Evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis is associated with prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: No data are available about the prediction of long-term survival using repeated noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of 3-year liver stiffness measurement (LSM), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) evolution in CHC. CHC patients with two LSM (1,000-1,500 days interval) were prospectively included. Blood fibrosis tests APRI and FIB-4 were calculated the day of baseline (bLSM) and follow-up (fLSM) LSM. Evolution of fibrosis tests was expressed as delta: (follow-up-baseline results)/duration. Date and cause of death were recorded during follow-up that started the day of fLSM. In all, 1,025 patients were included. Median follow-up after fLSM was 38.0 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 27.7-46.1) during which 35 patients died (14 liver-related death) and seven had liver transplantation. Prognostic accuracy (Harrell C-index) of multivariate models including baseline and delta results was not significantly different between LSM and FIB-4 (P ≥ 0.24), whereas FIB-4 provided more accurate prognostic models than APRI (P = 0.03). By multivariate analysis including LSM variables, overall survival was independently predicted by bLSM, delta (dLSM), and sustained virological response (SVR). Prognosis was excellent in patients having bLSM <7 kPa, SVR, or no increase (<1 kPa/year) in 7-14 kPa bLSM. Prognosis was significantly impaired in patients with an increase (≥ 1 kPa/year) in 7-14 kPa bLSM, or decrease (≤ 0 kPa/year) in ≥ 14 kPa bLSM (P = 0.949 between these two groups). Patients with an increase (>0 kPa/year) in ≥ 14 kPa bLSM had the worst prognosis. Baseline and delta FIB-4 also identified patient subgroups with significantly different prognosis. CONCLUSION: Three-year evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis has a strong prognostic value in CHC patients. These tests should be repeated to monitor patients and predict their outcome.

Ribavirin exposure after the first dose is predictive of sustained virological response in chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: The impact of ribavirin exposure on sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis C is unknown. Preliminary studies showed marked inter-individual variability of ribavirin concentrations despite dose adjustment for body weight (BW) and suggested there was a correlation between single time point concentrations and SVR. None of them evaluated the global exposure to ribavirin. This study was conducted to determine whether early ribavirin global exposure is related with SVR. An exploratory pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) study was conducted in genotype 1 hepatitis C patients treated with peginterferon alfa-2a and ribavirin (dose-adjusted for BW) for 12 weeks, to which amantadine was added for the following 36 weeks. Full and abbreviated ribavirin area under the concentration time curves (AUC(0-12h), AUC(0-4h)) were derived from plasma concentration profiles at day 0 (D0), week 12 (W12), W12 + 1 day, and W24. Virological follow-up was performed at D0 (0, 12, and 24 hours), W2, W4, W6, and monthly until W72 (TaqMan polymerase chain reaction, cut-off 15 international units/mL). Twenty-eight patients were enrolled in the study and 24 completed it. Patients with a SVR had a significantly higher D0 AUC(0-12h) (3695 [1571-6916] versus 2937 [1266-4913] microg/hour/L, P = 0.03) and D0 AUC(0-4h) (2010 [615-3175] versus 1340 [622-2246] microg/hour/L, P = 0.03). Patients with D0 AUCs above the cut-off values defined by receiver operating characteristic curves (3014 microg/hour/L and 1755 microg/hour/L for AUC(0-12h) and AUC(0-4h), respectively) had a significantly better chance of achieving an SVR than patients with AUCs under the thresholds (odds ratio = 16.0, 95% confidence interval 1.54-166.6, P = 0.02 and odds ratio = 8.9, 95% confidence interval, 1.4-56.6; P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Ribavirin exposure at D0 is significantly related to SVR. To our knowledge, this is the first study to give an early pharmacokinetic predictor of SVR. We propose a minimum AUC(0-4h) threshold of 1755 microg/hour/L at D0 as a target for ribavirin dose adjustment.