A Repeat Pattern of Founder Events for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Alaska.

Alaska is a unique US state because of its large size, geographically disparate population density, and physical distance from the contiguous United States. Here, we describe a pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence across Alaska reflective of these differences. Using genomic data, we found that in Alaska, the Omicron sublineage BA.2.3 overtook BA.1.1 by the week of 27 February 2022, reaching 48.5% of sequenced cases. On the contrary, in the contiguous United States, BA.1.1 dominated cases for longer, eventually being displaced by BA.2 sublineages other than BA.2.3. BA.2.3 only reached a prevalence of 10.9% in the contiguous United States. Using phylogenetics, we found evidence of potential origins of the two major clades of BA.2.3 in Alaska and with logistic regression estimated how it emerged and spread throughout the state. The combined evidence is suggestive of founder events in Alaska and is reflective of how Alaska's unique dynamics influence the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.519 emergence in Alaska.

Alaska has the lowest population density in the United States (US) with a mix of urban centers and isolated rural communities. Alaska's distinct population dynamics compared to the contiguous US may have contributed to unique patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants observed in early 2021. Here we examined 2323 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Alaska and 278,635 from the contiguous US collected from December 2020 through June 2021 because of the notable emergence and spread of lineage B.1.1.519 in Alaska. We found that B.1.1.519 was consistently detected from late January through June of 2021 in Alaska with a peak prevalence in April of 77.9% unlike the rest of the US at 4.6%. The earlier emergence of B.1.1.519 coincided with a later peak of Alpha (B.1.1.7) compared to the contiguous US. We also observed differences in variant composition over time between the two most populated regions of Alaska and a modest increase in COVID-19 cases during the peak incidence of B.1.1.519. However, it is difficult to disentangle how social dynamics conflated changes in COVID-19 during this time. We suggest that the viral characteristics, such as amino acid substitutions in the spike protein, likely contributed to the unique spread of B.1.1.519 in Alaska.

A repeat pattern of founder events for SARS-CoV-2 variants in Alaska.

Alaska is a unique US state because of its large size, geographically disparate population density, and physical distance from the contiguous United States. Here, we describe a pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence across Alaska reflective of these differences. Using genomic data, we found that in Alaska the Omicron sublineage BA.2.3 overtook BA.1.1 by the week of 2022-02-27, reaching 48.5% of sequenced cases. On the contrary in the contiguous United States, BA.1.1 dominated cases for longer, eventually being displaced by BA.2 sublineages other than BA.2.3. BA.2.3 only reached a prevalence of 10.9% in the contiguous United States. Using phylogenetics, we found evidence of potential origins of the two major clades of BA.2.3 in Alaska and with logistic regression estimated how it emerged and spread throughout the state. The combined evidence is suggestive of founder events in Alaska and is reflective of how Alaska’s unique dynamics influence the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.