The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030.

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world's food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on consumers' perceptions of genetically modified food.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has generated significant economic loss and an unprecedented challenge to people's livelihoods. Using household data collected in November 2020, this study shows that the COVID-19 outbreak has significantly affected consumers' perceptions and consumption of genetically modified (GM) food in China. Their perceptions and purchase intentions have turned more negative, and their actual purchase of GM food has decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak. The study's results also indicate that consumers with more knowledge of genetic modification technology are less likely to change their perceptions of GM food.

Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China.

Achieving food-system sustainability is a multidimensional challenge. In China, a doubling of crop production since 1990 has compromised other dimensions of sustainability1,2. Although the country is promoting various interventions to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impacts3, there is little understanding of whether crop switching can achieve more sustainable cropping systems and whether coordinated action is needed to avoid tradeoffs. Here we combine high-resolution data on crop-specific yields, harvested areas, environmental footprints and farmer incomes to first quantify the current state of crop-production sustainability. Under varying levels of inter-ministerial and central coordination, we perform spatial optimizations that redistribute crops to meet a suite of agricultural sustainable development targets. With a siloed approach-in which each government ministry seeks to improve a single sustainability outcome in isolation-crop switching could realize large individual benefits but produce tradeoffs for other dimensions and between regions. In cases of central coordination-in which tradeoffs are prevented-we find marked co-benefits for environmental-impact reductions (blue water (-4.5% to -18.5%), green water (-4.4% to -9.5%), greenhouse gases (GHGs) (-1.7% to -7.7%), fertilizers (-5.2% to -10.9%), pesticides (-4.3% to -10.8%)) and increased farmer incomes (+2.9% to +7.5%). These outcomes of centrally coordinated crop switching can contribute substantially (23-40% across dimensions) towards China's 2030 agricultural sustainable development targets and potentially produce global resource savings. This integrated approach can inform feasible targeted agricultural interventions that achieve sustainability co-benefits across several dimensions.

How online food delivery platforms contributed to the resilience of the urban food system in China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We use high-frequency data to quantify the nature and performance of online food delivery platforms during the COVID-19 pandemic in urban China, and to estimate the short- and long-term effects of lockdown and reopening measures. A staggered difference-in-differences (DID) estimation strategy and event study approach are used to identify the effects of lockdown and reopening measures on the performance of online food delivery platforms and restaurants. The results indicate that some restaurants continued to operate and offer online food delivery while lockdowns were in effect. Both the number of operating restaurants and their online food delivery services rebounded and experienced further growth after lockdowns were lifted. The adjustment path of the online food delivery business following the implementation of lockdowns differed from the adjustment path following the lifting of lockdowns. The lockdown and reopening measures did not affect all types of restaurant/cuisine equally. We also examine possible impact mechanisms of lockdown measures on online food delivery and restaurants, and conduct robustness checks to confirm the stability of the main findings. This study contributes to the existing literature by confirming the positive contribution of online food delivery to the resilience of urban food systems in response to unexpected external shocks. Our results have implications for the design of policies to guarantee food supply and help urban food systems adapt to unexpected shocks.

Ecosystem services valuation in China: A meta-analysis.

Although the number of studies on ecosystem service value (ESV) has steadily increased, large variations and inconsistent patterns in the estimated results have motivated us to systematically explore the factors underlying such discrepancies. Therefore, this study aims to explore the role of different ecosystems, ESs, valuation methods, and economic development in the ESV by employing a meta-analysis of valuation research conducted on China's ES based on 3356 observations from 140 studies. The results show that wetlands ecosystem has the highest value among the seven major ecosystems, and regulation of water flows service is more valuable than the other services. We also provide a matrix of monetary values for different categories of ecosystems and their services, which can be used as a quick tool to predict ESVs in China and assess the value changes caused by land-use changes. We find that the ESVs estimated following the equivalent factor method are different from those estimated by the other methods, indicating that researchers should be very careful when selecting valuation methods for evaluating ESs. The economic development level has different impacts on different ESs, that is, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has a high, positive correlation with the recreational service value, but has no correlation with the habitat service value.

Large spatial variation and stagnation of cropland gross primary production increases the challenges of sustainable grain production and food security in China.

Sustainable crop grain production and food security is a grand societal challenge. Substantial investments in China's agriculture have been made in the past decades, but our knowledge on cropland gross primary production in China remains limited. Here we analyzed gross primary production (GPP), solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), terrestrial water storage, crop grain production, and agricultural investment and policy during 2000-2018. We found that based on croplands in 2000, approximately 52 × 106 ha (~37%) had continuous increasing trends in GPP during 2000-2018, which were mainly located in northern China. GPP for 63% of croplands was stagnant, declined, or had no significant change. At the national scale, annual cropland GPP increased during 2000-2008 but became stagnant in 2009-2018, which was inconsistent with the interannual trend in the crop grain production data for 2009-2018. The spatial mismatch between crop production and water availability became worse. The major grain exporting provinces, mostly located in water-stressed regions, experienced increased water resource constraints, which posed a challenge for sustainable grain production. The stagnant cropland GPP and increasing water resource constraints highlight the urgent need for sustainable management for crop production and food security in China.

