Group sequential designs for clinical trials when the maximum sample size is uncertain.

Motivated by the experience of COVID-19 trials, we consider clinical trials in the setting of an emerging disease in which the uncertainty of natural disease course and potential treatment effects makes advance specification of a sample size challenging. One approach to such a challenge is to use a group sequential design to allow the trial to stop on the basis of interim analysis results as soon as a conclusion regarding the effectiveness of the treatment under investigation can be reached. As such a trial may be halted before a formal stopping boundary is reached, we consider the final analysis under such a scenario, proposing alternative methods for when the decision to halt the trial is made with or without knowledge of interim analysis results. We address the problems of ensuring that the type I error rate neither exceeds nor falls unnecessarily far below the nominal level. We also propose methods in which there is no maximum sample size, the trial continuing either until the stopping boundary is reached or it is decided to halt the trial.

Clinical trial results in context: comparison of baseline characteristics and outcomes of 38,510 RECOVERY trial participants versus a reference population of 346,271 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England.

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials are essential to reliably assess medical interventions. Nevertheless, interpretation of such studies, particularly when considering absolute effects, is enhanced by understanding how the trial population may differ from the populations it aims to represent. METHODS: We compared baseline characteristics and mortality of RECOVERY participants recruited in England (n = 38,510) with a reference population hospitalised with COVID-19 in England (n = 346,271) from March 2020 to November 2021. We used linked hospitalisation and mortality data for both cohorts to extract demographics, comorbidity/frailty scores, and crude and age- and sex-adjusted 28-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Demographics of RECOVERY participants were broadly similar to the reference population, but RECOVERY participants were younger (mean age [standard deviation]: RECOVERY 62.6 [15.3] vs reference 65.7 [18.5] years) and less frequently female (37% vs 45%). Comorbidity and frailty scores were lower in RECOVERY, but differences were attenuated after age stratification. Age- and sex-adjusted 28-day mortality declined over time but was similar between cohorts across the study period (RECOVERY 23.7% [95% confidence interval: 23.3-24.1%]; vs reference 24.8% [24.6-25.0%]), except during the first pandemic wave in the UK (March-May 2020) when adjusted mortality was lower in RECOVERY. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusted 28-day mortality in RECOVERY was similar to a nationwide reference population of patients admitted with COVID-19 in England during the same period but varied substantially over time in both cohorts. Therefore, the absolute effect estimates from RECOVERY were broadly applicable to the target population at the time but should be interpreted in the light of current mortality estimates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN50189673- Feb. 04, 2020, NCT04381936- May 11, 2020.

An open-label, randomized, non-inferiority trial of the efficacy and safety of ciprofloxacin versus an aminoglycoside + ciprofloxacin in the treatment of bubonic plague (IMASOY): study protocol for a randomized control trial-an update to the published protocol.

This article reports an update to the protocol of the IMASOY trial, which was prospectively registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04110340) in October 2019.

Expanded Access Programme for the use of tecovirimat for the treatment of monkeypox infection: A study protocol for an Expanded Access Programme.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox is a viral zoonotic disease commonly reported in humans in parts of Central and West Africa. This protocol is for an Expanded Access Programme (EAP) to be implemented in the Central African Republic, where Clade I monkeypox virus diseases is primarily responsible for most monkeypox infections. The objective of the programme is to provide patients with confirmed monkeypox with access to tecovirimat, a novel antiviral targeting orthopoxviruses, and collect data on clinical and virological outcomes of patients to inform future research. METHODS: The study will be conducted at participating hospitals in the Central African Republic. All patients who provide informed consent to enrol in the programme will receive tecovirimat. Patients will remain in hospital for the duration of treatment. Data on clinical signs and symptoms will be collected every day while the patient is hospitalised. Blood, throat and lesion samples will be collected at baseline and then on days 4, 8, 14 and 28. Patient outcomes will be assessed on Day 14 -end of treatment-and at Day 28. Adverse event and serious adverse event data will be collected from the point of consent until Day 28. DISCUSSION: This EAP is the first protocolised treatment programme in Clade I MPXV. The data generated under this protocol aims to describe the use of tecovirimat for Clade I disease in a monkeypox endemic region of Central Africa. It is hoped that this data can inform the definition of outcome measures used in future research and contribute to the academic literature around the use of tecovirimat for the treatment of monkeypox. The EAP also aims to bolster research capacity in the region in order for robust randomised controlled trials to take place for monkeypox and other diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: {2a & 2b}: ISRCTN43307947.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital with and without respiratory symptoms.

