Genetic evidence of a northward range expansion in the eastern Bering Sea stock of Pacific cod.

Poleward species range shifts have been predicted to result from climate change, and many observations have confirmed such movement. Poleward shifts may represent a homogeneous shift in distribution, seasonal northward movement of specific populations, or colonization processes at the poleward edge of the distribution. The ecosystem of the Bering Sea has been changing along with the climate, moving from an arctic to a subarctic system. Several fish species have been observed farther north than previously reported and in increasing abundances. We examined one of these fish species, Pacific cod, in the northern Bering Sea (NBS) to assess whether they migrated from another stock in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), Gulf of Alaska, or Aleutian Islands, or whether they represent a separate population. Genetic analyses using 3,599 single nucleotide polymorphism markers indicated that nonspawning cod collected in August 2017 in the NBS were similar to spawning stocks of cod in the EBS. This result suggests escalating northward movement of the large EBS stock during summer months. Whether the cod observed in the NBS migrate south during winter to spawn or remain in the NBS as a sink population is unknown.

Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments in data-rich systems: An application to eastern Bering Sea fish and invertebrate stocks.

Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait-based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data-rich and data-poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait-based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data-rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex-vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from "low" to "high," but vulnerability ranged between "low" and "moderate" due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks.

Subregional differences in groundfish distributional responses to anomalous ocean bottom temperatures in the northeast Pacific.

Although climate-induced shifts in fish distribution have been widely reported at the population level, studies that account for ontogenetic shifts and subregional differences when assessing responses are rare.In this study, groundfish distributional changes in depth, latitude, and longitude were assessed at different size classes by species within nine subregions. We examined large, quality-controlled datasets of depth-stratified-random bottom trawl surveys conducted during summer in three large regions-the Gulf of Alaska and the west coasts of Canada and the United States-over the period 1996-2015, a time period punctuated by a marine "heat wave." Temporal biases in bottom temperature were minimized by subdividing each region into three subregions, each with short-duration surveys. Near-bottom temperatures, weighted by stratum area, were unsynchronized across subregions and exhibited varying subregional interannual variability. The weighted mean bottom depths in the subregions also vary largely among subregions. The centroids (centers of gravity) of groundfish distribution were weighted with catch per unit effort and stratum area for 10 commercially important groundfish species by size class and subregion. Our multivariate analyses showed that there were significant differences in aggregate fish movement responses to warm temperatures across subregions but not among species or sizes. Groundfish demonstrated poleward responses to warming temperatures only in a few subregions and moved shallower or deeper to seek colder waters. The temperature responses of groundfish depended on where they were. Under global warming, groundfish may form geographically distinct thermal ecoregions along the northeast Pacific shelf. Shallow-depth species exhibited greatly different distributional responses to temperature changes across subregions while deep-depth species of different subregions tend to have relatively similar temperature responses. Future climate studies would benefit by considering fish distributions on small subregional scales.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.