Detection and Assessment of a Large and Potentially Tsunamigenic Periglacial Landslide in Barry Arm, Alaska.

The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 × 106 m3) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis.

A Complete Map of Greenland Ice Velocity Derived from Satellite Data Collected over 20 Years.

While numerous maps of Greenland ice flow velocity exist, most have gaps in coverage and/or accuracy is limited. We processed a large volume of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat 8 imagery collected between 1995 and 2015 to produce a nearly complete map of ice flow velocity for Greenland at a far greater accuracy than most prior products. We evaluated the accuracy of this map by comparing it with a variety of measured and estimated velocities. For the slow-moving interior of the ice sheet, where estimates are determined from interferometric phase, the errors are ~2 m a-1 or better. For coastal areas, where estimates are determined entirely from speckle- or feature-tracking methods, errors are 2-3 m a-1, which is in good agreement with the estimated formal errors. Especially for the slow-moving majority of the ice sheet, this map provides an important source of data for numerous types of glaciological studies.

Seasonal to decadal variability in ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N = 230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000-2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modelled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r 2 = 0.59, p = 10-4) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r 2 = 0.79), which show a net retreat of > 400 km, or an average retreat of > 2 km at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.

Improved Multiple Matching Method for Observing Glacier Motion with Repeat Image Feature Tracking.

Repeat Image Feature Tracking (RIFT) is commonly used to measure glacier surface motion from pairs of images, most often utilizing normalized cross correlation (NCC). The Multiple-Image Multiple-Chip (MIMC) algorithm successfully employed redundant matching (i.e. repeating the matching process over each area using varying combinations of settings) to increase the matching success rate. Due to the large number of repeat calculations, however, the original MIMC algorithm was slow and still prone to failure in areas of high shearing flow. Here we present several major updates to the MIMC algorithm that increase both speed and matching success rate. First, we include additional redundant measurements by swapping the image order and matching direction; a process we term Quadramatching. Second, we utilize a priori ice velocity information to confine the NCC search space through a system we term dynamic linear constraint (DLC), which substantially reduces the computation time and increases the rate of successful matches. Additionally, we develop a novel post-processing algorithm, pseudosmoothing, to determine the most probable displacement. Our tests reveal the complimentary and multiplicative nature of these upgrades in their improvement in overall MIMC performance.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

A SAR Record of Early 21st Century Change in Greenland.

Glaciers in Greenland are changing rapidly. To better understand these changes, we have produced a series of seven synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) backscatter mosaics for seven winters during the period from 2000 to 2013. Six of the mosaics were created using RADARSAT Fine-Beam data and the seventh used ALOS PALSAR Fine-Beam Single-Polarization data. The RADARSAT mosaics are radiometrically calibrated and capture changes in the backscatter coefficient related to melt and other events, particularly the strong melting in the summer of 2012. Comparison of features in the ascending-orbit ALOS mosaic and the descending-orbit RADARSAT mosaics indicate that in areas of smooth to moderate topography their locations are consistent to within a few 10s of meters. The locations of features identifiable in the RADARAT mosaics, which were collected with the same imaging parameters, generally agree to within better than the 20-m posting of the data. With such geometric accuracy, these data establish a record of change in Greenland for the early part of the 21st Century, thus providing a baseline that can be compared with new radar and optical data sets.

Performance of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager for Mapping Ice Sheet Velocity.

Landsat imagery has long been used to measure glacier and ice sheet surface velocity, and this application has increased with increased length and accessibility of the archive. The radiometric characteristics of Landsat sensors, however, have limited these measurements generally to only fast-flowing glaciers with high levels of surface texture and imagery with high sun angles and cloud-free conditions, preventing wide-area velocity mapping at the scale achievable with synthetic aperture radar (SAR). The Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard the newly launched Landsat 8 features substantially improves radiometric performance compared to preceding sensors: enhancing performance of automated Repeat-Image Feature Tracking (RIFT) for mapping ice flow speed. In order to assess this improvement, we conduct a comparative study of OLI and the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) performance for measuring glacier velocity in a range of surface and atmospheric conditions. To isolate the effects of radiometric quantization and noise level, we construct a model for simulating ETM+ imagery from OLI and compare RIFT results derived from each. We find that a nonlinearity in the relationship between ETM+ and OLI radiances at higher brightness levels results in a particularly large improvement in RIFT performance over the low-textured interior of the ice sheets, as well as improved performance in adverse conditions such as low sun-angles and thin clouds. Additionally, the reduced noise level in OLI imagery results in fewer spurious motion vectors and improved RIFT performance in all conditions and surfaces. We conclude that OLI imagery should enable large-area ice sheet and glacier mapping so that its coverage is comparable to SAR, with a remaining limitation being image geolocation.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supraglacial lake drainage.

Surface meltwater that reaches the base of an ice sheet creates a mechanism for the rapid response of ice flow to climate change. The process whereby such a pathway is created through thick, cold ice has not, however, been previously observed. We describe the rapid (<2 hours) drainage of a large supraglacial lake down 980 meters through to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet initiated by water-driven fracture propagation evolving into moulin flow. Drainage coincided with increased seismicity, transient acceleration, ice-sheet uplift, and horizontal displacement. Subsidence and deceleration occurred over the subsequent 24 hours. The short-lived dynamic response suggests that an efficient drainage system dispersed the meltwater subglacially. The integrated effect of multiple lake drainages could explain the observed net regional summer ice speedup.

Seasonal speedup along the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

It has been widely hypothesized that a warmer climate in Greenland would increase the volume of lubricating surface meltwater reaching the ice-bedrock interface, accelerating ice flow and increasing mass loss. We have assembled a data set that provides a synoptic-scale view, spanning ice-sheet to outlet-glacier flow, with which to evaluate this hypothesis. On the ice sheet, these data reveal summer speedups (50 to 100%) consistent with, but somewhat larger than, earlier observations. The relative speedup of outlet glaciers, however, is far smaller (<15%). Furthermore, the dominant seasonal influence on Jakobshavn Isbrae's flow is the calving front's annual advance and retreat. With other effects producing outlet-glacier speedups an order of magnitude larger, seasonal melt's influence on ice flow is likely confined to those regions dominated by ice-sheet flow.

Rapid changes in ice discharge from Greenland outlet glaciers.

Using satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, we found major short-term variations in recent ice discharge and mass loss at two of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers. Their combined rate of mass loss doubled in less than a year in 2004 and then decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates, likely as a result of fast re-equilibration of calving-front geometry after retreat. Total mass loss is a fraction of concurrent gravity-derived estimates, pointing to an alternative source of loss and the need for high-resolution observations of outlet dynamics and glacier geometry for sea-level rise predictions.