Background: COVID-19 is primarily known as a respiratory illness; however, many patients present to hospital without respiratory symptoms. The association between non-respiratory presentations of COVID-19 and outcomes remains unclear. We investigated risk factors and clinical outcomes in patients with no respiratory symptoms (NRS) and respiratory symptoms (RS) at hospital admission. Methods: This study describes clinical features, physiological parameters, and outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients, stratified by the presence or absence of respiratory symptoms at hospital admission. RS patients had one or more of: cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, runny nose or wheezing; while NRS patients did not. Results: Of 178,640 patients in the study, 86.4 % presented with RS, while 13.6 % had NRS. NRS patients were older (median age: NRS: 74 vs RS: 65) and less likely to be admitted to the ICU (NRS: 36.7 % vs RS: 37.5 %). NRS patients had a higher crude in-hospital case-fatality ratio (NRS 41.1 % vs. RS 32.0 %), but a lower risk of death after adjusting for confounders (HR 0.88 [0.83-0.93]). Conclusion: Approximately one in seven COVID-19 patients presented at hospital admission without respiratory symptoms. These patients were older, had lower ICU admission rates, and had a lower risk of in-hospital mortality after adjusting for confounders.

Interpretations of Studies on SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Post-acute COVID-19 Sequelae.

This article discusses causal interpretations of epidemiologic studies of the effects of vaccination on sequelae after acute severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. To date, researchers have tried to answer several different research questions on this topic. While some studies assessed the impact of postinfection vaccination on the presence of or recovery from post-acute coronavirus disease 2019 syndrome, others quantified the association between preinfection vaccination and postacute sequelae conditional on becoming infected. However, the latter analysis does not have a causal interpretation, except under the principal stratification framework-that is, this comparison can only be interpreted as causal for a nondiscernible stratum of the population. As the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 is now nearly entirely dominated by reinfections, including in vaccinated individuals, and possibly caused by different Omicron subvariants, it has become even more important to design studies on the effects of vaccination on postacute sequelae that address precise causal questions and quantify effects corresponding to implementable interventions.

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome.

Nipah virus disease: what can we do to improve patient care?

The year 2023 marked the 25th anniversary of the first detected outbreak of Nipah virus disease. Despite Nipah virus being a priority pathogen in the WHO Research and Development blueprint, the disease it causes still carries high mortality, unchanged since the first reported outbreaks. Although candidate vaccines for Nipah virus disease exist, developing new therapeutics has been underinvested. Nipah virus disease illustrates the typical market failure of medicine development for a high-consequence pathogen. The unpredictability of outbreaks and low number of infections affecting populations in low-income countries does not make an attractive business case for developing treatments for Nipah virus disease-a situation compounded by methodological challenges in clinical trial design. Nipah virus therapeutics development is not motivated by commercial interest. Therefore, we propose a regionally led, patient-centred, and public health-centred, end-to-end framework that articulates a public health vision and a roadmap for research, development, manufacturing, and access towards the goal of improving patient outcomes. This framework includes co-creating a regulatory-compliant, clinically meaningful, and context-specific clinical development plan and establishing quality standards in clinical care and research capabilities at sites where the disease occurs. The success of this approach will be measured by the availability and accessibility of improved Nipah virus treatments in affected communities and reduced mortality.