The need for systems thinking to advance Alzheimer's disease research.

Despite extensive research efforts to mechanistically understand late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) and other complex mental health disorders, curative treatments remain elusive. We emphasize the multiscale multicausality inherent to LOAD, highlighting the interplay between interconnected pathophysiological processes and risk factors. Systems thinking methods, such as causal loop diagrams and systems dynamic models, offer powerful means to capture and study this complexity. Recent studies developed and validated a causal loop diagram and system dynamics model using multiple longitudinal data sets, enabling the simulation of personalized interventions on various modifiable risk factors in LOAD. The results indicate that targeting factors like sleep disturbance and depressive symptoms could be promising and yield synergistic benefits. Furthermore, personalized interventions showed significant potential, with top-ranked intervention strategies differing significantly across individuals. We argue that systems thinking approaches can open new prospects for multifactorial precision medicine. In future research, systems thinking may also guide structured, model-driven data collection on the multiple interactions in LOAD's complex multicausality, facilitating theory development and possibly resulting in effective prevention and treatment options.

The impact of cardiovascular diagnostics and treatments on fall risk in older adults: a scoping review and evidence map.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to summarize the published evidence on the fall risk reducing potential of cardiovascular diagnostics and treatments in older adults. METHODS: Design: scoping review and evidence map. DATA SOURCES: Medline and Embase. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: all available published evidence; Key search concepts: "older adults," "cardiovascular evaluation," "cardiovascular intervention," and "falls." Studies reporting on fall risk reducing effect of the diagnostic/treatment were included in the evidence map. Studies that investigated cardiovascular diagnostics or treatments within the context of falls, but without reporting a fall-related outcome, were included in the scoping review for qualitative synthesis. RESULTS: Two articles on cardiovascular diagnostics and eight articles on cardiovascular treatments were included in the evidence map. Six out of ten studies concerned pacemaker intervention of which one meta-analyses that included randomized controlled trials with contradictory results. A combined cardiovascular assessment/evaluation (one study) and pharmacotherapy in orthostatic hypotension (one study) showed fall reducing potential. The scoping review contained 40 articles on cardiovascular diagnostics and one on cardiovascular treatments. It provides an extensive overview of several diagnostics (e.g., orthostatic blood pressure measurements, heart rhythm assessment) useful in fall prevention. Also, diagnostics were identified, that could potentially provide added value in fall prevention (e.g., blood pressure variability and head turning). CONCLUSION: Although the majority of studies showed a reduction in falls after the intervention, the total amount of evidence regarding the effect of cardiovascular diagnostics/treatments on falls is small. Our findings can be used to optimize fall prevention strategies and develop an evidence-based fall prevention care pathway. Adhering to the World guidelines on fall prevention recommendations, it is crucial to undertake a standardized assessment of cardiovascular risk factors, followed by supplementary testing and corresponding interventions, as effective components of fall prevention strategies. In addition, accompanying diagnostics such as blood pressure variability and head turning can be of added value.

Exploring the potential impact of multi-factor precision interventions in Alzheimer's disease with system dynamics.

Numerous clinical trials based on a single-cause paradigm have not resulted in efficacious treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recently, prevention trials that simultaneously intervened on multiple risk factors have shown mixed results, suggesting that careful design is necessary. Moreover, intensive pilot precision medicine (PM) trial results have been promising but may not generalize to a broader population. These observations suggest that a model-based approach to multi-factor precision medicine (PM) is warranted. We systematically developed a system dynamics model (SDM) of AD for PM using data from two longitudinal studies (N=3660). This method involved a model selection procedure in identifying interaction terms between the SDM components and estimating individualized parameters. We used the SDM to explore simulated single- and double-factor interventions on 14 modifiable risk factors. We quantified the potential impact of double-factor interventions over single-factor interventions as 1.5 [95% CI: 1.5-2.6] and of SDM-based PM over a one-size-fits-all approach as 3.5 [3.1, 3.8] ADAS-cog-13 points in 12 years. Although the model remains to be validated, we tentatively conclude that multi-factor PM could come to play an important role in AD prevention.

Image-based flow simulation of platelet aggregates under different shear rates.

