Artificial Neural Networking Model for the Prediction of Early Occlusion of Bilateral Plastic Stent Placement for Inoperable Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether the back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model could be constructed to accurately in predicting early occlusion of bilateral plastic stent placement for inoperable hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCA). METHODS: A total of 288 patients from the An Hui provincial Hospital were randomly divided into the training cohort (80%) and the internal testing cohort (20%). The predictive accuracy of the BP-ANN for predicting early occlusion of bilateral plastic stent placement of inoperable HCA was measured by the area under the curve (AUC) on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The results were compared with those obtained using the conventional multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that cancer stage (P=0.005) and Bismuth stage (P=0.003) were independently and significantly associated with early stent occlusion. In the training cohort, BP-ANN had larger AUC than the multivariate logistic regression model (P=0.00049). In the internal testing cohort, the AUC of the BP-ANN had larger AUC than the multivariate logistic regression model (P=0.02142). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the BP-ANN model is a good predictive tool. It performed better than the conventional and commonly used statistical model in predicting early occlusion of bilateral plastic stent placement for inoperable HCA.

Analysis of risk factors for postoperative complication of repair of bile duct injury after laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Bile duct injury (BDI) after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC-BDI) is still a major problem. However, despite the many improvements in clinical management of patients undergoing repair, postoperative complications remain frequent and factors that increase the susceptibility to such adverse events remain unknown. AIM: To report on a large experience with laparoscopic cholecystectomy-associated bile duct injuries (LC-BDIs) and define predictive factors associated with postoperative complication. METHODS: A retrospective medical record review of 94 patients referred for the surgical management of major BDIs to our center during a 12-year period between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, was performed. Univariate statistical analysis and multivariate analysis were used to identify risk factors for postoperative complications. A nomogram was developed to predict postoperative complication, given associated risk factors, and bootstrap validation was performed. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, there is no factor significantly associated with short-term complication. There was a statistically significant relationship between type of repair and the risk of biliary strictures (p = 0.012). Other factors significantly associated with late biliary strictures were sepsis (p = 0.007) and bile leak (p = 0.003). In multivariate analysis, bile leak (p = 0.005), sepsis (p = 0.03), and type of repair (p = 0.028) were independently and significantly associated with long-term complication. The resulting nomogram demonstrated good accuracy in predicting long-term complication, with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index 0.7905. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that missed injuries that result in sepsis or bile leak as well as high injuries that require hepaticojejunostomy will result in a higher stricture rate after repair.

Association between CTLA-4 exon-1 +49A>G polymorphism and primary biliary cirrhosis risk: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: CTLA-4 exon-1 +49A>G polymorphisms have been reported to influence the risk for primary biliary cirrhosis in many studies; however, the results still remain controversial and ambiguous. The aim of this study was to determine more precise estimations for the relationship between CTLA-4 exon-1 +49A>G polymorphisms and the risk for primary biliary cirrhosis. METHODS: Electronic searches for all publications were conducted on associations between this variant and breast cancer in several databases through November 2010. Crude odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to estimate the strength of the association. Eight studies were identified including 2151 cases and 2214 controls. RESULTS: Overall, there were no significant associations between CTLA +49G>A polymorphism and primary biliary cirrhosis risk (codominant model: GA vs. AA OR=1.190, 95% CI=0.818-1.732; GG vs. AA OR=1.153, 95% CI=0.858-1.550; dominant model: OR=1.181, 95% CI=0.873-1.599; and recessive model: OR=1.148; 95% CI=0.903-1.459). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, a significantly increased risk was found for Asians (GG vs. AA OR=1.873; 95% CI=1.202-2.921) and recessive model (OR=1.758; 95% CI = 1.271-2.433). In the stratified analysis by control sources, significant association were observed in population-based studies (GA vs. AA OR=1.432; 95% CI=1.078-1.902). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that the CTLA-4 +49G>A polymorphism may be a risk factor for primary biliary cirrhosis in Asians.