Modulations of ocean-atmosphere interactions on squid abundance over Southwest Atlantic.

Anthropogenic shifts in seas are reshaping fishing trends, with significant implications for aquatic food sources throughout this century. Examining a 21-year abundance dataset of Argentine shortfin squids Illex argentinus paired with a regional oceanic analysis, we noted strong correlations between squid annual abundance and sea surface temperature (SST) in January and February and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from March to May in the Southwest Atlantic. A deeper analysis revealed combined ocean-atmosphere interactions, pinpointed as the primary mode in a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of SST. This pattern produced colder SST and amplified EKE in the surrounding seas, factors crucial for the unique life stages of squids. Future projections from the CMIP6 archive indicated that this ocean-atmosphere pattern, referred to as the Atlantic symmetric pattern, would persist in its cold SST phase, promoting increased squid abundance. However, rising SSTs due to global warming might counteract the abundance gains. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized link between squids and specific environmental conditions governed by broader ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Southwest Atlantic. Integrating these insights with seasonal and decadal projections can offer invaluable information to stakeholders in squid fisheries and marine conservation under a changing climate.

Tracking westerly wind directions over Europe since the middle Holocene.

The variability of the northern westerlies has been considered as one of the key elements for modern and past climate evolution. Their multiscale behavior and underlying control mechanisms, however, are incompletely understood, owing to the complex dynamics of Atlantic sea-level pressures. Here, we present a multi-annually resolved record of the westerly drift over the past 6,500 years from northern Italy. In combination with more than 20 other westerly-sensitive records, our results depict the non-stationary westerly-affected regions over mainland Europe on multi-decadal to multi-centennial time scales, showing that the direction of the westerlies has changed with respect to the migrations of the North Atlantic centers of action since the middle Holocene. Our findings suggest the crucial role of the migrations of the North Atlantic dipole in modulating the westerly-affected domain over Europe, possibly modulated by Atlantic Ocean variability.

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y.

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability.

Madden-Julian Oscillation Enhances Phytoplankton Biomass in the Maritime Continent.

In addition to monsoon-driven rainfall, the Maritime Continent (MC) is subject to heavy precipitation caused by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical convection-coupled circulation that propagates eastward from the Indian to the Pacific Ocean. This study shows that riverine runoff from MJO-driven rainfall in the western MC significantly enhances phytoplankton biomass not only in the coastal regions but as far as the nutrient-poor Banda Sea, located 1,000 km downstream of the riverine source. We present observational estimates of the chlorophyll-a concentration in the Banda Sea increasing by 20% over the winter average within an MJO life cycle. The enhancement of phytoplankton in the central Banda Sea is attributed to two coinciding MJO-triggered mechanisms: enhanced sediment loading and eastward advection of waters with high sediment and chlorophyll concentrations. Our results highlight an unexpected effect of MJO-driven rainfall on the downstream oceanic region. This finding has significant implications for the marine food chain and biogeochemical processes in the MC, given the increasing deforestation rate and projections that global warming will intensify both the frequency and strength of MJO-driven rainfall in the MC.

Extratropical Forcing Triggered the 2015 Madden-Julian Oscillation-El Niño Event.

In this paper, we report the triggering effect of extratropical perturbation on the onset of an atypical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and onset of the 2015-16 El Niño in March 2015. The MJO exhibited several unique characteristics: the effect of extratropical forcing, atypical genesis location and timing in the equatorial western Pacific, and the extremity of amplitudes in many aspects. The southward-penetrating northerly associated with the extratropical disturbances in the extratropical western North Pacific contributed to triggering the deep convection and westerly wind burst (WWB) and onset of the MJO over the anomalously warm tropical western Pacific in early March. The persisting strong WWB forced downwelling Kelvin wave-like oceanic perturbation that propagated eastward and led to the onset of the 2015-16 El Niño. The proposed novel extratropical forcing mechanism explaining the unique extratropics-MJO-El Niño association, based on both data diagnostics and numerical experiments, warrants further attention for a more detailed understanding of the onset of the MJO and its potential effect on El Niño.

Decadal phytoplankton dynamics in response to episodic climatic disturbances in a subtropical deep freshwater ecosystem.

Information of the decadal timescale effects of episodic climatic disturbances (i.e., typhoons) on phytoplankton in freshwater ecosystems have received less attention and fewer seasonal evaluations partly due to the lack of long-term time-series monitoring data in typhoon prevailing areas. Through field observations of a total 36 typhoon cases in a subtropical deep freshwater ecosystem in the period of 2005-2014, we quantified phytoplankton biomass, production and growth rate in response to meteorological and hydrological changes in the weeks before, during and after typhoons between summer and autumn, and also investigated the effects of typhoon characteristics on the aforementioned phytoplankton responses. The results showed that phytoplankton exposed to typhoon disturbances generally exhibited an increasing trend over the weeks before, during and after typhoons in summer but varied in autumn. The correlations and multivariate regressions showed different contributions of meteorological and hydrological variables to individual phytoplankton responses before, during and after typhoons between seasons. The post-typhoon weeks (i.e., within two weeks after a typhoon had passed) were especially important for the timeline of phytoplankton increases and with a detectable seasonal variation that the chlorophyll a concentration significantly increased in autumn whereas both primary production and growth rate were associated with significant changes in summer. Additionally, phytoplankton responses during the post-typhoon weeks were significantly different between discrete or continuous types of typhoon events. Our work illustrated the fact that typhoons did influence phytoplankton responses in the subtropical deep freshwater ecosystem and typhoon passages in summer and autumn affected the phytoplankton dynamics differently. Nevertheless, sustained and systematic monitoring in order to advance our understanding of the role of typhoons between seasons in the modulation of phytoplankton productivity and functioning is required because such episodic climatic disturbances are projected to have intense magnitude and inconsistent frequency under 21st century climate change.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.