Hemodynamics is crucial for the activation and aggregation of platelets in response to flow-induced shear. In this paper, a novel image-based computational model simulating blood flow through and around platelet aggregates is presented. The microstructure of aggregates was captured by two different modalities of microscopy images of in vitro whole blood perfusion experiments in microfluidic chambers coated with collagen. One set of images captured the geometry of the aggregate outline, while the other employed platelet labelling to infer the internal density. The platelet aggregates were modelled as a porous medium, the permeability of which was calculated with the Kozeny-Carman equation. The computational model was subsequently applied to study hemodynamics inside and around the platelet aggregates. The blood flow velocity, shear stress and kinetic force exerted on the aggregates were investigated and compared under 800 s-1, 1600 s-1 and 4000 s-1 wall shear rates. The advection-diffusion balance of agonist transport inside the platelet aggregates was also evaluated by local Péclet number. The findings show that the transport of agonists is not only affected by the shear rate but also significantly influenced by the microstructure of the aggregates. Moreover, large kinetic forces were found at the transition zone from shell to core of the aggregates, which could contribute to identifying the boundary between the shell and the core. The shear rate and the rate of elongation flow were investigated as well. The results imply that the emerging shapes of aggregates are highly correlated to the shear rate and the rate of elongation. The framework provides a way to incorporate the internal microstructure of the aggregates into the computational model and yields a better understanding of the hemodynamics and physiology of platelet aggregates, hence laying the foundation for predicting aggregation and deformation under different flow conditions.

Applying systems thinking to unravel the mechanisms underlying orthostatic hypotension related fall risk.

Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is an established and common cardiovascular risk factor for falls. An in-depth understanding of the various interacting pathophysiological pathways contributing to OH-related falls is essential to guide improvements in diagnostic and treatment opportunities. We applied systems thinking to multidisciplinary map out causal mechanisms and risk factors. For this, we used group model building (GMB) to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD). The GMB was based on the input of experts from multiple domains related to OH and falls and all proposed mechanisms were supported by scientific literature. Our CLD is a conceptual representation of factors involved in OH-related falls, and their interrelatedness. Network analysis and feedback loops were applied to analyze and interpret the CLD, and quantitatively summarize the function and relative importance of the variables. Our CLD contains 50 variables distributed over three intrinsic domains (cerebral, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal), and an extrinsic domain (e.g., medications). Between the variables, 181 connections and 65 feedback loops were identified. Decreased cerebral blood flow, low blood pressure, impaired baroreflex activity, and physical inactivity were identified as key factors involved in OH-related falls, based on their high centralities. Our CLD reflects the multifactorial pathophysiology of OH-related falls. It enables us to identify key elements, suggesting their potential for new diagnostic and treatment approaches in fall prevention. The interactive online CLD renders it suitable for both research and educational purposes and this CLD is the first step in the development of a computational model for simulating the effects of risk factors on falls.

Simulating the multicausality of Alzheimer's disease with system dynamics.

INTRODUCTION: In Alzheimer's disease (AD), cognitive decline is driven by various interlinking causal factors. Systems thinking could help elucidate this multicausality and identify opportune intervention targets. METHODS: We developed a system dynamics model (SDM) of sporadic AD with 33 factors and 148 causal links calibrated with empirical data from two studies. We tested the SDM's validity by ranking intervention outcomes on 15 modifiable risk factors to two sets of 44 and 9 validation statements based on meta-analyses of observational data and randomized controlled trials, respectively. RESULTS: The SDM answered 77% and 78% of the validation statements correctly. Sleep quality and depressive symptoms yielded the largest effects on cognitive decline with which they were connected through strong reinforcing feedback loops, including via phosphorylated tau burden. DISCUSSION: SDMs can be constructed and validated to simulate interventions and gain insight into the relative contribution of mechanistic pathways.

Modelling collateral flow and thrombus permeability during acute ischaemic stroke.

The presence of collaterals and high thrombus permeability are associated with good functional outcomes after an acute ischaemic stroke. We aim to understand the combined effect of the collaterals and thrombus permeability on cerebral blood flow during an acute ischaemic stroke. A cerebral blood flow model including the leptomeningeal collateral circulation is used to simulate cerebral blood flow during an acute ischaemic stroke. The collateral circulation is varied to capture the collateral scores: absent, poor, moderate and good. Measurements of the transit time, void fraction and thrombus length in acute ischaemic stroke patients are used to estimate thrombus permeability. Estimated thrombus permeability ranges between 10-7 and 10-4 mm2. Measured flow rates through the thrombus are small and the effect of a permeable thrombus on brain perfusion during stroke is small compared with the effect of collaterals. Our simulations suggest that the collaterals are a dominant factor in the resulting infarct volume after a stroke.