Grassland ecological compensation policy in China improves grassland quality and increases herders' income.

Many countries have undertaken large and high-profile payment-for-ecosystem-services (PES) programs to sustain the use of their natural resources. Nevertheless, few studies have comprehensively examined the impacts of existing PES programs. Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) is one of the few pastorally focused PES programs with large investments and long duration, which aim to improve grassland quality and increase herder income. Here we present empirical evidence of the effects of GECP on grassland quality and herder income. Through a thorough and in-depth econometric analysis of remote sensing and household survey data, we find that, although GECP improves grassland quality (albeit to only a small extent) and has a large positive effect on income, it exacerbates existing income inequality among herders within their local communities. The analysis demonstrates that the program has induced herders to change their livestock production behavior. Heterogeneity analysis emphasizes the importance of making sure the programs are flexible and are adapted to local resource circumstances.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems.

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood. Objectives: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments. Methods: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed. Results and conclusion: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes. Significance: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.

Multidecadal, county-level analysis of the effects of land use, Bt cotton, and weather on cotton pests in China.

Long-term changes in land use, climate, and agricultural technologies may affect pest severity and management. The influences of these major drivers can only be identified by analyzing long-term data. This study examines panel data on land use, adoption of genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insect-resistant cotton, weather, pest severity, and insecticide use on three major cotton pests for 51 counties in China during 1991-2015. Bt cotton had pervasive effects on the whole pest complex in cotton and its management. Adoption resulted in major reductions in insecticide use for bollworm control. The resulting restoration of aphid biological control decreased aphid severity. However, mirid bugs, which have few effective natural enemies in cotton, increased in severity with warming May and reduced insecticide spraying against bollworm. The effects of landscape on pest severity were pest specific. The severity of cotton aphid and mirid bugs decreased with higher land use diversity, but the severity of highly polyphagous cotton bollworm was unrelated to land use diversity. Shares of forest, water body, and unused land area were negatively associated with the severity of mirid bugs, whereas cotton bollworm responded positively to the shares of water body and unused land area. Farmers sprayed insecticides at mild infestation levels and responded aggressively to severe bollworm outbreaks. Findings support the usefulness of Bt-based plant resistance as a component of integrated pest management (IPM) but highlight the potential for unexpected outcomes resulting from agro-ecosystem feedback loops as well as the importance of climate.

A comparison of the effects of agricultural pesticide uses on peripheral nerve conduction in China.

Evidence on the adverse effects of agricultural pesticide use by farmers under the actual field conditions on their peripheral nerve conduction in China is limited. This study was to investigate the association of agricultural pesticide use with the abnormalities of farmers' peripheral nerve conduction based on two rounds of conventional nerve conduction studies. The level of pesticide exposure was assessed by measuring total amount of pesticides used by farmers in 2012. The logistic and negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a cohort study of 218 farmers. Results show that agricultural use of neither glyphosate nor non-glyphosate herbicides was not found to induce the abnormalities of farmers' peripheral nerve conduction. However, agricultural use of organophosphorus compounds was significantly associated with increased risk of demylination disease of peripheral nerve conduction described by the reduced velocity. Moreover, the use of organonitrogen compounds by farmers would not only increase risk of demylination disease but axonal damages described by the reduced amplitude. By contrast, agricultural uses of organosulfur and pyrethroid compounds would not induce the abnormalities of farmers' peripheral nerve conduction. The findings demonstrated the importance of developing health-friendly pesticides to replace organophosphorus and organonitrogen insecticides and fungicides in China.

Health effect of agricultural pesticide use in China: implications for the development of GM crops.

It is notable that the adoption of GM glyphosate-tolerant crops increases glyphosate use but reduces non-glyphosate herbicide use; and adoption of GM insect-resistant crops significantly reduces insecticide use. While the health hazard of pesticide use has been well documented, little literature evaluates the health effects of different pesticides related to GM crops in an integrated framework. This study aims to associate the uses of different pesticides related to GM crops with the blood chemistry panel and peripheral nerve conduction of Chinese farmers. Pesticides used by farmers were recorded and classified as glyphosate, non-glyphosate herbicides, chemical lepidopteran insecticides, biological lepidopteran insecticides, non-lepidopteran insecticides and fungicides. The multivariate regression results show that none of the examined 35 health indicators was associated with glyphosate use, while the use of non-glyphosate herbicides was likely to induce renal dysfunction and decrease of serum folic acid. The use of chemical lepidopteran insecticides might be associated with hepatic dysfunction, serum glucose elevation, inflammation and even severe nerve damage. In this context, if GM crops are adopted, the alterations in pesticide use may benefit farmer health in China and globe, which has positive implications for the development of GM crops.

