Seascape analysis reveals regional gene flow patterns among populations of a marine planktonic diatom.

We investigated the gene flow of the common marine diatom, Skeletonema marinoi, in Scandinavian waters and tested the null hypothesis of panmixia. Sediment samples were collected from the Danish Straits, Kattegat and Skagerrak. Individual strains were established from germinated resting stages. A total of 350 individuals were genotyped by eight microsatellite markers. Conventional F-statistics showed significant differentiation between the samples. We therefore investigated whether the genetic structure could be explained using genetic models based on isolation by distance (IBD) or by oceanographic connectivity. Patterns of oceanographic circulation are seasonally dependent and therefore we estimated how well local oceanographic connectivity explains gene flow month by month. We found no significant relationship between genetic differentiation and geographical distance. Instead, the genetic structure of this dominant marine primary producer is best explained by local oceanographic connectivity promoting gene flow in a primarily south to north direction throughout the year. Oceanographic data were consistent with the significant FST values between several pairs of samples. Because even a small amount of genetic exchange prevents the accumulation of genetic differences in F-statistics, we hypothesize that local retention at each sample site, possibly as resting stages, is an important component in explaining the observed genetic structure.

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.