Impact of cardiovascular evaluations and interventions on fall risk in older adults: a protocol for a scoping review and evidence map.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disorders are increasingly recognised as important fall risk factors in older adults. Falls are a major public health problem in older adults, and therefore, effective interventions for reducing falls are essential for this population. Cardiovascular disease is a clinically relevant (but often overlooked) and potentially modifiable risk factor for falls. Literature describing the effects of cardiovascular assessments and treatments on fall prevention has generally focused on only one specific test or treatment. A comprehensive, comparative overview surrounding the effectiveness of available assessments and treatments on cardiovascular related fall risk is currently lacking. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review and evidence map will be conducted to summarise the available evidence regarding the (comparative) effectiveness of cardiovascular assessments and therapeutic interventions on reducing fall risk in older individuals. A systematic and comprehensive literature search will be performed in MEDLINE and Embase using the key components 'older adults', 'cardiovascular evaluation', 'cardiovascular intervention' and 'falls'. Furthermore, we will create an evidence map to summarise the quantity and quality of currently available evidence identified in the scoping review. The evidence map will consider, but will not be limited to, observational studies, randomised controlled trials and reviews evaluating cardiovascular tests and treatments (vs controls) on fall risk in older adults. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review and evidence map will only include data that are publicly available and, therefore, ethical approval is not required. The results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at scientific conferences.

Uncertainty quantification of a three-dimensional in-stent restenosis model with surrogate modelling.

In-stent restenosis is a recurrence of coronary artery narrowing due to vascular injury caused by balloon dilation and stent placement. It may lead to the relapse of angina symptoms or to an acute coronary syndrome. An uncertainty quantification of a model for in-stent restenosis with four uncertain parameters (endothelium regeneration time, the threshold strain for smooth muscle cell bond breaking, blood flow velocity and the percentage of fenestration in the internal elastic lamina) is presented. Two quantities of interest were studied, namely the average cross-sectional area and the maximum relative area loss in a vessel. Owing to the high computational cost required for uncertainty quantification, a surrogate model, based on Gaussian process regression with proper orthogonal decomposition, was developed and subsequently used for model response evaluation in the uncertainty quantification. A detailed analysis of the uncertainty propagation is presented. Around 11% and 16% uncertainty is observed on the two quantities of interest, respectively, and the uncertainty estimates show that a higher fenestration mainly determines the uncertainty in the neointimal growth at the initial stage of the process. The uncertainties in blood flow velocity and endothelium regeneration time mainly determine the uncertainty in the quantities of interest at the later, clinically relevant stages of the restenosis process.

Animal models and animal-free innovations for cardiovascular research: current status and routes to be explored. Consensus document of the ESC Working Group on Myocardial Function and the ESC Working Group on Cellular Biology of the Heart.

Cardiovascular diseases represent a major cause of morbidity and mortality, necessitating research to improve diagnostics, and to discover and test novel preventive and curative therapies, all of which warrant experimental models that recapitulate human disease. The translation of basic science results to clinical practice is a challenging task, in particular for complex conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, which often result from multiple risk factors and comorbidities. This difficulty might lead some individuals to question the value of animal research, citing the translational 'valley of death', which largely reflects the fact that studies in rodents are difficult to translate to humans. This is also influenced by the fact that new, human-derived in vitro models can recapitulate aspects of disease processes. However, it would be a mistake to think that animal models do not represent a vital step in the translational pathway as they do provide important pathophysiological insights into disease mechanisms particularly on an organ and systemic level. While stem cell-derived human models have the potential to become key in testing toxicity and effectiveness of new drugs, we need to be realistic, and carefully validate all new human-like disease models. In this position paper, we highlight recent advances in trying to reduce the number of animals for cardiovascular research ranging from stem cell-derived models to in situ modelling of heart properties, bioinformatic models based on large datasets, and state-of-the-art animal models, which show clinically relevant characteristics observed in patients with a cardiovascular disease. We aim to provide a guide to help researchers in their experimental design to translate bench findings to clinical routine taking the replacement, reduction, and refinement (3R) as a guiding concept.

The Effects of Micro-vessel Curvature Induced Elongational Flows on Platelet Adhesion.

The emerging profile of blood flow and the cross-sectional distribution of blood cells have far reaching biological consequences in various diseases and vital internal processes, such as platelet adhesion. The effects of several essential blood flow parameters, such as red blood cell free layer width, wall shear rate, and hematocrit on platelet adhesion were previously explored to great lengths in straight geometries. In the current work, the effects of channel curvature on cellular blood flow are investigated by simulating the accurate cellular movement and interaction of red blood cells and platelets in a half-arc channel for multiple wall shear rate and hematocrit values. The results show significant differences in the emerging shear rate values and distributions between the inner and outer arc of the channel curve, while the cell distributions remain predominantly uninfluenced. The simulation predictions are also compared to experimental platelet adhesion in a similar curved geometry. The inner side of the arc shows elevated platelet adhesion intensity at high wall shear rate, which correlates with increased shear rate and shear rate gradient sites in the simulation. Furthermore, since the platelet availability for binding seems uninfluenced by the curvature, these effects might influence the binding mechanics rather than the probability. The presence of elongational flows is detected in the simulations and the link to increased platelet adhesion is discussed in the experimental results.

