Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements.

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios.

Under rapid Arctic warming, the vast amount of labile organic carbon stored in Arctic permafrost soils poses a potentially huge threat. Thawing permafrost will release hundreds of billion tons of soil carbon into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 and CH4 that would further intensify global warming and bring more challenges to human society. In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010-2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions. Our results show that in terms of net present value (NPV), the release of CO2 and CH4 from circum-Arctic permafrost will generate estimated net economic losses of US$2.5 trillion (5-95% range: 0.3-11.2 US$ trillion) under the RCP4.5-SPP1 scenario and US$12.7 trillion (5-95% range: 1.6-41.8 US$ trillion) under the RCP8.5-SPP3 scenario between 2010 and 2100, which contribute ~4.9% and ~6.4% respectively of net economic losses of global carbon emissions.

Mimi-PAGE, an open-source implementation of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model.

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have become critical tools for assessing the costs and benefits of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Three models currently inform the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2, the net present value of damages from one additional ton of CO2) used by the US federal government, several states, and Canada. Here we present a new open-source implementation of one of these models (PAGE09) in the Julia programming language using a modular modeling framework (Mimi). Mimi-PAGE was coded using best coding practices (such as multiple code reviews by different individuals during development, automated testing of newly-committed code, and provision of documentation and usage notes) and is publicly available in a GitHub repository for community inspection and use under an open source license. In this paper we describe the Julia implementation of PAGE09, show that output from Mimi-PAGE matches that of the original model, and perform comparisons of the run time between the two implementations.

Initial Evaluation of Fenofibrate for Efficacy in Aiding Smoking Abstinence.

INTRODUCTION: Primate and rodent models show that peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-alpha (PPAR-α) ligands, including fibrate medications, reduce nicotine reinforcement, reward, and related effects. We tested fenofibrate, the most common U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved fibrate for lipid control versus placebo for initial evidence of efficacy in smoking cessation using a validated cross-over procedure for early Phase 2 evaluations. METHODS: Adult dependent smokers (N = 38) in this 4-week within-subjects study were those already intending to try to quit in the next 2 months. All smoked ad libitum during weeks 1 (baseline) and 3 (washout) and began fenofibrate (160 mg/d; dosing approved for lipid control) or placebo near the end of weeks 1 and 3. Following each 4-day dose run-up, they were then instructed to try to quit for 4 days (Tuesday-Friday) during weeks 2 and 4, with the order of medication conditions counter-balanced and administered double-blind. Abstinence was verified daily in each 4-day quit period by self-report of no smoking in the prior 24 hours and carbon monoxide < 5 ppm. Secondary measures of acute smoking reinforcement and cue reactivity prior to quitting, and smoking reduction when trying to quit, were also assessed. RESULTS: No differences between fenofibrate versus placebo were found on days quit (means ± SEM of 1.8±0.3 vs. 1.9±0.3, respectively). Similarly, there were no differences in any of the secondary measures (all P > .20). CONCLUSIONS: Although higher dosing or other proliferator-activated receptor-alpha agonists may show efficacy, this study indicates that fenofibrate does not aid ability to stop smoking during a brief practice quit period in dependent smokers high in current quit interest.

The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response.

How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO(2) emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about $10.3 trillion (year 2005 US$) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to $9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change.

A case-control study of the environmental risk factors for narcolepsy.

BACKGROUND: Despite the acknowledged importance of environmental risk factors in the etiology of narcolepsy, there is little research on this topic. This study sought to fill this gap in the literature and assess the risk of stressors and infectious diseases using a case-control study. METHODS: Cases (n = 63) were recruited through the Stanford Center for Narcolepsy. All were HLA-DQB1*0602 positive, met conventional Multiple Sleep Latency Test criteria, and reported unambiguous cataplexy. Controls (n = 63) were nonrelated family members of cases and local community members. A self-administered questionnaire was used to assess the frequency and timing of possible risk factors. RESULTS: Of the infectious diseases examined, only flu infections and unexplained fevers carried a significant risk. Several of the stressors carried a significant risk including a major change in sleeping habits. When the timing of all risk factors was considered, exposure prior to puberty increased the risk for developing narcolepsy. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the importance of environmental risk factors in the etiology of narcolepsy. This highlights the need for further research on this aspect of narcolepsy so a complete understanding of a disorder that affects 1 in 2,000 individuals can emerge.

Effect of silver content on the structure and antibacterial activity of silver-doped phosphate-based glasses.

Staphylococcus aureus can cause a range of diseases, such as osteomyelitis, as well as colonize implanted medical devices. In most instances the organism forms biofilms that not only are resistant to the body's defense mechanisms but also display decreased susceptibilities to antibiotics. In the present study, we have examined the effect of increasing silver contents in phosphate-based glasses to prevent the formation of S. aureus biofilms. Silver was found to be an effective bactericidal agent against S. aureus biofilms, and the rate of silver ion release (0.42 to 1.22 microg x mm(-2) x h(-1)) from phosphate-based glass was found to account for the variation in its bactericidal effect. Analysis of biofilms by confocal microscopy indicated that they consisted of an upper layer of viable bacteria together with a layer ( approximately 20 microm) of nonviable cells on the glass surface. Our results showed that regardless of the silver contents in these glasses (10, 15, or 20 mol%) the silver exists in its +1 oxidation state, which is known to be a highly effective bactericidal agent compared to that of silver in other oxidation states (+2 or +3). Analysis of the glasses by (31)P nuclear magnetic resonance imaging and high-energy X-ray diffraction showed that it is the structural rearrangement of the phosphate network that is responsible for the variation in silver ion release and the associated bactericidal effectiveness. Thus, an understanding of the glass structure is important in interpreting the in vitro data and also has important clinical implications for the potential use of the phosphate-based glasses in orthopedic applications to deliver silver ions to combat S. aureus biofilm infections.

Controlled microchannelling in dense collagen scaffolds by soluble phosphate glass fibers.

A problem with tissue engineering scaffolds is maintaining seeded cell viability and function due to limitations of oxygen and nutrient transfer. An approach to maintain suitable oxygen concentrations throughout the scaffold would be to controllably incorporate microchannelling within these scaffolds. This study investigated the incorporation of unidirectionally aligned soluble phosphate based glass fibers (PGF) into dense collagen scaffolds. PGF are degradable, and their degradation can be controlled through their chemistry and dimensions. Plastic compression was used to produce composite scaffolds at three different weight percentage while maintaining greater than 80% resident cell viability. PGF-collagen scaffold composition was quantified through thermogravimetric analysis as well as being morphologically and mechanically characterized. PGF degradation was measured through ion chromatography, and channel formation was verified with ultrasound imaging and SEM. The free movement of coated microbubble agents confirmed the channels to be continuous in nature and of 30-40 microm diameter. These microchannels in dense native collagen matrices could play an important role in hypoxia/perfusion limitations and also in the transportation of nutrients and potentially forming blood vessels through dense implants.