para los arrecifes de coral; aun así, los investigadores han identificado un portafolio de arrecifes de coral (unidades bioclimáticas[UBCs]) que se encuentran relativamente menos expuestos a los impactos climáticos y están conectados a otros sistemas arrecifales. Estos arrecifes proporcionan una oportunidad proactiva de asegurar un futuro a largo plazo para los arrecifes de coral frente al cambio climático. Para ayudar a guiar los esfuerzos locales de manejo, cuantificamos el impacto humano acumulativo (IHA) sobre los ambientes marinos a partir de las presiones climáticas, marinas y terrestres (del 2008 al 2013) en las UBCs y en los países encargados del manejo de estas. Además, creamos un índice de manejo con base en las medidas y políticas comunes de gestión para cada fuente de presión (clima, ambiente marino, suelo) para identificar la intención y el compromiso de cada país para manejar de manera efectiva estas presiones. Veintidós países (79%) tuvieron incrementos en el IHA entre 2008 y 2013. Las presiones por el cambio climático tuvieron la contribución proporcional más alta al IHA en todos los arrecifes y en todos los países excepto uno (Singapur), pero 18 UBCs (35%) y nueve países que cuentan con UBCs (32%) tuvieron impactos terrestres y marinos relativamente altos. Hubo una relación positiva significativa entre el impacto climático y el índice de manejo climático entre los países (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), lo que potencialmente significa que los países con un mayor impacto climático están más comprometidos con su manejo. Sin embargo, esta tendencia estuvo impulsada por las intenciones de manejo climático en Fiyi y en Bangladesh. Nuestros resultados pueden usarse para orientar los análisis a fina escala, las políticas nacionales y las decisiones locales de manejo en el futuro. Nuestros índices de manejo también revelan áreas en donde se pueden mejorar los componentes gestores. El manejo rentable de las presiones locales (p. ej.: la pesca, los nutrientes) dentro de las UBCs es esencial para construir un futuro preparado climáticamente que beneficie a los arrecifes y a las personas.

Linking isotopic signatures of nitrogen in nearshore coral skeletons with sources in catchment runoff.

We use a multi-tracer approach to identify catchment sources of nitrogen (N) in the skeletons of nearshore Porites corals within the Great Barrier Reef. We measured δ15N, δ13C and C:N ratios of particulate organic matter (POM) sampled from the Pioneer River catchment and identified five distinct end-members: (1) marine planktonic and algal-dominated matter with higher δ15N values from the river mouth and coastal waters; (2) estuarine planktonic and algal matter with lower δ15N values associated with estuarine mixing; (3) lower river freshwater phytoplankton and algal-dominated matter in stratified reservoirs adjacent to catchment weirs, with the 15N-enriched source likely caused by microbial remineralization and denitrification; (4) upper river low δ15N terrigenous soil matter eroded from cane fields bordering waterways; and (5) terrestrial plant detrital matter in forest streams, representing a low δ15N fixed atmospheric nitrogen source. The δ15N values of adjacent, nearshore Porites coral skeletons is reflective of POM composition in coastal waters, with 15N-enriched values reflective of transformed N during flood pulses from the Pioneer River.

Global forest restoration opportunities to foster coral reef conservation.

Sediment runoff from disturbed coastal catchments is a major threat to marine ecosystems. Understanding where sediments are produced and where they are delivered enables managers to design more effective strategies for improving water quality. A management strategy is targeted restoration of degraded terrestrial areas, as it provides opportunities to reduce land-based runoff from coastal areas and consequently foster coral reef conservation. To do this strategically, a systematic approach is needed to identify watersheds where restoration actions will provide the highest conservation benefits for coral reefs. Here, we develop a systematic approach for identifying global forest restoration opportunities that would also result in large decreases in the flux of sediments to coral reefs. We estimate how land-use change affects sediment runoff globally using high-resolution spatial data and determine the subsequent risk of sediment exposure on coral reefs using a diffusion-based ocean transport model. Our results reveal that sediment export is a major issue affecting 41% of coral reefs globally. The main coastal watersheds with the highest sediment export are predominantly located in Southeast Asian countries, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 52% of the sediment export in coastal areas near coral reefs. We show how restoring forest across multiple watersheds could help to reduce sediment export to 63,000 km2 of coral reefs. Although reforestation opportunities in areas that discharge onto coral reefs are relatively small across watersheds, it is possible to achieve large sediment reduction benefits by strategically targeting watersheds located in regions with a high density of corals near to the coast. Thus, reforestation benefits on coral reefs do not necessarily come from the watersheds that produce the highest sediment export. These analyses are key for generating informed action to support both international conservation policy and national restoration activities.

Asymmetric physiological response of a reef-building coral to pulsed versus continuous addition of inorganic nutrients.