In silico trials for treatment of acute ischemic stroke: Design and implementation.

An in silico trial simulates a disease and its corresponding therapies on a cohort of virtual patients to support the development and evaluation of medical devices, drugs, and treatment. In silico trials have the potential to refine, reduce cost, and partially replace current in vivo studies, namely clinical trials and animal testing. We present the design and implementation of an in silico trial for treatment of acute ischemic stroke. We propose an event-based modelling approach for the simulation of a disease and injury, where changes to the state of the system (the events) are assumed to be instantaneous. Using this approach we are able to combine a diverse set of models, spanning multiple time scales, to model acute ischemic stroke, treatment, and resulting brain tissue injury. The in silico trial is designed to be modular to aid development and reproducibility. It provides a comprehensive framework for application to any potential in silico trial. A statistical population model is used to generate cohorts of virtual patients. Patient functional outcomes are also predicted with a statistical model, using treatment and injury results and the patient's clinical parameters. We demonstrate the functionality of the event-based modelling approach and trial framework by running proof of concept in silico trials. The proof of concept trials simulate the same cohort of patients twice: once with successful treatment (successful recanalisation) and once with unsuccessful treatment (unsuccessful treatment). Ways to overcome some of the challenges and difficulties in setting up such an in silico trial are discussed, such as validation and computational limitations.

Modelling the leptomeningeal collateral circulation during acute ischaemic stroke.

A novel model of the leptomeningeal collateral circulation is created by combining data from multiple sources with statistical scaling laws. The extent of the collateral circulation is varied by defining a collateral vessel probability. Blood flow and pressure are simulated using a one-dimensional steady state blood flow model. The leptomeningeal collateral vessels provide significant flow during a stroke. The pressure drop over an occlusion predicted by the model ranges between 60 and 85 mmHg depending on the extent of the collateral circulation. The linear transport of contrast material was simulated in the circulatory network. The time delay of peak contrast over an occlusion is 3.3 s in the model, and 2.1 s (IQR 0.8-4.0 s) when measured in dynamic CTA data of acute ischaemic stroke patients. Modelling the leptomeningeal collateral circulation could lead to better estimates of infarct volume and patient outcome.

Mapping the multicausality of Alzheimer's disease through group model building.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex, multicausal disorder involving several spatiotemporal scales and scientific domains. While many studies focus on specific parts of this system, the complexity of AD is rarely studied as a whole. In this work, we apply systems thinking to map out known causal mechanisms and risk factors ranging from intracellular to psychosocial scales in sporadic AD. We report on the first systemic causal loop diagram (CLD) for AD, which is the result of an interdisciplinary group model building (GMB) process. The GMB was based on the input of experts from multiple domains and all proposed mechanisms were supported by scientific literature. The CLD elucidates interaction and feedback mechanisms that contribute to cognitive decline from midlife onward as described by the experts. As an immediate outcome, we observed several non-trivial reinforcing feedback loops involving factors at multiple spatial scales, which are rarely considered within the same theoretical framework. We also observed high centrality for modifiable risk factors such as social relationships and physical activity, which suggests they may be promising leverage points for interventions. This illustrates how a CLD from an interdisciplinary GMB process may lead to novel insights into complex disorders. Furthermore, the CLD is the first step in the development of a computational model for simulating the effects of risk factors on AD.

Coupling one-dimensional arterial blood flow to three-dimensional tissue perfusion models for in silico trials of acute ischaemic stroke.

An acute ischaemic stroke is due to the sudden blockage of an intracranial blood vessel by an embolized thrombus. In the context of setting up in silico trials for the treatment of acute ischaemic stroke, the effect of a stroke on perfusion and metabolism of brain tissue should be modelled to predict final infarcted brain tissue. This requires coupling of blood flow and tissue perfusion models. A one-dimensional intracranial blood flow model and a method to couple this to a brain tissue perfusion model for patient-specific simulations is presented. Image-based patient-specific data on the anatomy of the circle of Willis are combined with literature data and models for vessel anatomy not visible in the images, to create an extended model for each patient from the larger vessels down to the pial surface. The coupling between arterial blood flow and tissue perfusion occurs at the pial surface through the estimation of perfusion territories. The coupling method is able to accurately estimate perfusion territories. Finally, we argue that blood flow can be approximated as steady-state flow at the interface between arterial blood flow and tissue perfusion to reduce the cost of organ-scale simulations.