Wage Growth, Landholding, and Mechanization in Chinese Agriculture.

This paper aims to examine the dynamics of land transactions, machine investments, and the demand for machine services using farm panel data from China. Recently, China's agriculture has experienced a large expansion of machine rentals and machine services provided by specialized agents, which has contributed to mechanization of agricultural production. On the other hand, the empirical results show that an increase in non-agricultural wage rates leads to expansion of self-cultivated land size. A rise in the proportion of non-agricultural income or the migration rate also increases the size of self-cultivated land. Interestingly, however, relatively educated farm households decrease the size of self-cultivated land, which suggests that relatively less educated farmers tend to specialize in farming. The demand for machine services has also increased if agricultural wage and migration rate increased over time, especially among relatively large farms. The results on crop income also support complementarities between rented-in land and machine services (demanded), which implies that scale economies are arising in Chinese agriculture with mechanization and active land rental markets.

Addressing China's grand challenge of achieving food security while ensuring environmental sustainability.

China's increasingly urbanized and wealthy population is driving a growing and changing demand for food, which might not be met without significant increase in agricultural productivity and sustainable use of natural resources. Given the past relationship between lack of access to affordable food and political instability, food security has to be given a high priority on national political agendas in the context of globalization. The drive for increased food production has had a significant impact on the environment, and the deterioration in ecosystem quality due to historic and current levels of pollution will potentially compromise the food production system in China. We discuss the grand challenges of not only producing more food but also producing it sustainably and without environmental degradation. In addressing these challenges, food production should be considered as part of an environmental system (soil, air, water, and biodiversity) and not independent from it. It is imperative that new ways of meeting the demand for food are developed while safeguarding the natural resources upon which food production is based. We present a holistic approach to both science and policy to ensure future food security while embracing the ambition of achieving environmental sustainability in China. It is a unique opportunity for China to be a role model as a new global player, especially for other emerging economies.

Long- and short-term health effects of pesticide exposure: a cohort study from China.

Pesticides are extensively used by farmers in China. However, the effects of pesticides on farmers' health have not yet been systematically studied. This study evaluated the effects of pesticides exposure on hematological and neurological indicators over 3 years and 10 days respectively. A cohort of 246 farmers was randomly selected from 3 provinces (Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hebei) in China. Two rounds of health investigations, including blood tests and neurological examinations, were conducted by medical doctors before and after the crop season in 2012. The data on pesticide use in 2009-2011 were collected retrospectively via face-to-face interviews and the 2012 data were collected from personal records maintained by participants prospectively. Ordinary least square (OLS), Probit, and fixed effect models were used to evaluate the relationship between pesticides exposure frequency and the health indicators. Long-term pesticide exposure was found to be associated with increased abnormality of nerve conductions, especially in sensory nerves. It also affected a wide spectrum of health indicators based on blood tests and decreased the tibial nerve compound muscle action potential amplitudes. Short-term health effects included alterations in complete blood count, hepatic and renal functions, and nerve conduction velocities and amplitudes. However, these effects could not be detected after 3 days following pesticide exposure. Overall, our results demonstrate that pesticide exposure adversely affects blood cells, the liver, and the peripheral nervous system. Future studies are needed to elucidate the specific effects of each pesticide and the mechanisms of these effects.

Impact of insect-resistant GM rice on pesticide use and farmers' health in China.

The economic benefits of insect-resistant genetically modified (GM) crops have been well documented, but the impact of such crops and the consequent reduction in pesticide use on farmers' health remains largely unknown. Through the analysis of the data collected from the physical examination from farmers in China, we show that GM rice significantly reduces pesticide use and the resultant not only visible but also invisible adverse effects on farmers' neurological, hematological, and electrolyte system. Hence, the commercialization of GM rice is expected to improve the health of farmers in developing countries, where pesticide application is necessary to mitigate crop loss.

Does expression of Bt toxin matter in farmer's pesticide use?

Despite the widespread adoption of Bt cotton, farmers still spray excessive pesticides in their cotton fields. In contrast to scientists who always use high quality seeds in the laboratory and/or experimental fields, farmers may plant low quality seeds with a low expression of Bt toxin. How does the expression of Bt toxin influence farmers' pesticide use? On the basis of a plot-level survey and laboratory test data, this study shows that pesticide use on one cotton plot is influenced not only by the expression of Bt crops in this plot, but also by the average expression in the village in the early stage of the cotton growing season. In other words, high expression of Bt toxin benefits not only the farmers who plant the varieties but also all the other villagers.