Coral reefs, especially those located near-shore, are increasingly exposed to anthropogenic, eutrophic conditions that are often chronic. Yet, corals under unperturbed conditions may frequently receive natural and usually temporary nutrient supplementation through biological sources such as fishes. We compared physiological parameters indicative of long- and short-term coral health (day and night calcification, fragment surface area, productivity, energy reserves, and tissue stoichiometry) under continuous and temporary nutrient enrichment. The symbiotic coral Acropora intermedia was grown for 7 weeks under continuously elevated (press) levels of ammonium (14 µmol L-1) and phosphate (10 µmol L-1) as separate and combined treatments, to discern the individual and interactive nutrient effects. Another treatment exposed A. intermedia twice-daily to an ammonium and phosphate pulse of the same concentrations as the press treatments to simulate natural biotic supplementation. Press exposure to elevated ammonium or phosphate produced mixed effects on physiological responses, with little interaction between the nutrients in the combined treatment. Overall, corals under press exposure transitioned resources away from calcification. However, exposure to nutrient pulses often enhanced physiological responses. Our findings indicate that while continuous nutrient enrichment may pose a threat to coral health, episodic nutrient pulses that resemble natural nutrient supplementation may significantly benefit coral health and physiology.

Morphological stasis masks ecologically divergent coral species on tropical reefs.

Coral reefs are the epitome of species diversity, yet the number of described scleractinian coral species, the framework-builders of coral reefs, remains moderate by comparison. DNA sequencing studies are rapidly challenging this notion by exposing a wealth of undescribed diversity, but the evolutionary and ecological significance of this diversity remains largely unclear. Here, we present an annotated genome for one of the most ubiquitous corals in the Indo-Pacific (Pachyseris speciosa) and uncover, through a comprehensive genomic and phenotypic assessment, that it comprises morphologically indistinguishable but ecologically divergent lineages. Demographic modeling based on whole-genome resequencing indicated that morphological crypsis (across micro- and macromorphological traits) was due to ancient morphological stasis rather than recent divergence. Although the lineages occur sympatrically across shallow and mesophotic habitats, extensive genotyping using a rapid molecular assay revealed differentiation of their ecological distributions. Leveraging "common garden" conditions facilitated by the overlapping distributions, we assessed physiological and quantitative skeletal traits and demonstrated concurrent phenotypic differentiation. Lastly, spawning observations of genotyped colonies highlighted the potential role of temporal reproductive isolation in the limited admixture, with consistent genomic signatures in genes related to morphogenesis and reproduction. Overall, our findings demonstrate the presence of ecologically and phenotypically divergent coral species without substantial morphological differentiation and provide new leads into the potential mechanisms facilitating such divergence. More broadly, they indicate that our current taxonomic framework for reef-building corals may be scratching the surface of the ecologically relevant diversity on coral reefs, consequently limiting our ability to protect or restore this diversity effectively.

Benthic and coral reef community field data for Heron Reef, Southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia, 2002-2018.

This paper describes benthic coral reef community composition point-based field data sets derived from georeferenced photoquadrats using machine learning. Annually over a 17 year period (2002-2018), data were collected using downward-looking photoquadrats that capture an approximately 1 m2 footprint along 100 m-1500 m transect surveys distributed along the reef slope and across the reef flat of Heron Reef (28 km2), Southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Benthic community composition for the photoquadrats was automatically interpreted through deep learning, following initial manual calibration of the algorithm. The resulting data sets support understanding of coral reef biology, ecology, mapping and dynamics. Similar methods to derive the benthic data have been published for seagrass habitats, however here we have adapted the methods for application to coral reef habitats, with the integration of automatic photoquadrat analysis. The approach presented is globally applicable for various submerged and benthic community ecological applications, and provides the basis for further studies at this site, regional to global comparative studies, and for the design of similar monitoring programs elsewhere.

A contemporary baseline record of the world's coral reefs.

Addressing the global decline of coral reefs requires effective actions from managers, policymakers and society as a whole. Coral reef scientists are therefore challenged with the task of providing prompt and relevant inputs for science-based decision-making. Here, we provide a baseline dataset, covering 1300 km of tropical coral reef habitats globally, and comprised of over one million geo-referenced, high-resolution photo-quadrats analysed using artificial intelligence to automatically estimate the proportional cover of benthic components. The dataset contains information on five major reef regions, and spans 2012-2018, including surveys before and after the 2016 global bleaching event. The taxonomic resolution attained by image analysis, as well as the spatially explicit nature of the images, allow for multi-scale spatial analyses, temporal assessments (decline and recovery), and serve for supporting image recognition developments. This standardised dataset across broad geographies offers a significant contribution towards a sound baseline for advancing our understanding of coral reef ecology and thereby taking collective and informed actions to mitigate catastrophic losses in coral reefs worldwide.

The World Coral Conservatory (WCC): A Noah's ark for corals to support survival of reef ecosystems.

Global change causes widespread decline of coral reefs. In order to counter the anticipated disappearance of coral reefs by the end of this century, many initiatives are emerging, including creation of marine protected areas (MPAs), reef restoration projects, and assisted evolution initiatives. Such efforts, although critically important, are locally constrained. We propose to build a "Noah's Ark" biological repository for corals that taps into the network of the world's public aquaria and coral reef scientists. Public aquaria will serve not only as a reservoir for the purpose of conservation, restoration, and research of reef-building corals but also as a laboratory for the implementation of operations for the selection of stress-resilient and resistant genotypes. The proposed project will provide a global dimension to coral reef education and protection as a result of the involvement of a network of public and private aquaria.

Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs.

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef-building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad-scale climate-related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.

Paradise lost: End-of-century warming and acidification under business-as-usual emissions have severe consequences for symbiotic corals.

Despite recent efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, current global emission trajectories are still following the business-as-usual representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission pathway. The resulting ocean warming and acidification have transformative impacts on coral reef ecosystems, detrimentally affecting coral physiology and health, and these impacts are predicted to worsen in the near future. In this study, we kept fragments of the symbiotic corals Acropora intermedia (thermally sensitive) and Porites lobata (thermally tolerant) for 7 weeks under an orthogonal design of predicted end-of-century RCP8.5 conditions for temperature and pCO2 (3.5°C and 570 ppm above present-day, respectively) to unravel how temperature and acidification, individually or interactively, influence metabolic and physiological performance. Our results pinpoint thermal stress as the dominant driver of deteriorating health in both species because of its propensity to destabilize coral-dinoflagellate symbiosis (bleaching). Acidification had no influence on metabolism but had a significant negative effect on skeleton growth, particularly when photosynthesis was absent such as in bleached corals or under dark conditions. Total loss of photosynthesis after bleaching caused an exhaustion of protein and lipid stores and collapse of calcification that ultimately led to A. intermedia mortality. Despite complete loss of symbionts from its tissue, P. lobata maintained small amounts of photosynthesis and experienced a weaker decline in lipid and protein reserves that presumably contributed to higher survival of this species. Our results indicate that ocean warming and acidification under business-as-usual CO2 emission scenarios will likely extirpate thermally sensitive coral species before the end of the century, while slowing the recovery of more thermally tolerant species from increasingly severe mass coral bleaching and mortality. This could ultimately lead to the gradual disappearance of tropical coral reefs globally, and a shift on surviving reefs to only the most resilient coral species.

Seasonal shifts in the competitive ability of macroalgae influence the outcomes of coral-algal competition.

Understanding the effects of natural processes on coral-algal competition is an important step in identifying the role of macroalgae in perturbed coral reef ecosystems. However, studies investigating coral-algal interactions are often conducted in response to a disturbance, and rarely incorporate seasonal variability. Here, naturally occurring coral-algal interactions were assessed in situ four times a year over 2 years across eight sites spanning diverse benthic communities. In over 6500 recorded coral-algal interactions, cyanobacteria and turf algae were found to be the most damaging regardless of season, resulting in visible damage to coral in greater than 95% of interactions. Macroalgae that primarily compete using chemical mechanisms were found to be more damaging than those that compete using physical mechanisms (e.g. abrasion), with both groups demonstrating decreased competitive ability in summer. While crustose coralline algae were the least damaging to competing coral, during summer, it became three times more competitive. Our results demonstrate that the competitive ability of macroalgae and the outcomes of coral-algal competition can fluctuate in seasonal cycles that may be related to biomass, production of chemical defences and/or physical toughness. The results of this study have important implications for understanding the trajectory and resilience of coral reef ecosystems into the future.

Single-cell visualization indicates direct role of sponge host in uptake of dissolved organic matter.

Marine sponges are set to become more abundant in many near-future oligotrophic environments, where they play crucial roles in nutrient cycling. Of high importance is their mass turnover of dissolved organic matter (DOM), a heterogeneous mixture that constitutes the largest fraction of organic matter in the ocean and is recycled primarily by bacterial mediation. Little is known, however, about the mechanism that enables sponges to incorporate large quantities of DOM in their nutrition, unlike most other invertebrates. Here, we examine the cellular capacity for direct processing of DOM, and the fate of the processed matter, inside a dinoflagellate-hosting bioeroding sponge that is prominent on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Integrating transmission electron microscopy with nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry, we track 15N- and 13C-enriched DOM over time at the individual cell level of an intact sponge holobiont. We show initial high enrichment in the filter-feeding cells of the sponge, providing visual evidence of their capacity to process DOM through pinocytosis without mediation of resident bacteria. Subsequent enrichment of the endosymbiotic dinoflagellates also suggests sharing of host nitrogenous wastes. Our results shed light on the physiological mechanism behind the ecologically important ability of sponges to cycle DOM via the recently described sponge loop.

Living coral tissue slows skeletal dissolution related to ocean acidification.

Climate change is causing major changes to marine ecosystems globally, with ocean acidification of particular concern for coral reefs. Using a 200 d in situ carbon dioxide enrichment study on Heron Island, Australia, we simulated future ocean acidification conditions, and found reduced pH led to a drastic decline in net calcification of living corals to no net growth, and accelerated disintegration of dead corals. Net calcification declined more severely than in previous studies due to exposure to the natural community of bioeroding organisms in this in situ study and to a longer experimental duration. Our data suggest that reef flat corals reach net dissolution at an aragonite saturation state (ΩAR) of 2.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.8-2.8) with 100% living coral cover and at ΩAR > 3.5 with 30% living coral cover. This model suggests that areas of the reef with relatively low coral mortality, where living coral cover is high, are likely to be resistant to carbon dioxide-induced reef dissolution.