Biorheology of occlusive thrombi formation under high shear: in vitro growth and shrinkage.

Occlusive thrombi formed under high flow shear rates develop very rapidly in arteries and may lead to myocardial infarction or stroke. Rapid platelet accumulation (RPA) and occlusion of platelet-rich thrombi and clot shrinkage have been studied after flow arrest. However, the influence of margination and shear rate on occlusive clot formation is not fully understood yet. In this study, the influence of flow on the growth and shrinkage of a clot is investigated. Whole blood (WB) and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) were perfused at high shear rates (> 3,000 s-1) through two microfluidic systems with a stenotic section under constant pressure. The stenotic section of the two devices are different in stenotic length (1,000 vs 150 µm) and contraction angle of the stenosis (15° vs 80°). In all experiments, the flow chamber occluded in the stenotic section. Besides a significantly increased lag time and decreased RPA rate for PRP compared to WB (p < 0.01), the device with a shorter stenotic section and steeper contraction angle showed a shear-dependent occlusion and lag time for both PRP and WB. This shear-dependent behavior of the platelet aggregate formation might be caused by the stenotic geometry.

Redistribution of TPA Fluxes in the Presence of PAI-1 Regulates Spatial Thrombolysis.

The fibrin clot is gelatinous matter formed upon injury to stop blood loss and is later destroyed by fibrinolysis, an enzymatic cascade with feedback. Pharmacological fibrinolysis stimulation is also used to destroy pathological, life-threatening clots and thrombi (thrombolysis). The regulation of the nonlinear spatially nonuniform fibrinolytic process in thrombolysis is not currently well understood. We developed a reaction-diffusion-advection model of thrombolysis by tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) in an occluded vessel with a pressure gradient. Sensitivity-analysis-based model reduction was used to reveal the critical processes controlling different steps of thrombolysis. The propagation of thrombolysis in the system without flow was predominantly controlled by TPA diffusion, whereas transport of other active components was rendered nonessential either by their high fibrin-binding parameters and short lifetimes or their initial uniform distribution. The concentration of the main TPA inhibitor plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) controlled both the extent of lysis propagation and the shape of fibrin spatial distribution during lysis. Interestingly, PAI-1 remained important even when its concentration was an order of magnitude below that of TPA because of its role at the edge of the diffusing TPA front. The system was robust to reaction rate constant perturbations. Using these data, a reduced model of thrombolysis was proposed. In the presence of flow, convection of TPA was the critical controlling process; although the role of PAI-1 concentration was much less in the presence of flow, its influence became greater in the presence of collateral bypassing vessels, which sufficiently reduced TPA flux through the thrombus. Flow bypass through the collateral vessel caused a decrease in TPA flux in the clotted vessel, which increased the PAI-1/TPA ratio, thus making PAI-1-induced inhibition relevant for the regulation of spatial lysis up to its arrest.

[Complexity of disease; a modern view in times of ageing populations and multimorbidity]. / Complexiteit van ziekten.

Complexity of patient care is rapidly increasing as a consequence of rising numbers of patients with complex multimorbidity. Not just the patient as a whole, but also the networks of organs, tissues and cells are forming a complex adaptive system (CAS). A CAS is defined as a network of several components ('agents') with lots of mutual feedback loops between which there are circular causalities; the predictability of a CAS is limited by definition. However, current guidelines and evidence-based medicine assume that diseases and the medical interventions to address them are predictable. Physicians' brains are complex neural networks that are much better at dealing with complex situations than guidelines. In the near future, physicians will also get help from advanced computer simulation models that make better diagnostic analyses on the basis of detailed phenotyping and are more accurate when predicting possible courses of disease and treatment outcomes.

Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale.

This short contribution introduces a theme issue dedicated to 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'. It holds a collection of articles presenting cutting-edge research in generic multiscale modelling and multiscale computing, and applications thereof on high-performance computing systems. The special issue starts with a position paper to discuss the paradigm of multiscale computing in the face of the emerging exascale, followed by a review and critical assessment of existing multiscale computing environments. This theme issue provides a state-of-the-art account of generic multiscale computing, as well as exciting examples of applications of such concepts in domains ranging from astrophysics, via material science and fusion, to biomedical sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.